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Clever polling group asks people how they think their neighbors will vote

By Patrick follow Patrick   2020 Sep 24, 8:20am 270 views   8 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/trafalgar-group-pollsters-find-hard-reach-trump-voters-shows-potus-ahead

"The Trafalgar Group, a Georgia-based polling firm known for its ability to correctly sample hard-to-reach, conservative Trump voters, shows President Trump with leads in the key battleground states of North Carolina, Florida and Michigan.

During the 2016 presidential race — widely predicted wrong by the mainstream polling establishment —the Trafalgar Group was the only pollster within the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator to show candidate Donald Trump defeating rival Hillary Clinton in Michigan. Their polls in 2016 also showed Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania — again, they were nearly alone in projecting Trump's narrow victory there — and thus taking the White House. ...

What is driving Trafalgar's sixth sense? Cahaly has spoken publicly about what he calls "hidden" Trump voters, who face what he calls a "social-desirability bias," where conservative and independent Trump voters feel marginalized and fearful about expressing their support for the president due to social stigma in media and social media. Cahaly told RealClearPolitics this bias in 2020 is "worse than it was four years ago."

Even Trump's harshest opponents say there's likely truth to this supposition about "shy" Trump voters.

"It is historically difficult to defeat an incumbent president, No. 1," Steve Schmidt, a vocal Trump critic from the Lincoln Project and former campaign adviser to the late John McCain, told MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell. "I suspect that there is at least a point or two of undercount for Trump voters."

Cahaly has honed several techniques for capturing this "shy" Trump vote, including asking respondents not only how they themselves will vote, but also how they think their neighbors plan to vote. Cahaly's rationale is this gives these more guarded voters a more socially acceptable method for expressing their own feelings, by projecting them onto others.""
1   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2020 Sep 24, 8:38am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Cahaly has honed several techniques for capturing this "shy" Trump vote, including asking respondents not only how they themselves will vote, but also how they think their neighbors plan to vote. Cahaly's rationale is this gives these more guarded voters a more socially acceptable method for expressing their own feelings, by projecting them onto others.""


My neighbors are mostly leftist Trump haters who want to fundamentally change America.

I wonder what they think my views are?
2   Dbr6   ignore (0)   2020 Sep 24, 1:36pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Clever polling group asks people how they think their neighbors will vote

I'd tell them to take a hike
3   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Sep 24, 7:34pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Given that a certain number of people will tell the pollsters to take a hike, the real number of Trump voters is probably even higher than measured by Trafalgar Group.
4   Shaman   ignore (2)   2020 Sep 24, 8:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Brd6 says
Patrick says
Clever polling group asks people how they think their neighbors will vote

I'd tell them to take a hike


That’s a very Russian (Ex-pat) thing to think about being asked to report on your neighbors!
5   Dbr6   ignore (0)   2020 Sep 24, 8:48pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shaman says
That’s a very Russian (Ex-pat) thing to think about being asked to report on your neighbors!

you're not wrong about this - and given the antifa/cancel culture/BLM crap it is coming to neighborhood near all of us as well
6   TrumpingTits   ignore (4)   2020 Sep 24, 9:38pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
who face what he calls a "social-desirability bias," where conservative and independent Trump voters feel marginalized and fearful about expressing their support for the president due to social stigma in media and social media. Cahaly told RealClearPolitics this bias in 2020 is "worse than it was four years ago."


NOOOOO SHIIITTT! I vote that to be the most understated understatement that has appeared on PatrickNet for 2020!
7   rocketjoe79   ignore (1)   2020 Sep 24, 11:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I have a good friend who considers himself a left centrist? Conservative leftist? The last two times we have met socially, he seemed determined to control the conversation rather than engage in a dialog. My friend is a very, very smart and savvy person. I think as the election looms, his rational brain is fighting dearly with the narrative he has been fed and wants to believe. I sense an essential conflict that hopefully will be resolved without some sort of breakdown. But, perhaps this is a necessary step to recovery from TDS.

As the saying goes, breakdowns can lead to breakthroughs.

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