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Don't believe the polls: Trump's populist presidency may carry him to victory in 2020


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2020 Jun 21, 11:01am   2,503 views  72 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/503714-dont-believe-the-polls-trumps-populist-presidency-may-carry-him-to-victory

After all, if all the polling data up to the day of the 2016 election was correct, Hillary Clinton would be president. Polling is an art as well as a science. Evaluating raw polling data depends on the perceptions — or misperceptions — of those doing the polling.

President Trump’s enduring strength emanates from his being a populist president. Populist candidates and leaders, like Trump, reach out to the common citizens who believe that their interests and concerns have not been addressed by the established government, economic, and social institutions. Trump pledged to be the voice of the forgotten man and woman.

Trump’s populist messages and actions in office have been directed towards his loyal and supportive base — the “forgotten,” the non-college educated and working class (especially in small towns and rural areas), Evangelical Christians and social and cultural conservatives, as well as conservative Republicans.

And it’s working. ...

Democrats, barring a charismatic and transformative candidate like Barack Obama — which Biden is not — need a robust economic plan based on a rebirth of the manufacturing base. The tragedy of an America dependent on foreign suppliers — even for its own medical equipment, protective masks and garments — is reason enough to rebuild our manufacturing capacity.

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1   Ceffer   2020 Jun 21, 5:11pm  

Chinese respirators along with Covid killed lots of Yankee Running Dogs.
2   BayArea   2020 Jun 21, 5:15pm  

After 2016, is anyone seriously bringing up polls? LOL
3   AD   2020 Jun 21, 5:41pm  

.

Real Clear Politics had Clinton ahead of Trump in its final poll at 3.3%. The final result was she won the popular vote by 2.1%, Some of the national polls like Monmouth pool had Clinton up by at least 6% the week before the election.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

.
4   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Jun 21, 5:49pm  

Libs keep forgetting we don't have a national popular vote.

We have a state-by-state popular vote for the most part.

It doesn't matter if Trump loses by 100,000 or 1M or 3M in California or New York.

It matters if Trump wins by 1,000 or 10,000 in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin.
5   Booger   2020 Jun 21, 5:58pm  

https://nypost.com/2020/06/20/trumps-primary-vote-totals-trounce-previous-incumbents-numbers/

Trump’s primary vote totals trounce previous incumbents’ numbers


6   Ceffer   2020 Jun 21, 6:19pm  

They aren't called polls any more, they are called 'agitprop statistics of convenience'.
7   mell   2020 Jun 21, 6:21pm  

How do you feel about Donald Trump?

a) badly!

b) doubleplusungood!

c) rays!cyst!
8   clambo   2020 Jun 21, 6:56pm  

The media is going all out spreading FUD about Trump.

I succumbed to CBS News tonight at a friend’s place (June 21) and it was constant “Trump’s in trouble.”

Evidently some people figured out how to request tickets to the Trump rally in Tulsa who had no intention of going, and there were angry protesters outside.

So, the stadium wasn’t full to CBS satisfaction, and Trump is “in trouble.”

Of course Biden couldn’t fill a high school gym.

Then some Obama attorney guy finally got fired and they said this was “more trouble for the Trump administration.”

Of course the Wuhan virus panic is still being spread, “new cases abound.” Etc.

The rest was other liberal bullshit nonsense.
9   AD   2020 Jun 21, 7:25pm  

Real Clear Politics showed Clinton winning Michigan by 3.4% on eve of election day 2016.

RCP had Clinton winning Pennsylvania by 1.9%.

Also RCP had Clinton winning Wisconsin by 6.5%.
10   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2020 Jun 21, 7:39pm  

mell says
How do you feel about Donald Trump?

a) badly!

b) doubleplusungood!

c) rays!cyst!


Is it worse when President Trump:

-send babies to the gas chambers?

-puts puppies in the meat grinder?
11   rocketjoe79   2020 Jun 22, 8:56am  

He might lose the popular vote again. California is a huge lump of votes for demos - but California can only carry so many Electoral college votes. If the poll data were cross-referenced with EC, then we'd have a better idea. By age, Trump carries the vote dramatically over age 45. More older people vote. And I believe older folks will still get out of their chairs, put on a mask and vote - or mail it in.

Trump's "disaster" rally in Tulsa was only thousands. During a pandemic. How big as Biden's last "rally"? Oh, yeah, he's still in the bunker.
Wait until Biden chooses Kamala as his running mate. She'll do 90% of the talking on the campaign trail. Sleepy Joe will get pumped up with caffeine and Ginko Biloba for special events.

I give it a 80% chance there will be no presidential debates. It would be political suicide for Biden.
12   theoakman   2020 Jun 22, 10:57am  

They had Clinton up big 2 weeks out and they supposedly shifted closer once Comey reopened the investigation from that pedophile Weiner's laptop. Trump closed the gap slightly but they still had him getting his ass handed to him come election day. I just can't see anyone excited for Biden.
13   theoakman   2020 Jun 22, 10:58am  

For what it's worth, I was at the Jersey Shore last week. At the marina, there were 10 boats in a row flying trump flags while docked. This is a dark blue state.
14   RC2006   2020 Jun 22, 11:00am  

theoakman says
For what it's worth, I was at the Jersey Shore last week. At the marina, there were 10 boats in a row flying trump flags while docked. This is a dark blue state.


They know its safe on water.
15   rdm   2020 Jun 22, 11:31am  

Sorry boys, the cake is baked. Sure the polls were off some in 2016 and could be off some now. And the electoral college, and Biden and and and and. It isn't going to be enough. You can spend 5 billion demonizing Biden, it wont work. People will vote against Trump to throw him out. Biden doesn't need to do much of anything. Just breathe, pick a halfway decent VP, not use the N word and he wins. Even massive voter suppression probably wont work. people showed in Wisc. and Georgia they will risk getting sick and spending a day standing inline at a friggin primary. A blood bath awaits the Republicans. People that hate Trump outnumber those that love him to the point that even the electoral college can't pull his tiny walnuts out of the fire.
16   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Jun 22, 11:40am  

Nope, despite 5 years of Media Bashing and Blackguarding constantly, the COVID Hype, and the Left Wing Riots, Trump's approval never goes below the low 40s, that's his Floor.

There's overwhelming enthusiasm from Trump supporters, and bupkiss enthusiasm from Biden Supporters. Shit, we couldn't get Dems on this board to pick a few frontrunners before Super Tuesday was fixed by the DNC. And Biden's name never came up.

The Democrats are lucky their convention is planned to be virtual, otherwise Bastard Little Marxists and Anarchists would be rioting outside of it, and we'd have 68 Convention all over again.
17   socal2   2020 Jun 22, 11:50am  

rdm says
Sorry boys, the cake is baked. Sure the polls were off some in 2016 and could be off some now. And the electoral college, and Biden and and and and. It isn't going to be enough.


Even before the riots, I counted half a dozen SoCal friends (surfers and neighbors) who all said they were going to vote for Trump this year and were previously Obama and Hillary voters. I didn't vote for Trump in 2016 and will enthusiastically vote for him in November.

Then the COVID lock-downs and riots hit and apolitical and left-leaning people like my wife were red-pilled. She can't believe how crazy the Democrats have become and has openly told our children that she will hold her nose and vote for Trump this year. California's AB-5 law punishing gig workers isn't helping Democrats either.

I know this only anecdotal, but don't believe Trump will lose more of his 2016 voters compared to who he will gain in 2020.
18   mell   2020 Jun 22, 12:01pm  

rdm says
Sorry boys, the cake is baked. Sure the polls were off some in 2016 and could be off some now. And the electoral college, and Biden and and and and. It isn't going to be enough. You can spend 5 billion demonizing Biden, it wont work. People will vote against Trump to throw him out. Biden doesn't need to do much of anything. Just breathe, pick a halfway decent VP, not use the N word and he wins. Even massive voter suppression probably wont work. people showed in Wisc. and Georgia they will risk getting sick and spending a day standing inline at a friggin primary. A blood bath awaits the Republicans. People that hate Trump outnumber those that love him to the point that even the electoral college can't pull his tiny walnuts out of the fire.


Why are you gloating about this? You think if they come to cancel you you show them that you didn't vote for Trump and they leave you alone? Fat chance. Ok you don't like Trump and have your reasons, but voting against cancel culture is more important for your own good than voting against Trump. If the leftoids were what they used to be during the Bill Clinton era that would be a different ballgame.
19   RC2006   2020 Jun 22, 12:15pm  

If the left wins after such bad behavior it will embolden them to become even worse. Their existence is a based on a fallacy of some communist utopian dream that in no way shape or form works in the real world with humans and the flaws we all carry. Trump has to win to bring them the harsh reality that not everyone agrees with what they think or what they have been taught in their bubble, just like sometimes the right needs the same knocked off their high horse.

I think if the left didn’t mindlessly go after Trump like a bunch of raving lunatics the last four years and had a mediocre candidate this would have been an easy win for them but instead, they kept doubling down on crazy. Burning down everything that has to do with the successful civilization that build everything is no way to a victory.
20   socal2   2020 Jun 22, 12:36pm  

ad says
Real Clear Politics had Clinton ahead of Trump in its final poll at 3.3%. The final result was she won the popular vote by 2.1%, Some of the national polls like Monmouth pool had Clinton up by at least 6% the week before the election.


Pollsters always tighten up their data the week before the election so they can show that their final polls were only a few points off and cover up all their push polling.

I keenly remember all the polls weeks and months before the 2016 election showing Trump 10+ points behind Clinton in National and several Battleground State polls.
21   komputodo   2020 Jun 22, 12:49pm  

Patrick says
Polling is an art as well as a science.

Its neither...its a fraud...especially now when people are afraid to speak their mind due to cancel culture.
22   RWSGFY   2020 Jun 22, 1:26pm  

rdm says
Sorry boys, the cake is baked. Sure the polls were off some in 2016 and could be off some now. And the electoral college, and Biden and and and and. It isn't going to be enough. You can spend 5 billion demonizing Biden, it wont work. People will vote against Trump to throw him out. Biden doesn't need to do much of anything. Just breathe, pick a halfway decent VP, not use the N word and he wins. Even massive voter suppression probably wont work. people showed in Wisc. and Georgia they will risk getting sick and spending a day standing inline at a friggin primary. A blood bath awaits the Republicans. People that hate Trump outnumber those that love him to the point that even the electoral college can't pull his tiny walnuts out of the fire.


Good. Make sure to inform all your friends that Biden's victory is assured.
23   rdm   2020 Jun 22, 5:17pm  

mell says
You think if they come to cancel you you show them that you didn't vote for Trump and they leave you alone


I must admit I didn't know what "cancel culture" is. I could care less, from a personal standpoint it is meaningless.
24   rdm   2020 Jun 22, 5:25pm  

NoCoupForYou says
Trump's approval never goes below the low 40s,


How do you win with 42%? In fair election it would take a decent 3rd party that drew mainly from the Dems. That doesn't seem at all likely. Bernie personally likes Biden. Trump has never expanded his support only maintained it. Of course, he could draw a royal flush, and win but the odds are small.
25   WookieMan   2020 Jun 22, 5:26pm  

rdm says
I must admit I didn't know what "cancel culture" is.

You should learn about it. It's what is going to be the undoing of many things in your and our lives. If you have a wrong thought or idea you literally can and will be fired from a job. Have family disown you. It's happening.

The problem is you will no longer realize what is a "wrong" idea depending on what party is in charge. It's bad for everyone left, right or center. But it has been created by the left.
26   Rin   2020 Jun 22, 5:30pm  

The only ppl who're at all excited about voting for Biden live in Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, DC, Chicago, SoCal, and the SFBA. And that's because these areas always vote Democrat in any national election.

And if Cenk Uygur's show is any indication, even the politically moderate-to-progressive Trump haters don't believe in Biden because he can't inspire anyone, living in the swing states, esp young voters at places like Dayton, Indianapolis, etc. With that in mind, many won't show up and Trump wins the areas which he needs to win.
27   WookieMan   2020 Jun 22, 5:30pm  

rdm says
How do you win with 42%? In fair election it would take a decent 3rd party that drew mainly from the Dems. That doesn't seem at all likely. Bernie personally likes Biden. Trump has never expanded his support only maintained it. Of course, he could draw a royal flush, and win but the odds are small.

It's approval rating. It's a metric. Also, if you win the right states, 42% can win you an election with no 3rd party. Electoral college. Win the right states and you win. Pretty cool system/idea. I certainly don't want my own state's policies governing our country. A lot of people would be hurting.
28   WookieMan   2020 Jun 22, 5:54pm  

TrumpingTits says
WookieMan says
If you have a wrong thought or idea you literally can and will be fired from a job.


I already get to scratch that one off my bucket list.

You got canned from a job for something you said? I hope not. That's fucked up even though I know it's happening in a lot of places. I don't want to see people lose jobs, even ones I disagree with. Shitty it's coming to this.
29   Booger   2020 Jun 22, 5:59pm  

TrumpingTits says
WookieMan says
If you have a wrong thought or idea you literally can and will be fired from a job.


I already get to scratch that one off my bucket list.


I usually wait until my last day at work before wearing Trump gear. Sadly I didn't do this because nobody was in the office that day anyway.
30   Patrick   2020 Jun 22, 6:01pm  

I think Trump is going to win again.

But we all need to make damn sure to vote for him, to make the margin as large as possible.
31   rdm   2020 Jun 22, 6:10pm  

Rin says
And if Cenk Uygur's show is any indication, even the politically moderate-to-progressive Trump haters don't believe in Biden because he can't inspire anyone, living in the swing states, esp young voters at places like Dayton, Indianapolis, etc. With that in mind, many won't show up and Trump wins the areas which he needs to win.


I don't think he is any indication, he is a sour grapes leftist. Biden doesn't inspire much. But Trump does; both love and hate there is no middle ground or very little. Trump won because people hated Hillary more than they feared Trump. The tables are now turned. Trump has proved for many people to be an incompetent, corrupt liar and a wannabe autocrat. He is now known Biden is known. Biden is not feared, Trump is. Fear is the great motivator. The cake is baked. I think the polls will probably tighten, but Biden wins.
32   Rin   2020 Jun 22, 6:13pm  

Patrick says
But we all need to make damn sure to vote for him, to make the margin as large as possible.


If you don't have a 2nd address in a swing state, your vote is useless. I have one in a midwest state, away from Massachusetts, and that's where I'll cast my ballot.

So no, it's not 'we all', it's the we of Iowa, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Minnesota, Georgia, etc.

If you only live in the greater Boston, NYC, DC, Chicago, LA, & SFBA areas, your vote doesn't count,
33   RC2006   2020 Jun 22, 6:17pm  

Rin says
Trump haters don't believe in Biden because he can't inspire anyone, living


You forgot about the dead.
34   Rin   2020 Jun 22, 6:17pm  

rdm says
Trump won because people hated Hillary more than they feared Trump.


Not true, the party of Bill and now, Hillary Clinton, have turned corporatist and in effect, have told the midwest to take programming classes or attend Yale Law to get a job.

Even Biden told coal miners to taking coding classes to make a living. Sorry, but that trick ain't going to fly anymore.

And as for Trump, since 1985, he's been known to be a complete sleazebag. Little has changed since then, but ppl still voted for him. Watch this whole thing repeat itself come November.
35   Rin   2020 Jun 22, 6:27pm  

rdm says
The cake is baked.


Nope, just like the botched Hydroxycloroquinone study which used an antibiotic (useless against any virus) vs Zinc (a viral replication inhibitor) and included end-of-life patients unlike the South Korean study. Remember, I used 'real science' and have an applied chemistry background when you had nothing to say about it. And later, that study was retracted.

These polls are no different than the above.
36   komputodo   2020 Jun 22, 10:06pm  

rdm says
I could care less, from a personal standpoint it is meaningless.

So you do care a lot...Now if you couldn't care less, that would make more sense.
37   komputodo   2020 Jun 22, 10:08pm  

FuckCCP89 says
Sorry boys, the cake is baked.

yes it is and has been for the last 2 years..Trump rolls to victory in 2020 and libs go bezerk and start burning shit...winning is hard...lol....especially with a candidate with alzheimers.
38   komputodo   2020 Jun 22, 10:13pm  

Rin says
And as for Trump, since 1985, he's been known to be a complete sleazebag
|
Isn't that an impeachable offense?
39   komputodo   2020 Jun 22, 10:20pm  

rdm says
Trump won because people hated Hillary more than they feared Trump.

Do you fear Trump? lol..And the corona virus, climate change, North korea, Russia, China, etc? That's a lot of fear for one person.
40   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Jun 22, 10:22pm  

Rin says
So no, it's not 'we all', it's the we of Iowa, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Minnesota, Georgia, etc.


I re-registered in Brevard, where I own a home, from Broward, where I was getting mail.

I'm 99% sure my vote wasn't counted by Snipes in 2016.

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