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I'm starting to think DEFLATION is coming

By joshuatrio follow joshuatrio   2021 Jul 16, 11:39am 1,346 views   107 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Simply because all I hear about on the internet/news/podcasts is inflation, INFLATION, INFLATION... When MSM is spewing one thing, haven't we learned by now to do the opposite?

At some point, people can't keep up with the rising prices and quit buying. Wouldn't that naturally lead to deflation? I know the fed can print indefinitely, but if people refuse to spend, I think we'd still have a downward slope in prices. Additionally, with the "supply" shortages caused by government paying people to stay home, I would assume these shortages would stop once people start going back.

Ourselves and people in our neighborhood pretty much said "fuck it" to all projects that required lumber, and we're seeing those prices starting to come back down. I think we'll see the same with car prices and most other commodities.

Here was a good article on what I feel is starting to happen:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-here-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans

I was gung ho on buying real estate the other month, but I've had some people who own hundreds of rentals tell me last month to wait 3-6 months minimum, as they expect prices to start falling.

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68   Misc   ignore (0)   2021 Jul 19, 12:46pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

RC2006 says
There is a great future in bullets. Think about it. Will you think about it?


Have you seen the price of ammo recently?

I have no doubt it is a great investment.
69   Hircus   ignore (0)   2021 Jul 19, 12:49pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

richwicks says
and I don't think a farmer is going to be trading you food for a bitcoin.


Personally, part of my portfolio diversification / retirement plan is to purchase / build a small farm with decent self sufficiency. A deep well, decent soil, good supply of seeds, some animals, solar, septic, and remote.

It's good insurance against a lot of potential catastrophes. Doesn't cost too much either, and will likely hold its value well.
70   richwicks   ignore (3)   2021 Jul 19, 12:51pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Misc says
There is no savior in gold. The gold simply doesn't exist and if you have any, it will simply be confiscated because it's been outlawed.


People accumulating gold would dump it in the Mariana's trench rather than give it to the criminals that caused the economic collapse.

This isn't the 1930's any more when people had a high level of trust in the government. In fact, prior to the outlawing of gold in 1933, many people sent it over-seas. This is why gold coins from the late 1920's are in pristine condition. They were never circulated.
71   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Jul 19, 12:55pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

RC2006 says
There is a great future in bullets. Think about it. Will you think about it?


Sure. Consider that the ATF regulates exactly those things that preserve wealth in a societal meltdown: Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms

I believe it's illegal for you to own and warehouse more than a certain amount of alcohol without a special permit from our owners, so they can know where it is and come take it if you oppose their mastery over you.

richwicks says
At the end of Wiemar Germany, you could literally buy a HOUSE with a single ounce of gold.


Yes, and at the end of the Nazi era, people used cigarettes as currency because:

1. there is always demand and they are not trivial to create
2. a carton of cigarettes could be split into packs (how many packs in a carton?), and packs into (typically 20) individual cigarettes to make change
72   Onvacation   ignore (7)   2021 Jul 19, 1:22pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Hircus says
46 hrs per oz sounds reasonable.

Current price of $1800 / 46 = about $39 per hour equivalent.

Equals $78K per year.

It's still a relatively rich mans game.
73   RC2006   ignore (2)   2021 Jul 19, 1:52pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Hircus says
richwicks says
and I don't think a farmer is going to be trading you food for a bitcoin.


Personally, part of my portfolio diversification / retirement plan is to purchase / build a small farm with decent self sufficiency. A deep well, decent soil, good supply of seeds, some animals, solar, septic, and remote.

It's good insurance against a lot of potential catastrophes. Doesn't cost too much either, and will likely hold its value well.


This is my long term goal. Also would be nice to leave for kids hopefully I will be able to instill the value of it so they would keep it for future generations.
74   richwicks   ignore (3)   2021 Jul 19, 3:50pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Hircus says
Personally, part of my portfolio diversification / retirement plan is to purchase / build a small farm with decent self sufficiency. A deep well, decent soil, good supply of seeds, some animals, solar, septic, and remote.


Unless you grew up in the sticks, like I did, and actually tended a relatively large garden, like I was forced to do as a kid, as a chore, you have no idea how unrealistic it is to live off the land, especially in old age.

You know what the principle difference between a vegetable you grow in your own garden, and one you buy at the store? It's a hell of a lot less work to buy it at the store.

Your primary concern will be obtaining water. Solar power and septic, those are easy to do and really not necessary to be honest.
75   Hircus   ignore (0)   2021 Jul 19, 4:31pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I plan to keep it somewhat low maintenance. My desire isn't to live off the land most of the time, but to be able to live off the land, if needed. If the need arises, I can plant lots of additional seed, and begin multiplying the animals. Stockpiles of dry goods can easily cover food needs during a farm ramp up phase.
76   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2021 Jul 19, 5:30pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Misc says
There is no savior in gold. The gold simply doesn't exist and if you have any, it will simply be confiscated because it's been outlawed.

A farmer isn't going to be trading you food for gold either, but since farmers on average are in debt about $1 million, they will trade for dollars.


4,000 years of history and free/black markets say otherwise.
77   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2021 Jul 19, 5:36pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Hircus says
46 hrs per oz sounds reasonable.

Current price of $1800 / 46 = about $39 per hour equivalent.

He said MEDIAN labor. I believe median labor is around $25/hour. So, that means 72 hours.
78   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2021 Jul 19, 5:38pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Misc says
RC2006 says
There is a great future in bullets. Think about it. Will you think about it?


Have you seen the price of ammo recently?

I have no doubt it is a great investment.

It is starting to come down.
79   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (1)   2021 Jul 19, 5:53pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WineHorror1 says
He said MEDIAN labor. I believe median labor is around $25/hour. So, that means 72 hours.

Yeah.

So it means by our reckoning that either gold is over-priced in dollars, or the decline in our living standard has accelerated from the 1% per year we reckoned for 1971 to 1995.
80   Misc   ignore (0)   2021 Jul 19, 9:12pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

As a percent of our nation's wealth, gold has plummeted in value.
81   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Jul 20, 9:33am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/happens-currency-collapses-lebanon/

What happens when your currency collapses?
The Lebanese are living through a terrible economic experiment
82   Bitcoin   ignore (17)   2021 Jul 20, 9:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WineHorror1 says
Misc says
RC2006 says
There is a great future in bullets. Think about it. Will you think about it?


Have you seen the price of ammo recently?

I have no doubt it is a great investment.

It is starting to come down.


got a few 100 rounds 9mm for $49ea. Best price since a looong time. finally.
83   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2021 Jul 20, 10:03am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Misc says
As a percent of our nation's wealth, gold has plummeted in value.


What wealth? You mean the record unemployment? The record national debt? The outsourcing of all manufacturing? Dependence on industrialized food? Shortages in basic raw materials across all industries?

But forget all that. You go out and buy some gold right now for the paper spot price(paper because it's based on trading contracts, not physical), and get delivery in a week. Go ahead, I'll wait...
84   Bd6r   ignore (1)   2021 Jul 20, 3:55pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Hircus says
I plan to keep it somewhat low maintenance. My desire isn't to live off the land most of the time, but to be able to live off the land, if needed. If the need arises, I can plant lots of additional seed, and begin multiplying the animals. Stockpiles of dry goods can easily cover food needs during a farm ramp up phase.

We are coming to the same conclusion.

Luckily in E. TX water is not a problem most of the time, land is productive, taxes rather low with ag exemption, and mineral rights can be profitable.
85   richwicks   ignore (3)   2021 Jul 20, 4:23pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Misc says
As a percent of our nation's wealth, gold has plummeted in value.


Yeah, we're so wealthy we are now selling farmland directly to the Chinese. No kidding.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2021/07/china-is-buying-billions-in-us-farmland-and-lawmakers-are-scrambling-to-try-to-stop-them/

And no, US lawmakers are NOT trying to stop them. They are selling the country.
86   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Jul 20, 5:46pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

They've already sold the country to China by outsourcing almost all US manufacturing to them.

But yes, selling our farmland makes it worse. At least we can take it back easily.
87   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2021 Jul 20, 6:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WineHorror1 says
Misc says
RC2006 says
There is a great future in bullets. Think about it. Will you think about it?


Have you seen the price of ammo recently?

I have no doubt it is a great investment.

It is starting to come down.


It is. Just found 9mm for $.33/round. A month ago it was about a dollar a round and pre hoaxdemix it was $.19/round.
88   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2021 Jul 20, 6:22pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says
It is. Just found 9mm for $.33/round. A month ago it was about a dollar a round and pre hoaxdemix it was $.19/round.

Defense or range rounds?
89   Booger   ignore (6)   2021 Jul 20, 6:32pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Does all the legal shoplifting in San Francisco count as deflation?
90   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2021 Jul 20, 6:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Booger says
Does all the legal shoplifting in San Francisco count as deflation?

It blows my mind that there is not more of this going on. Have all the retail outlets put all merch behind bars and glass yet?
91   Misc   ignore (0)   2021 Jul 21, 5:01am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NuttBoxer says
Misc says
As a percent of our nation's wealth, gold has plummeted in value.


What wealth? You mean the record unemployment? The record national debt? The outsourcing of all manufacturing? Dependence on industrialized food? Shortages in basic raw materials across all industries?

But forget all that. You go out and buy some gold right now for the paper spot price(paper because it's based on trading contracts, not physical), and get delivery in a week. Go ahead, I'll wait...


The government is not going to allow the peasants to collapse the banking system. The government will simply outlaw physical ownership of precious metals,

Good luck finding anyone to take it as payment when that happens.
92   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2021 Jul 21, 10:19am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Misc says
The government is not going to allow the peasants to collapse the banking system. The government will simply outlaw physical ownership of precious metals,

Good luck finding anyone to take it as payment when that happens.


Did you know Weimer Germany had a government? So did Ethiopia, Venezuela, America, Rome, etc. Yet they all experienced financial collapses. So what happened there? Are you saying those governments chose to allow the collapse?

Have you not read the recent Basil updates? They're actually pushing the other way, demanding central banks hold more gold in reserve. Tennessee recently put up a law restoring gold and silver as currency.

But gold/silver will not be used in every day transactions in a stable economy without a lot of change first. And part of that change will be collapse. In a collapse, how many people you think are going to be concerned about preventing people from trading in coin when they're families are without food? Especially considering the gun ownership rates in this country. But maybe this is the first time in history that free/black markets will be completely eradicated?
93   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Jul 21, 5:48pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Misc says
The government is not going to allow the peasants to collapse the banking system. The government will simply outlaw physical ownership of precious metals,


They will outlaw the physical ownership of precious metals again.

Roosevelt did it in the Great Depression already.
94   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (1)   2021 Jul 21, 8:17pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Roosevelt did it in the Great Depression already.

Yeah. But the mining stocks rose fabulously.
95   SumatraBosch   ignore (7)   2021 Jul 21, 8:51pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

There is no reason a 3/2 in Vallejo shouldn't be valued at $500 million if it has a driveway.
96   mell   ignore (6)   2021 Jul 21, 11:06pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

SumatraBosch says
There is no reason a 3/2 in Vallejo shouldn't be valued at $500 million if it has a driveway.


Exactly!
97   stfu   ignore (0)   2021 Jul 23, 12:07pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      



M2 velocity. Murray says hi.
98   richwicks   ignore (3)   2021 Jul 23, 12:25pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Misc says
The government is not going to allow the peasants to collapse the banking system. The government will simply outlaw physical ownership of precious metals,


They will outlaw the physical ownership of precious metals again.


They may be true, but the people who have been hording precious metals will kill before they turn them in. They regard the government as a bunch of criminals, and their right to think this.

The COMEX is provably manipulated. JP Morgan was charging for storage of precious metals without actually purchasing it, Barrack mining claiming they were part of a government price suppression scheme when they were sued in court, and gold bugs have been slandered and libeled for 20 years - and nobody goes to jail.

There's not the dynamic that there was in the 1930's and a lot of what we were told about the 1930's, didn't happen. You can buy a 1920's gold $20 piece today, and you'll find out, it's in near or mint condition, because people didn't circulate it. They also didn't turn them in.
99   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (1)   2021 Jul 23, 3:33pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

richwicks says
You can buy a 1920's gold $20 piece today, and you'll find out, it's in near or mint condition, because people didn't circulate it. They also didn't turn them in.

Exactly!

They held onto it for four decades during which the stocks went up (including the mining stocks went up), and deposits and Treasuries paid them interest.

If they needed to spend they redeemed some of those stocks/deposits/CDs/Treasuries for cash that they could spend, or maybe just spent the dividends/interest.

The Gold Hoarder could not spend his hoarded gold in the US without breaking the law, - meaning that whomever he sold it to was also breaking the law. This sounds like the risks of selling any contraband like unregistered firearms, illegal drugs, or whatever. He could admire his shiny gold coin but do little else with it. Like Gollum with his Precious.
100   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Jul 23, 3:38pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

He could wait it out, maybe pass it on to the next generation. It won't grow in real value, but it won't lose in real value either.

If you find a gold coin from the Roman Empire, it still has about the same value as gold back then, ignoring the historical value.

Governments change, and if We The People get better focused on the things that matter (like the criminality of the government-oligarch-corporate complex) and less focused on things that serve to divide us (race, sex, etc) then we will eventually get back the right to use gold and silver as literal hard currency.
101   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (1)   2021 Jul 23, 8:38pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
He could wait it out

He could wait it out, if he lived four more decades. Or he could put it to work.

The government set the gold price at $35 per ounce in January 1934, when the DJIA was 75.

Gold was legal to own again in January, 1975. The market price was about $175. DJIA was 850.
ill-liquid gold up 500% during that time, if you're still alive 4 decades later. DJIA up 1100%, with the ability to sell every business day during those four decades.

Gold today 1802. DJIA 35,060
Gold up 5150% since the 1934 seizure. DJIA up 46,700% since the seizure... and cash flow from dividends!

Yeah, Hoarding shiny gold, like Gollum in Lord of the Rings with his Precious, is really so much more savvy.
102   HunterTits   ignore (4)   2021 Jul 24, 1:43pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

B.A.C.A.H. says

Yeah, Hoarding shiny gold, like Gollum in Lord of the Rings with his Precious, is really so much more savvy.


You seem to confuse SAVING with INVESTING.

One does not SAVE in the stock market.
103   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Jul 24, 2:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Right, I'm just talking about preserving the buying power of cash.

Gold does that. It's not an investment, does not grow in value.
104   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (1)   2021 Jul 24, 3:21pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

HunterTits says
You seem to confuse SAVING with INVESTING.

One does not SAVE in the stock market.


Agreed. I got carried away with that topic. Maybe I saved some savings in bullion also.

But this does not change the reality that for about forty years, the gold saver could not spend his savings without having another illegal partner in crime in the transaction.
105   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2021 Jul 24, 6:28pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

B.A.C.A.H. says
The Gold Hoarder could not spend his hoarded gold in the US without breaking the law, - meaning that whomever he sold it to was also breaking the law. This sounds like the risks of selling any contraband like unregistered firearms, illegal drugs, or whatever. He could admire his shiny gold coin but do little else with it.


Actually, according to the Constitution, only gold and silver have ever constituted legal money. Even the Federal Reserve admits this directly on their notes, that the paper represents debt. Real money never represents an obligation to repay.

The act did not make gold and silver illegal, it just removed the redemption requirement for Federal Reserve paper. As a point-in-fact, junk silver was still issued by the US Treasury through the 50's.

The central bank game has never been to directly attack gold and silver as money, because it would never work. Instead, they write laws to force the acceptance of their bad money, and once people realize that can pay something with worthless paper, rather than real money, the money quickly disappears from circulation.

And I haven't even addressed black/free markets, and easy it has always been to circumvent the law, especially the ridiculous ones.
106   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2021 Jul 24, 6:38pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Gold does that. It's not an investment, does not grow in value.


Yes, gold is not bitcoin. That is why it has served as currency since the beginning of time. It is also not stocks, central bank debt notes, mortgages, or any of the endless pieces of paper central banks use to steal from us through their greatest asset, inflation. And there's the rub. You see, if you support fiat assets to gain "wealth", you have to support screwing somebody. If you support gold and silver, you can make your wealth with a clear conscious, knowing no widows or orphans were put out in the street so you could have that addition on your home.
107   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (1)   2021 Jul 24, 7:11pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NuttBoxer says
Actually, according to the Constitution, only gold and silver have ever constituted legal money. Even the Federal Reserve admits this directly on their notes, that the paper represents debt. Real money never represents an obligation to repay.


If you say so. What ever. I wonder if they cited those lines in the Constitution to the agent of the IRS:

By Executive Order Of The President of The United States, March 9, 1933.

By virtue of the authority vested in me by Section 5 (b) of the Act of October 6, 1917, as amended by Section 2 of the Act of March 9, 1933, in which Congress declared that a serious emergency exists, I as President, do declare that the national emergency still exists; that the continued private hoarding of gold and silver by subjects of the United States poses a grave threat to the peace, equal justice, and well-being of the United States; and that appropriate measures must be taken immediately to protect the interests of our people.
Therefore, pursuant to the above authority, I hereby proclaim that such gold and silver holdings are prohibited, and that all such coin, bullion or other possessions of gold and silver be tendered within fourteen days to agents of the Government of the United States for compensation at the official price, in the legal tender of the Government.
All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed, pending action in the due course of the law. All sales or purchases or movements of such gold and silver within the borders of the United States and its territories and all foreign exchange transactions or movements of such metals across the border are hereby prohibited.
Your possession of these proscribed metals and/or your maintenance of a safe deposit box to store them is known by the government from bank and insurance records. Therefore, be advised that your vault box must remain sealed, and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the Internal Revenue Service.
By lawful order given this day, the President of the United States.
Franklin Roosevelt – March 9, 1933

(yes, I know, they continued issuing coinage in what you called "junk" silver).

Like President Jackson said about the Supreme Court ruling on a Constitutional issue back in the day, "John Marshall has made his decision; now let him enforce it."

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