patrick.net

The reason stated by Santa Cruz Health person was to try to avoid a surge of people who are in the hospital beyond their ability to take care of them.

This seems to be effective in the county, other places I don’t know.

The problem with the virus will persist until they get a vaccine, if ever. So, people will continue to catch it.

I wonder what would have happened if 1. Everyone wore a mask 2. Old and sick people stayed home 3. 400,000 Chinese hadn’t been allowed in after January. 4. Most people kept working.

I was called back into work after a week furlough, I had to take a 30% pay cut. The company I work for suffered a Ransomware attack in early February, then the CIO at the time. Was playing God games with getting the network back up and running. That's a long story I wont go into, but he tried to pull me into shenanigans when the owner brought in outside Network specialists to expedite the recovery. He tried to get me to stonewall and railroad them. I blew the whistle on him and got him shit caned. The company was already out of millions of dollars after two months, of doing everything pen and phone.
Then as luck would have it, the week the specialists came the shut down happened. They furloughed 90% of the company for three weeks(maybe more). At first I wasn't part of recovery team and was furloughed as well. 90% of our 400 emp company. They called me back to help with the applications configurations and to assist the teams working to get out government orders after a week in.

But I was really enjoying the time at home with the family. I resigned to make the most of the three week furlough, and knew I would be called back eventually. I haven't taken a vacation in three years. I've taken PTO but I had to stay tethered to a computer to log in and do processes and help when needed. This was the first time I felt at ease and was resigned to not feel compelled to check my email and log in to check the status of a process.
I was going to make the most of being at home with my family. I didn't want to look back at this time, when everything gets back to normal and it all worked out. And then remember this time of a time of me worried and losing my shit. Rather than appreciating the rare moment in History, and the golden opportunity I could have sat at home with my family guilt free and enjoyed them.
I have always been one to never blame myself when economic histrionics drive companies and businesses to follow suit and make life altering changes for working people.
Beit being part of a Mass Lay offs, Bad Recessions, 9-11, Pandemics or out sourcing.

Normally I'm driven and pressured to rebound when those aren't in play and I'm out of work due to other circumstances.

I'm working at home remotely, but it's not the same. I'm working and on conference calls a lot now. Where as before that week of total disconnection I had nothing but time and devotion to give to my family. I almost felt like telling the HR guy that reached out to me, "Wait, I still have two weeks left!"

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Let me start by saying I did find many of his arguments compelling.

Although he seems possibly politically biased, considering how one sided. he is. No mention of any benefit whatsoever to the social distancing, such as not overwhelming healthcare system.

He says that if this had just gone it's path, without social distancing, around the ( 6 to 7 min mark on video.) this would peak at about 10,000 deaths. But we will be at 20K in a couple days, and that's WITH social distancing. Social distancing couldn't be causing more deaths than without already. Doesn't quite comport with reality.

Is he a right winger ? It can happen, it's unusual, but it can happen ? That is, a smart person having that kind of bias. Perhaps his childhood was spent in a communist country

In any case yeah, I thought it was mostly compelling. But then I'm a sucker for a confident expert. Glad you finally found an expert to back those emotions.

I have to agree with him. There has probably already been widespread transmission in the United States, and throughout the world. Social distancing might not have slowed transmission significantly for this virus, in which case it will follow a typical pattern for other respiratory virus epidemic/pandemics. The virus will spread throughout the population until there is sufficient immunity to slow it’s spread and then it will slowly fade out. His number of deaths may be off, possibly by a factor of two, but that wouldn’t invalidate his argument, he may just be underestimating the fatality rate.

The infection curves for all the different countries seem to be following a very similar trajectory, despite differences in the countries reaction to the virus and treatment of their patients. This indicates that the infections and virus transmission is following a typical pattern leading to suppression through herd immunity.

PaisleyPattern says

I have to agree with him. There has probably already been widespread transmission in the United States, and throughout the world. Social distancing might not have slowed transmission significantly for this virus, in which case it will follow a typical pattern for other respiratory virus epidemic/pandemics. The virus will spread throughout the population until there is sufficient immunity to slow it’s spread and then it will slowly fade out. His number of deaths may be off, possibly by a factor of two, but that wouldn’t invalidate his argument, he may just be underestimating the fatality rate.

The infection curves for all the different countries seem to be following a very similar trajectory, despite differences in the countries reaction to the virus and treatment of their patients. This indicates that the infections and virus transmission is following a typical pattern leading to suppression through herd immunity.

Social distancing does help, the question is how much damage does it do otherwise? It's best to open up again, let people out if they have masks and require businesses to follow 6 ft rule etc. But partially opening up is the right thing to do. This lockdown is too draconian, I mean closing parks and beaches wtf. If people want to break the distancing they find a way.

mell says

If people want to break the distancing they find a way.

I'm not at all convinced social distancing is making much more than a 5-10% difference, which still would not overwhelm hospitals. And if you account for the side effects of the lockdown, I'd say social distancing and SIP likely washes out the lives saved for CV-19 through other deaths (suicide, heart attack/stress, etc). Potentially causing more death overall.

We get a clearer and clearer picture everyday about what part of society this is killing. They need to prepare and do what they need to do. I have zero intention of wearing a mask, unless I visit someone's house that requests it. It's their place after all. Otherwise don't plan on voluntarily seeing a person 50-60+. That includes my own mother. We need to move on and quickly.

I'll do my part and listen for now, but come May 1st, I really don't give a fuck anymore. I'm am not changing my way of life for fat fucks that aren't going to listen anyway. Time is up tubby. Stay home or die.

"Staying indoors keeps the virus healthy"
Knut Wittkowski

Went for a walk with my wife last evening. Very little traffic. Over the course of our 20 minute walk we ran across two separate households where people were yelling at each other.

I'm working from home. My salary is safe (for now). But I feel for all of the hourly and gig employees that are suffering, wondering when it will end and how they are going to pay their bills.

When will it end? When people stop dying or when they start killing each other. This lock-down is ridiculous.

ThreeBays says

He talks about his ability to do research. Let's see the research then, science means publishing your findings not being a scientist and stating opinions with a political slant.

u

Did you watch the video?

Dr. Knut M. Wittkowski, the former chief bio-statistician and epidemiologist at Rockefeller University Hospital, has "opinions" that are way more educated than the average politician. He knows how viruses spread and realizes this lock-down is a bad idea for so many reasons.

ThreeBays says

Bio-statistician yes, but this guy is not an epidemiologist even if his department has that in the name. You can look at his published papers. His work is around drugs for epilepsy, which is not a contagious disease.

He can be educated and demented at the same time. So many holes in what he says.

lol.... You've got me pissing my pants at this point. Were the Wright Brothers pilots???......... oh...

Blind faith in information is just that. Blind.