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Coronavirus toll could be up to 0.0003 of the US population!

By Patrick follow Patrick   2020 Mar 29, 9:38pm 7,407 views   451 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    

PANIC!

Wait, 3 percent of 1 percent?

Yes, 100 times smaller than 3 percent.

Say 100,000 die out of 300M people (actually, the population is even larger than that). That's 0.0003.

So, since 0.0086 of the US dies every year on average, this could bump up the US death rate by 3 / 86 = 3.5% this year.

Except not it wouldn't even be that much, because a large fraction of those who die weren't going to make it through a normal 2020 anyway.

It's still not at all clear that this was worth imploding the economy for. Remember that 81,000 died of the flu in 2018 and no one even blinked.

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321   mell   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 25, 11:55am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

logic says
annoyed1 says
Patrick says
OK, let's say by the end of the year.


I think sooner than that. It may double over the next month or two, especially if the stay-at-home orders are lifted. That sucks, but we still have no vaccine ready. Some are in trials, but it will take time to release them to the public and ramp up production.


Sorry to break it to you Patrick, we will be at 80k deaths by mid May.


So? Similar to the flu except they stop counting in spring/summer otherwise you'd see similar rates. That number means nothing without putting it into context to how many would have died anyways and how many additional patients would have died by catching any infectious disease.
322   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Apr 28, 10:32am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Sticking by a max of 80,000, with more evidence:



From https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
323   NoCoupForYou   ignore (3)   2020 Apr 28, 10:36am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Less deadly than H3N2 of 1968 (Hong Kong Flu), which killed 100K of ~200M in the USA. Needless to say, the country was not shut down for weeks on end.

Khe Sahn, Apollo 8, Johnny Cash performs in Folsom Prison, Prague Spring, Chicago Convention Disaster, MLK Assassinated. The HK Flu doesn't even make "The Year 1968" lists most of the time.

It's a strain of a common virus family.
324   ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 10, 10:24pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Sticking by a max of 80,000, with more evidence:



From https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america


Sadly we passed your max estimate. Many serology studies around the country are showing low digit infection numbers, so there's still a long way to go.
326   Shake85   ignore (0)   2020 May 10, 11:19pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ThreeBays says
Patrick says
Sticking by a max of 80,000, with more evidence:



From https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america


Sadly we passed your max estimate. Many serology studies around the country are showing low digit infection numbers, so there's still a long way to go.
ty
327   mell   ignore (6)   2020 May 11, 7:43am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Most German microbiologists agree that the majority of those who die during Covid-19 have preexisting conditions that make them not die OF Covid-19, but WITH Covid-19. Look at the diverging numbers for US vs Germany for example although even the US is clearly on the mends. It's clear that the US numbers are exaggerated. Every death is one too many as the saying goes, but to shut down the country over a cold/flu-like illness that is less deadly than the HongKong flu of 1969 which didn't make any headlines, when large gatherings such as Woodstock were held despite of zomg! pandemic! is utterly ridiculous and clearly politically motivated and will take many more lives and livelihoods in the long run.
328   NoCoupForYou   ignore (3)   2020 May 16, 7:29am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

logic says
What really sucks is that I was right about how much Trump would add to the deficit too.


@Patrick 's Model didn't take into account that Libtard Governors of NJ, PA, and NY would send COVID sufferers to nursing homes.

Nobody thought their PhDs in Social Warfare and Public Administration (aka "Public Health Experts") would be dumb enough to do such a thing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-sent-recovering-coronavirus-patients-to-nursing-homes-it-was-a-fatal-error-11589470773
329   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 May 16, 7:43am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Excess deaths are still well below 80,000.

Substantially below. We finally did a neighbor hang out last night playing yard games and drinking some beers with about 20 or so of us. Spoke with 2 nurses that I hadn't spoken with since February or so. The "conspiracy" theory of labeling deaths is 1,000% true. I have no doubt about that now.

The Chinese numbers are probably actually accurate which is fucking scary if you think about it. You don't have to believe me, but I trust these people and the deaths are intentionally being labeled COVID deaths if they test positive regardless of the actual cause of deaths to receive more government funds from old people that likely don't have private insurance. Say a patient succumbs to kidney or liver failure that's 70+ and on medicare/aid (whatever program it is), they test positive for COVID and die from kidney failure and it's called COVID even WITHOUT any respiratory issues.

I don't know if it's intentional or not that we're incentivizing COVID deaths, but it's happening for sure. I now have 2-3 direct witnesses of the practice occurring.
331   georgeliberte   ignore (0)   2020 May 16, 12:52pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

It seems to me that every journalist who avoided or failed the high school stories about science without math course has now decided they are expert epidemiologists. I have read asinine facts like even on single virus can infect you. Maybe in a wild scenario, but that is not how viral load of infection works. Thy publish meaningless terrifying articles to stir up more fear and urge (demand) everyone be socially responsible. OH, and wear that totally ineffective mask.
332   mell   ignore (6)   2020 May 16, 1:06pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Also in SF they "want to see less than 6.3 infections per day for a sustained period" to call off lockdown measures?! WTF, in a county of 1MM at least 10 people catch a cold every day, esp. outside of the summer months, no?! That would only be 3650 colds per year in 1MM people, so WTF if they test the shit out of everyone they will never get below 10 for a relatively contagious virus until herd immunity is reached which can take another couple months. Imbeciles! and! deliberate! leftoid! asshole! dictators! hellbent on destroying the Trump economy and infringing on people civl liberties. Open up now!
333   Misc   ignore (0)   2020 May 16, 1:26pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Yes, cancer deaths, pneumonia deaths, deaths from the flu, and deaths from heart issues are all down and can be attributed to blindly ascribing Covid as the cause of death.

I don't know what the decline in deaths due to medical errors can be attributed to, however.
334   marcus   ignore (11)   2020 May 16, 1:49pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Misc says
Yes, cancer deaths, pneumonia deaths, deaths from the flu, and deaths from heart issues are all down and can be attributed to blindly ascribing Covid as the cause of death.


Interesting. Would you please share source(s) on this ?

I have heard that hospitals (which are in trouble finacially these days) are incentivised to lable deaths as Covid related.
335   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 May 16, 8:08pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

logic says
WookieMan says
Patrick says
Excess deaths are still well below 80,000.

Substantially below.


Guess what? I'm saving 15% on my auto insurance. No, it's not because I switched to Geico. It's because auto accidents are down and hence auto accident deaths are down. I'm with a great insurance company that refunded me money for the fact that claims are down.

Did either of you ever stop to think that maybe this is why we are not over a baseline by 80k deaths?

I think your attempt at sarcasm/humor failed here unfortunately. Either way I have verifiable proof that deaths are being categorized falsely. Again, no one has to believe me, but it's fact at this point and it's undeniable. My sources are associated with every political leaning. There's no bias. Legitimate deaths, 100% caused by COVID are easily under 10K. Might be under 5K.
336   ad   ignore (0)   2020 May 16, 8:24pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

.

I'd like to know more about the life cycle of the virus and its mutation. The WHO and/or CDC have had about 6 months to study this virus and by now I would hope they could answer these questions.

Does it remain in an asymptomatic host for many weeks or months before it dies or continuously mutates to another strain ?

Is it only transmitted via "respiratory droplet" ?

Can wearing a mask significantly reduce the transmission even if with 6 feet such as sitting next to someone on a Greyhound bus or in a Southwest Airline passenger plane ?

Can it survive on warm surfaces or when exposed to sunlight or certain type of lighting ?

Can it surface if Lysol disinfectant or hydrogen peroxide vapor (HPV) is sprayed on it ?

.
337   NoCoupForYou   ignore (3)   2020 May 16, 9:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

logic says
Did either of you ever stop to think that maybe this is why we are not over a baseline by 80k deaths?


Just wait until the trailing effect of people NOT getting screened for cancer, heart issues, etc. is felt over the next year.

Somebody who was Stage I/II of some Cancer that was 90% reversible in March delays their screening until August... and finds themselves with Stage III and only a 40% chance now. Now multiply this by thousands.

For those who delayed that EKG or Blood Panel 6 months, may stroke out or massive heart attack before they ever get it now. Multiply that by thousands as well. Had they gone in March and got bypass surgery or simply Blood Pressure Meds, they may have lived another decade, maybe decades plural.
338   Misc   ignore (0)   2020 May 16, 11:51pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I'd put the over counting at about 20k for the US as a whole. This is based off the differences between the death rate between Germany (who is supposed to be only counting those where the Death is Covid only) and the US death rate where there have been stories about counting it a Covid death if it was just present. I get this off Worldometers. Here's a link for a state that's come clean about its over-reporting Covid deaths the percentage between old and new figures are roughly the same as the Worldometer figures.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/texas-cases-of-covid-19-increasing-by-thousands-since-reopening/ar-BB14b61B?ocid=msedgdhp
339   georgeliberte   ignore (0)   2020 May 17, 7:05am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

"t's hard to imagine a country wide conspiracy to inflate Covid deaths." Agreed. But a wide spread mind-set that COVID is unusually deadly will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
340   georgeliberte   ignore (0)   2020 May 17, 7:19am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Maybe it is just me, but, I find the unanimity of most of the press that we are experiencing an apocalypse, and know it is so because-science!, when the predictions based on alleged cold hard absolutely true facts keep changing and are later shown to have been based on shaky assumptions an models unsettling.I also find it insufficient basis to force me to surrender my basic rights and agree to be treated like a naughty simple-minded child.
341   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 May 17, 7:53am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

logic says
Without proof I don't believe you, you say you have verifiable proof then why not share it?

What the fuck do you want me to do? Record these people saying they've witnessed it on multiple occasions and post it here on patnet? That they've worked on these patients and know the actual cause of death?

Friendship is over once it's grabbed from here and posted everywhere else. Potential loss of employment. I not trying to convince anyone here, just stating that I know people that said the practice is 100% occurring in their hospitals. There's no argument to be had here, it is fact. My wife gets bitched at running without a mask for fucks sake, you think people are going to want to be on audio or video posted here? Then it goes to social media and is all over the place. This is the only way I can share it, first hand knowledge of it happening.

logic says
What you are overlooking is that your state has more deaths than California with a 1/4 th the population. What is up with that? Maybe there is some BS going on in your state but that doesn't mean it is happening in all States. Time will tell.


Where did I say every single state in the country or even hospital was doing it? It's not a conspiracy. As long docs are trying to keep people alive and doing their duty, putting the cause of death as COVID isn't a crime if they had it when they passed. If someone has pancreatic cancer for 2 years and dies having obtained COVID, the cause of death should be the cancer 10 out of 10 times. This is not what is happening in many areas. Not all areas, many.
342   NoCoupForYou   ignore (3)   2020 May 17, 1:16pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I think even Dr. Faucci admitted the deaths for those under 60 is the same as a typical flu season.

They're still not sure if there was a single documented Child-to-Parent transmission of COVID, ever.

This was a gross overreaction.
343   ad   ignore (0)   2020 May 17, 1:34pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

.

Colorado Governor states CDC is over counting number of COVID-19 deaths. Colorado previously had reported 1,150 people died from COVID-19, but late Friday, officials changed that number to 878.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/colorado-gov-pushes-back-against-cdcs-coronavirus-death-counts

.
344   NoCoupForYou   ignore (3)   2020 May 17, 1:35pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The Times found 14 states where more than half of total deaths occurred in facilities for the elderly. It was 55 percent in Connecticut, 57 percent in Colorado, North Carolina and Kentucky, 58 percent in Virginia, 59 percent in Massachusetts, 61 percent in Delaware, 66 percent in Pennsylvania, 73 percent in Rhode Island and 80 percent in West Virginia and Minnesota.

The states with the most nursing-home deaths, New York and New Jersey, didn’t make the list because of so many other deaths, yet more than 10,000 people died in their facilities. The 5,500 nursing-home deaths in New York are more than the total deaths in all other states except New Jersey.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/16/blame-governors-for-coronavirus-deaths-in-nursing-homes-goodwin/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons
345   ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 17, 1:51pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NoCoupForYou says
logic says
What really sucks is that I was right about how much Trump would add to the deficit too.


@Patrick 's Model didn't take into account that Libtard Governors of NJ, PA, and NY would send COVID sufferers to nursing homes.

Nobody thought their PhDs in Social Warfare and Public Administration (aka "Public Health Experts") would be dumb enough to do such a thing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-sent-recovering-coronavirus-patients-to-nursing-homes-it-was-a-fatal-error-11589470773


As if Patrick actually had a model and not a baseless theory that C19 is no worse than a bad flu.
346   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 May 17, 8:36pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Posted for a reader:

assuming that the effective death rate for those contracting COVID is 1.3% (5 times the seasonal flu rate) of the population, as reported as numerous websites, this means that even those getting it fall into a range of infirmities between asymptomatic and fatal, and that 98.3 percent survive it. This is an extremely high survival rate for a "pandemic"

Moreover, only a small proportion of Americans get it to begin with, and I don't really know reliable data for calculating what the likelihood is for even getting it

I do not think it is a hoax, and I think that the sensationalistic press (as opposed to liberal press), or billionaires with large short positions, and bureaucrats with a desire to enhance their status and receive more funding for their programs, and more corporations who have an interest to learn to what degree they can order customers around in their stores, or Democratic Party strategists seeking to embarass Trump, have an interest in promoting the narrative of pending doom and disaster.

My view, very bluntly stated, is that I would rather have /4 Million/ Americans die from it (the outcome if it adhered to this average) that one dolphin or whale be strangled by inhaling a surgical mask or the non-reusable bag from Smart & Final. It would be OK if I were one of them.

Humans have grossly overpopulated the earth, and a range of disastrous consequences are going to follow, from the consequences of consumer consumption, insane energy consumption, and a host of other behaviors humanity needs to radically reverse. COVID is Mother Nature's first gentle warning. Much worse things are coming down the pike.

I know what you don't believe this, but there is no point in getting into a big back-and-forth about it.

As I said, I'm headed for Idaho, where I will become a potato and hide in the soil (wink)
347   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   ignore (7)   2020 May 17, 8:47pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The media has been an absolute abomination during the Covid “pandemic”.

If there’s one thing that happens as a result, I hope that the legacy media goes under. Those assholes need to be out of business and their staff needs to find a new line of work.
348   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 May 17, 9:11pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says
Those assholes need to be out of business and their staff needs to find a new line of work.


I'm convinced that they are not in business at all anymore.

They can lose as much money as they like, and will simply get funded more.

The mainstream media exists only as a political tool now, funded by billionaires like Bezos.

Their function is about the same as Pravda's used to be.
349   NoCoupForYou   ignore (3)   2020 May 17, 9:37pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ThreeBays says
As if Patrick actually had a model and not a baseless theory that C19 is no worse than a bad flu.


Is COVID tracked the same way the Flu is? Or are the standards of measurement and reporting different?

Thanks.
350   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 May 18, 5:27am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

logic says
Show the verifiable proof. But you don't have verifiable proof which was the point of my comment.

🤷‍♂️ Reading? I have the proof. I'm not going to jeopardize people's careers that gave me the information. I've said this before (2nd time now). You don't have to believe me, clearly you don't. That's fine. I'm 100% correct, so keep arguing about something you don't know about.

logic says
Or what if the doctor thought the patient would have lived another year or was about to declare remission?

https://www.cancer.net/cancer-types/pancreatic-cancer/statistics
You have a better chance of actually dying from COVID alone, than survive a pancreatic cancer diagnosis. 47k die from it each year. Also, not sure how auto accidents got into this. Never made the conspiracy theory claim auto accidents and gun deaths are being labeled COVID. I'm talking chronic conditions. I'm sure there's no chance any of these specific cancer deaths were labeled COVID, like zero chance. Right? Sorry I cannot trash people's lives with evidence to make you happy, but you've also presented zero evidence to counter my claims. If you're so sure deaths are being accurately recorded, prove it....
351   mell   ignore (6)   2020 May 18, 7:32am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

logic says
WookieMan says

What the fuck do you want me to do?


Show the verifiable proof. But you don't have verifiable proof which was the point of my comment. You have hearsay at best. What you most certainly don't have is any proof that is verifiable.


If you severely restrict people's civil liberties and pursuit of happiness in a possibly unconstitutional way then the burden is on you to exactly detail and lay out the stats comparing all the other causes of death, incl. those that will be missed due to people not going to the hospital or MD now the best you can and it better shows in an ironclad way that Covid-19 deaths would largely surpass all these other causes of death if we did nothing. We all know the truth is the opposite, that the lockdowns only marginally changed death statistics, so I consider this akin to a coup or at least unconstitutional power grab.
352   Shaman   ignore (2)   2020 May 18, 7:40am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
The mainstream media exists only as a political tool now, funded by billionaires like Bezos.


And funded by the CIA, Big Pharma, Health Insurance, the Military Industrial Complex, and large corporations like Monsanto. They “sell ads” to these entities which is why we have to watch a meaningless ad from Monsanto when we have zero chance of ever buying their seed in bulk. Monsanto wants the news Corp to say favorable things or at least spin the news to keep heat off them, and the ad is their way of paying for it.
353   marcus   ignore (11)   2020 May 18, 10:14am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

marcus says
Misc says
Yes, cancer deaths, pneumonia deaths, deaths from the flu, and deaths from heart issues are all down and can be attributed to blindly ascribing Covid as the cause of death.


Interesting. Would you please share source(s) on this ?


354   mell   ignore (6)   2020 May 18, 12:41pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

logic says
mell says
If you severely restrict people's civil liberties and pursuit of happiness in a possibly unconstitutional way then the burden is on you to exactly detail and lay out the stats comparing all the other causes of death,


Lol, "you", who? Me? How the fuck am I doing that. Please tell me. I'm not the president of the United States, I'm not the one failing to bring this country together. Obama, a black man, did that 17% better than Trump.

If people say they have "verifiable proof" either they have it or they don't. The key word is verifiable. If I can't verify it how is it verifiable. Words matter. Like I said I don't care that much just calling people out on their bullshit. It will be interesting to look back in a year and look at how the numbers worked out but until then, I call bullshit unless anyone wants to provide better proof than subtracting a baseline. Show me the num...


The people who take away civil rights need to have verifiable proof but they don't. Sure you can ask for proof from the other side but it's not their burden as they're not infringing on millions of people and their livelihoods.

thomasdong1776 says
logic says
It will be interesting to look back in a year and look at how the numbers worked out


Of course all the PatNetters who now insist the virus is little more than a cold and that the mortality numbers are made up to make Trump look bad will all change their screen names then so they can't be held accountable for their bullshit.


Don't be daft you can do the math already. Most models agree that by now around 20%-25% have been exposed, we're only testing those with symptoms and severe cases. Of course you will have a lot of deaths with a new highly contagious virus where there's no vaccine. But the mortality rate is similar to that one of the flu, pretty much all experts agree on this by now. If you count flu deaths 24/7 365 days per year you get close to a 100k every year as well.

Nobody has said the virus is a hoax, or that it's not a bad situation, but it's not unprecedented and we have never reacted like this before to a bad flu pandemic, not in 2018, not in 2009, not in 1969. and the lives of people lost not being able to go to the hospital or too scared to do so or visit their MD and adding in those dying from suicide, depression, drug use due to grim economic outlook will by far surpass the deaths from Covid-19 in years to come. It's already happening all over the place, heart disease or cancer caught too late. You can ask any MD who you're friends with and they will tell you off the record that it's been happening, their hospitals are empty and that this situation is worse than Covid-19.
355   Onvacation   ignore (5)   2020 May 18, 2:32pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

logic says
Show me the numbers otherwise it's not truth it's bullshit.

We were told we had to shut down and flatten the curve or millions would die. We shut down, flattened the curve, and < 100k died. There is your numbers.

Time to open up.
356   mell   ignore (6)   2020 May 18, 3:12pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

That proves my point nobody said it's a hoax. The virus will disappear one day that's a fact, that day may be soon or far out but the curves are already massively going down. The coverage it has gotten certainly is a hoax perpetrated by the Demonrats and CNNMSNPC. No doubt about it if you compare it to the coverage of past flu pandemics/epidemics.
357   NoCoupForYou   ignore (3)   2020 May 18, 3:37pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Even if the press are a bunch of bohemian bourgeois who consider themselves international citizens of the world and don't give two shits about the USA beyond a history of slavery?

I think half a century of managing the press makes him qualified.

The media hated Nixon, Reagan, dubya too. The only republican they tolerated was CIA NWO operative elder Bush, and even then they preferred Clinton by a mile.
358   NoCoupForYou   ignore (3)   2020 May 18, 3:45pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Covid is being overcounted, as there is a fiscal and political incentive to do so.

If we used German standards, the death rate would be at least half of what it is.

It's also interesting that ultimate power seems to change with the subject. Not more than a few weeks ago, that vaunted press was insisting POTUS couldn't force states to open.

Yet, it's also trying to keep Trump as the most responsible, ridiculously.

Can't have it both ways.

If the govenors are the primary actors, then Cuomo bears a huge chunk of responsibility and has to explain why his death rate are far higher than Florida or Texas.
359   socal2   ignore (1)   2020 May 18, 4:10pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

logic says
Time to place the blame squarely where it should be, on the president.


What blame specifically?

Should Trump be blamed that New York and New Jersey were shit shows responsible for most of the country's coronavirus deaths by shutting down too late, refusing to sanitize the subways until last week and sending Covid patients back into nursing homes?
360   jazz_music   ignore (13)   2020 May 18, 5:23pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

logic says
Obama was always at fault
And don’t forget Trump made Obama show a birth certificate yet Trump doesn’t show his tax filing.

Now Trump won’t accept responsibility for anything

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