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Election predictions...

By Dbr6 follow Dbr6   2020 Oct 22, 7:17pm 1,327 views   83 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Please go at it below.
I am not sure how it will go. I give it about 50/50...and what we should do is dependent on outcome. Biden win is good for gold immediately, and I have not made a mistake in stocking up on firearms/ammunition. If Trump wins, we will have status quo for a few more years and I overpaid for firearms.

BTW an interesting observation which may go against hardcore beliefs of patnetters of both left and right persuasions. I have 5 domestic minority students, one black, three Hispanic and one Asian. Black and 2 Hispanic already voted for Trump...I don't know whom Asian and third Hispanic voted for. In contrast, my FUCKING WHITE COLLEAGUES vote for Biden about 70/30 at least, if not more.
Edit: this is TX so it may be different elsewhere.

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44   Booger   ignore (7)   2020 Oct 25, 6:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

GreaterNYCDude says
With less people commuting and more early voting, will the Republicans be able to get their base out in equal or better numbers relative to four years ago?


Trump's popularity among Republicans is much higher this time. It won't be an issue.
45   Dbr6   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 25, 6:52pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Blue says
many 'smart' and including U.S.-born went to top schools still commies!! with no tolerance (scary!) that is really puzzling. People who took citizenship tend to be less commie

I see the same in E. European contingent. Parents/grandparents ran away from commies and are reliably (80+%) quite right wing. They worked hard, started as janitors etc in 1950's/60's, became affluent after many yrs of hard work, now kids/grandkids went to Yale and are full blown fucking commies, ignoring fact that than granddads brother was killed by ideological twins of antifa.
46   HeadSet   ignore (2)   2020 Oct 25, 7:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

became affluent after many yrs of hard work, now kids/grandkids went to Yale and are full blown fucking commies

Looks like they became just like the rest of the Americans. If you look you will find most Socialist types are the spoiled offspring living off the productivity of their parents/grandparents.
47   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Oct 25, 7:29pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Dbr6 says
People who took citizenship tend to be less commie

I see the same in E. European contingent. Parents/grandparents ran away from commies and are reliably (80+%) quite right wing.


In a previous job, I noticed some suspicious web traffic coming from Russia and said out loud "Nothing good comes out of Russia." But then I realized that one of the guys was a Russian immigrant. I apologized, but he said no need at all, he agreed completely. He loves America and calls himself "Americanski" if anyone asks about his accent.

I actually think Russia has given the world a lot, but the country itself has been very corrupt ever since the Communists took control. The Tsarists at least seemed to have a strong sense of honor and morals.
48   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Oct 25, 7:36pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Human nature is full of riddles and contradictions; its very complexity engenders art—and by art I mean the search for something more than simple linear formulations, flat solutions, oversimplified explanations. One of these riddles is: how is it that people who have been crushed by the sheer weight of slavery and cast to the bottom of the pit can nevertheless find strength to rise up and free themselves, first in spirit and then in body; while those who soar unhampered over the peaks of freedom suddenly appear to lose the taste for freedom, lose the will to defend it, and, hopelessly confused and lost, almost begin to crave slavery. Or again: why is it that societies which have been benumbed for half a century by lies they have been forced to swallow find within themselves a certain lucidity of heart and soul which enables them to see things in their true perspective and to perceive the real meaning of events; whereas societies with access to every kind of information suddenly plunge into lethargy, into a kind of mass blindness, a kind of voluntary self deception.


― Alexander Solzhenitsyn, Warning to the West


It is astonishing that Communism has been writing about itself in the most open way, in black and white, for 125 years, and even more openly, more candidly in the beginning. The Communist Manifesto, for instance, which everyone knows by name and which almost no one takes the trouble to read, contains even more terrible things than what has actually been done. It is perfectly amazing. The whole world can read, everyone is literate, yet somehow no one wants to understand. Humanity acts as if it does not understand what Communism is, as if it does not want to understand, is not capable of understanding.


― Alexander Solzhenitsyn, Warning to the West

https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/3077236-warning-to-the-west
49   BoomAndBustCycle   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 25, 11:28pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

BayArea says
In 2016, Vegas betting odds were as high as -900 for Hillary Clinton on Election Day. Today they are -180 for Biden.

What that means is that Hillary was 4x more likely to win the election against trump than Biden to win the election against trump.


And every week vegas betting odds gets it very wrong on a lot of football games too. Raiders were suppose to get demolished by the chiefs last week. Vegas gets it wrong.
50   NoCoupForYou   ignore (3)   2020 Oct 26, 12:01am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
I actually think Russia has given the world a lot, but the country itself has been very corrupt ever since the Communists took control. The Tsarists at least seemed to have a strong sense of honor and morals.



The Tsarists always struggled with the nobility and bureaucracy, who creatively interpreted their instructions and squeezed the peasants like mad.

Ivan was "The Terrible" for executing those who disregarded his instructions or were venial; but to Everyday Russians he was Ivan the Great.
52   BayArea   ignore (1)   2020 Oct 26, 5:19am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

BoomAndBustCycle says
BayArea says
In 2016, Vegas betting odds were as high as -900 for Hillary Clinton on Election Day. Today they are -180 for Biden.

What that means is that Hillary was 4x more likely to win the election against trump than Biden to win the election against trump.


And every week vegas betting odds gets it very wrong on a lot of football games too. Raiders were suppose to get demolished by the chiefs last week. Vegas gets it wrong.


Their entire industry relies on getting it right most of the time. Otherwise they wouldn’t be in business. Do you know how sports betting works?
53   TrumpingTits   ignore (4)   2020 Oct 26, 5:33am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Dbr6 says
Then again I see more Biden signs in my neighborhood than I saw Clinton signs 4 yrs ago.


That is interesting as I have seen zilch on Biden signs & Bumperstickers.
54   theoakman   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 26, 5:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Dbr6 says
People who took citizenship tend to be less commie

I see the same in E. European contingent. Parents/grandparents ran away from commies and are reliably (80+%) quite right wing.


In a previous job, I noticed some suspicious web traffic coming from Russia and said out loud "Nothing good comes out of Russia." But then I realized that one of the guys was a Russian immigrant. I apologized, but he said no need at all, he agreed completely. He loves America and calls himself "Americanski" if anyone asks about his accent.

I actually think Russia has given the world a lot, but the country itself has been very corrupt ever since the Communists took control. The Tsarists at least seemed to have a strong sense of honor and morals.


My grandparents and father had to flee Communist China in the 50s. They confiscated both of my grandparents families wealth. My grandfather owned a fishing ferry and the soldiers boarded it, threw him off, and shot at him in the water. My guess was, it was only an amount of time that they took their homes from them as well as they were larger than the peasants in town. So they fled to Hong Kong and made there way here...as immigrants with nothing. They worked their way up to own 2 very successful restaurants in NJ. They loved this country and never looked back. My experience has been, most families that fled the CCP in those days feel that way. Of course, there weren't many that were allowed to flee after that in the 60 to the 90s.

Every Russian immigrant (6 at this point if you count one from Ukraine (then Soviet Union)) I have worked with has been awesome.
55   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 Oct 26, 7:44am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

TrumpingTits says
Dbr6 says
Then again I see more Biden signs in my neighborhood than I saw Clinton signs 4 yrs ago.


That is interesting as I have seen zilch on Biden signs & Bumperstickers.

Same boat. Only one house in my town has a Biden sign. I bike and walk (only bike now with a broken heel) for light exercise and there are only 800 homes, so yes I've been down every street in town. Some have signs for Democrats running locally for State Rep and the like. But no Biden here. My county barely went Hillary in '16 and it's 100% going to be flipped this time. No chance Biden wins my county this time around.

I'm interested big time in Cook county though. If Trump is getting more Hispanic and Black support, it's not impossible for him to flip IL. Hillary had home state and town loyalty here in IL. Biden doesn't. If he could flip 200k votes in Cook from Biden, it's a possibility. The counties outside of Chicago, Peoria and Champaign are going to be landslide Trump counties. There's no big Libertarian party candidate that I've heard much about either, which Gary Johnson got almost 4% last time. Those people will most certainly be for Trump this time around.

I don't know. I've posted this in other threads, but I think IL might be in play for real as I keep examining this. That would be the cherry on top of the bloodbath that I think this election is going to be for Biden. Our previous governor was Republican, so it's not impossible. Our current governor is highly unpopular with his Covid response. We'll see.
56   ignoreme   ignore (3)   2020 Oct 26, 8:02am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
I've posted this in other threads, but I think IL might be in play for real as I keep examining this.


I hope you are right but on the other hand my pessimism is telling me that while the anti-Trump white woman vote has hardened the pro-Trump white working class vote that got him elected has cooled since Trump seems to have abandoned his America first platform in going after the black and Hispanic vote which I think isn’t ultimately going to show up for him at the polls.

This election is too close for comfort for me.
57   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 Oct 26, 8:19am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ignoreme says
I hope you are right but on the other hand my pessimism is telling me that while the anti-Trump white woman vote has hardened the pro-Trump white working class vote that got him elected has cooled since Trump seems to have abandoned his America first platform in going after the black and Hispanic vote which I think isn’t ultimately going to show up for him at the polls.

Makes sense. I'm a very anecdotal person though admittedly. There's nothing even remotely approaching enthusiasm for Biden in a Blue state like IL. Maybe they just think they have it in the bag? People that I know are talking about voting for Trump that I never would have thought of and they were vehemently against him in '16.

The no new war (when was the last time that happened?) and signing the ME deals with a few countries was a huge deal for a lot of voters. I think both those things appeal to women and working class dads who have sons. White, black, brown or yellow. Most people got a tax break. Even with Covid, many people ended up making more than they would have working (I hate the debt, but people will attribute that to Trump).

The weak spot is healthcare which the status quo is what people have been used to since Obamacare passed. So it's not a huge negative. The Dems have colluded to smash the economy through Covid fear and I think even the morons can see through the BS they're putting out and getting pissed at Dem leaders. #2020Bloodbath
58   mell   ignore (6)   2020 Oct 26, 9:11am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ignoreme says
WookieMan says
I've posted this in other threads, but I think IL might be in play for real as I keep examining this.


I hope you are right but on the other hand my pessimism is telling me that while the anti-Trump white woman vote has hardened the pro-Trump white working class vote that got him elected has cooled since Trump seems to have abandoned his America first platform in going after the black and Hispanic vote which I think isn’t ultimately going to show up for him at the polls.

This election is too close for comfort for me.


Why do you think that? Policy-wise it's still very much America first. Blacks and hispanics are also mostly American citizens. Ultimately any president will need their vote to win and should get it to get the nation united.
59   Dbr6   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 26, 12:36pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Nothing good comes out of Russia

I kinda agree with this sentiment - this is my bias and prejudice.
60   komputodo   ignore (3)   2020 Oct 26, 12:55pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Trump will roll to an easy victory on election day but wont be declared a winner.......the dems will claim that there are many votes in the mail and then the shenanigans will begin.....there will be rioting in the streets........the courts will have to get involved.....in other words, a shitstorm... in the end Trump will be president for 4 more years
61   komputodo   ignore (3)   2020 Oct 26, 12:55pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Nothing good comes out of Russia

how about Caviar and beautiful women
62   NoCoupForYou   ignore (3)   2020 Oct 26, 12:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

And twitter, fakebook, google, NPR, WaPo, NYT will insist the Russians with Trump hid millions of mail in ballots.

Social Media will ban people for claiming victory on election night, count on it, unless it is a total blowout in terms of POPULAR vote. They'll insist the election won't be over for at least two weeks.
63   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 Oct 26, 1:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NoCoupForYou says
rms/ammunition. If Trump wins, we will have status quo for a few more years and I overpaid for firearms.

BTW an interesting observation which may go against hardcore beliefs of patnetters of both left and right persuasions. I have 5 domestic minority students, one black, three Hispanic and one Asian. Black and 2 Hispanic already voted for Trump...I don't know whom Asian and third Hispanic voted for. In contrast, my FUCKING WHITE COLLEAGUES vote for Biden about 70/30 at least, if not more.
Edit: this is TX so i

I think it's going to be an undisputed victory. I think the Dems are realizing they picked the wrong pony for this race. And that includes voters, not just the party.
64   Dholliday126   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 26, 1:06pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

komputodo says
Patrick says
Nothing good comes out of Russia

how about Caviar and beautiful women


Santa Claus, Nutcracker, Tchaikovsky, Rachmaninov.....
65   Dbr6   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 26, 1:09pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

komputodo says
how about Caviar and beautiful women

Caviar has Turkish or Persian origin I think; Russian womyn can be quite bitchy and at least in my younger days in 90's were extremely slutty.

You can't cure my prejudices!!!
66   Dbr6   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 26, 1:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Dholliday126 says
Santa Claus

A Christian substitution for Odin. In N Europe, the original winter solstice trees were fir trees with severed heads of enemies hung from them. Which is the reason why we use Christmas tree decorations, only severed heads are exchanged for Chinese-made plastic crap.
67   GreaterNYCDudeIsLookingForAJob   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 26, 1:55pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

ignoreme says

This election is too close for comfort for me.


The way this year has gone, a tie would not surprise me.

Absent that, I think several states will be close and the mail in aspect isn't helping give the situation any clarity.

Will make Bush-Gore 2020 look like a quaint walk on the park.
68   Rin   ignore (8)   2020 Oct 26, 2:22pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Dbr6 says

Caviar has Turkish or Persian origin I think


FYI, Caspian Beluga and Ossetra are the two most coveted Caviars in the world.

Interesting to note, prior to Islamic times, the Zoroastrian Persian Empire actually flanked both sides of the Caspian Sea and thus, in a way, settled the region, long before the rise of the Romanov dynasty in Russia.

The Russian province of Ossetia is actually a Christian majority Persian ethnic area, the furthest extent of the Empire started by Cyrus the Great of ancient times.
69   clambo   ignore (5)   2020 Oct 27, 1:07pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Once upon a time my friend told me to pick him up and get some beers.
His mother threw a party for the “end of summer.”
I arrived starving and scarfed down the snacks served; lobster and caviar and pieces of toast.
Later on after too much drinking I ran outside of a guy’s house and yakked it up in the hedges.
I was surprised to see it looked like good n plenty candy, pink, black and white.
I didn’t try caviar again for about 45 years.
70   komputodo   ignore (3)   2020 Oct 29, 11:19am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Dbr6 says
Caviar has Turkish or Persian origin I think; Russian womyn can be quite bitchy and at least in my younger days in 90's were extremely slutty.

I believe caviar comes from sturgeons, not turks or persians...i said beautiful which i meant as physically beautiful...good thing that american women aren't slutty.,
71   Rin   ignore (8)   2020 Oct 29, 12:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

komputodo says
I believe caviar comes from sturgeons, not turks or persians


The thing here is that before the whole sturgeon farming industry of modern times, it was the Caspian sea which was the world's richest source of Beluga and Ossetra species of sturgeon and thus, we have the olde Persian Empire as cavair's first promoter.
72   Dbr6   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 29, 1:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

komputodo says
physically beautiful


they have quite short half-life for beauty: by about 30, most of them get fat.
73   komputodo   ignore (3)   2020 Oct 29, 2:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Dbr6 says
they have quite short half-life for beauty: by about 30, most of them get fat.

Kinda like american women?
74   Dbr6   ignore (0)   2020 Oct 29, 2:15pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

komputodo says
Kinda like american women?

yep, quite similar.
75   Tenpoundbass   ignore (15)   2020 Oct 30, 8:48am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The Democrats steal the election by counting bogus padded ballots.
Trump has the foresight to bookmark the valid Votes at 8:00 pm on Tuesday.
Then proves that more ballots got submitted after the election than went through the Post Office.

Trump refuses to accept the election results, and calls for an investigation into all of the pre election fraud that has gone unchallenged thus far.
He fired Wray, and possibly Barr too if he's not on the up and up, and puts Rudy and Fitton in charge to sort it out.

There's just no way any Trump supporter can expect Trump to walk away from this.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/houston-judge-election-staff-accused-voter-fraud-retired-cop/?ff_source=Twitter&ff_medium=PostTopSharingButtons&ff_campaign=websitesharingbuttons
76   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 Oct 30, 10:15am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Tenpoundbass says
The Democrats steal the election by counting bogus padded ballots.

They're going to have to pad it a ton. At that point it will be obvious there was fraud as the numbers won't add up. And don't put it past Republicans to cheat either. I think both sides cheating negates any gain for one side or the other.

Trump is in the lead and I think by a lot. Anecdotal, but as I've said, I trust my gut. Trump has double to triple the public support from back in 2016 in my peer group. Not one person would mention his name 4 years ago except a few brave souls. It's now out there that you're an idiot if you don't vote Trump.

Also, let's just look here at Patnet. Our leftist friends could see the writing on the wall. They didn't want to be embarrassed. They made excuses that this place was an echo chamber, etc. Reality is they knew once Biden was nominated it was over. Look at the timing of guys like Tim and Marcus fleeing. I frankly don't blame them. The smart left is running from Biden and won't stand up for him in public or private. No one knows what he stands for.
77   Tenpoundbass   ignore (15)   2020 Oct 30, 10:33am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

2018 was considered to be a landslide for the Republicans just days before the election. But look what happened

Roberts and Kavanaugh just OK'd a repeat of their playbook.

If I were Trump, I would suspend in person voting until all of the early voting and mail in votes were tabulated. I push election day back to November 15th, which would give plenty of time to count the votes, and give those who's votes were lost or destroyed or flipped time to contest it. And it would make it impossible for the Democrats to predict how many bogus votes they need to manufacture.
78   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 Oct 30, 10:41am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Tenpoundbass says
2018 was considered to be a landslide for the Republicans just days before the election. But look what happened

I don't recall that. Everything I heard and read was saying the Dems would take the House in '18. It felt that way too. A natural reaction to Trump so soon after the election. Trump is a whiskey or wine that has aged at this point. Was too early to pop the cork in 2018. Who knows though, didn't think Trump would win in 2016 either. Just see more physical and vocal support for him this time around.
79   Tenpoundbass   ignore (15)   2020 Oct 30, 10:44am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
I don't recall that. Everything I heard and read was saying the Dems would take the House in '18.


The mainstream media kept saying that, the real polls were against it. It took three weeks after the election to flip 30 seats that were won on Tuesday night.
80   FuckCCP89   ignore (5)   2020 Oct 30, 10:58am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Tenpoundbass says
WookieMan says
I don't recall that. Everything I heard and read was saying the Dems would take the House in '18.


The mainstream media kept saying that, the real polls were against it. It took three weeks after the election to flip 30 seats that were won on Tuesday night.



IIRC this is exactly what happened to two reliable red seats in CA (these still existed, believe it or not): R victory on election day and then flip to blue after "additional absentee ballots" rolled in.

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