patrick.net

Yes, it's ironic.

Prices are falling fast in the SF Bay Area, but I don't want to live here anymore.

I moved to from San Jose to southern Oregon a while ago, and we're seeing alot of families like mine leaving from the bay area to here. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the worst is yet to come.

Patrick says

Yes, it's ironic.

Prices are falling fast in the SF Bay Area, but I don't want to live here anymore.

I’m seeing prices increasing in the Bay Area. I hate to say it, believe me...

The answer to almost every American ill is 1) not enough housing/prices too high and 2) too many people/immigrants.

Agree that the article is a fluff piece, but the migration is real.

https://www.mercurynews.com/coronavirus-what-pandemic-bay-area-home-prices-continue-to-rise

I'm with BayArea ^^^. Around here prices haven't dropped a single bit. I live within very easy bicycle commute (or even walking) to Infinite Loop and The Apple Spaceship.

If an engineer with a few years of experience joined Apple 5 years ago, they would have likely seen their initial $250k RSU grant (over 4 years) blossom to $1MM while simultaneously picking up $800k in salary and $200k from the ESPP (employee stock purchase plan). Even if they lost 2/3 of that to taxes, living expenses, and a new Lamborghini, you're looking at $667k sitting in the bank — that's 1/3 of a shack right there. Additional ongoing RSU grants gotten before the stock price run up should be pulling in another $200k/year for a few years even if the stock stays the same from now on, so $8k/month mortgage isn't much of a problem. The poor schlubs that didn't hit the high-tech jackpot are out of luck, but there are plenty of young, houseless people who can afford a house if they want one.

RSUs (restricted stock units) are handed out as signing bonuses and yearly bonuses; they are the replacement for stock options of yore. The company sets aside a certain amount of stock (say, $200k worth of stock for the signing bonus grant). Then you get 1/8th of those shares every 6 months for the next 4 years. So, someone got 2000 share grant (back when the stock was trading at $100). Now, since it's more than 4 years later, all those shares are his. Those shares are now worth $870k at todays closing price. Along with your yearly review and raise, you might get smaller grants each year (that run for 4 years); those grants might be $50k worth when they are granted.

Ditto - Expensive housing, Fires every year, highest taxes, no more medical freedom. I'm leaving next year.

SunnyvaleCA says

I'm with BayArea ^^^. Around here prices haven't dropped a single bit. I live within very easy bicycle commute (or even walking) to Infinite Loop and The Apple Spaceship.

If an engineer with a few years of experience joined Apple 5 years ago, they would have likely seen their initial $250k RSU grant (over 4 years) blossom to $1MM while simultaneously picking up $800k in salary and $200k from the ESPP (employee stock purchase plan). Even if they lost 2/3 of that to taxes, living expenses, and a new Lamborghini, you're looking at $667k sitting in the bank — that's 1/3 of a shack right there. Additional ongoing RSU grants gotten before the stock price run up should be pulling in another $200k/year for a few years even if the stock stays the same from now on, so $8k/month mortgage isn't much of a problem. The poor schlubs that didn't hit the high-tech jackpot are out of luck, but there are plenty of young, houseless people who can afford a house if they want one.

RSUs (r...

This perfectly describes why housing prices are what they are here...

Build Baby Build!

Prices going up in suburbs. Here's my post from the other thread:

The tech work-at-home refugees and low interest rates are creating a suburban bubble around the Bay Area for sure. House across the street from me sold within day of posting for full asking, if not more on bid.

We knew the owners for many years. They moved quite suddenly to be near children in SoCal and the place has been a rental for couple of years. I saw him and talked with him because he came up to speak with the agent and oversee the transaction. He said they wanted to sell because he thinks prices will drop in the future due to the mass bail out of well heeled upper middle class and BoomFucks from the State. Likely wealthy foreigners only in the neighborhood in future. The house next to his is a rental, and I think the occupant is Russian mafia, as was his predecessor. Not too old, with young wife and kid, and Mercedes SUVs and Land Rovers around the place.

Santa Cruz has likewise become suddenly inflated, with every rat shack going for excessive prices.

I think routine million dollar prices on nice manufactured homes in resident owned mobile home parks in Santa Cruz are just around the corner. It is a good time to cash out and leave the tender mercies of California.

Suburbs are in bidding frenzies

I told my wife we need to implement the two to three year search and move plan. The strange thing is, after years of relative poverty and struggle, we have about the cushiest situation on paper you can imagine for California next to Malibu and hot and cold running hookers and coke.

The State has gone into spooky, scary overdrive like a haunted house. Instead of the slow raising of temperature for the slowly boiling frog, the Covid tyranny turned things into a rolling boil and you can see the dread future flash. My vet friend, lifelong Californian and born and raised in Santa Cruz, has been shopping for boats because he said he has to leave for a while and all of his cruises were nostalgically politics and California Asshoe free, so he wants to get a crew and go out again for eight months before he is too old. He doesn't know if he will stay himself after that, has given thought to Austin area where he has a daughter.

SunnyvaleCA says

If an engineer with a few years of experience joined Apple 5 years ago, they would have likely seen their initial $250k RSU grant (over 4 years) blossom to $1MM while simultaneously picking up $800k in salary and $200k from the ESPP (employee stock purchase plan).

The stock thing could happen, but salaries are nowhere near $800K:



https://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/Apple-Engineer-Salaries-E1138_D_KO6,14.htm?experienceLevel=TEN_TO_FOURTEEN

I still think the techs used Covid to solve some of their employee problems i.e. the inevitable purple haired secretary glasses 'n gay mafias progressive rebellions that would always be imminent with that coddled segment of Wokes.

Instead of the tedious process of enabling human resource witch hunts and firing without cause or process on accusation alone, they can just tell anybody, including human resources, to work from home, now, and basically Zoom gulag them. It is using KommieKunt tactics against the KommieKunts by isolating them and keeping them from assembling for the purposes of grousing and rebellion. Ron H. Hubbard would be proud of them.

It gave them the means to douse the fuse before the Woke bomb exploded internally.

BayArea says

Suburbs are in bidding frenzies

Maybe you can bid on this one.


https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2020/10/13/bankruptcy-default-crime-jolt-big-fremont-real-estate-housing-retail/

B.A.C.A.H. says

BayArea says

Suburbs are in bidding frenzies

Maybe you can bid on this one.


https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2020/10/13/bankruptcy-default-crime-jolt-big-fremont-real-estate-housing-retail/

These are apartments. Nofuckingbody wants these anymore.

TrumpingTits says

https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2020/10/13/bankruptcy-default-crime-jolt-big-fremont-real-estate-housing-retail/
.

Seems like the entire thing was an visa scam

I'll have to study the article. We pass these developments every week on 680. Guess it may be another foreign 'scam and scram' fraud operation, where the principles know they won't have to negotiate the California Hazard Traps because the only purpose was to launch the fraud, then bail and take the money and run back to their countries of origin. That has been happening in California for a while.

That's a lot of lawsuits for one project. I always assumed they were just future ghetto drop tenements.

https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2018/comp24319.pdf

Ceffer says

We pass these developments every week on 680. Guess it may be another foreign 'scam and scram' fraud operation,

Yep. Passed it again last weekend.

Welcome to the Bay Area.

Patrick says

SunnyvaleCA says

If an engineer with a few years of experience joined Apple 5 years ago, they would have likely seen their initial $250k RSU grant (over 4 years) blossom to $1MM while simultaneously picking up $800k in salary and $200k from the ESPP (employee stock purchase plan).

The stock thing could happen, but salaries are nowhere near $800K

That was a summary of totals where they would be after 5 years with a conclusion that they could have accumulated in total $667k without much thought (way more than enough to think about buying a house). $800k collected in salary over 5 years is $160k/year, which is exactly what you'd be getting according to your graphic. Your graphic shows $124k stock bonus (presumably every year). The stock is up 4x from 5 years ago, so that's $500k right there ... and some more each of the next 4 years too.

B.A.C.A.H. says

BayArea says

Suburbs are in bidding frenzies

Maybe you can bid on this one.


https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2020/10/13/bankruptcy-default-crime-jolt-big-fremont-real-estate-housing-retail/

No, rentals are dropping

SFH are rising

#COVID

This is bullshit. A self-imposed crisis. If it's too expensive, move. Especially with a lot of jobs and industries moving to permanent remote. I'm guessing eventually all companies will slide the pay scale based on location, but for now, take advantage.

My current rent is less than 25% of my net income, by choice. It's not that hard...

Ceffer says

We pass these developments every week on 680

Reminds me of the I-30 condo scam in Dallas of the 1980's!

SunnyvaleCA says

$800k collected in salary over 5 years is $160k/year

Didn't know you meant that over 5 years, my fault.

NuttBoxer says

My current rent is less than 25% of my net income, by choice. It's not that hard...

I'm a unicorn at 6% net income to debt on my mortgage, but it is doable if you want to make it happen. I frankly got super fucking lucky, so that helps. Not really a risk taker, but put on offer in on my current house for cash. We didn't have it... lol. I wasn't expecting the offer to be accepted. It wasn't. 2 months later it was (HUD foreclosure home). Got my MIL to do a margin loan on her stocks and we bought the damn house 0% down, just paying the interest on the margin loan. Appealed the taxes and live without about a $1,250/mo mortgage. 1/3 of an acre, inground pool, fenced yard and full finished basement. It's sad that this happens, but people get visibly upset when I mention my taxes are $3,200/yr. All my neighbors are $6k+ and some $10k+.

It'll be tight when my boys get into their teens, but that's only 5 years or so of tight space. I can deal, especially with the yard and pool. Plus a couple of their good friends are farmers, so I'm sure they'll be out there fucking around on 4 wheelers and shit and not home.

Moral of the story, I agree with Nutt, just get the fuck out of CA. 80% of the time you're sleeping or working. Is that 20% of free time really worth it to live there? We've looked at FL, CO, AL, CA and AZ at one point or another. Can't remember if I saved the spreadsheet, but CA, assuming the same income or higher was the worst for our family by low 5 figures/yr. Basically we'd be paying 15-20k more per year for scenery and the same pay. Nah, I'd rather retire early. AL was the best for housing, but the work situation would be the hard part there and the humidity and hurricane potential. Panhandle of FL would be nice, but again hurricanes and wicked humidity. No income tax though is where massive savings come in.

If IL gets the progressive tax passed, we're fucked. So we may be looking in the near future. We'll see in November. Sad part is most people are too naive and believe the tv ads they see. If your family makes north of $120-150k in IL, you're about to get fucked if this passes. 4.95% will go to 8-10%. Democrats are awful.

WookieMan says

Moral of the story, I agree with Nutt, just get the fuck out of CA. 80% of the time you're sleeping or working. Is that 20% of free time really worth it to live there?

Wookie, until work from home for those lucky enough for that option, the 20% was spent commuting. Because of the long commute (and work) hours, less sleep.

That miserable commute is not even the worst of it for families with kids. The region is toxic for kids. Before I was in tech, I was a teaching major. Been in classrooms all over Santa Clara County student teaching, subbing, etc. For two years, I heard mentor teachers from across the county give their talks at the weekly seminars for the teaching candidates: from super-elite Palo Alto to rural places outside Gilroy, from private Bellarmine with kids of CEOs to ghetto schools plagued by gangs. From that experience I got a hypersensitivity to the K-12 milieu across the region. This is one reason I was a regular presence at my kids' schools K-12, as a volunteer. While my colleagues jet-setted "back home" to India or China, or to exotic places like Caribbean on their PTO, my partner and I burned ours one day at a time volunteering at the schools. Volunteering was a cover for being observer. From the oldest kid's kindergarten to the youngest's HS graduation. I have seen it all.

So many Smarty-Pants who moved into our region as adults have told me, lectured me, etc., that I just "don't get it". I politely listen and know that they don't know WTF they speak of. How my kids wended through intact and able to take care of themselves as young adults is a topic for a self-help book, I suppose.

There is a reason that just about every one of my homies from growing up in what became "Silicon Valley" left the region over the decades. Mostly they did not want their next generation to have its formative years in such a toxic milieu. Sensible folks on Patrick.net like joshuatrio, Goran_P and RC2006 have shared they made the move for the same sort of reason.

WookieMan says

Moral of the story, I agree with Nutt, just get the fuck out of CA.

Embarrassed to admit this, but we are back in San Diego. Feel free to pile-on for how financially stupid moving back was, you are justified.
The move just ended up being a lot harder on my daughter and wife and I anticipated. But we did not move back to the city. That choice was backed by my growing distaste for city living, the need for our daughter to attend a decent public school(not an oxymoron in the country), and insistence on not spending 30% of our income on housing.

I anticipate we will probably leave California again sometime in the future, hopefully for homesteading with family. But until then I can tell you if you are willing to leave the city, even in a high cost-of-living, lower-income region like San Diego, you can succeed.

NuttBoxer says

we are back in San Diego

Good thing you were only renting when you tried out the new region.

This is why it's so silly to buy when parachuting into a new, unfamiliar region. It's prudent to rent for a while, at least a year, to get familiar with the area, the schools, climate, etc.

NuttBoxer says

we are back in San Diego. ...The move just ended up being a lot harder on my daughter and wife and I anticipated.

Where did you move? Was it ID?

Lately, I’d like to leave California. With Covid and the extreme partisanship that’s arisen, the thrill is gone.
But our jobs... we make about $250k a year, and most of that goes to cost of living and advancement of our situation. Have the youngest in private school right now. Wife is doing her PhD in addition to working full time and that’s a major expense. And the mortgage did just get refied but still over 3k. Plus taxes out the wazoo and everything fun is still closed.
And it’s hot today. 90° in mid October, been hot all month. I crave some cool weather. Wouldn’t even mind some snow, but that’s never happened here.
I’m driving a car that’s 20 years old.

Long term plan is to GTFO when the kids go to or finish college. I got like ten more years most likely.
Oh well.

Eric Holder says

Where did you move? Was it ID?

Phoenix, Glendale if you know the area. Thought it would be easier if we were only 5 hour drive for SD, didn't make a difference. Bad timing on our part, and should have selected a location with relatives already living there. We'll see, maybe in a couple of years we'll try again.

I have lived in Phoenix - two miserable years. Been there in the summer? Unless you have the money to get a second home in prescott/flagstaff/sedona, you will fry your head.
Seattle - lived there as well. Too rainy (some years you can get lucky). Summers are AWESOME - but that is July/Aug/Sep. I was there 4 years and it rained every July 4th.
Oregon. And you think CA is left - wing? Maybe central oregon is okay... but that is changing.
Spent too much time in DC. I loved the politics/atmosphere (this was 20 yrs ago though). But humid. Very cold winters.

California - for covid, we relocated 1 week a month to tahoe. Just AWESOME. Kayaking, mountain bike riding, etc...
I also spent a lot of time in Yosemite over the years and back-packing all over the sierras. Fantastic.
Ever been to the Channel Islands? Like to fish the delta for stripers? Great as well...

I get it - if you aren't very outdoorsy then - I agree - moving somewhere else makes sense. But CA is a pretty magical place for weather and shear beauty and the opportunity to do activities year-round.

It's the weather, stupid! :)
CA is a beautiful place. Now if only Covid would kill off about 25% of us.... :)

Oh - and the wineries up and down California are wonderful as well.

Go out and enjoy this state! Sometimes we think about leaving, but then we think: why leave it for the assholes and the politically correct, guilt-ridden crazies? Do I want to be "driven" away by some smelly homeless person?
Sometimes you have to stay and fight - and you may lose. But enjoy it anyway....

Maybe get a gun though... :)

Gee, I'm so glad somebody manages to bypass all of the tyrannical shutdowns, shelter at homes, months of smoke etc. to enjoy the amenities of California in expansive, non-working, non-shutdown leisure. it's splendid that somebody isn't choking on freeway fumes hours a day in stop-go traffic just to get to work, and is bounding with energy in all of those non-competitive, non-regulated and uncrowded destinations in California, and has no worries about expense or dwelling in safe, clean neighborhoods full of friendly and helpful, kind citizens with no weirdos or whackos or homeless.

That baloney sounds like the promotional shit from the 60's, and yeah, that California is mostly dead. Even Kobe Bryant burned up in a helicopter trying to rise above the LA traffic, and yet you still hear the booster delusion that you can get up the mountains to ski, and then be at the beach the same day. Good luck with that one in reality.

Santa Cruz real estate is being boomed upward by work at home refugees from the urban areas, and 900 homes burned up (over 9000 in the state) and those people are also looking for some place to live. I bet they can hardly wait for that fishing trip to the Channel Islands or that wine country trip (oh, yeah, a good bit of that burned, too.)

Nice for once to see some counter arguments for leaving CA.

Leaving doesn’t always work out as pointed out above.

If you find a nice place to live, tell no one, especially Californians.

the life krc described is of someone who is so rich with so much f*ck you money they don't care. It's only money, plenty more where that came from. He can buy himself splendid isolation from our realities amid a life of leisure.

This is what California has become, a playground for the rich. And not the petty bourgeoisie, either: those are Tax Donkeys who are leaving the state's tax base in droves.

The rest of us below his 0.1%, live in the reality while he plays.

Ceffer says

900 homes burned up (over 9000 in the state)

Huge spike in our homeowners insurance premium the past couple of years, reflecting those losses and underwriting for future losses. Are these premiums a socializing of risk from people having homes where they shouldn't expect affordable premiums? (Like Oakland Hills, canyons near Malibu, east of San Diego; or Lord-of-the-Rings idyllic spots like Paradise, Boulder Creek). At first glance I thought so, but now I'm not so sure about that.

The Tubbs Fire in Coffey Park, Santa Rosa was a sort of a wake up call of what can happen. All it takes is fuel (plenty of that everywhere) and wind. The Tubbs Fire raced right down from the hills into the city and burned a whole neighborhood of tract homes, as completely as any WW2 incendiary bomb. Coffey Park was a large enough neighborhood to be called a town in many parts of the US, prudently built away from the hills, inside the city limits with good roads, water mains, municipal fire service, etc

If it wasn't for my wife and kids, I would never have moved back. Phoenix was sort of a compromise that didn't really please anyone, although the people were very nice, the desert was very peaceful, the hiking was great, and the heat, exaggerated. Don't believe that last, I spent the whole summer with no AC for my car, and outdoor parking with no shade. I just brought some shorts and a tanktop for after work, and I was fine.

But with my new job, I could live anywhere in the continental US timezones. Would love to go back to Michigan, pay 50% less, retire early, and visit California whenever I want, not to mention Hawaii, New Zealand, etc , etc.

If this is the only place you ever want to be, and are fine never owning a home without monstrous debt, then stay. I'll wish you luck when I'm gone after a few more years..