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1
WookieMan
2020 Apr 19, 7:28am
WookieMan
2020 Apr 19, 7:28am
You have a link? Not disputing it, but it would shut some up here and we can get onto other shit that they're wrong on...
3
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2020 Apr 19, 7:42am
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2020 Apr 19, 7:42am
WookieMan says
Quite a few Stanford antibody study stories: https://ktla.com/news/california/stanford-antibody-study-estimates-covid-19-infected-at-least-50-times-more-people-than-testing-identified-in-santa-clara-county/
Quite a few Chelsea, MA antibody study stories: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/
Flu fatality rate: https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year
The issue is an emotional one - do we want to see primarily elderly folks die quickly or, as with the flu, over time.
You have a link? Not disputing it, but it would shut some up here and we can get onto other shit that they're wrong on...
Quite a few Stanford antibody study stories: https://ktla.com/news/california/stanford-antibody-study-estimates-covid-19-infected-at-least-50-times-more-people-than-testing-identified-in-santa-clara-county/
Quite a few Chelsea, MA antibody study stories: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/
Flu fatality rate: https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year
The issue is an emotional one - do we want to see primarily elderly folks die quickly or, as with the flu, over time.
4
Onvacation
2020 Apr 19, 9:56am
Onvacation
2020 Apr 19, 9:56am
willywonka says
I'd prefer the quick death.
The issue is an emotional one - do we want to see primarily elderly folks die quickly or, as with the flu, over time.
I'd prefer the quick death.
5
Ceffer
2020 Apr 19, 10:55am
Ceffer
2020 Apr 19, 10:55am
That makes three of these immunologic studies so far, projecting less than 0.1 percent fatality rate. Of course, there are those believe the flu rates are also purposely exaggerated in order to sell flu vaccine.
More studies coming out in next couple of weeks.
More studies coming out in next couple of weeks.
6
WookieMan
2020 Apr 19, 12:12pm
WookieMan
2020 Apr 19, 12:12pm
logic says
....And demographics, population density, underlying conditions, and on and on. There's simply not enough data to justify the reaction. The data we do have tells a pretty clear picture. The "experts" say as much. If you're above 50-60, take pills for anything, smoke, live in a city or nursing home, your best bet is to stay home and don't have people visit.
Get groceries delivered. If you have caretakers, make sure they're sanitized and wearing masks when dealing with you. If you have someone in this situation, make sure the facility is taking all measure to do this. Deaths are slashed by 80% if we just do that alone with no vaccine. It's not as dire as the media is making it out to be.
Santa Clara county had the highest infection rate at the start of this in CA. I don't think extrapolatin from that county really gives you an accurate picture of the whole state. A virus spreads from one area to another, one would need data from different parts of a state to do any sort of accurate extrapolation.
....And demographics, population density, underlying conditions, and on and on. There's simply not enough data to justify the reaction. The data we do have tells a pretty clear picture. The "experts" say as much. If you're above 50-60, take pills for anything, smoke, live in a city or nursing home, your best bet is to stay home and don't have people visit.
Get groceries delivered. If you have caretakers, make sure they're sanitized and wearing masks when dealing with you. If you have someone in this situation, make sure the facility is taking all measure to do this. Deaths are slashed by 80% if we just do that alone with no vaccine. It's not as dire as the media is making it out to be.
9
Ceffer
2020 Apr 19, 1:21pm
Ceffer
2020 Apr 19, 1:21pm
Tim Aurora says
'Anecdotal' and 'evidence' shouldn't be used in the same phrase, but for you, I'll make an exception.
There is anecdotal evidence that the infection rate is indeed much higher
'Anecdotal' and 'evidence' shouldn't be used in the same phrase, but for you, I'll make an exception.
10
Ceffer
2020 Apr 19, 1:25pm
Ceffer
2020 Apr 19, 1:25pm
We would expect our resident agitprop repeating stations to be clinging to any leaky raft of manipulated, exaggerated, forged, or falsified Covid deaths, without apology or retraction.
11
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2020 Apr 19, 1:30pm
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2020 Apr 19, 1:30pm
Tim Aurora says
There is anecdotal evidence that the infection rate is indeed much higherYou don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
12
Ceffer
2020 Apr 19, 1:38pm
Ceffer
2020 Apr 19, 1:38pm
Tim Aurora says
Don't do that. You'll give me a heart attack.
I agree . It is an oxymoron
Ceffer says'Anecdotal' and 'evidence' shouldn't be used in the same phrase, but for you, I'll make an exception.
Don't do that. You'll give me a heart attack.
13
Ceffer
2020 Apr 19, 1:51pm
Ceffer
2020 Apr 19, 1:51pm
Strange, they never published such reservations with the 'garbage in, garbage out' tests and techniques they have been using to fan the flames so far. They are only 'rigorous' with things that don't fit the narrative?
14
HeadSet
2020 Apr 19, 3:06pm
HeadSet
2020 Apr 19, 3:06pm
Don't do that. You'll give me a heart attack.
And it will be counted as a Covid-19 death....
And it will be counted as a Covid-19 death....
15
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2020 Apr 19, 3:38pm
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2020 Apr 19, 3:38pm
logic says
willywonka saysWhy such regional variation in flu exposure? https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/pdf/External_F1211.pdf1/3 of a randomly sampled population in Chelsea, MA test positive for antibodies to COVID-19willywonka says2.5% - 4.2% of Santa Clara, CA residents are positive for exposure to the virus.
Hmmmmm, if this extrapolation technique works so well then why doesn't santa Clara have the same antibody/exposure rate as Chelsea?
16
Ceffer
2020 Apr 19, 5:51pm
Ceffer
2020 Apr 19, 5:51pm
HeadSet says
Probably twenty or thirty.
Don't do that. You'll give me a heart attack.
And it will be counted as a Covid-19 death....
Probably twenty or thirty.
17
Bd6r
2020 Apr 19, 9:54pm
Bd6r
2020 Apr 19, 9:54pm
logic says
Perhaps such knowledge would have been helpful also to officials and media who screamed about potential for trillions of deaths from COVID. But I now I am dreaming...they will never learn
How many here have ever had to learn about error analysis?
Perhaps such knowledge would have been helpful also to officials and media who screamed about potential for trillions of deaths from COVID. But I now I am dreaming...they will never learn
18
WookieMan
2020 Apr 20, 5:38am
WookieMan
2020 Apr 20, 5:38am
PeopleUnited says
A few local sources are doing their job....
https://www.startribune.com/all-10-winona-county-virus-deaths-linked-to-care-facilities/569775292/
WookieMan says
Not complicated. This virus wipes out old people places. 72% of the dead in the county cited were in old people places. Lock. Them. The. Fuck. Down. And this goes away. Give them money, healthcare for free, whatever. Open back up.
WookieMan saysIt's not as dire as the media is making it out to be.
+1000
A few local sources are doing their job....
https://www.startribune.com/all-10-winona-county-virus-deaths-linked-to-care-facilities/569775292/
Minnesota has recorded 134 fatalities from COVID-19, and 97 of them were people who lived in long-term care settings, including nursing homes and other senior living and care settings, according to the daily update from the Minnesota Department of Health. Ten of Sunday’s 13 reported deaths involved people in long-term care.
WookieMan says
Get groceries delivered. If you have caretakers, make sure they're sanitized and wearing masks when dealing with you. If you have someone in this situation, make sure the facility is taking all measure to do this. Deaths are slashed by 80% if we just do that alone with no vaccine. It's not as dire as the media is making it out to be.
Not complicated. This virus wipes out old people places. 72% of the dead in the county cited were in old people places. Lock. Them. The. Fuck. Down. And this goes away. Give them money, healthcare for free, whatever. Open back up.
19
HeadSet
2020 Apr 20, 6:57am
HeadSet
2020 Apr 20, 6:57am
logic says
The only meat in that article is a measured 2 false positives out of 401 tests. I am no intellectual, but it seems "fishy" to me that a Poisson distribution is used (pun intended) to hunt for false positives, as if false positives is an "event occurrence." I would see Poisson used more to model something like calls that come in to a Taxi company (I am a bit biased here, as call forecasting is important where I work).
Maybe Marcus could add something here.
ThreeBays saysI'll just leave this here for the few who can think.
Poisson distribution, that really takes me back. How many here have ever had to learn about error analysis? I'm guessing not to many.
The only meat in that article is a measured 2 false positives out of 401 tests. I am no intellectual, but it seems "fishy" to me that a Poisson distribution is used (pun intended) to hunt for false positives, as if false positives is an "event occurrence." I would see Poisson used more to model something like calls that come in to a Taxi company (I am a bit biased here, as call forecasting is important where I work).
Maybe Marcus could add something here.
A recent Stanford U. study estimates that between 2.5% - 4.2% of Santa Clara, CA residents are positive for exposure to the virus. Population of California = 39.5 million. Extrapolating, between 1 million - 1.7 million have been infected so far. California fatalities to date = 1,072. Infection fatality rate (IFR) is between = 1,072/1 million = 0.01% - 1,072/1.7 million = 0.06%.
IFR for the common flu = 0.1%.