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I've not plotted a log-log plot, which forces a line. This is a log vs time plot, which would exaggerate any positive or negative shift in the rate of change of deaths. We should be seeing a slight inflection downward in the US if even the rate of increase were leveling and we're not (even Italy and Spain, both with parabolic increases in death on a straight plot, have evident downturns on their log vs time plots).
"LOL"! OMG.
Look, those without antibodies are not considered cured because this is the group known to relapse. Those with antibodies are medically useful (and their antibodies are indeed being used to treat COVID patients). You know so very little for one so enthusiastic.
goofus says"LOL"! OMG.
Look, those without antibodies are not considered cured because this is the group known to relapse. Those with antibodies are medically useful (and their antibodies are indeed being used to treat COVID patients). You know so very little for one so enthusiastic.
You are once again wrong, and showing your ignorance on the basic medical facts. Those so-called "relapse" is actually indicative that there might be different viruses running around. You can get flu last year, and get flu this year, not due to "relapse" but due to different types of flu infected you.
You are once again wrong, and showing your ignorance on the basic medical facts. Those so-called "relapse" is actually indicative that there might be different viruses running around. You can get flu last year, and get flu this year, not due to "relapse" but due to different types of flu infected you.
OK, Reality. We'll just agree to disagree on "reality."
That's nothing to disagree. It's the basics of human immunology.
Reality says
That's nothing to disagree. It's the basics of human immunology.
Once again, with prejudice:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/19/coronavirus-after-2000-deaths-can-you-get-virus-again/4804905002/
With no end to the outbreak in sight, health officials grapple with the issue of reinfection – whether people can "catch" the virus again.
Li QinGyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at China Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing, said a protective antibody is generated in those who are infected.
"However, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long," Li said. "For many patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of relapse."
If in fact it escaped from a lab and has an HIV-like insertion (retracted Indian paper from January), then perhaps it responds in atypical ways. One cannot say at this point, particularly not a "first year immunology student" (c.f. --?)
HIV replicates very slowly and spreads only through blood on blood contact. Maybe it has or has not a very small component of it, but it's overall a totally different virus.
If in fact it escaped from a lab and has an HIV-like insertion (retracted Indian paper from January), then perhaps it responds in atypical ways. One cannot say at this point, particularly not a "first year immunology student" (c.f. --?)
There's so much misinformation here I don't know where to start.
The models Fauci is referring to are known. The 100k to 200k number is only through the end of August while assuming continued social distancing. Following that, they will have to either continue distancing or have a very successful testing and containment strategy for a year until vaccines are approved, or else it'll be another round on the 100k roller coaster.
ThreeBays saysThere's so much misinformation here I don't know where to start.
The models Fauci is referring to are known. The 100k to 200k number is only through the end of August while assuming continued social distancing. Following that, they will have to either continue distancing or have a very successful testing and containment strategy for a year until vaccines are approved, or else it'll be another round on the 100k roller coaster.
LOL! Are you not aware that the flu/cold/respiratory disease season is in the winter months? Are you not aware that Corona Virus is an RNA virus prone to mutation? Why don't we just lock all those who want and enjoy lock-down into basements and never let them see any UV . . . they will all die of respiratory disease as they wish.
Reality saysLOL! Are you not aware that the flu/cold/respiratory infectious disease season is in the winter / low-UV months? Are you not aware that Corona Virus is an RNA virus prone to mutation? Why don't we just lock all those who want and enjoy lock-downs into basements and never let them see any UV . . . they will all die of respiratory infectious disease as they wish.
Yeah, it's an RNA virus prone to mutation which makes herd immunity an unreliable strategy. We might get 60% ill from it, and not stop it. Like with the flu, Coronavirus will likely require annual vaccination.
The issue right now is that it's on top of cold and flu season. If you'd take away all the cold and flus for this season the system would be able to handle it, but on top of it, many counties/states run out of hospital beds, workers and equipment.
Reality doesn't understand
LOL! You are indeed a medical ignoramus!
mell saysThe issue right now is that it's on top of cold and flu season. If you'd take away all the cold and flus for this season the system would be able to handle it, but on top of it, many counties/states run out of hospital beds, workers and equipment.
It's not clear whether Covid-19 is "on top of" or "part of" cold and flu. Italy, the most severe case among countries that we have relatively reliable data, is a country of 60+ million population; that translates to about 600k deaths a year, or close to 2000 per day, and due to the heavy toll of flu and cold it was common for Italy to see 3000+ deaths per day in winter months in years past. At this point, the highest daily Covid-19 death count in Italy has been 900+ deaths, and Italian number is already leveled and turning down, not exactly higher than what the usual cold and flu caused in years past. What is the total death count? Until we ...
The extreme measures—now known as social distancing, which is being called for by global health agencies to mitigate the spread of the novel coronavirus—kept per capita flu-related deaths in St. Louis to less than half of those in Philadelphia.
not having any antibiotic effective against the virus
Um, antibiotics are only effective against bacteria not viruses, so no virus has an antibiotic effective against it.
Right, it's not entirely clear which virus/illness occupies the most hospital beds, but that doesn't matter for the outcome of overloaded hospitals. If in fact CV is that contagious the social distancing makes sense, the total lockdowns are too drastic but can be easily "justified" with the hospital overload (no matter which microbe is more responsible).
Reality saysnot having any antibiotic effective against the virus
Um, antibiotics are only effective against bacteria not viruses, so no virus has an antibiotic effective against it.
Doesn't matter. All the antibiotics have probably been hoarded up already.
Here's a 300+% increase during one week.
www.youtube.com/embed/ZCr3ns1yL3Q
The only tools that hospitals have are the ventilator and intubation; the survival rate of those are less than 10%!
False, the survival is around 50%.
Booger saysDoesn't matter. All the antibiotics have probably been hoarded up already.
What part of "antibiotics are only effective against bacteria" did you not understand?
Patrick saysActually, the weird thing about azithromycin is that it seems to have some anti-viral effects even though it was designed to work against bacteria.
I think it's just that viral respiratory infections also open the door to secondary bacterial pneumonia infection, so azithromycin as well as other broad spectrum antibiotics are indicated.
Your numbers are off by 10x. Flu has a fatality around 0.1% which would be 60k deaths a year assuming it got everybody ill which it doesn't.
Where are you getting that? The study published in TheLancet with sampling size of 190+ is indicating survival rate of 3-5%! for ventilators and intubation.
Oxygen therapy can be done at home, and likely done much safer at home when there is a contagious disease running rampant in the hospitals
Majority of Covid-19 get put on intubation from developing ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome). Studies put the mortality rate at 36% to 52%. Modelers like Imperial College used 50% as the figure for survival for those entering critical condition.
Covid-19 seems to kill more in the old, and in men than women. Not great for Republicans.
socal2 saysKilling most of the people in big Progressive cities and states like New York and Washington. Not great for Democrats or their arguments of trying to convince people into cities, relying on mass transit and government.
So probably a good idea to keep this illness contained, ey?
We passed 3000 dead in the US today. More than 9/11.
Uh, no. More people voted for her than voted for Trump. The Electoral College rejected her, not "the people".
Reality saysBergamo is a city of 120k, with likely only one burner topping out at 25 bodies to burn per day; the sampling size was way too small. Bergamo is way out in the far ex-burbs of Milan at the foothill and facing water, could be a retirement community.. The same thing is not happening in the nearest metro Milan, pop about 5mil.
Not sure why we should be comparing to the mortality of the entire population given that less than 0.0017 of the population is confirmed infected.
Now Birx is saying 100K to 200K is the best case scenario if people follow the orders, but could be worse because some douchebags aren't following them.
https://people.com/crime/fla-pastor-arrested-after-hundreds-congregate-for-church-during-coronavirus-outbreak/
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Wait, 3 percent of 1 percent?
Yes, 100 times smaller than 3 percent.
Say 100,000 die out of 300M people (actually, the population is even larger than that). That's 0.0003.
So, since 0.0086 of the US dies every year on average, this could bump up the US death rate by 3 / 86 = 3.5% this year.
Except not it wouldn't even be that much, because a large fraction of those who die weren't going to make it through a normal 2020 anyway.
It's still not at all clear that this was worth imploding the economy for. Remember that 81,000 died of the flu in 2018 and no one even blinked.