patrick.net

I'll admit, I was truly hoping that Texas reopening early would work. And like many, I was vulnerable to the mixed unclear facts we were getting from the media.

But why does it have to be that way in 2020, that we have such extreme difficulty agreeing on reality, and everything so easily becomes political ?

I guess if it were a hoax, and that could have been shown to be true, it would have been a GREAT WIN for the red team.

Oh well (durrrr), it just sure would have been awesome.

How come many EU countries have much worse numbers of excessive deaths than US? I mean they are so smart and we are so stupid, what gives?

How come "stupid USA" is no worse than many "smart EU countries" in deaths per million and better than many? We are basically in the middle of the pack, neck-in-neck with Netherlands. Are Netherlands "anti-intellectual" too? What is Belgium then?

marcus says

What happens when you think your stupidity is more valid than facts and science ?

You believe man-made co2 is causing catastrophic global warming.

"Daily new cases" is meaningless without knowing the daily new TESTS DONE.

The more tests you do, the more cases you will find.

Just watch daily deaths because that's kinda hard to fake, even if hospitals are paid extra to count a death as from Wuhan virus.

So you think Texas and Florida moving back in the other direction now, closing bars etc, is about the amounts of testing being done ?

I don't think Arizona's concerns about current hospital capacity is about increased testing.

Eric Holder says

I mean they are so smart and we are so stupid

The comparison in the post above is about what happened since the peak, and my use of the word stupid, was in reference to those that have repeatedly called this a hoax, and those that pushed so hard for opening all the way up sooner and more quickly. And I'm not even blaming them entirely. I get it, when there is a tragic situation such as this, first and foremost our priority is how might we make this a political win, especially in an election year. Even more so (and with less sarcasm), I get the desire to get the economy up and running before this turns into a huge depression.

But what bothers me is that I believe we have the science and analytical tools to have handled this so much better. But we live in a social media saturated, politically polarized reality, where everyone's opinion is somehow supposedly equally valid.

It's not just the right, but this has been a test of Trump's "alternate facts" doctrine, and it failed.

marcus says

The comparison in the post above is about what happened since the peak

Nothing "happened" until excessive deaths numbers are available. This is the one and only unbiased number, which can't be misinterpreted no matter who spins it which direction.

Eric Holder says

Nothing "happened"

Tell that to all the hospitals at 100% ICU capacity

Tell that to people with loved ones who have severe symptoms resulting from CV, who can't breath, and are being admitted to a hospital that has a 100% full ICU.

This thing unfolds like a slow motion train wreck. The data today relative to the EU will be much different than the data a month from now. In other words it is extremely likely the death rate per million will be much higher in the US. We shall see, as there are many factors in play. Right now we see hospitalizations in several states rising rapidly and pushing up against local capacity for ICU beds, that will likely and unfortunately translate into many more deaths. That isnt happening in the EU. I was hoping this thing would drop to a simmer over the summer, seems like that isn't happening.

The politicalization of this, evident for all to see on Patrick.net and elsewhere is insane. But we have a President who wants above all else to look good, so we get partial truths and outright and quite stupid lies, unfortunately for him he looks like his baby Trump blimp only deflated. Kung flu has been very hard on Donnie. Even the old white people don't want to die in service to a grifter's and his Republican lap dog dreams of a two term presidency.

marcus says

Tell that to all the hospitals at 100% ICU capacity

How many of these hospitals are out there? Gimme the list, I'll go and tell them.

marcus says

Tell that to people with loved ones who have severe symptoms resulting from CV, who can't breath, and are being admitted to a hospital that has a 100% full ICU.

They die. What's your point? No country on the planet can stay shut down forever. No country has the ICU beds to handle a pandemic. You understand this, right? More people will die of other things if we keep going down this shut down path. People would start killing each other for food. Big problems require big decisions. Yours seems to be to kill everyone through starvation and violence. I'll pass and take my chances.

Eric Holder says

How many of these hospitals are out there?

There shouldn't be any at this point, that is if you were actually correct.

Eric Holder says

Nothing "happened" until excessive deaths numbers are available.

https://www.newsweek.com/texass-largest-hospital-reaches-100-percent-icu-capacity-1513481

marcus says

There shouldn't be any at this point

This is a stretch. Some hospitals can be overewhelmed due to poor local planning. So this is a matter of quantity, not simply of existence.

I know, its very tempting to declare a 300M country "stupid" and "failure" because some 4-bed ICU in Boomfuck, AZ has been "overwhelmed", but you should know better then that.

marcus says

https://www.newsweek.com/texass-largest-hospital-reaches-100-percent-icu-capacity-1513481

So, one.

And "according to a document obtained by The Houston Chronicle, about 28 percent of ICU beds are being used by COVID-19 patients".

Texas' largest hospital. I'd respect you more if you could be wrong with a little more dignity.

Eric Holder says

I know, its very tempting to declare a 300M country "stupid" and "failure"

I'm guessing you don't get called a great listener very often.

marcus says

But what bothers me is that I believe we have the science and analytical tools to have handled this so much better. But we live in a social media saturated, politically polarized reality, where everyone's opinion is somehow supposedly equally valid.

marcus says

Tell that to all the hospitals at 100% ICU capacity

Are there any in the US right now?

What we need to see is death rising before we get excited.

In my county there are 3 deaths in about 4 months.

John Astruc, physician to Louis 14th, set out to jam down on Germ Theory once and for all."There are some, however, whom I forebear now to spend time in imputing, such as AugustusHauptman and Christian Langius, who think that the venereal disease is nothing else but a numerous school of nimble, brisk, invisible living tihngs, of a very proflific nature, which when once admitted, increase and multiple in abundance, which lead frequent colonies to different parts of the body and inflame, erode and exulcerate the parts the fix on...""In short, which without regard to the particular quality of any humor occasion all the symptoms that occur in venereal disease. But as these are mere visionary imaginations, UNSUPPORTED BY ANY AUTHORITY, they do not require any argument to refute them..."

"If it were once admitted that the venereal disease could be produced by invisible living things swimming in the blood, one might with equal reason allege the same thing, not only of plague, as Athanasius Kircher, the Jesuit, and John Saguens, a Minim, lately have done. Germs could also be said to cause hydrophobia, itch, tetters and other contagious diseases, and indeed all the distempers whatsoever; and thus the whole Theory of Medicine would fall to the ground, as nothing could be said to prove the venereal disease depending upon little living things which might not the urged to prove that all other diseases were derived from the like little living things though of a different species - THAN WHICH NOTHING COULD BE MORE RIDICULOUS."

Just make sure your Phlegm is equal to your Sanguine balance and everything will be fine! Let me let you some blood.

Also a reminder that Plate Tectonics was laughed out of Academia as late as the 1940s. it took 50+ years to become the paradigm.

(This is an argument against "Scientific Consensus" rather than "Repeatability" and "Economy of Explanation" as the primary drivers of Scientific Truth)

What could POSSIBLY have caused this.

Damn Beachgoers!

marcus says

I'll admit, I was truly hoping that Texas reopening early would work.

How did it not work?

marcus says

So you think Texas and Florida moving back in the other direction now, closing bars etc, is about the amounts of testing being done ?

Testing has been flat in texas for a few weeks. Positive test results doubled recently. Why? Idk.

As of yet, fact is the case explosion hasn't resulted in comparable uptick in deaths. I read texas average CV case age is 30 now.

Allowing 30 year olds to widely spread the virus, thus pushing towards herd immunity, high case total and low deaths. Sounds as positive as we can expect.

CBOEtrader says

Allowing 30 year olds to widely spread the virus, thus pushing towards herd immunity, high case total and low deaths. Sounds as positive as we can expect.

Bingo. And put the PPE where it's needed, nursing homes, hospitals and retirement communities that are apartment/condo style. Not on Susan's face while she's driving a fucking car with zero risk of obtaining the virus. Or little Johnny at the playground.

What happens when you think your stupidity is more valid than facts and science ?
You allow mass protests because they fit your political outlook and are thus more important?

georgeliberte says

What happens when you think your stupidity is more valid than facts and science ?

Trump's indoor rallies and the Republican convention

https://www.stgeorgeutah.com/news/archive/2020/06/26/cdr-we-need-your-help-with-dixie-regional-medical-centers-icu-nearly-full-chief-doctor-asks-people-to-wear-masks/#.Xvd44y2z2Rs

I guess the Mormon Garments (religious underclothing) can't stop the coronavirus.

Actually, I shouldn't be flippant about the fact that my community, which relies heavily on tourism, has experienced an increasing number of COVID-19 cases. I was driving home from work on Memorial Weekend and passed a State Park. The place was packed (shoulder to shoulder), no masks in sight. I'm surprised our numbers are as low as they are.