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Don't believe the polls: Trump's populist presidency may carry him to victory in 2020

By Patrick follow Patrick   2020 Jun 21, 11:01am 731 views   82 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/503714-dont-believe-the-polls-trumps-populist-presidency-may-carry-him-to-victory

After all, if all the polling data up to the day of the 2016 election was correct, Hillary Clinton would be president. Polling is an art as well as a science. Evaluating raw polling data depends on the perceptions — or misperceptions — of those doing the polling.

President Trump’s enduring strength emanates from his being a populist president. Populist candidates and leaders, like Trump, reach out to the common citizens who believe that their interests and concerns have not been addressed by the established government, economic, and social institutions. Trump pledged to be the voice of the forgotten man and woman.

Trump’s populist messages and actions in office have been directed towards his loyal and supportive base — the “forgotten,” the non-college educated and working class (especially in small towns and rural areas), Evangelical Christians and social and cultural conservatives, as well as conservative Republicans.

And it’s working. ...

Democrats, barring a charismatic and transformative candidate like Barack Obama — which Biden is not — need a robust economic plan based on a rebirth of the manufacturing base. The tragedy of an America dependent on foreign suppliers — even for its own medical equipment, protective masks and garments — is reason enough to rebuild our manufacturing capacity.

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43   komputodo   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 22, 10:08pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

FuckCCP89 says
Sorry boys, the cake is baked.

yes it is and has been for the last 2 years..Trump rolls to victory in 2020 and libs go bezerk and start burning shit...winning is hard...lol....especially with a candidate with alzheimers.
44   komputodo   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 22, 10:13pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
And as for Trump, since 1985, he's been known to be a complete sleazebag
|
Isn't that an impeachable offense?
45   komputodo   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 22, 10:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

rdm says
Trump won because people hated Hillary more than they feared Trump.

Do you fear Trump? lol..And the corona virus, climate change, North korea, Russia, China, etc? That's a lot of fear for one person.
46   NoCoupForYou   ignore (4)   2020 Jun 22, 10:22pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
So no, it's not 'we all', it's the we of Iowa, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Minnesota, Georgia, etc.


I re-registered in Brevard, where I own a home, from Broward, where I was getting mail.

I'm 99% sure my vote wasn't counted by Snipes in 2016.
48   rdm   ignore (2)   2020 Jun 23, 12:01pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says

Not true, the party of Bill and now, Hillary Clinton, have turned corporatist


And the Republicans are not? Look at the tax bill. Trump has economic populist rhetoric but the results speak otherwise. The rest of the Republican party is totally corporatist, even in rhetoric.
Rin says

Even Biden told coal miners to taking coding classes


Coal is essentially dead, as it should be. Why do we need 19th century energy sources in the 21st?

Rin says
Trump, since 1985, he's been known to be a complete sleazebag. Little has changed since then, but ppl still voted for him

People actually believe(d) he was a successful and competent businessman, he is neither but the con worked(s). That plus hatred of Hillary, the evangelicals and the I want a tax cut and don't give a shit about anything elsers', as well as populist and xenophobic rhetoric and he squeaked by in Penn, Mich. and Wisc. for the win. Don't see it happening again. He has not expanded his support, has shown his abject incompetence and corruption. Can he maintain in the states he won against Biden is the question and it looks unlikely, possible, but unlikely.
49   socal2   ignore (1)   2020 Jun 23, 12:26pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

rdm says
I must admit I didn't know what "cancel culture" is. I could care less, from a personal standpoint it is meaningless.


FFS - it is kind of you to admit that you live in a total bubble.

In case you have missed it over the last few weeks, our Founding Fathers are getting "cancelled" all over the country being called racists and having their statues ripped down by your Taliban brothers.

The National Anthem is being cancelled at sporting events. Aunt Jemima? Eskimo Pies? Uncle Bens?

Our entire fucking history is being cancelled with the NYTimes B.S. 1619 project now being taught at our schools.
50   komputodo   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 23, 12:35pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

socal2 says
Our entire fucking history is being cancelled with the NYTimes B.S. 1619 project now being taught at our schools.

History isn't statues...it's in your mind...It's your job to teach your children.
51   TrumpingTits   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 23, 12:41pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

socal2 says
I keenly remember all the polls weeks and months before the 2016 election showing Trump 10+ points behind Clinton in National and several Battleground State polls.


52   SunnyvaleCA   ignore (1)   2020 Jun 23, 12:43pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Do we yet have a "poorly phrased" statement from either candidate such that, when he loses, we can point to it and pretend that was the defining moment? I'm thinking something like Romney's "47 percent" or "Binders full of women." For Hillary it's the "basket of deplorables."
53   TrumpingTits   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 23, 12:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

rdm says
Coal is essentially dead, as it should be


Tell that to the Indians, Chinese and a whole slew of nations that don't seem to give a flying fuck what rdm says on the subject.

They are building new coal plants and plan to build more, while outright lying about it.
54   SunnyvaleCA   ignore (1)   2020 Jun 23, 12:46pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

TrumpingTits says
rdm says
Coal is essentially dead, as it should be


Tell that to the Indians, Chinese and a whole slew of nations that don't seem to give a flying fuck what rdm says on the subject.

They are building new coal plants and plan to build more, while outright lying about it.
Well said. It was amazing to me a few months ago when at lunch with colleagues how clueless they are about coal. Their thinking was that if just those "backwards" people in Pennsylvania would stop mining coal we'd be halfway towards global cooling or something. Nobody would believe the enormous rate at which China is building new coal-fired plants until I found information on the internet.
55   socal2   ignore (1)   2020 Jun 23, 12:58pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

komputodo says
History isn't statues...it's in your mind...It's your job to teach your children.


Sure - but when your kids come home from school being taught bastardized Howard Zinn or 1619 History, it makes it alot harder to keep your kids from turning into Democrat retards.
56   komputodo   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 23, 7:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

socal2 says
komputodo says
History isn't statues...it's in your mind...It's your job to teach your children.


Sure - but when your kids come home from school being taught bastardized Howard Zinn or 1619 History, it makes it alot harder to keep your kids from turning into Democrat retards.

Nobody ever said that raising children properly was easy.
57   just_adhom_preaching   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 23, 7:50pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

socal2 says
Sure - but when your kids come home from school being taught bastardized Howard Zinn or 1619 History, it makes it alot harder to keep your kids from turning into Democrat retards.


This and other influences make me wonder how positive the posts I've seen on here about how the shit stains on the left aren't reproducing anymore vs. the religious right. Many get picked off. Many desire to be picked off.

Although I hope the prediction comes true.
58   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Jun 23, 8:16pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Tempting to move back to Michigan to vote there. I lived there for quite a while.
59   just_adhom_preaching   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 23, 8:24pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Maybe it's best if people worry trump won't get elected again.
60   just_adhom_preaching   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 23, 8:25pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
I lived there for quite a while.


I'm considering helping out in Florida eventually. It's the furthest mainland from CA. Might be sooner than I'd planned.
61   Rin   ignore (7)   2020 Jun 23, 8:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

rdm says
People actually believe(d) he was a successful and competent businessman


Nobody believes that a casino owner is anything less than a shady operator and Trump has never truly shaken that image, despite the success of 'The Apprentice'. So yes, he's a success story but is clearly not viewed as a Steve Jobs type of industry hero, but that of an antihero, a guy who mingles with the mob.

Think Vin Diesel/Jason Statham/Snake Plissken, not Captain America.

rdm says
Rin says
And if Cenk Uygur's show is any indication, even the politically moderate-to-progressive Trump haters don't believe in Biden because he can't inspire anyone, living in the swing states, esp young voters at places like Dayton, Indianapolis, etc. With that in mind, many won't show up and Trump wins the areas which he needs to win.


I don't think he is any indication, he is a sour grapes leftist.


It's strange but until Super Tuesday, I would have agreed but then afterwards, I've heard Mass and NY Democratic moderates wail on their own party for caving in and agreeing to a sock puppet for plutocrats, like Biden. And then one of them, an old classmate from college, mentioned Cenk, as a guy who up until a year ago, he'd thought was a useless talking head; and then he agreed with him, saying that they expected much more their party since 2017, just like Cenk, but w/o too much love for either Bernie or Warren.

Now, these are mature/older Massholes and New Yorkers, imagine the rust belt where there's even less interest in the party of the Clintons. And Cenk's main audience are the younger voters which include places like Ohio State, Indiana U, etc. If none of those younger voters come out to vote for Biden, then Biden's toast in the midwest outside of Chicago.


rdm says
Coal is essentially dead, as it should be. Why do we need 19th century energy sources in the 21st?


You miss the point of the sentiment, it's not the actuality of coal vs natural gas vs some other energy source. Telling 'em to 'code' is saying "let 'em eat cake" since most coal miners know that they can't compete against young Carnegie-Mellon grads who BTW, live just next door in Pittsburgh. Remember, you're not trying to get the vote of State Street workers in greater Boston, who already have a BS job (Read: white collar sinecure) doing nothing all day but collecting management fees from their clients.



Patrick says
Tempting to move back to Michigan to vote there. I lived there for quite a while.


just_dregalicious says
I'm considering helping out in Florida eventually.


Ok, now you guys are talking. If you want to make your vote count, then this is exactly what needs to be done. All votes in these states: California, Massachusetts, New York, Illinois (since it's really greater Chicago), Maryland, Vermont, and a few others, don't count.

And for the most part, you just need a utility or rental bill to get on the voting roster. Get an old friend to sublet a storage space, get your bill, register, and vote.
62   Rin   ignore (7)   2020 Jun 23, 8:55pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

komputodo says
rdm says
Trump won because people hated Hillary more than they feared Trump.

Do you fear Trump? lol..And the corona virus, climate change, North korea, Russia, China, etc? That's a lot of fear for one person.


Aside from rdm, the rest of the public is afraid of rioting mobs, endless wars in the middle east, and of course the job market.

Since Trump isn't actually Robespierre and sending in these mobs, antifa or not, into the cities then people won't fear him. Realize, Trump's threatened to send in the US army but has still held back, letting the local governors and majors deal with the situation. So where's Robespierre? Most Americans would be scared if he were President or an unofficial Dictator-at-large creating havoc wherever he goes?

As for the middle east, there hasn't been a new war in years. And I've already created a whole thread on the number of US troops abroad so that's a strawman.

https://patrick.net/post/1329577/2020-01-08-rin-s-real-politik-on-trump-s-war-policy-part-ii

And finally, the job market ... hey, guess what? We're in a pandemic (with a forced shutdown) and a lot of ppl are able to collect unemployment with added payments up to $600/week more than the standard UI. Well, that about all one can do under the circumstances.
63   just_adhom_preaching   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 23, 8:58pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
Steve Jobs type of industry hero


But Steve is dead and Donald is not! Don would have listened to the docs unlike Steve who'd still be alive today! Plus apple sucks balls these days anyway. Ever see those Louis Rossmann vids:
64   TrumpingTits   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 23, 9:12pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

SunnyvaleCA says
TrumpingTits says
rdm says
Coal is essentially dead, as it should be


Tell that to the Indians, Chinese and a whole slew of nations that don't seem to give a flying fuck what rdm says on the subject.

They are building new coal plants and plan to build more, while outright lying about it.
Well said. It was amazing to me a few months ago when at lunch with colleagues how clueless they are about coal. Their thinking was that if just those "backwards" people in Pennsylvania would stop mining coal we'd be halfway towards global cooling or something. Nobody would believe the enormous rate at which China is building new coal-fired plants until I found information on the internet.


...and add Japan to that list:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/climate/japan-coal-fukushima.html
65   just_adhom_preaching   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 23, 9:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

TrumpingTits says
...and add Japan to that list:


ARLP!

(kidding)
66   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Jun 23, 10:49pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

just_dregalicious says
ARLP!


Not looking too good lately:



I bought at 19, sold at 20, got some nice dividends in between. But really, it was dumb and I'm lucky I got out whole.
67   komputodo   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 24, 2:55pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

socal2 says
komputodo says
History isn't statues...it's in your mind...It's your job to teach your children.


Sure - but when your kids come home from school being taught bastardized Howard Zinn or 1619 History, it makes it alot harder to keep your kids from turning into Democrat retards.

Look at it in another light...Your kids will get 2 opposing viewpoints instead of straight up indoctrination. This will be a lesson in critical thinking. It's much better to learn how to think instead of just memorization.
68   socal2   ignore (1)   2020 Jun 25, 11:42am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

This is a powerful GOP ad that I think will get alot of traction over the next 4 months.

70   mell   ignore (5)   2020 Jun 25, 1:15pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Every rays! Cyst! Name change is +100 voters for Orange! MAN! BAD!
71   rdm   ignore (2)   2020 Jun 25, 1:45pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

TrumpingTits says
rdm says
Coal is essentially dead, as it should be


Tell that to the Indians, Chinese and a whole slew of nations that don't seem to give a flying fuck what rdm says on the subject.

They are building new coal plants and plan to build more, while outright lying about it.
Well said. It was amazing to me a few months ago when at lunch with colleagues how clueless they are about coal. Their thinking was that if just those "backwards" people in Pennsylvania would stop mining coal we'd be halfway towards global cooling or something. Nobody would believe the enormous rate at which China is building new coal-fired plants until I found information on the internet.


...and add Japan to that list:


The point is in this country coal is on its way out, Trumps much balloyed resurrection strategy has done little to nothing. Market forces are doing what environmentalists were unable to accomplish...in this country. If other countries wish to use a filthy 19th century fuel there isn't much we can do about it. Plus it has gotten so mechanized that the number of jobs is quite small. Trump can and will have W. Virginia and Kentucky Dem fuckups or not. He needs Mich. Wisc. and Penn. right now they look like a reach. And he has no where to expand his map from 2016 while Biden does. The trend is your friend and the trend for now looks bleak for the Maga Boy 2020. Enjoy his ineptitude while you have him.
72   rdm   ignore (2)   2020 Jun 25, 1:53pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
And for the most part, you just need a utility or rental bill to get on the voting roster


Surely you have to be a legal resident of the state you vote in? Don't want you encouraging voter fraud. Of course only Dems do that. From what I understand residence typically requires having your permanent residence there for 6 months plus a day, there are exceptions. I could be wrong but I know people who do this in Florida to avoid both the cold and the income tax in a northern state.
73   Rin   ignore (7)   2020 Jun 25, 1:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

rdm says
having your permanent residence there for 6 months plus a day


Already done.
74   socal2   ignore (1)   2020 Jun 25, 2:11pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

rdm says
Market forces are doing what environmentalists were unable to accomplish...in this country.


Yep - despite the Environmental Commie's best efforts, Market Forces have displaced coal with cleaner burning Natural Gas thanks to the miracle of fracking - making us an energy exporter and reducing our carbon footprint.

If Hillary was President, America would still be sucking OPEC and Russia's cock needing their dirty oil while increasing our carbon emissions.
75   TrumpingTits   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 25, 4:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

rdm says

The point is in this country coal is on its way out,


No, you didn't say that. You are moving the goal posts when you were outed for saying bullshit, that's all.

And while it will never come back from before Obama destroyed it, it isn't on the way out because of export markets to other nations like China, India and Japan. We will -- if we aren't already -- become a net coal exporter just like we are a net oil exporter.
76   Rin   ignore (7)   2020 Jun 25, 4:30pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

TrumpingTits says
And while it will never come back from before Obama destroyed it, it isn't on the way out because of export markets to other nations like China, India and Japan. We will -- if we aren't already -- become a net coal exporter just like we are a net oil exporter.


This is true and coal is also a base component for both the chemical industries as well as steel manufacturing. It doesn't have to be strictly used for power generation though South Africa (Sasol corp) has successfully converted coal to gasoline for decades. The US also has a Sasol type of facility up in North Dakota.
77   rdm   ignore (2)   2020 Jun 25, 4:48pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

TrumpingTits says

No, you didn't say that. You are moving the goal posts when you were outed for saying bullshit, that's all


Yeah, whatever, "Coal is essentially dead, as it should be" was made in the context of Biden and Clinton's statements in coal country. Try reading the whole thread its about the election.

TrumpingTits says
We will -- if we aren't already -- become a net coal exporter j


And still the industry is dying, or is there an argument that it is thriving after 3.5 years of Trump? If you think exports will save the Eastern mining jobs, better get your ticket on Mr. Peabody's train before they are sold out. The export market is or was primarily for low sulfur coal mined by strip mining in the West. Oh that's a beautiful thing to base your economy on.
78   Rin   ignore (7)   2020 Jun 25, 4:52pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Coal mining, as a long term career, won't come back.

But instead of training ppl to become let's say an HVAC repairmen (Amy Klobuchar's idea) instead of telling 'em to get a computer science degree or attend Yale Law, is not the way to win the vote of the rust belt worker.

Both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, played the white collar card to their disadvantage.
79   rdm   ignore (2)   2020 Jun 25, 4:54pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
It doesn't have to be strictly used for power generation though South Africa (Sasol corp) has successfully converted coal to gasoline for decades. The US also has a Sasol type of facility up in North Dakota.


True and how does that compete in a world awash in oil? Countries convert coal to a liquid fuel typically because they cant buy oil, for one reason or another. It makes little to no economic sense, particularly today.
80   rdm   ignore (2)   2020 Jun 25, 5:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
But instead of training ppl to become let's say an HVAC repairmen (Amy Klobuchar's idea) instead of telling 'em to get a computer science degree or attend Yale Law, is not the way to win the vote of the rust belt worker.

Both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, played the white collar card to their disadvantage.


Yes I agree. So Trump lied to them and The Dems didn't understand that these guys had honorable professions that provided for their families and now they are fucked. But its not coming back. I think Biden has a better understanding of this than Clinton. Whether he can enunciate clearly and connect to these guys like the the Dems of old is another question.
81   Rin   ignore (7)   2020 Jun 25, 5:02pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

rdm says
Whether he can enunciate clearly and connect to these guys like the the Dems of old is another question.


So far, it isn't happening. In fact, he can't even connect with Massachusetts/Vermont moderates, his base.

And I doubt anything will change between now and mid-Oct, as his dementia or let's say early-onset dementia, becomes more apparent.
82   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   ignore (7)   2020 Jun 25, 5:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

socal2 says
rdm says
I must admit I didn't know what "cancel culture" is. I could care less, from a personal standpoint it is meaningless.


FFS - it is kind of you to admit that you live in a total bubble.

In case you have missed it over the last few weeks, our Founding Fathers are getting "cancelled" all over the country being called racists and having their statues ripped down by your Taliban brothers.

The National Anthem is being cancelled at sporting events. Aunt Jemima? Eskimo Pies? Uncle Bens?

Our entire fucking history is being cancelled with the NYTimes B.S. 1619 project now being taught at our schools.


Maybe a Euro. There was another poster here (or probably the same person under a different screen name) who claimed he had never heard of the TV show cops.

It’s impossible that an American hasn’t heard of a e decade long television show that is so deeply ingrained in American culture...akin to any American aged 35 or older claiming not to know what The Dukes of Hazard is.

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