patrick.net

Yes, my ill gotten, white privilege rents have been impressive. However, it could all collapse anytime, too. I just leave that shit alone and it works better than any demented gambling scheme I could come up with. I have a friend who has impoverished himself with day trading. His father was a compulsive gambler and he has gone down the same sad road and will probably have to work until he crumbles.

Ceffer says

I just leave that shit alone and it works better than any demented gambling scheme I could come up with.

Ditto.

I have a small play account, but usually 95% of my money is just set and forget broad index funds that I leave alone (except for tax optimization moves), and I've done better there than my play account where I try to be smart and trade. I know some people have the skill and temperament to trade and reliably outperform, but I don't, and I really doubt many do. So many people boast about how they made 20% in only 2 months, but neglect to mention that they werent even invested for 2 yrs before that, which makes their long term CAGR actually underperform the market.

A friend of mine has been mostly on the sidelines waiting for a pullback since 2014, constantly talking about unrealistic P/E ratios and whatnot, and has missed the most incredible bull market this entire time.

Time to get gold! always does well during the worst of times. Not that paper stuff GLD. A good place to start is CEF. Thank me later!

mich says

Not that paper stuff GLD. A good place to start is CEF.

Well, CEF is still paper, just a promise of physical gold.

The thing about real in-your-hand-solid gold is that it is not anyone's promise to you.

Dow 40,000!

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Dow 40,000!

Yep, again, those calling for a crash keep getting disappointed, it's inflation baby. And it's massive

mell says

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Dow 40,000!

Yep, again, those calling for a crash keep getting disappointed, it's inflation baby. And it's massive

inflation is guaranteed to spike with our debt. everything is infinite debt

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

inflation is guaranteed to spike with our debt. everything is infinite debt

Unless innovation leads to more productivity gains so that prices only increase between 2 and 3% annually.

This includes service jobs whereas the businesses are able to satisfy slightly increased demand while maintaining a hiring freeze.

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S&P 500 was around 3400 just before the pandemic started

Its now around 5090

So it went up about 50% over the last 4 years since the pandemic started around late February 2020

Excluding the dividend yield which is about 1.5% annually, the S&P 500 has gone up about 11% a year since February 2020. This is not exceptional as I recall hearing back in the mid 2000's that historically the S&P 500 annual return is around 11.5%.

Inflation was about 20% from January 2020 to January 2024 (average of 4.5% a year). Housing prices went up about 40% during this period.

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Everything is becoming financialized, been going on for quite a while. Regarding homes, consider them to be purely assets, just like stocks. Their utility is less relevant from that perspective. See China and phanthom cities.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Everything is becoming financialized, been going on for quite a while. Regarding homes, consider them to be purely assets, just like stocks. Their utility is less relevant from that perspective. See China and phanthom cities.

I wonder how much it is cultural as well as the Chinese government's involvement as far as Chinese investors buying up condos and apartment buildings.

I read that unlike the USA, the average Chinese middle and working class rather invest in real estate than stocks.

I suspect also the Chinese government wants this as it ensures an adequate future supply of housing, hence housing (albeit its a high rise condo) will always be affordable.

I agree as far as "financialized" as real estate in the USA is treated equally as an asset to stocks and ETF's. Eman is part of the "landlord class" and I give him credit for realizing this investment opportunity many years ago.

All the stock boom since October 2022, it makes me wonder if there is a lot of stock capital gains being taken out in California to buy housing there regardless of the 30 yr mortgage rate at 23 year highs. Smart money likely is remaining on the sidelines unless a great deal is presented.

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