#covid-19Dear: Your Saturday morning newspaper...things are not nice right now due to Covid-19. Major conferences have been cancelled including a summit for Asian leaders that President Trump was supposed to host here. Amazon has banned employees from flying on domestic and international flights. I'm sure that a lot of other companies all over the world have quietly done the same. We could see travel bans here including South Korea, Italy, and Iran. The only hopeful note here is that the Israelis say that they have developed a vaccine against Covid-19: https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/COVID-19-coronavirus-vaccine-Israel-15093659.php The Israelis have an incredible pharmaceutical industry. Let us all hope for the best. One disturbing model has emerged. This is just a theoretical exercise, but it is food for thought. As of 2017 we had an estimated 7.53 billion people on earth. As of 2020, I have seen estimates of around 7.8 billion people. In the Coronavirus model that I have seen, some 33.33% of the world's population will be infected. This means that an estimated 2.6 billion people will be infected. The projected fatality rate is 2% of those infected. The number of projected fatalities is 52 million. On a personal level, everyone needs to practice good hygiene including washing hands frequently and cleaning areas where you work and live. Avoid crowds and people coughing. Do not travel unless it is an emergency of the highest level. If you must travel, look at buying a seat on a corporate jet as opposed to a commercial airliner. Those of you who are medical professionals are especially at risk. The world economy will sink into a recession. You will need to be defensive. Stay invested in cash in a hard currency. Own some gold. Take a look at an ETF that I love called SWAN. It is designed to protect you in the event of Black Swan Event. This epidemic is such an event.
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Your Saturday morning newspaper...things are not nice right now due to Covid-19. Major conferences have been cancelled including a summit for Asian leaders that President Trump was supposed to host here. Amazon has banned employees from flying on domestic and international flights. I'm sure that a lot of other companies all over the world have quietly done the same. We could see travel bans here including South Korea, Italy, and Iran.
The only hopeful note here is that the Israelis say that they have developed a vaccine against Covid-19:
https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/COVID-19-coronavirus-vaccine-Israel-15093659.php
The Israelis have an incredible pharmaceutical industry. Let us all hope for the best.
One disturbing model has emerged. This is just a theoretical exercise, but it is food for thought. As of 2017 we had an estimated 7.53 billion people on earth. As of 2020, I have seen estimates of around 7.8 billion people. In the Coronavirus model that I have seen, some 33.33% of the world's population will be infected. This means that an estimated 2.6 billion people will be infected. The projected fatality rate is 2% of those infected. The number of projected fatalities is 52 million.
On a personal level, everyone needs to practice good hygiene including washing hands frequently and cleaning areas where you work and live. Avoid crowds and people coughing. Do not travel unless it is an emergency of the highest level. If you must travel, look at buying a seat on a corporate jet as opposed to a commercial airliner. Those of you who are medical professionals are especially at risk.
The world economy will sink into a recession. You will need to be defensive. Stay invested in cash in a hard currency. Own some gold. Take a look at an ETF that I love called SWAN. It is designed to protect you in the event of Black Swan Event. This epidemic is such an event.
These are trying times!
Be careful out there!