But that was based on a low end of estimates, based on what will happen

**with social distancing**.

The OP of that thread tries to put this in context asking a sort of concluding question - "was it worth destroying the economy for this, compared to bad flu years that we tolerate"

This of course begs a question. What would the numbers be without "social distancing"

**One of the biggest errors in thinking about the CV is the assumption that eventually the numbers of deaths are the same**, regardless of social distancing or not. That is, that when you flatten that curve that looks like a normal distribution curve, the area under the curve will be the same, since we know that the area under the normal pdf curve is always 1. I know I was thinking this way early in discussions about "flattening the curve."

In reality the number in the end would not be the same, unless perhaps through a series of recurrences, but even then, a year or two from now we will probably have a vaccine if not more effective treatments, if not sooner.

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The entire CDC and NIAID should be disbanded, as they clearly show bureaucratic incompetence (and regulatory capture) in their recommendations. Dr. Mengele Fauci and Dr. Mengele Birx obviously don't understand science or math, but follow Communist China in their policy recommendations!