9
0

Coronavirus toll could be up to 0.0003 of the US population!


 invite response                
2020 Mar 29, 9:38pm   16,791 views  376 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

PANIC!

Wait, 3 percent of 1 percent?

Yes, 100 times smaller than 3 percent.

Say 100,000 die out of 300M people (actually, the population is even larger than that). That's 0.0003.

So, since 0.0086 of the US dies every year on average, this could bump up the US death rate by 3 / 86 = 3.5% this year.

Except not it wouldn't even be that much, because a large fraction of those who die weren't going to make it through a normal 2020 anyway.

It's still not at all clear that this was worth imploding the economy for. Remember that 81,000 died of the flu in 2018 and no one even blinked.

Comments 1 - 40 of 376       Last »     Search these comments

1   JimSpatzenfeld   2020 Mar 29, 10:24pm  

100,000 to 200,000 is the estimate WITH an imploded economy.
If we had not killed the economy, and kept going as usual, the estimate was 1-2 Million deaths.
So killing the economy is estimated to save between 900,000 to 1,800,000 lives.
Might have been worth it.
2   Patrick   2020 Mar 29, 11:03pm  

JimSpatzenfeld says
If we had not killed the economy, and kept going as usual, the estimate was 1-2 Million deaths.


No.

Actual death rate is about 0.1% of those infected. Remember that upwards of 50% of the infected never even show symptoms. Even if everyone in the US got infected, that would be on the order of 300,000 people.

But not everyone is going to get infected even with no social distancing. Maybe half. Now we're at 150,000 people.

And an intact economy.

Remember that 81,000 died of the flu in 2018 and it was barely in the press.
3   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Mar 29, 11:47pm  

Patrick says
PANIC!

Wait, 3 percent of 1 percent?


You're recasting it in a way that doesn't allow for the ruin of OrangeManBad and all his works.

And the restoration of the Neoliberal-SJW open borders brigade who sneered and raged when Trump began shutting down traffic way back at the end of January.

The very same people are now raging at the idea that the domestic economy reopens in a week or so.
4   Misc   2020 Mar 30, 6:25am  

The deaths are simply postponed not eliminated. Social distancing does not disintegrate the virus. No, it is in the population world-wide. Hopefully, good weather will allow the infection rate to drop greatly during the summer. However, in the Fall/Winter the infections will reappear. Unless there is a miracle cure (flu vaccines are about 30% effective, so I'm guessing a COVID-19 vaccine will be about the same), we will be put into the same position. Face up to a couple million deaths, or shut the economy down again.
5   CBOEtrader   2020 Mar 30, 6:50am  

ThreeBays says
The question of course for anyone who doesn't have pretzel logic is, was it worth imploding the economy to go from a miserable 2.2+ million dead to a manageable 81,000?


The 2.2M was based on a deathrate 10x the empirical rate. The empirical rate itself also probably over-reported considering people on death's door are dying WITH CV and recorded as dying FROM CV.

ThreeBays says
I'm curious Patrick, what turned you from being an awesome voice for overpriced housing to a troll who spreads harmful misinformation?


Ahh, to be young and stupid. Believe the authorities trying to spread hysteria if ya want. Be part of the problem. You would've been a nazi in 1930's Germany, and a Bolshevik in 1910. ALL the experts and scientists were behind it, meaning it must have been the right thing to do right?
6   zzyzzx   2020 Mar 30, 8:19am  

CBOEtrader says
The empirical rate itself also probably over-reported considering people on death's door are dying WITH CV and recorded as dying FROM CV.


Anyone dying of any type of flu are going to be recorded as dying on Coronavirus.
7   WookieMan   2020 Mar 30, 8:24am  

CBOEtrader says
The 2.2M was based on a deathrate 10x the empirical rate. The empirical rate itself also probably over-reported considering people on death's door are dying WITH CV and recorded as dying FROM CV.

This is spot on. I think the reporting on it is not accurate. Sure they may have had it, it doesn't mean it was the primary cause of death. And yes, the assumption of models that there are enough sickly people out there to kill 2M is misguided. As it spreads and they die, there are less sickly people for it to kill.

All that said, my family is fine hunkering down for a couple years if need be (it won't). Based off Trump's language yesterday, I'm 90% convinced lockdown, stay at home type shit is here until June 1st.
8   clambo   2020 Mar 30, 8:38am  

The growth rate of new cases seems to be declining, it may be okay for most healthy people to get back to a normal routine soon.

I think of the danger with a car analogy; if you are 10x as likely to crash driving the new “Sux 5000” as your present car, would you buy one?
9   JimSpatzenfeld   2020 Mar 30, 9:24am  

personal
10   Bd6r   2020 Mar 30, 9:39am  

thomasdong1776 says
how quickly we can kill grandma to help Wall Street.

One can reasonably argue that Corona scare allowed trump and congress to bail out incompetent companies such as Boeing without too much protest. So, corona scare actually helped wall street, and hurt main street and small businesses who will now be out of their jobs.
11   Bd6r   2020 Mar 30, 9:40am  

JimSpatzenfeld says
or you go by the folks who have studied pandemics their entire life and agree with all the other pros around the entire world, regardless of right wing, left wing, stock investors, corporation owners,etc.

Such as Sweden, who have introduced much less disruptions in their economy than the rest of the world?
12   CBOEtrader   2020 Mar 30, 9:56am  

zzyzzx says
CBOEtrader says
The empirical rate itself also probably over-reported considering people on death's door are dying WITH CV and recorded as dying FROM CV.


Anyone dying of any type of flu are going to be recorded as dying on Coronavirus.


Do we have reports of this happening?
13   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Mar 30, 11:30am  

Patrick says
Say 100,000 die out of 300M people (actually, the population is even larger than that). That's 0.0003.

Patrick says
It's still not at all clear that this was worth imploding the economy for.


Because... the 100,000 figure ASSUMES actions that will implode the economy.
Without these measures, 70% of the population get the disease, you are talking 2 millions dead, at least.
Maybe much more considering the healthcare system would be destroyed.

Can we please stop the silly head-in-the-sand denialism?
14   Malcolm   2020 Mar 30, 11:40am  

That's if everything goes well. Depending on the scenario, in the next 6 months, we will have had the equivalent to one of the following:

50,000 Vietnam War
250,000 Total US deaths of WWII
600,000 Combined deaths of the US Civil War
1,000,000 Deaths from Pol Pot in Cambodia
6,000,000 Jewish Holocaust

There is no way to make light of the fact that we are going to face an event that optimistically will kill between a Vietnam and a WWII, in the best case scenario, or something between the Khmer Rouge and a deliberate genocide.
15   Malcolm   2020 Mar 30, 11:42am  

ThreeBays says
Actual death rate is about 0.1% of those infected.


Any raw data set shows 1 to 4%. For example, in San Diego, 500 cases 7 deaths. Other places and age groups are much higher.
16   EBGuy   2020 Mar 30, 12:16pm  

For some perspective, per CDC:
Heart Disease in the United States:
* Heart disease is the leading cause of death for men, women, and people of most racial and ethnic groups in the United States.1
* One person dies every 37 seconds in the United States from cardiovascular disease.1
* About 647,000 Americans die from heart disease each year—that’s 1 in every 4 deaths.2,3
* Heart disease costs the United States about $219 billion each year from 2014 to 2015.3 This includes the cost of health care services, medicines, and lost productivity due to death.

And behind door number three, the University of Washington model which predicts a mid April peak.
With those inputs, the computer models project a total of 81,114 deaths in the U.S. over the next four months. Most of those deaths are expected to occur during April, peaking at more than 2,300 deaths per day. That rate is projected to drop below 10 deaths per day sometime between May 31 and June 6.
17   rdm   2020 Mar 30, 12:41pm  

Have we gone from under-action to over-reaction? It may be so. This is a typical American scenario (see 9-11 and all the shit that flowed out of it). The first part, the under-action is quite clear; a disgraceful lack of foresight and preparation along with the continuing general level of gross incompetence that is being demonstrated every day on the federal level, whether we now are over reacting remains to be seen.
18   HeadSet   2020 Mar 30, 12:49pm  

Have we gone from under-action to over-reaction?

There it is. Just like I predicted in an earlier thread, the left's narrative will move from "Trump did not do enough" to "Trump Over-Reacted." This new spin will really take off when COVID-19 turns out to be far less severe than than the constant drum beat of the left had predicted.
19   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Mar 30, 12:50pm  

There is no disgraceful lack of foresight.

China lied for 3 months, refused help, refused to cooperate with WHO, and is still giving False Numbers. Chinese dissidents are putting the death toll in Hubei alone in the tens of thousands and are reporting hudnreds of funeral services daily for their already cremated weeks ago relatives now that the Chicoms are re-allowing in-region travel.

While the Chinese lied, thousands of Wuhan dwellers came and went from Hong Kong, Europe, and North America during the Lunar New Year Holiday, bringing the disease with them while borders were wide open and nobody expected anything more than a regional outbreak. Many were asymptomatic. Some H-1B gave it to a co-worker who only suffered a minor case or was asymptomatic herself, and she brought it to her mom in a Washington State or New Jersey nursing home... and then the nurses got it...

This also explains why Iran of all places, was one of the earliest and hardest hit, since they have huge trade ties with China.

BTW, speaking of liars, Russia is only claiming 9 deaths. Yes, despite the huge land border and high volume of trade between Russia and China.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-march-29-a69117

That, or Vodka is even more efficacious than Chloroquine.
20   Patrick   2020 Mar 30, 12:55pm  

HeadSet says
There it is. Just like I predicted in an earlier thread, the left's narrative will move from "Trump did not do enough" to "Trump Over-Reacted." This new spin will really take off when COVID-19 turns out to be far less severe than than the constant drum beat of the left had predicted.


Yup.

100% certainty Trump will be blamed and vilified no matter what he does.

This is proof of the moral bankruptcy of the left/media/globalists, still licking their wounds and stewing in criminally insane levels of hatred because the people rightly rejected Hillary, violating DIRECT ORDERS from the media to vote for her.
22   rdm   2020 Mar 30, 1:39pm  

HeadSet says

There it is. Just like I predicted in an earlier thread, the left's narrative will move from "Trump did not do enough" to "Trump Over-Reacted."


Whatever, you said it I didnt, seeing everything through a lense of Trump is a sad state to be in, left or right.

NoCoupForYou says
There is no disgraceful lack of foresight


One can blame the Chinese, they certainly were disingenuous, that is their normal modus operandi, you cant believe anything they say. But the fact of the matter is we should have intelligence gathering in the federal gov. that told the power people in the federal Gov. that there was a huge risk of a pandemic brewing in China. In fact reports state that is exactly what the intelligence agencies reported. Was that intelligence acted on in a timely manner? No.
23   komputodo   2020 Mar 30, 1:43pm  

JimSpatzenfeld says
If we had not killed the economy, and kept going as usual, the estimate was 1-2 Million deaths.


lol.......estimated.
24   socal2   2020 Mar 30, 1:48pm  

rdm says
But the fact of the matter is we should have intelligence gathering in the federal gov. that told the power people in the federal Gov. that there was a huge risk of a pandemic brewing in China. In fact reports state that is exactly what the intelligence agencies reported. Was that intelligence acted on in a timely manner? No.


I thought that is why we had the WHO to track and warn about this type of stuff?
25   komputodo   2020 Mar 30, 1:50pm  

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says
I find it entertaining to shoot people from the sky and, hey, I paid for the helicopter and the gun and less than 1% of Americans will die even if I spent 17 hours a day shooting and only break to shit, shave and shower and rest each day.

What's the harm?

BLOW! ME!


www.youtube.com/embed/MDU97qv9AC8
Is this you on the M60?
26   Ceffer   2020 Mar 30, 2:12pm  

If you buy the notion that Covid-19 is a lab generated Frankenstein, the initial Chinese reaction could be interpreted as a typical authoritarian rage that they could suffer disgrace, as well as exposure for their bioweapons research, and so they tried to put the genie back in the bottle right away before things got out. They insist that it is American Military, which could be accurate, since some interpreters believe Covid-19 has been derived from various research samples sourced from the distribution channels of Fort Dietrich, some parts purchased from legitimate research sources, some purloined.

I just wonder if the Chinese were also suffering an authoritarian rage reaction because they were exploited as useful idiots, and the release of the virus from Wuhan was in fact planned as a spy op specifically for the purpose of engendering the Pandemic Panic reaction for the controlled demolition of our economy, rights and freedoms in the West, and, of course, to defeat OrangeManBad. The splicing was pretty tight between the raised voices of Coronavirus and the failure of the faked impeachment hearings. Only the SpookPlex can know for sure.

Obviously, the Chinese have suffered because of the negative attention that their supply chain dominance and its origins have gotten.

If you believe it was bats in caves and animal vectors, then it is a slightly more comfortable world.
27   Onvacation   2020 Mar 30, 2:25pm  

Ceffer says
The splicing was pretty tight between the raised voices of Coronavirus and the failure of the faked impeachment hearings.


Summer is coming. Soon the global warmers climate changers will be out in force.
28   rocketjoe79   2020 Mar 30, 2:36pm  

The SpookPlex - I love that one!
TPTB also moved loads of their money out of the market in prep for this event. It was time to reap profits, engineer the correction, and have cash on hand to buy low - again.
29   rocketjoe79   2020 Mar 30, 2:40pm  

Onvacation says
Ceffer says
The splicing was pretty tight between the raised voices of Coronavirus and the failure of the faked impeachment hearings.


Summer is coming. Soon the global warmers climate changers will be out in force.


Global warmists can now say "See how much staying inside did for pollution reduction? It's clear -- humans have to stay home ALWAYS. It's what's right for the planet!"

They were on the right track - remove the human infestation. Earth is only meant to be occupied by a few caretaker humans. The rest must go.
What, me? I'm a caretaker, fool! Isn't that obvious?!?!
30   Reality   2020 Mar 30, 2:48pm  

JimSpatzenfeld says
100,000 to 200,000 is the estimate WITH an imploded economy.
If we had not killed the economy, and kept going as usual, the estimate was 1-2 Million deaths.
So killing the economy is estimated to save between 900,000 to 1,800,000 lives.
Might have been worth it.


Heraclitusstudent says
Because... the 100,000 figure ASSUMES actions that will implode the economy.
Without these measures, 70% of the population get the disease, you are talking 2 millions dead, at least.
Maybe much more considering the healthcare system would be destroyed.


Social-distancing and shutting down the economy were supposed to "flatten the curve," not reducing the total number of infections/exposures. Even Fauci and Birx understand that a contagious disease with natural R0=3 can not be stopped until the herd immunity reaches 66% - 70%! The only way anyone can get immunity is having been exposed to the virus (and 99.9+ % having survived, and the remaining <0.1% would die; that's where the "up to 200k" number comes from). Intensive intervention only available at hospitals (ventilation and intubation) only save less than about 10% of the severe cases that get those treatments; i.e. if the illness gets to that stage, 90+% patients needing such intensive care would die anyway even when there is no shortage of hospital beds. So, in other words, if 2 million people had been saved by hospital intensive care, 20 million would have died!

The current official estimate is that up to 200,000 people will die; that means, at most hospital would be able to save 20,000 patients (could be as few as half that or much less). That has to be offset by the 100,000 patients that die every year due to contagious diseases that they pick up from hospitals, according to CDC numbers!

In fact, now that the disease is spreading at R0>2 despite 90+% social interactions have been stopped, it's quite obvious that hospitals are the primary venue of disease transmission!

The idiots who worship hospitals (which are good at fixing mechanical trama / injury, but are really quite ineffective against contagious viral diseases because the way they are set up and not having any antibiotic effective against the virus) is about as stupid as the Iranian muslims who believed that kissing the holy rock / temple-wall in Qum would cure the same disease for them! Blind faith in the face of existing facts proving contrary to the faith!

What should have been shut down was hospitals / medical facilities that served more than 10 patients in any 24hr period; at least stopping them from taking new patients. Not the rest of the economy!

BTW, the devastation of the original "Flu," which has become a medical term only since the 1918-1919 "Spanish Flu," was also due to massive medical malpractice/stupidity/blind-faith: the doctors were handing out the magic pill Asprin like candies because the allied powers took German firm Bayer's patent on Asprin as war spoils at the end of WWI. Asprin reduces fever, which is the body's natural response for fighting off virus. Those who were prescribed Asprin during the 1918-1919 flu were dying at 30x the rate as those who were given traditional hydrotherapy (warm water treatment, usually either warm bath or warm wet towels wrapped around the chest, because they didn't have electric heating pads back then).
31   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Mar 30, 3:22pm  

Reality says
Social-distancing and shutting down the economy were supposed to "flatten the curve," not reducing the total number of infections/exposures.

BS You flatten it until a vaccine.
If your assumption is 70% of people will get it anyway, then the toll will be close to 2 millions regardless of everything.
32   goofus   2020 Mar 30, 3:37pm  

I doubt this curve will flatten by 9000 people (the 0.0003 cited above). The steepness of our death rate and the lack of flattening are far worse than China at this point, three weeks past the 20-death mark.



504 Gateway Time-out

504 Gateway Time-out

nginx/1.6.2

33   Reality   2020 Mar 30, 3:37pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
Reality says
Social-distancing and shutting down the economy were supposed to "flatten the curve," not reducing the total number of infections/exposures.

BS You flatten it until a vaccine.
If your assumption is 70% of people will get it anyway, then the toll will be close to 2 millions regardless of everything.


Utter nonsense! Read up what "flatten the curve" means. It doesn't affect the total infection/exposure count, but only the speed at which infections/exposure take place, hoping to limit it to the hospital capacity. What the hospital-worshipers failed to take into account is that hospital intensive care only cures less than 10% of cases that require that kind of intensive care, so fitting the hospital capacity is a meaningless goal except for maximizing medical bills on the population!

When a virus has natural R0=3, then 66%-70% of the people will have to be infected/exposed to the virus before herd immunity is sufficient to stop the virus. That's just basic math / medical knowledge. Exposing 66-70% of the US population to the virus doesn't mean 2 million dead because the actual case fatality rate is much much lower than what they had thought initially. The original 2mil number came from 1% fatality assumption (66-70% of 300+mil is about 200+mil, and 1% of that is 2+mil). The fact that most people exposed to it are non-symptomatic and there already being a large immune population (Diamond Princess showing only 20-30% positive instead of 100% positive after mingling for weeks if there were no existing immunity) is indicating that the actual fatality rate is 0.1% or lower.
34   goofus   2020 Mar 30, 3:45pm  

The countries with success in flattening the curve (and not initiating steep death rates from the outset) are all east Asian: China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong.

In contrast to the West, they have widespread use of 1) masks, 2) testing, 3) medication (HCQ for one), 4) selective quarantine of the positive cases -- not economic destruction via mass quarantine. China's mass quarantine lasted 3 weeks, then the economy restarted. Ours has no end in sight.

CDC is asleep at the wheel here with their OCD handwashing / social avoidance campaign, and nothing else from the above list.
35   Rin   2020 Mar 30, 3:46pm  

Reality says
Utter nonsense! Read up what "flatten the curve" means. It doesn't affect the total infection/exposure count, but only the speed at which infections/exposure take place, hoping to limit it to the hospital capacity.


Thank you Reality.

What you've just done is teach our resident faux intellectual, the concept of integral calculus.

In other words, when one adds all the incremental volumes under a rate curve, one gets a summation, or an integration, which is the total no of cases. The longer the 'curve' stays flat, the longer it takes for the larger population to get exposed to the virus and thus, spares the medical centers from reaching critical mass of patients, both Corona related and non-related, where they can't deliver healthcare to the masses.
36   WookieMan   2020 Mar 30, 3:47pm  

Reality says
Utter nonsense! Read up what "flatten the curve" means. It doesn't affect the total infection/exposure count, but only the speed at which infections/exposure take place, hoping to limit it to the hospital capcity.

Yes, that's all we're doing at this point. It's a virus. It doesn't go away. Even with a vaccine, it's not going to be 100% effective. 2M won't die. As more of the sick and elderly die, there's less opportunity for the virus to kill.

People put waaaayyyy too much faith in who they think are "educated" and "know" what they're talking about.
37   goofus   2020 Mar 30, 3:48pm  

Reality says
When a virus has natural R0=3, then 66%-70% of the people will have to be infected/exposed to the virus before herd immunity is sufficient to stop the virus.


South Korea has stopped the increase in COVID cases without "herd immunity." We know this because their mass testing yielded relatively few positive cases: 338,000 tested and 9600 positive. 133 of those died.

www.youtube.com/embed/gAk7aX5hksU&feature=youtu.be
38   Reality   2020 Mar 30, 3:53pm  

goofus says
South Korea has stopped the increase in COVID cases without "herd immunity." We know this because their mass testing yielded relatively few positive cases: 338,000 tested and 9600 positive. 133 of those died.


Another medical ignoramus. How does testing stop spreading? It's a virus for crying out loud. 338k is less than 1% of SK population. Did they kill all the 9600 people who tested positive? Did they kill the remaining 50+ million South Koreans waiting to be tested?

South Korea has not stopped the transmission. There is a large number of new cases in Seoul in today's news. What South Korea did accomplish was slowing down the wild-fire hospital spread by forcing all doctors and nurses to wash their hands between patients.
39   goofus   2020 Mar 30, 3:58pm  

Reality says
goofus says
South Korea has stopped the increase in COVID cases without "herd immunity." We know this because their mass testing yielded relatively few positive cases: 338,000 tested and 9600 positive. 133 of those died.


Another medical ignoramus. How does testing stop spreading? It's a virus for crying out loud. 338k is less than 1% of SK population. Did they kill all the 9600 people who tested positive? Did they kill the remaining 50+ million South Koreans waiting to be tested?


Give me a break. The pomposity. Testing stops spreading because they selectively quarantine those with positive results. Two weeks in-home, with a phone app tracking location. Authorities force them to remain in place, keeping track of (patient-reported) symptoms twice daily, followed by a doctor's visit afterward with tests for COVID antibodies. Those without antibodies are not considered cured.

You think South Korea never initiated the steep death climb because of doctors "hand washing"? You've got to be kidding me. This isn't the middle ages...
40   Reality   2020 Mar 30, 4:05pm  

goofus says
I doubt this curve will flatten by 9000 people (the 0.0003 cited above). The steepness of our death rate and the lack of flattening are far worse than China at this point, three weeks past the 20-death mark.



504 Gateway Time-out

504 Gateway Time-out

nginx/1.6.2



You are drawing a log chart to mislead.

What is not shown in your log chart is another even faster rising exponential curve of people who have been exposed and survived and therefore immune.

All those exponential curves eventually have to level out to a Gaussian curve due to the large immune population. That's how all contagious disease plot over time.

The longer lock-down takes place, the more weeks it will take before the Gassian curve can flatten

So long as the lock-down is targeted at the rest of the economy instead of targeted at the hospitals, the lock-down policy is actually artificially selecting for the most deadly strains of the virus: the patients suffering from the more deadly strains get to the hospital and can communicate to others (and to medical personnel who then can bring it out to others outside the hospitals), whereas the more benign strains that land on the rest of the population are impeded from spreading. Such a policy will lead to more deaths than not having any intervention at all, where the more deadly strains would have died with the dead people leaving the more benign varieties to survive!

Comments 1 - 40 of 376       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions