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Sell stocks before January 6th?


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2021 Jan 2, 9:07pm   1,767 views  48 comments

by BoomAndBustCycle   ➕follow (1)   💰tip ()  

Curious if anyone thinks selling stocks currently at all time highs is a good idea before potential riots and violence on january 6th?

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12   BayArea   2021 Jan 2, 10:52pm  

Continue to invest.

After review of the data, I discovered there looks to be no correlation between stock market performance and whether blue or red is on office.

I was surprised by this.
13   Blue   2021 Jan 3, 12:26am  

Biden very likely can not go far left as he is forced to maintain status quo by Trump effects for the next 4 years. Most likely Tech, RE, Banks and inflation can push the stock market. Think twice before selling.
14   stfu   2021 Jan 3, 4:57am  

Why would stocks be any more (or any less) correlated to social unrest/ revolution than any other asset class?

At the end of the day the typical patnet investor, who I assume doesn't have a 8+ figure portfolio (Rin excepted), has to use the tools available to them. With the risk free rate of return below 1 percent I don't see another asset class that's better than stocks no matter what is coming.

You can make the case for gold until you look at how gold actually performed throughout modern history. Today Gold is manipulated like every fiat.
You can get into currency trades but while the USD remains the reserve currency that's a risky bet too (we are not Weimer Germany).
Bitcoin is interesting but it seems very much like gold to me, and it also has extremely high transaction costs of over 3% round trip.

Modern Corporations don't truly have a home country. I think large cap stocks will probably weather whatever is coming better than anything else (on average - there are going to be +/- 6 sigma outliers). You can roll the dice on other assets and get lucky though. If you are just trying to maintain your purchasing power however, I think stocks are probably safer than cash. Select a nice passive index ETF and forget about it. If you want additional 'insurance', put 20% into an international ETF and/ or emerging markets ETF.
15   WookieMan   2021 Jan 3, 6:19am  

stfu says
Select a nice passive index ETF and forget about it

Bingo. No point in complicating things outside of funny money you're willing to lose everything on or get a huge winner. 90% of what I do is set and forget. The other 9% is individual stocks that are usually Fortune 500 that have been beaten down. The last 1% is pure speculative bets. Basically gambling. I've lost 90% before and have made massive gains in this 1%. Hasn't failed me yet.

Unless you're literally going to trade and research stocks and currencies full time, like 60+ hours a week, you're usually going to be on the losing end with individual picks. There are smarter people and they do it for a living. No saying you cannot get gains, but too many people seek out a get rich quick stock and buy pure trash.
16   ThatGuy   2021 Jan 3, 10:52am  

I've been kicking around this idea for a few weeks, Until recently I've been in bonds but with the printing presses at full steam I've gotta bail from that position. I moved to a S&P 500 index, but It just doesn't look good to me, its at very high P/E (37.85) vs the mean (15.87) and there is a lot of risk; people are out of work, corporations got their bailouts but the people did not. Politically, if Trump indeed has a 'card', the surprise could shock markets pretty hard... or if Biden doesn't write checks to BLM or Antifa the tantrums (riots) will likely start up again...

So I've moved my money into a diversified emerging markets fund, to ride out any near term risk, and will put it back into S&P 500 when an opportunity comes up... who knows though, I'm a small fish with no real investment bragging rights.
17   just_passing_through   2021 Jan 3, 11:49am  

Patrick says
So just on that level, it doesn't look good for stocks.


I disagree in the short run. I think Biden will spend like a motherfucker with (more than Trump) Janet Yellen colluding with the FED to print until there is no tomorrow - for social justice. Long term it's bad for the country and stonx but short term I expect a giant Wall Street orgasm.
18   just_passing_through   2021 Jan 3, 12:00pm  

ThatGuy says
I moved to a S&P 500 index, but It just doesn't look good to me


I've seen a lot of financial fireside chats over the past year that speculate indexes are going to get hit hard "soon", whatever that means. Basically the idea is that these companies stock prices survive only on mindless money that gets dumped into indexes each month - yet these companies "aren't the future". So if change happens quickly indexes will be for the suckers.

Here's one that is 2 days old:



Cathie is an active manager though so of course that's what she's say. Doesn't mean she's wrong though.
19   ignoreme   2021 Jan 3, 1:03pm  

just_passing_through says
indexes are going to get hit hard "soon"


Indices can’t get hit hard without the majority of active investors also getting hit. Of course this YouTube rando might know the secret. But mathematically by definition he probably doesn’t.
20   Bitcoin   2021 Jan 3, 1:17pm  

stfu says
Bitcoin is interesting but it seems very much like gold to me, and it also has extremely high transaction costs of over 3% round trip.



Select a nice passive index ETF and forget about it


@stfu
You can buy/sell crypto cheaper than 3%.
Coinbase Pro for instance:


Index ETF isnt a bad idea.
last 12month, the SPY made you 16%


My individual stock picks made me over 45% but 2020 was an unusual year. Hard to not make money if you bought stocks during the March/April lows. And by no means am I bragging about 45% return in stocks this past year. I have plenty of friends who made > 2X in stocks in 2020.


It really all depends on your risk profile and the level of effort you are willing to put in. I am not a trader....I just dollar cost avg into opportunities and always keep cash on the sidelines in case opportunities arise.
21   just_passing_through   2021 Jan 3, 1:21pm  

ignoreme says
Of course this YouTube rando might know the secret.


Yeah, just a random video but it's no secret and there are tons of financial spokespeeps I've seen discuss this on many other channels. Realvision for one.

Also, yeah, the point is a lot of people will get hurt if there is a rotation out of indexed tracked companies over to active manager that have loaded up on 'the next big things' that the indices don't track.

ARK has done very well this year.

I'm not saying any of that will happen. I really don't know shit. Just putting it out there.
22   stfu   2021 Jan 3, 1:37pm  

@G36

QQQ up 45% in 2020. Just saying.

Can't blame you for bitcoin fever though. Hard to beat a 67000% return over the past 10, 12 years?

Also note that Coinbase pro has lower transaction fee but they also have a spread premium. But yeah it's likely lower than 3% round trip. I was going to do my first bitcoin on that platform but I've run up against the 'please submit your verification documents' bug. It won't let me fund the account.
23   Bitcoin   2021 Jan 3, 2:32pm  

@stfu, good point...tech did very well.

yep, def. a crypto fan boy here.

Hope that coinbase issue gets fixed soon for you. Customer support has been good to me at Coinbase but I can imagine ticket resolution takes longer as new all time highs in Bitcoin might bring a new wave of new coinbase users (backlog).
Have you looked into Robinhood? No commissions on BTC/ETH trades but they don't allow you to get the best available price. But that seems like pennies on the dollar to me considering the return potential.
24   clambo   2021 Jan 3, 8:18pm  

Buy stocks unless you have fewer than 10 years to live.
The losers will spend the 600 bucks as soon as they get it in their hot little hands.
I predict Apple will get a lot of the money.
keep it coming, I want my dividends.
I'm hoping Trump stays in and I might have an extra 500k by the end of 2021.
25   mich   2021 Jan 3, 9:19pm  

I do feel we're in the final stage of the bubble and will probably pop sometime this Spring. Many macroeconomist way smarter than me concur. When that happens investors will be looking where to put their money and commodities will sky rocket. Just look at Silver, Uranium, copper, lumber, oil they are still cheap and undervalued compared to stocks.

FCX up 300% - LL over 700%
26   Dholliday126   2021 Jan 3, 9:34pm  

While unachievable for most, the trick is to become an accredited investor, that opens up so many new investment vehicles. In a good market you can double the normal investment return.

As for selling, no one is a market timer, human nature is to be scared when it time to invest and enthusiastic when it's time to sell. Paralysis and FOMO are death to most undisciplined investors. Hence why you just always need to be in the market, through good and bad.

My 100 years comment was basically focusing on the general upward trend of the market, i.e. every dip has been buying opportunity.

We have no where to go but to inflate to pay for our pseudo socialistic society. We will never pay down the debt, oligarchs will only tolerate so much tax, the only way forward is to inflate until it all collapses. Until then, in theory productive assets should do fine. Unless we get heavy wealth taxes or increased capital gains taxes, then that would be negative for assets.

My base case is the slow Californiafication of the US, like a slow boiled frog in a soup of socialism. Assets should be ok for a while cause elites and banks still control everything and want to make money.
27   stfu   2021 Jan 4, 5:10am  

G36 says
Have you looked into Robinhood? No commissions on BTC/ETH trades but they don't allow you to get the best available price. But that seems like pennies on the dollar to me considering the return potential


My experience with Coinbase has put me off a little bit TBH. Now some random website (although highly rated in all my research) has all of my personal information and could use my identity (if I didn't have other safeguards in place).

Re: Robin Hood >> I'm looking for a platform that allows me to take possession of my bitcoin (hardware wallet) and I'm not sure Robinhood allows that? I know that's why I didn't go the Paypal route.

I'll probably stay out of it until Coinbase fixes their platform or until BullionVault (where I already have an account) gets into crypto.
28   zzyzzx   2021 Jan 4, 5:42am  

mich says
I do feel we're in the final stage of the bubble and will probably pop sometime this Spring.


Quoted for posterity.
29   Bitcoin   2021 Jan 4, 7:59am  

@stfu,
then Robinhood is not for you. They are like PayPal and currently dont enable you to move your crypto to your private bank (hardware wallet).

Re: Coinbase. Personally, I wouldnt call it a random website :) Coinbase is in business since 2012, recently filed for an IPO and has >35M (verified) users globally. They operate in over 100 countries and are headquartered in SF. Users get instant deposits and the fees on Coinbase Pro are fair IMO (0.5%). Coinbase works closey with regulators and they will submit your transaction history yearly to the IRS when it hits certain $ thresholds. Crypto trading - despite what some critics say - is regulated in the US. Crypto brokers that allow users to transact from FIAT to Crypto and vice versa have to comply with KYC regulations.
30   Bitcoin   2021 Jan 4, 8:13am  

Dholliday126 says
As for selling, no one is a market timer, human nature is to be scared when it time to invest and enthusiastic when it's time to sell. Paralysis and FOMO are death to most undisciplined investors.
We have no where to go but to inflate to pay for our pseudo socialistic society. We will never pay down the debt, oligarchs will only tolerate so much tax, the only way forward is to inflate until it all collapses


@Dholliday126 great post.
Exactly, dont try to be the market timer. I would add, dont try to trade unless you know what your doing and can stomach the losses. I bought another house in 2020 and I cant tell you how many people told me the RE market is going to collapse and I will lose a ton of money. Everyone's an expert nowadays. Every year we hear from "experts" the stock market is going to crash. And for crypto (Bitcoin was declared "dead" at least 5,000 times. BTC just had its 12th birthday and is trading at all time highs). I continue to buy assets and dollar cost avg into the markets and maintain patience. I am doing just fine...cutting out the noise from "experts" is the only "issue" I run into.
31   rocketjoe79   2021 Jan 4, 10:37am  

Yep, the selloff started today. I'm holding, and if we get a 10% correction, I'm buying! My TSLA is holding up well though.
32   BoomAndBustCycle   2021 Jan 4, 8:30pm  

Dholliday126 says
Paralysis and FOMO


Oh god, do I know about paralysis. Back in March I had $100k equity line on my house ready to tap... a fresh $30k in cash ready to invest. And it sat in my brokerage account untouched. I of course let my 401k ride the wave and kept putting 10% of my paychecks every two weeks... but due to legitimate fear of losing my job at the time I couldn’t bring myself to risk cash or leverage my heloc. Kept waiting for the double dip that never came. Only consolation prize is I more than doubled my cash from $30k to $70k just by being extra frugal the last year.
33   Dholliday126   2021 Jan 4, 8:40pm  

BoomAndBustCycle says
Dholliday126 says
Paralysis and FOMO


Oh god, do I know about paralysis. Back in March I had $100k equity line on my house ready to tap... a fresh $30k in cash ready to invest. And it sat in my brokerage account untouched. I of course let my 401k ride the wave and kept putting 10% of my paychecks every two weeks... but due to legitimate fear of losing my job at the time I couldn’t bring myself to risk cash or leverage my heloc. Kept waiting for the double dip that never came. Only consolation prize is I more than doubled my cash from $30k to $70k just by being extra frugal the last year.


Dude I took a bath on 2007/8 in the market and sat in cash for a decade, then got back in and doubled my money in a few years. Probably would have quadrupled my money if I never left. It's hard as shit to stay the course.
34   clambo   2021 Jan 4, 9:13pm  

You should never sell stocks while 1. interest rates are low 2. inflation and taxes are reasonable rates.

Like Alec Baldwin said in Glengarry Glenn Ross: “The money is just sitting out there waiting for you to take it. Are you man enough to take it?”

Just as the bullshit fake news goes on all day, so does the financial bullshit on CNBC and elsewhere.

Every day worldwide rich guys have new cash to invest; they own businesses and the untold masses of wage slaves spend all they made that week. The rich guys have a decision; do they buy bonds or stocks?

Today the answer is simple, stocks are better than bonds.
I read a rumor that Apple will raise their dividend in February.
I’m a bit amazed that I get paid more in Apple dividends than I made working a job after college.
Hold cash? No fuckin way.
35   FarmersWon   2021 Jan 4, 9:23pm  

Sikhs have this concept of "Chardi Kala"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charhdi_Kala

I am very positive about rejuvenation of American real economy.
The CCP sponsored twitter/facebook etc. may go down, But the manufacturing and in technology real software/hardware is expected to do well.
36   Misc   2021 Jan 5, 4:51am  

I dunno, most recent figures I have are from back in November. That was when margin debt increased 9.5% month over month. Went from about $660 billion in October to about $722 billion in November. That's for those trading geniuses with retail brokerage accounts. So in addition to all the money that was "saved" and put into stocks an extra $62 billion was borrowed and put into stocks in one month. Since the market cap of Ford is about $33 billion, these geniuses borrowed about twice the value of Ford and "invested" these billions willy-nilly into their favorite can't miss stocks. Looks like they did about the same in December.

What could possibly go wrong?
37   zzyzzx   2021 Jan 5, 5:03am  

Dholliday126 says
Dude I took a bath on 2007/8 in the market and sat in cash for a decade


If I could time the market, I would have retired in Caligulan splendor long ago.

Dholliday126 says
Back in March I had $100k equity line on my house ready to tap... a fresh $30k in cash ready to invest. And it sat in my brokerage account untouched. I of course let my 401k ride the wave and kept putting 10% of my paychecks every two weeks... but due to legitimate fear of losing my job at the time I couldn’t bring myself to risk cash or leverage my heloc.


A legitimate reason to not invest at the moment.
38   WookieMan   2021 Jan 5, 8:26am  

Misc says
That was when margin debt increased 9.5% month over month.

Concerning for sure, but it's not always reinvested into stocks and securities. With interest rates so low, you can borrow say $100k against your stocks for ridiculously low amount monthly. It's how we bought our current house, so we had leverage with the bank because it was a foreclosure. Cash is king in real estate. We then refi'd a couple months later. I think our monthly interest only carry cost was about $220/mo.

So while it was a margin loan, it wasn't inflating the stock market. Others could be opening a business or funding it to stay afloat like restaurants and salons during the pandemic.

My guess though based on the retarded crypto values and the month over month increase in margin debt, much of that increase went into BTC and other top level Crypto coins. People will double down on stupid I guess and FOMO. If I'm correct on this, some individuals are going to take a bath here soon. This is exactly what happened Dec. 2017. Not logical pumps and then the bottom falls out. Took almost 3 years to get back here. Whales and institutional finally got traction to suck little guys back in with their cash or margin to steal it from them.
39   Bitcoin   2021 Jan 5, 8:37am  

WookieMan says
crypto values and the month over month increase in margin debt, much of that increase went into BTC and other top level Crypto coins.


@WookieMan
We have seen nothing yet in Crypto. The bull market has just started. JPM just came out with a price prediction of 146k for Bitcoin.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05/jpmorgan-sees-146-000-plus-bitcoin-price-as-long-term-target

Today the U.S. regulator (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) released guidance for banks. Banks are entering the crypto market now.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-prices-jump-after-u-s-regulator-says-banks-can-use-stablecoin-connect-to-blockchains-11609811050
40   Misc   2021 Jan 5, 10:04am  

Looks like the Bitcoin bull has fallen behind trend. The total reserve of gold held by the United States is only 8133.50 tonnes. At today's price that put the value of the gold reserve at $509 billion roughly.

The market value of Bitcoin is in excess of that figure based on today's dollar price.

Who am I to say diamonds are over priced?

Of course, Bitcoin can go up another 8 times its value from here.

If JP Morgan says buy, what could possibly go wrong?
41   Bitcoin   2021 Jan 5, 10:12am  

Misc says


Of course, Bitcoin can go up another 8 times its value from here.



I would say easily 8 times from todays value is doable in the next 12 month for Bitcoin.
Many Altcoins will outperform Bitcoin. However there is more risk involved. Ethereum will easily outperform Bitcoin percentage wise.

Some coins are being used to build government infrastructure to digitalize national money. See Stellar Lumens (XLM) and Ukraine:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-government-picks-stellar-help-140028973.html
42   Misc   2021 Jan 5, 10:39am  

WookieMan says
Misc says
That was when margin debt increased 9.5% month over month.

Concerning for sure, but it's not always reinvested into stocks and securities. With interest rates so low, you can borrow say $100k against your stocks for ridiculously low amount monthly. It's how we bought our current house, so we had leverage with the bank because it was a foreclosure. Cash is king in real estate. We then refi'd a couple months later. I think our monthly interest only carry cost was about $220/mo.

So while it was a margin loan, it wasn't inflating the stock market. Others could be opening a business or funding it to stay afloat like restaurants and salons during the pandemic.

My guess though based on the retarded crypto values and the month over month increase in margin debt, much of that increase went into BTC and other top level Crypto coins. People will double down on stupid I guess ...


While it is possible for margin loans to be used for purposes outside of buying securities, it is more likely that other loans have been initiated by these trading geniuses to purchase securities. I just don't even want to know how many cash-out re-fi's have been done with some of that cash going into trendy stocks or alt-coins. Tap a HELOC to buy Bitcoin or TSLA? --- What could go wrong? Why not put it on a credit card? Interest rates there are low compared to the increase in value offered by these investments.
43   Bitcoin   2021 Jan 5, 10:52am  

Misc says


I just don't even want to know how many cash-out re-fi's have been done with some of that cash going into trendy stocks or alt-coins. Tap a HELOC to buy Bitcoin or TSLA? --- What could go wrong?


@Misc
The crypto bull market is driven by institutional investors. They dont take out heloc's or use their credit card. (paypal, michael saylor, square invested hundreds of millions of USD into Bitcoin). You might want to do a little bit of research....

Retail investors have just slowly started to enter the crypto market again (see google search term of Bitcoin "trends").

"Across the U.S. and Europe, 36% of the survey’s 774 respondents said they own cryptocurrencies or derivatives. In the U.S., 27% of institutions — including pension funds, family offices, investment advisers and digital and traditional hedge funds — said they own digital assets, up from 22% about a year ago, when Fidelity surveyed 441 institutions just in the U.S. In Europe, 45% of respondents are invested in digital assets.

https://www.investmentnews.com/third-institutional-investors-hold-crypto-assets-fidelity-193833
44   Misc   2021 Jan 5, 11:04am  

Bitcoin does have a much larger advertising budget than the government of Thailand, and a much more naive audience.

If a survey was done on the number of people holding Thai Bahts as a store of wealth in the US or Europe, the number would be negligible.

... and that's a real currency
45   Bitcoin   2021 Jan 5, 11:11am  

Misc says
Bitcoin does have a much larger advertising budget than the government of Thailand.



Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency. There is no CEO, no marketing department and no advertising budget. No number to call. No Headquarter.

Built into its code, Bitcoin has true scarcity (only 21M Bitcoin can be created) and the the block reward for mining new bitcoin is halved, meaning that bitcoin miners will receive 50% less bitcoin for every transaction they verify. BTC halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, which equates to a halving occurring approximately every 4 years.

Again @Misc do your research. Or are you just trolling?
46   Misc   2021 Jan 5, 11:13am  

Coinbase has over 35 million users. --- Those are not institutional investors. Those are your Holder geniuses.
47   Bitcoin   2021 Jan 5, 11:35am  

Misc says
Coinbase has over 35 million users. --- Those are not institutional investors. Those are your Holder geniuses.


@Misc
Oh man, please do at least some research....Why in the world would you think the 35M users are ONLY retail? Some here have not even done basic research on what's going on with Crypto.....Which is fine....but then don't comment on the topic with such an obvious lack of knowledge.

There is
Coinbase (for new users)
Coinbase Pro (for advanced users / traders)
Coinbase Prime (for Institutional investors)
Coinbase OTC (Over The Counter, big money investors)

https://news.bitcoin.com/coinbase-20-billion-cryptocurrency-custody-institutional-investors/

"Tejpaul has 25 years of experience in sales and trading, with almost 17 years at Barclays, and nine years at JPMorgan. He explained that he joined Coinbase six months ago, and is now “responsible for growing the institutional adoption of cryptocurrency, across sales, trading, custody, and Prime.” Prime is Coinbase’s services for institutional clients, including asset managers, hedge funds, and VCs.
“It’s a phenomenal time for crypto … Sometimes timing is everything,” Tejpaul opined. “We have had an explosion of activity,” he added, elaborating:
I joined in April this year, at that time our assets, institutional assets under custody were $6 billion, today we stand at over $20 billion, so more than a three time increase."
48   Bitcoin   2021 Jan 5, 11:38am  

@Misc

i'll give you that....retail investors are quickly jumping into the market....judging by the enormous amount of interest / google trends and media coverage.

Also....Dogecoin was trending on Twitter the other day....lol

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