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Share with friends: the virus panic was badly misguided, and the press is guilty of FEAR MONGERING

By Patrick follow Patrick   2020 Jun 26, 5:57pm 229 views   13 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


https://medium.com/analyticaper/covid-19-what-the-data-tells-us-3a08e42ee36f

Think of it this way, the CDC now believes (as do I) that ~10% of the U.S. has already been infected (i.e. 32M). So if we tested everyone with antibody tests, we’d have ~30 million new cases added to the report. Clearly we wouldn’t have truly had 30,000,000 new infections in 1 day… but our main sources of news are reporting it that way. ...

Covid19 is serious, but it’s significantly less than we thought

Fatality: According to data from the best-studied countries and regions, the lethality of Covid19 is on average about 0.3%, which is about ten times lower than originally assumed by the WHO. As of 5/20/2020 the CDC is now estimating ~0.26% in the U.S. ...

The risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account. i.e. we’re capturing most of the deaths but only 5–10% of the infections. ...

For every 100 people infected ~20-50 of them will show no symptoms (i.e. asymptomatic). Of the symptomatic, ~80% have mild symptoms. Even among 70–79 year olds, about 60% remain symptom-free. So when accounting for symptomatic + asymptomatic, ~90% have mild or no symptoms. While most won’t know it, for a few, it’s vicious and deadly. ...

The median or average age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years and only about 1% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. In NYC almost everyone had underlying conditions. ...

We may never know this fully, but up to 50% of all additional deaths may have been caused not by Covid19, but by the effects of the response, i.e. policies & panic. For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 60% because many patients stopped visiting hospitals. ...

We have gaps everywhere, but “hospitalizations” are probably the cleanest and earliest indicator we have. Everyone wants to talk about Fatalities, and we have work to do there. We’re missing some, but we also have clear instances of over-counting, i.e. gunshot victims counted because they had tested positive. ...

The normal overall mortality per day is about 8,000 people in the US. Influenza mortality per season is up to 80,000. Most of our leading forecasts suggest Covid19 will account for ~5% (150,000) of our typical annual deaths (~3,000,000). ...

Many clinics in Europe and the US remained strongly underutilized or almost empty during the Covid19 peak and in some cases had to send staff home. In the U.S. we lost 1.4M healthcare jobs so far and numerous operations / therapies were cancelled, including some organ transplants and cancer screenings.
Capacity: At peak, New York City had around 1 in 6 hospital beds open and around 1 in 10 ICU beds open. Hospitals had capacity. Nationally, the CDC reports that “Covid Like Illness” at most represented ~7% of hospitalizations … it’s currently under 2%. ...

Most of the predictions have been grossly wrong. For example, many models assumed a 20% hospitalization rate, whereas we’re seeing ~1%. The models that influenced UK & US policy predicted 90K deaths by now in Sweden for not locking down, they are closer to 5K. At the center of many of our policies / strategies was Imperial College & Neil Ferguson. He is the same modeler who said 200M people could die from the bird flu (vs. 282 actual) ... We need to start listening to those who are right and stop listening to those who are wrong.

Media Accuracy— unfortunately many media outlets have failed to report accurately and with context, and yes, in some cases have totally misrepresented the data and/or used images incorrectly. Some used emotional headlines like “cases surging” while cases were actually decelerating from 30% daily growth rates down to 2–4% … and they would quote “more people dead than 9/11,” but don’t mention that more people die EVERY DAY from normal causes than 9/11. I make no conclusions as to whether it’s incompetence or mal-intent. But it’s definitely wrong, misleading, and fear-mongering.




What's your risk of dying from a heart attack this year? Your risk from dying of Wuhan virus is much less than that.
1   clambo   ignore (5)   2020 Jun 26, 8:52pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

This is good information but no way the media will report it.
2   rocketjoe79   ignore (1)   2020 Jun 26, 9:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Thanks for this. My family is all living in mortal fear. I'm going along for the sake of going along.
Yes, there have been deaths. But worst is the cratering of the economy. Millions of jobs lost when we could have treated this like Obama did the Swine flu.
I have my suspicions the Star Chamber/TPTB/Illuminati/whoever have made the high level decision that Trump cannot be allowed to win. Because of one thing: It's likely RBG will not make it four more years. If Trump gets to appoint 1-2 more Supreme Court Judges, the literal path of the nation will be changed for 20 more years to a more conservative course. This they cannot abide. They have told themselves the economy will recover, but the course of the nation cannot be allowed to "regress" for 20-30 more years.

So, fear-mongering will continue, polls will show Trump is "in trouble!" and the election will happen anyway. If Biden actually shows up for any of the three debates, I will be surprised. If he survives these incidents, repubs will still show up to vote. Electoral college saves the day.

Can I just go into hibernation and fast forward to election day already? I am so sick of this.
3   just_adhom_preaching   ignore (3)   2020 Jun 26, 9:33pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

rocketjoe79 says
Trump cannot be allowed to win. Because of one thing: It's likely RBG will not make it four more years.


I think that's fantastic insight and insinuates a superb prediction.

rocketjoe79 says
Can I just go into hibernation and fast forward to election day already? I am so sick of this.


Damn, I'm considering escalating my Florida boat-buying-plan.
4   BoomAndBustCycle   ignore (0)   2020 Jun 26, 9:59pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      



You should go to a local board meeting and present your case against Covid like this woman!

In all seriousness, Covid is still a scary disease mainly because it’s baffling doctors as to what it’s doing to our bodies. It’s not like the flu in how it attacks our bodies. It’s not just a respiratory disease, it gets into your blood vessel lining after your lungs are damaged and basically stresses out your immune system to a point that your own immune system kills you due to inflammation everywhere.

A lot of fringe health guru blogs are claiming this has to do more with our poor diets and underlying Undiagnosed metabolic disorders caused by our fat stores filled with toxic seed oils. Which cause rampant inflammation when the body is trying to fight this virus.

This would easily explain why kids don’t get very sick... they haven’t been consuming crappy toxic food for decades. So their immune systems can fight it off easier.
5   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   ignore (7)   2020 Jun 26, 11:35pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

BoomAndBustCycle says


You should go to a local board meeting and present your case against Covid like this woman!

In all seriousness, Covid is still a scary disease mainly because it’s baffling doctors as to what it’s doing to our bodies. It’s not like the flu in how it attacks our bodies. It’s not just a respiratory disease, it gets into your blood vessel lining after your lungs are damaged and basically stresses out your immune system to a point that your own immune system kills you due to inflammation everywhere.

A lot of fringe health guru blogs are claiming this has to do more with our poor diets and underlying Undiagnosed metabolic disorders caused by our fat stores filled with toxic seed oils. Which cause rampant inflammation when the body is trying to fight this virus.

This would easily explain why kids don’t get very sick... they haven’t been consuming crappy ...


Yeah, in what, 15% of hospitalizations....so like 1 in 1,000 cases?

I don’t understand the constant fear mongering from leftists on this.
6   marcus   ignore (11)   2020 Jun 27, 2:27am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

Jump out of a plane without a parachute. Go ahead and do it.

After all, what is the chance that you die from jumping out of a plane this year ? I'm vicariously embarrassed for you man. And it's this kind of moronic talk that is the reason we didn't beat this thing a long time ago.
7   marcus   ignore (11)   2020 Jun 27, 2:32am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Why are those fucking liberals making Florida, a conservative state, quarantine people for two weeks coming in from New York of New Jersey ?
8   Expat01   ignore (2)   2020 Jun 27, 3:53am     ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag      

Let's see. The author is a stinking genius because he knew that the infection rate was 10% without even having to test (that stat is also just an estimate...and suddenly we love the CDC???). Wow! Why bother reading the rest of the story since the genius author will obviously whip up a cure in his lab.
As for fatality rates, the logic is likely wrong. We did put strict measures in place to limit contagion which reduced flooding of healthcare resources. We know much more about treating the illness. The distancing measures probably protected vulnerable victims more than less vulnerable victims which led to a decreased mortality rate.
Of course, if you look at the stats you will notice that the Covid death rates vary incredibly depending on the political orientation of the state. Blue states have high death rates while Red states have low Covid rates but odd spikes in "other" or "Hey, it's just seasonal flu or a bad cold and certainly not Kung Flu because that is a commie myth invented by Hillary and Soros to destroy the greatest draft dodger...whoops...president in history."

My advice to all of you who think Covid is bullshit is to find someone you know is sick and lick his nostrils. Then lick your entire family or just spit into their faces for five minutes while they inhale deeply. It's all a lie so it's just good old-fashioned fun, right.

America really deserves to be Number One on the Covid hit chart. Go for it! Break all the records!
9   theoakman   ignore (0)   2020 Jun 27, 5:30am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

marcus says
Jump out of a plane without a parachute. Go ahead and do it.

After all, what is the chance that you die from jumping out of a plane this year ? I'm vicariously embarrassed for you man. And it's this kind of moronic talk that is the reason we didn't beat this thing a long time ago.


I'm pretty sure jumping out of a plane without a parachute has a 100% fatality rate. I fail to see the comparison.
10   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2020 Jun 27, 6:11am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Expat01 says
My advice to all of you who think Covid is bullshit is to find someone you know is sick and lick his nostrils. Then lick your entire family or just spit into their faces for five minutes while they inhale deeply. It's all a lie so it's just good old-fashioned fun, right.

Who said it's bull shit? I didn't see that. With more free time I've been browsing and commenting more here. Not one user that I've seen here thinks it's bull shit and would do what you suggest above. Everyone knows there's potential to get it. Just because people say they don't want to wear a mask, or just open up already, doesn't mean we don't think it's real.

We're talking about the media hype, illegal government restrictions and the crashing of the economy. I also don't know why this keeps going back to Trump. He's not a doctor. If you want advice from a doctor elect one or go to one. Otherwise I'm not sure how one individual is supposed to stop an easily transmissible virus, that was around for months, and that our top health officials didn't even raise red flag warnings about it.

marcus says
Why are those fucking liberals making Florida, a conservative state, quarantine people for two weeks coming in from New York of New Jersey ?

Serious question, is this an attempt at sarcasm? I mean you've seen the numbers out of NY and NJ, right? Given the massive amount of old/elderly in FL Desantis has protected the weak and vulnerable unlike Cuomo did. You know this to be true too, because even legacy media has reported on it. Hence the question about sarcasm.

It doesn't have anything to do with politician political affiliation. Cuomo did a bad job. And if you want the federal government, who knows substantially less about an individual state to come in and do something, then I'm not sure what to tell you... that's not how it works. And just because Desantis is slightly conservative, doesn't mean he thinks it's a fake virus.

It feels like that's the new talking point now. Cases are soaring and conservatives don't believe the virus is real. We now basically have two comments in this threat insinuating this.
11   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2020 Jun 27, 6:22am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Expat01 says
America really deserves to be Number One on the Covid hit chart. Go for it! Break all the records!

Missed this. We're not even close to #1. Gonna pull a Jazz and just tell you to go look it up. Heck, a commenter here FuckCCP has posted the best graph on the topic in other threads. If Covid is a pandemic overall deaths should be up. They of course are up.

The US is middle of the pack worst case. Much of Europe did a worse job. Those that did better don't count deaths by Covid versus some other morbidity that was likely the primary cause of death. There's no worldwide standard for this. I'd like to think the US is honest and we're trying to report honestly. Spain and Italy were honest at the expense of looking bad and probably hurting future tourism. And if anything the US is likely over reporting deaths by at least 5-10% and it could be as high as 25%. We've already seen this in Colorado. The media won't report on it or they'll bury it on their site, paper or newscast.
12   theoakman   ignore (0)   2020 Jun 27, 7:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Coronavirus is not bullshit. What's bullshit is the hype that persists around it. Up to 50% of the people experience less inconvenience than a sneeze from your allergies. Anyone under age 40 in good health has a near zero chance of dying from it. Most people under 60 in good health have a near zero chance of dying from it. We know who should be sheltering in place. Diabetes, Heart Disease, Blood Pressure, Obesity, and elderly. The idea that everyone else should as well is ludicrous.

My father in law has a compromised immune system. We've been, for the past 5 years, very careful to not visit when any of us has so much as a cough. It's not that hard.
13   Misc   ignore (0)   2020 Jun 28, 2:01am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

There were a couple of studies done testing a random sample of the population for COVID. The percentage of people who had already had the disease were substantial. There have been no follow-up studies because the results do not fit the narrative.

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