patrick.net

This difference is that this time around, we all know for a fact that the polls are corrupt.

No way is Biden ahead at all.

The polls are just credence to mail in vote fraud later. "No wonder Biden won after 20 days of post election vote harvesting, after all, he was so ahead in the polls."

I don't know. I tend to trust betting websites a little more, because people say one thing, but do another with their money. But Trump is behind there too, although he's improving lately.

But I wonder if established indicators like polls, even if genuine, are accurate this year. It's an odd year, and even if there was 0 vote fraud, mail in voting will change things in ways that's hard to predict.

But I think fraud will play a role. Dems have shown they're willing to cross those kinda lines, and I think there's plenty of sacrificial martyr NPCs who will risk prison to help fight the good fight against the bad orange man. Dem leaders have set the stage for it to be possible to happen "organically" in many different regions, and then recent changes to late ballots stinks of leaving the door open a crack for the burglars to do their thing.

Polls don't lie.

People who regard them as shallow, rigged publicity stunts, designed to steer gullible conformists with a false sense of security that their guided, propagandized choices will be valid are just plain wrong..

Ceffer says

People who regard them as shallow, rigged publicity stunts, designed to steer gullible conformists with a false sense of security that their guided, propagandized choices will be valid are just plain wrong

Well Rasmussen has Trump up. Most others have him down. Pick which one suits you I guess.

Hircus says

Dem leaders have set the stage for it to be possible to happen "organically" in many different regions, and then recent changes to late ballots stinks of leaving the door open a crack for the burglars to do their thing.

Not to mention Bloomberg bailing out black criminals in Florida specifically for them to be able to vote.

I also think that if polls were to show biden too far behind, donations to his campaign would fall off a cliff.

Now what is it? Is Trump up 4 in Florida or Biden up 3? How about Arizona?

IIRC ABC had a few moments of clarity in the 2016 election, that flew in the face of Nate Silvers as well.
Not every poll, but sometimes they had Trump up over Hillary.

Another one: 6 or 7 point spread between polls in Michigan and Iowa

Throw them out. Best case meet in the middle. The sample has to be taken into account. People have said it here they were going to register Democrat to vote in the Primary to fuck with it. The internet has created some of the best trolls. If you don't think there are trolls being polled to fuck with the data, above and beyond the +/- 3 point BS, you'd be crazy. Also oversampling of one party and you then throw in the trolls. The data is crap at this point. It's not 1995 anymore where people would only have access to info if they got a newspaper delivered.

Does anybody think Biden is ahead 6-10 pts?

Maybe only in DC, CA, and HI.

Biden used to be good for fifty lies per teleprompter session before he got tired.

Even juiced with injectible speed and vitamin cocktails now, he is down to ten lies per teleprompter session before he gets tired. This has to mean his poll results will suffer.

I think if I were running the Biden polling show -

In the year leading up to the election, I would have Biden at a comfortable but not massive lead, to ensure people continue to donate to the campaign. If he leads too much, donations would fall because people wont feel their donations are really necessary. Also, if he trails too much, donations would fall out of fear of wasting their money.

As election day approaches, I would let the poll margins tighten so as to scare people a bit, and hopefully squeeze a second round of donations out of them.

Not-so-sleepy Joe:

www.youtube.com/embed/nneTP_gM4PU

Not to mention Bloomberg bailing out black criminals in Florida specifically for them to be able to vote.
What kind of 'quality control' is there to ensure they show up and vote, or don't violate parole and end up locked up again. Not the most reliable group o pin you hopes (or money) on.

Sleepy Joe refuses to respond because he has no response or platform beyond vague accusations 'focus on this man, what he is doing that no president has ever done.'
Ever heard of Andrew Johnson, Democrat, 1865 to 1869 Joe?

Kenji says

I think that wagers being placed with offshore bookies are indeed meaningful. Check out the odds for Biden vs Trump.

The question is: how do they know?

Eric Holder says

Kenji says

I think that wagers being placed with offshore bookies are indeed meaningful. Check out the odds for Biden vs Trump.

The question is: how do they know?

They don't but people making bet with money tend to vote more rationally.

20 years ago, I did a side project with a bunch of pHDs that were doing horse race betting. They had found a formula using the betting odds matrix to determine which horse was the best one to bet on, based on statistics only. I don't know if they made any money on it but it was interesting. It's basically an aggregate group of knowledge. Many times, the formula would come up with basically "bet on no horses, there's no advantage".

The agency taking the bets always makes a small percentage on just handling the numbers. This means, overall, the average better will lose overall.

richwicks says

The question is: how do they know?

They don't but people making bet with money tend to vote more rationally.

They definitely don't. The vast majority of gamblers are idiots. Hence the reason they gamble. So the idea of rationality goes out the window when they put money on Biden or Trump. That's why the line moves. It's supposed to put you in a losing proposition. If it's a straight win or lose bet, that is pure emotion and has no bearing on reality. That's likely showing either left leaning or right leaning people have a higher population of gamblers.

And yes, there are smart gamblers that literally make a living doing it. They generally had large sums of money from the get go and it's easier to leverage big wins with big money. But your typical gambler is generally a moron that thinks they're smart. I wouldn't base much on gambling trends, especially on an election.

richwicks says

Eric Holder says

Kenji says

I think that wagers being placed with offshore bookies are indeed meaningful. Check out the odds for Biden vs Trump.

The question is: how do they know?

They don't but people making bet with money tend to vote more rationally.

Did they do better than polls in 2016?