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Gundlach Predicts Second Trump Victory, Says Polls Are Probably Wrong Again.


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2020 Oct 28, 5:20am   689 views  7 comments

by Al_Sharpton_for_President   ➕follow (5)   💰tip   ignore  

A week before election day, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is predicting another victory for President Donald Trump.

Despite polls, analysis and betting odds that suggest otherwise, Trump is likely to outpace former Democratic vice president Joe Biden in the contest, said DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach in “Hey Kid – Want Some Candy?,” a Tuesday webcast as part of Schwab’s 2020 IMPACT conference.

“The polls right now say he isn’t going to win, but they said that four years ago,” said Gundlach. “Mind you, my conviction is way lower than it was four years ago. But back in [that period], when Trump was little more than an asterisk in the betting odds, I predicted he was going to win. This one is much more murky, but in my eyes, it favors a Trump win.”

Public political polls are often “designed to create impressions” rather than illustrate reality, said Gundlach, and shouldn’t be trusted. He also argued that many Trump voters are unwilling to engage with pollsters and the media because they fear retribution for their political beliefs. Biden also faces an enthusiasm problem, said Gundlach.

Gundlach also argued Republicans will likely keep the Senate regardless of who wins – mainly because of uncertainty around Biden. “Some people will hedge their bets and split their vote towards retaining the Republican Senate because they view Biden as risky,” said Gundlach, who noted that Trump is often portrayed as riskier than Biden.

However, in the four years of his presidency, there have been no international conflicts, despite some outrageous and bellicose language. “You might dislike Trump or some of his policies, but risk is not what you’re getting with him, particularly compared to turning the presidency over to another party, and particularly when that party’s candidate isn’t saying what some of his policy positions are.”

If Biden indeed wins the election and eventually rolls back or eliminates the corporate tax reduction from 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, U.S. equity valuations would increase sharply, said Gundlach. But the reduction in after-tax earnings would mean that stock prices would not appreciate. Interest rates, volatility and inflation would also rise, said Gundlach.

“Markets don’t like certainty, and with Trump, I think you have more certainty,” said Gundlach. “With Biden, you have peak uncertainty because there’s been very little information given to the public.”

Gundlach clarified that he doesn’t think Biden is a socialist, but that pressured by the Democratic Party’s base, his administration would pursue higher taxation and “socialist policies,” but it’s hard to be sure because Biden has changed many of his positions over his long political career.

The opposite is true of Biden’s running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris, who Gundlach called “one of the most left-leaning people in all of the Senate” who is not shy about sharing her opinions.

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/gundlach-says-polls-are-probably-wrong-again--predicts-trump-victory-58678.html

Comments 1 - 7 of 7        Search these comments

1   georgeliberte   2020 Oct 28, 5:48am  

Bill is probably thinking, 'Damn you can get that big mouth open wide.'
2   clambo   2020 Oct 28, 11:41am  

Gundlach evidently has noticed what we all do.
3   Onvacation   2020 Oct 28, 12:25pm  

I keep getting the urge to mark this NSW.
4   RWSGFY   2020 Oct 28, 12:28pm  

Onvacation says
I keep getting the urge to mark this NSW.


Do it!
5   WillPowers   2020 Oct 28, 8:37pm  

NYT quotes CNN poll saying Trump is losing the over 50-year-old vote. Totally laughable. Shows how desperate they are to convince people old slow Joe is winning, quoting CNN, the most biased news service on the planet. You know they skew their polls by questioning mostly Dems.
6   Patrick   2020 Oct 28, 9:28pm  

FuckCCP89 says
Onvacation says
I keep getting the urge to mark this NSW.


Do it!


Done. I find Hillary repulsive.
7   Ceffer   2020 Oct 29, 9:53pm  

"Democrats drop all Covid tyranny, hoping it will kill as many Republican voting elderly as possible before it is too late!"

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