2020 Jan 13, 3:29pm
152 views 10 comments
If he won Iowa, the party might unite behind an Anybody But Bernie candidate.In 2019, Sanders raised an eye-popping $100 million. The grassroots he cultivated in Iowa and New Hampshire four years ago have vaulted him into first place in both states in the RealClearPolitics average of all polls.A variation of the Sanders campaign was just tried in Britain, where Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn ran on an unabashedly left-wing manifesto that included government-funded middle-class benefits ranging from free broadband to subsidized commuter-train tickets. Corbyn, a 70-year-old whose scratchy personality resembles that of Sanders, did well with young voters, winning 55 percent of voters under age 30, compared with only 22 percent for the opposition Conservatives. But among older voters he bombed, winning only 35 percent of those between ages 40 and 50. Among voters over 70, his party won a ghastly 14 percent.But what counts in becoming a party leader or nominee is not how you do with voters in general but with your party’s base. Corbyn had a fanatical following within the “loony Left” portions of his party, and that enabled him to become leader in a party-membership election in 2015.Similarly, Sanders has a fan base with college students, public-sector union members, and aging hippies. In 2016, that coalition was enough to win him 50 percent of the Iowa-caucus vote against Hillary Clinton. He has retained about half of that running in Iowa’s current multi-candidate field.Nate Silver, the political analyst at FiveThirtyEight, has developed a model of the Democratic race that forecasts that, should Joe Biden lose Iowa, he has only a 20 percent chance of a delegate majority, with Sanders’s odds of becoming the nominee going up to 40 percent.That prospect sends shivers down the spine of establishment Democrats. “We all know the opposition research that Trump could throw against Bernie,” one Democratic pollster told me. “It runs from his rigid left-wing voting record to the fact that he was so delusional as to honeymoon in the Soviet Union in the year before the Berlin Wall fell and when it was obvious the system was evil.”Establishment Democrats believe that they still have a good chance to stop Bernie even if he does win Iowa. They say the party might come together under an Anybody But Bernie candidate. They also point out that under Silver’s model scenario where Bernie wins Iowa, there would be a decent chance that no one would come to the convention with a majority of delegates. In that event, on the second ballot, a group of party elders, or superdelegates, would be allowed to vote, and Bernie would likely be their last choice.“The GOP establishment couldn’t stop Trump from winning the nomination in 2016, but they have different rules,” a former aide to President Obama told me in an interview. “We would be able to stop Bernie, but then we might have a different problem: convincing his angry supporters not to stay home in the race against Trump.”
White army or Red army, comrade?
willywonka saysWhite army or Red army, comrade?Don't you mean red or blue? Who ever decided that the dems get to be blue any way?But I do like red, just not in my cars or motorcycles.
If Bernie is the Nominee, then there's no doubt Trump wins Election.
Bernie Sanders is literally the most deeply honest human being I've ever met.He's honest when it costs him politically.He did not and would not say a woman cannot be President. He has said clearly today that he did not say it. He has said the opposite since I was a child.— Shaun King (@shaunking) January 14, 2020
Bernie Sanders is literally the most deeply honest human being I've ever met.He's honest when it costs him politically.He did not and would not say a woman cannot be President. He has said clearly today that he did not say it. He has said the opposite since I was a child.
I think willywonka was referring to the Russian 1917 situation, where "white" was the Republic. "red" was the commies.