patrick.net

I'm self employed in a critical industry, so I never closed. My customers, and my customers' customers, got hit hard by shutdowns and retail closures. Even if Covid went away tomorrow, the economy is in "coyote time" right now. A lot of businesses have closed and will never come back. It was speculated that automation would shrink the service and manufacturing economies over the next 10-20 years, but Covid shut down huge sectors like a switch going off. A lot of people are acting like things will just snap back to normal after the election. I don't think they fundamentally understand how fucked and far from home the economy is at this point. My niche has been shrinking for years, but I pared down fixed costs and expenses and was well positioned to ride the long tail till retirement. Now revenue plunged to 25% of YOY and I don't have any savings left, and there simply isn't any fat left to trim from my expenses.

Going to be an interesting ride.

mell says

What many don't understand is that traditional 401ks are not that great since taxes are likely going to be higher when you retire given the fact most - esp. leftoid politicians are thieves and thus taxes only go up and hardly ever down during your lifetime. It's a bit of a scam.

It's why I funded mostly roth and 401K-roth. However these days it's mostly 401K. There are some tricks where you can take your minimum distributions and move them over (bit by bit at a low rate if you're careful) to a roth after you've retired.

I'm guessing the commies are going to renig on even roth accounts by the time I'm retired though.

I've heard there are ways to hold physical gold in a retirement account but I have no idea how it works. Might pair well with a getaway sailboat.

mell says

It's a bit of a scam.

Not to mention the ridiculous fees 401K admins charge even if you're just parked in a money market account. I generally switch jobs every few years and roll it over to my ameritrade brokerage. No fucking fees for my retirement accounts there.

401K admins used to have a lot of bs hidden secret fees as well but I think lately they've had to at least document them in some nebulous fashion or another.

I'd bet that the fee thing is how 401K got created to begin with.

Financial institutions probably lobbied for the plan knowing that a hundred million employees would be locked in to their high-fee plans, at least until they switch employers and move money to a 401K rollover.

Employees do get a significant benefit in deferring taxes. Yes, you could buy and hold a stock for a similar benefit, but if you want to change stocks, WHACK, you get hit with a huge tax bill on the profit. Unless it's in a 401K rollover!

Seriously, that one feature alone, the 401K rollover account with no taxes on trading, must have got me years closer to retirement than I would be otherwise.

Roth IRA is the way to go. I’m converting a few $$ each year into my Roth from my traditional IRA.
Taxes on capital gains are going up automatically in 2025.
I wish I had more money in retirement accounts, but the contribution limits were low for IRAs previously, and the place I worked for was late to offer 401K.
My Vanguard variable annuity was one thing that I could put all the dough I wanted into.
The total fees are very low, so I like it. I might get a little gig money and feed it for a little bit more.
Since California has a sneaky 2.5% “annuity premium tax” on the withdrawals on top of the income taxes, I will wait until I leave California to spend it down.
Assume you have $$ and you want to buy something in California, like a small boat.
Take out $10,000 from your account: federal +California taxes remove $2000 or $2300.
The sales tax is another 9.25% where I live. Your boat is getting expensive.
Are you kidding me?

I'm aiming to have 1 million in a retirement account before I retire. I don't think I can make that happen with a roth it'll have to be roth and regular 401k combined. So far I only have 200 in a roth and 50 in a 401k. So I'll probably only make it half way there.

I'll be a multimillionaire before any of that happens though due to other investments. The only ones I sell in CA are my regular non-retirement brokerage accounts I play with and any employer based stock options. I fully intend to wait until I move to spend any of the rest. Or buy boats, sell investment real estate (all outside CA)..

I just lost two quarters in a vending machine and am starting to panic.

1 & 3. Thinking of getting rid of the 3.

Option A: work 10 more years, sell stock during that time, and then flee California
Option B: quit immediately, flee California, and sell stock over 10 years

Turns out that option B put more money in my pocket. Paying California tax on wages and the capital gains in option A exceeds the after-tax wages. So might as well choose option B and also not pay capital gains on the stock. Plus, sell the shack while it's still "worth" $1.9MM.

Of course I could work 10 more years, not sell any stock, then flee. But, really, I'm looking for any excuse to quit my job. :-)

clambo says

I don’t know where Rin was in California; when I first saw it I was amazed.

Pretty much all over, from San Diego-to-Joshua Tree, LA-to-Inland Empire, SFBA, and northern California.

For me, there's more to life than just the views.

I've been to Australia/New Zealand and the views of mountains, valleys, beaches, shorelines, volcanic formations, etc, were awesome but then, so were the ppl ... friendly, inviting and easy to make friends with esp once you leave the city limits of Sydney (which is a bit like SF in terms of phoniness). And then of course, LEGAL BROTHELS all over the place.

This is the reason why I stick around between New England and Quebec. Sure, it's humid in the summer and cold in the winter but unlike CA, there's actually real culture here. People have been lurking in these parts for generations and we don't have Californification (fantasies of fame lala land) nor Silicone Valley-ness (phony intellectuals who think they're the next X, Y, or Z). Instead, most ppl are grounded and have a true sense of where they belong. And of course, Quebec has Quebecoise escorts, the finest in North America.

mell says

Automan Empire says

Patrick says

Part of my retirement plan is to avoid California income tax entirely by moving to a state with no income tax,

So you're moving out of state to avoid the income tax when you retire and stop generating income?

Sounds legit.

What many don't understand is that traditional 401ks are not that great since taxes are likely going to be higher when you retire given the fact most - esp. leftoid politicians are thieves and thus taxes only go up and hardly ever down during your lifetime. It's a bit of a scam.

They're too restrictive! They're only worth it if your company matches. Take the free money. Otherwise, you can just open your own IRA and pick yourself.

Now I can go walking because the air bad! Man Cali is sucking hard! But I'm the same :)

btw, whats your address?

just_adhom_preaching says

So far I only have 200 in a roth and 50 in a 401k. So I'll probably only make it half way there.

mich says

mell says

Automan Empire says

Patrick says

Part of my retirement plan is to avoid California income tax entirely by moving to a state with no income tax,

So you're moving out of state to avoid the income tax when you retire and stop generating income?

Sounds legit.

What many don't understand is that traditional 401ks are not that great since taxes are likely going to be higher when you retire given the fact most - esp. leftoid politicians are thieves and thus taxes only go up and hardly ever down during your lifetime. It's a bit of a scam.

They're too restrictive! They're only worth it if your company matches. Take the free money. Otherwise, you can just open your own IRA and pick yourself.

Now...

Yeah matching is the only incentive for a traditional 401k ira. Only contribute to the matching maximum, if they don't match or stop matching convert it to Roth or cash out of it's small enough so penalty amd taxes don't make a big dent.

Also If you want to know how over-valued the market is the best metric is the Schiller PE Ratio It uses average earnings over the last decade helps to smooth out the impact of business cycles on P/E https://multpl.com/shiller-pe

16 is normal
30 before the great depression
We’re at 32

Another is the dow/gold ratio where 15 stocks are expensive and 5 gold is expensive. I'd have some cash for upcoming opportunities ;)

mich says

Also If you want to know how over-valued the market is the best metric is the Schiller PE Ratio It uses average earnings over the last decade helps to smooth out the impact of business cycles on P/E https://multpl.com/shiller-pe

16 is normal
30 before the great depression
We’re at 32

Another is the dow/gold ratio where 15 stocks are expensive and 5 gold is expensive. I'd have some cash for upcoming opportunities ;)

The market is not going down short term because it predicts Trump winning the election.

Anybody looking at refinancing their shack? If you're in category 2 or 3, you might be able to swing a 30 year at 3 1/4 or a 15 year at 2 3/4. That could be lower than general inflation rate.

Patrick says

clambo says

I realized California is going to take a lot of my money

Part of my retirement plan is to avoid California income tax entirely by moving to a state with no income tax, like WA. They have high sales tax and property tax, but I'll still be ahead.

https://www.thebalance.com/states-without-an-income-tax-3193345

So it's like Florida, except with shitty weather and cheap insurance rates?

Both my wife and I have been falling behind for a few years now due to low raises vs. inflation. Wife is adding a career to her career (Realtor) and I am starting my own company (SAAS). I have a big belief in my start up. If all goes well, I really believe it can change my industry. We'll see. Wish us luck.

I’ve been able to climb myself up from nothingness to an extreme case of poverty : Groucho Marx

I have returned to the Gig Economy, because I don't want to deal with Commies that dominate the HR departments in South Florida. Or the know it all idiots in requirement gather meetings, injecting input that is not feasible, for software that I and I alone have to write.
I'm specializing in Electrical work in Old Florida houses, where people still have wiring from the 30's through the 70's, and have plaster walls, but don't want to have some moron come in and rip their walls out, and put up toxic Chinese drywall. I had develop my own techniques to knock holes to get at the wires, and patch the holes with a solid mortar and plaster patch. My house was the perfect lab to perfect those skills. All of the other electricians I know avoid those types of situations.

I have been living the last two years on a modest financial cushion we managed to save up. Now I'm ready to get out there and make some money doing what I enjoy.

Tenpoundbass says

I had develop my own techniques to knock holes to get at the wires

Hammer?

my income has grown 20x since the pandemic started

Onvacation says

Tenpoundbass says

I had develop my own techniques to knock holes to get at the wires

Hammer?

The size and shape of the hole and then how new wall boxes get installed, then patched over to look like it was always there.

Most people want to knock a 1 to 2 foot square hole, then screw in a bit of 2x4 and then patch it with drywall. Drywall to Plaster transitions look like crap, no matter how skilled you are, it creates a reveal after you paint over it. The ones that realize this sells the idea of ripping out all of the plaster walls(they call it updating) and replacing it all with drywall.

Lots of people don't get their wires changed because they believe it will be too intrusive.

We ended up taking on a bit of debt to to remodel house, hopefully pay it off by the end of year. We have gone from needing to have two incomes to only needing one. It has made it a lot easier to be more selective with our careers. Wife and I were both able to take large amounts of time off between jobs without stress and take the time to find higher paying jobs we like.

If we were in CA still the inflation and gas would have been rough.

To rap up, making more than in CA, added a golden retriever to household, kids happier, made a bunch of new friends, almost half of income disposable. Doing much better than pre covid. Covid might have been a blessing in disguise, not sure if we would have moved without the extra push it gave us.

Tenpoundbass says

Lots of people don't get their wires changed because they believe it will be too intrusive.

So you do "arthroscopic wiring". I like it. You should market it as such.

11

We're doing something like the permanent portfolio, which is evenly divided between Treasuries, cash, stocks (index funds) and PM/commodities (mostly gold, silver, CanRoys). Up through the end of '21, we were probably up nearly 50% across the entire portfolio (stocks and PMs provided most of the kick). We're down about 20% from the peak investment-wise.

I'm still employed, but raises are meager, and inflation is costing us more - since we do grass-fed and other real foods, which have always been 2X the cost of garbage food, the food increases haven't been as shocking. Like TBP, we're learning practical skills - mostly maintenance and DIY stuff. This covers everything from auto repair through carpentry, furniture and upholstery restoration, gardening, shot shell reloading, and expanding our cooking repertoire

If I had more cash on hand, I would load up on what I think I'll need over the next 10 years wrt appliances, vehicles, tools, etc. Shit is going to get incredibly more expensive once the supply chain disruptions settle into a new equilibrium.

Blew nearly 20K moving from CA to TX this year. Will break even in one year from the tax savings alone.

stereotomy says

If I had more cash on hand, I would load up on what I think I'll need over the next 10 years wrt appliances, vehicles, tools, etc. Shit is going to get incredibly more expensive once the supply chain disruptions settle into a new equilibrium.

Pretty much what I've been trying to do. I repair 90% of my own stuff and have friends for the other 10%. Pretty much have a electronics repair setup on one of my garage work benches for my hobbies.

Plenty of biotech stocks on discount, the sector will do better than the rest 2023.

mell says

Plenty of biotech stocks on discount, the sector will do better than the rest 2023.

whats worth buying and holding?

The pile still has quite a safety margin, but just hoping that inflation doesn't wreck it entirely. I suppose we'll just have to tuck in and adapt if it does. I doubt anybody will starve in USA. This is an instance in which owning at least one house outright can be viewed as a good thing, as long as one can pay the taxes and maintenance.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

mell says

Plenty of biotech stocks on discount, the sector will do better than the rest 2023.

whats worth buying and holding?

I posted one stock in the paid thread (10 cents). So far only Patrick has paid and viewed it. It's a short write up for a stock I havbe been holding at least 50k shared at all times, anywhere between 50-125k shares: https://patrick.net/post/1378136/2022-12-29-small-cap-biotech-stock-idea-1. I swing trade the rest. I have more recommendations. ADMA is one worth buying and holding for example imo, though it traded for.a 1/3rd if its current price not long ago. Regardless I keep holding. there are so many small cap.biotechs that are just about to.turn profitable (6-18 months), you just have to read their Financials and earnings trajectory. Many trade for less than their 1 year forward revenues. Reading the.idea and doing your follow up due diligence takes less than 45 minutes. I would appreciate if others would post their ideas as well (paid or unpaid). The economy may be shitty in 2023,.but many stocks have sold.off 50% if not more easily, and many of those will recover, even in a sideways or bear market.

I spend at least 4 hours per week on researching biotech stocks. May expand that work for a fund.

We recently paid off our debt with the stock sale from my yearly vesting. Didn't have much, but it's gone now. Added to my long term investment, put something into the emergency fund, and added another gun. The rest has gone to enjoying many things in the Southwest we still hadn't done, despite having lived here for so long. Never get so caught up in the future you don't enjoy the present.

We have more financial freedom than we've ever had, and that's mostly due to raises that keep up with inflation, or just ahead, and living within our means, and I mean housing. Refusing to spend more than 25% of my net income on housing is the best decision we've ever made, and the only reason California hasn't whipped us for coming back. And if things ever changed, we'd just move to a cheaper locale.

CBOEtrader says

my income has grown 20x since the pandemic started

@CBOEtrader - How the hell did you do that?

GNL says

CBOEtrader - How the hell did you do that?

Its called crony capitalism.

I sell health insurance. The ACA expanded subsidies across the board, and added a yearround SEP for under 150% earners... meaning i pile on thousands and thousands of clients who pay nothing for their policy, while i am paid for administering their application process.

im hunting for food.

Dear diary... it is day 56 of my hermit existence in the mountains. Disappointed but eager I've been unable to hunt down elk or deer, only water fowl. But luck finally shined upon my misfortune as I came upon 3 realtors... so killed them and ate their livers.

FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut says

Dear diary... it is day 56 of my hermit existence in the mountains. Disappointed but eager I've been unable to hunt down elk or deer, only water fowl. But luck finally shined upon my misfortune as I came upon 3 realtors... so killed them and ate their livers.

Eww, I understand killing them, but eating them is just asking for a nasty venereal disease!