Trump March Fundraising Record; Biden has a fraction
invite response
2020 Apr 16, 7:15pm 580 views 5 comments
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1
HeadSet
2020 Apr 16, 8:52pm
HeadSet
2020 Apr 16, 8:52pm
Of course, once Biden is switched out at the Convention for Cuomo or Hillary...
4/16/20 Las Vegas odds:
Donald Trump -125
Joe Biden +125
Andrew Cuomo +3300
Hillary Clinton +5000
4/16/20 Las Vegas odds:
Donald Trump -125
Joe Biden +125
Andrew Cuomo +3300
Hillary Clinton +5000
2
Patrick
2020 Apr 16, 9:27pm
Patrick
2020 Apr 16, 9:27pm
HeadSet says
A listed odd with a – sign in front of it, such as the -125 for Trump above, shows us how much money you would need to wager in order to win $100. So the -125 means that you would need to bet $125 that Trump will win in order to win $100 in profits. (It would be clearer to say that you'd win $80 on a $100 bet, but that's not how they quote them. Anyone know why?)
A listed odd with a + sign in front of it, such as the +125 for Biden above, shows us how much money you would win on a $100 bet. Using the +125 odds, it shows us that a $100 bet on Biden winning would pay out $125 in profits.
Let's say you "Dutch the books" as they say at the track when you bet on every horse. You bet $100 on Trump, and $100 on Biden.
Trump wins: you get $80 but lose your $100 on Biden, so you're $20 behind.
Biden wins: you get $125 but lose your $100 on Trump, so you're $25 ahead.
Summary: the bookmakers think that Trump is going to win bigly.
4/16/20 Las Vegas odds:
Donald Trump -125
Joe Biden +125
Andrew Cuomo +3300
Hillary Clinton +5000
A listed odd with a – sign in front of it, such as the -125 for Trump above, shows us how much money you would need to wager in order to win $100. So the -125 means that you would need to bet $125 that Trump will win in order to win $100 in profits. (It would be clearer to say that you'd win $80 on a $100 bet, but that's not how they quote them. Anyone know why?)
A listed odd with a + sign in front of it, such as the +125 for Biden above, shows us how much money you would win on a $100 bet. Using the +125 odds, it shows us that a $100 bet on Biden winning would pay out $125 in profits.
Let's say you "Dutch the books" as they say at the track when you bet on every horse. You bet $100 on Trump, and $100 on Biden.
Trump wins: you get $80 but lose your $100 on Biden, so you're $20 behind.
Biden wins: you get $125 but lose your $100 on Trump, so you're $25 ahead.
Summary: the bookmakers think that Trump is going to win bigly.
3
HeadSet
2020 Apr 16, 9:41pm
HeadSet
2020 Apr 16, 9:41pm
Summary: the bookmakers think that Trump is going to win bigly.
Yes, that was my point, along with the fact the odds makers do not see Cuomo replacing Biden. If one thinks Cuomo will get the Dem nomination, one may make some bucks.
Biden -1,200
Cuomo +1,400
Yes, that was my point, along with the fact the odds makers do not see Cuomo replacing Biden. If one thinks Cuomo will get the Dem nomination, one may make some bucks.
Biden -1,200
Cuomo +1,400
4
marcus
2020 Apr 16, 9:47pm
marcus
2020 Apr 16, 9:47pm
Patrick says
IT's a reflection of bets that are being made, not what the bookmakers think. Bookmakers just turn around and bet the opposite side of the bet for a slight profit, unless they are speculating that the odds will get more in favor of Trump in which they can speculate and wait to offset it at a bigger profit. It's a market, with bid and offer, their profit is the difference, plus fees perhaps. But they aren't holding the bets til the election. Not if they are big book makers.
Interesting that the IEM has it the reverse of this. These contracts are worth $1 each if you win.
But you can only open an account for $500 or less. It's for the learning experience.
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres20_WTA.cfm
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/pres20_Quotes.html
A little different becasue the winner takes all market is for whomever the democrat candidate is.
There is some kind of arbitrage opportunity here. Bet on Biden, which you can get for +110 at online bookee, and then pay all your friends to buy $ worth of Trump 500 at a time for 40 cents on the dollar. that's -150 maybe pay them $20 for the trouble.
Oh, the difference is it's for who wins the popular vote. So, it's not quite an arbitrage. You could lose both sides of the bet. That explains it.
I guess that particular market reflects it being HIGHLY unlikely that Trump wins the popular vote.
Summary: the bookmakers think that Trump is going to win bigly
IT's a reflection of bets that are being made, not what the bookmakers think. Bookmakers just turn around and bet the opposite side of the bet for a slight profit, unless they are speculating that the odds will get more in favor of Trump in which they can speculate and wait to offset it at a bigger profit. It's a market, with bid and offer, their profit is the difference, plus fees perhaps. But they aren't holding the bets til the election. Not if they are big book makers.
Interesting that the IEM has it the reverse of this. These contracts are worth $1 each if you win.
But you can only open an account for $500 or less. It's for the learning experience.
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres20_WTA.cfm
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/pres20_Quotes.html
A little different becasue the winner takes all market is for whomever the democrat candidate is.
There is some kind of arbitrage opportunity here. Bet on Biden, which you can get for +110 at online bookee, and then pay all your friends to buy $ worth of Trump 500 at a time for 40 cents on the dollar. that's -150 maybe pay them $20 for the trouble.
Oh, the difference is it's for who wins the popular vote. So, it's not quite an arbitrage. You could lose both sides of the bet. That explains it.
I guess that particular market reflects it being HIGHLY unlikely that Trump wins the popular vote.
5
HeadSet
2020 Apr 17, 11:40am
HeadSet
2020 Apr 17, 11:40am
I guess that particular market reflects it being HIGHLY unlikely that Trump wins the popular vote.
True. Trump will win the Electoral College, most of the States, and most of the Counties. Trump will not win the Sanctuary City vote.
True. Trump will win the Electoral College, most of the States, and most of the Counties. Trump will not win the Sanctuary City vote.
....
Democrats have yet to release their March hauls, but at the end of February, Biden's campaign and the DNC held just roughly $20 million combined, accounting for debt held by the national party.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trumps-fundraising-slows-amid-outbreak-sets-records-70114713
Of course, once Biden is switched out at the Convention for Cuomo or Hillary...