patrick.net

stfu says

I feel like a british citizen circa 1890. "yeah, that upstart USA might be a problem for us at some point, but we have the reserve currency so we're golden".

There is nothing I like about China but I'd be a fool to ignore it from an investing standpoint. Having said that, China stawks are getting killed this year.

Britain gave up its reserve currency status all by itself w/o any US help or even German help. And they the US didn't have to go to war with Britain to take its place. (No Thucydides Trap)

In fact, the US didn't plan to become the world's hegemon. It was thrust upon it.

The situation with China is different (not that they will succeed, China is toast despite what the media or trade balances say).

clambo says

I wonder what Nevada exports to Switzerland; gold and silver?

Money, in all probability.

Seriously, wonder what is considered 'trade' in these graphs.

As for the Carolinas, don't they assemble mercedes and volkswagons and re-export to Germany?

HunterTits says

China is toast despite what the media or trade balances say

Why do you think so @HunterTits ?

farmer2021 says

@Patrick,
Although these charts may project doomsday picture for US.
.. But China did this with tri-evils.
1) Using humans/inmates as "cheap forced labor" and curtailing all human rights.

There was a time that Western nations wouldn't trade with Communist nations for precisely this reason. This policy reversed once the USSR collapsed.

Patrick says

HunterTits says

China is toast despite what the media or trade balances say

Why do you think so @HunterTits ?

You have to see where all the "debt" is going.In the end "debt mountain" will collapse as it is used for useless temporary stuff not to build long lasting infrstructure.
In the end like Hindoo, CCP guys will run to Europe or USA where they are hiding their wealth.
It is immoral for "USA or other western" nations to let CCP guys steal the wealth of poor Chinese. Unfortunately Darwin reigns supreme and there is no justice for weak.
https://patrick.net/post/1340293/2021-07-27-china-poor-construction-interesting-vid

richwicks says

There was a time that Western nations wouldn't trade with Communist nations for precisely this reason. This policy reversed once the USSR collapsed.

Eh? US and Western Europe have never stopped trading with Commies. US was selling car plants and power generators to Stalin while he was killing millions. What do you think Soviet cars and trucks made by GAZ plant were? Fucking Fords to a last fucking bolt! The most successful Soviet tank of WWII? Based on design bought from American engineer J.W.Christie. After the war they again were buying automotive plants from the West (FIAT), grain from US and Canada and selling oil and gas to Western Europe. Jet engines in MIG-15 fighting our Sabres in Korea? Rolls-Royce.

It never stopped.

Eric Holder says

richwicks says

There was a time that Western nations wouldn't trade with Communist nations for precisely this reason. This policy reversed once the USSR collapsed.

Eh? US and Western Europe have never stopped trading with Commies. US was selling car plants and power generators to Stalin while he was killing millions. What do you think Soviet cars and trucks made by GAZ plant were? Fucking Fords to a last fucking bolt! The most successful Soviet tank of WWII? Based on design bought from American engineer J.W.Christie. After the war they again were buying automotive plants from the West (FIAT), grain from US and Canada and selling oil and gas to Western Europe. It never stopped.

Elites and people in power are equally immoral everywhere.
In the in wars etc. only the commoners suffer. It is best to not hate your "fellow human commoner" for whatever reason.
In most cases he is just brainwashed to do bidding of elites.

farmer2021 says

Unfortunately Darwin reigns supreme and their is no justice for weak.

If you are weak, you must be wise. This is the way things have naturally played out forever in human societies.

But socialism breaks that natural law, allowing the weak to be wildly successful by flaunting their weakness and creating mass numbers of their own kind all supported by the collective of productive workers. It’s not a system that can ever work for very long.

Shaman says

farmer2021 says

Unfortunately Darwin reigns supreme and their is no justice for weak.

If you are weak, you must be wise. This is the way things have naturally played out forever in human societies.

But socialism breaks that natural law, allowing the weak to be wildly successful by flaunting their weakness and creating mass numbers of their own kind all supported by the collective of productive workers. It’s not a system that can ever work for very long.

America or as a matter of fact no country is totally capitalist or socialist.
Honesty of leaders is most important trait for success. South Korea and Singapore were widely successful with semi-autocracy to set their country on success path as leaders were highly motivated.

I think if we leave weak behind, we are no longer a country and will be messed soon by outsiders.
You can see how CCP is manipulating us due to significant "poverty" created by elites in midwest whites and also inner city non-whites.

Ban slave made products.

Refuse entry of slave-made products' shipping into US ports.

Arm everyone in Hong Kong with M134 and a million rounds of ammo each.

Patrick says

Why do you think so @HunterTits ?

Long list of reasons But two biggies stand out:. Number one is Demographic. Number two is China's reliance on exports & imports for its GDP far, far more than the US has. Germany is going to suffer from the same reasons...especially the combination of #1 & #2. But Germany got rich before it got old, unlike China. Filthy rich.

China and Germany both will soon start the slide from being creditor nations to debtor ones as their demographic slide start to go really downhill. Like within a 5 year span this will occur when it starts.

Same thing happened to Japan. The US is the only OECD nation that has decent demographics, thanks to the elites colonizing our country with foreigners.

On top of this, the world system of safe transport of commercial shipping is going down the shitter too, because the US isn't going to do that job anymore...not w/o charging other countries one way or another. That's really going to hurt the net exporter, net creditor nations like Germany and China. A LOT. Right at the same time their demographic bombs go off.

Remember Japan was going to take over the world? What happened? Same thing is going to happen to China. Only the Japanese, like the Germans, got wealthy before that happened. China -- for all its 'accomplishments' -- came up short on that. Worse, now their demographics are actually IMPLODING from a collapse in birth rates that is probably worse than in Japan.

In 2019, the age of the average Chinese worker became higher than than of the average American worker. Throw in the one child societycide and you have two couples supporting four parents and possibly up to eight grandparents. At least Germany doesn't have that problem (but has others).

No one in China wants to fuck because FUCK!, they're in China!

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57979857

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which follows the 98 biggest US-listed Chinese stocks, has fallen by almost 15% in the last two trading sessions.

The index has now plummeted by more than 45% since hitting a record high in February.

The slump comes after a series of crackdowns by Beijing on its technology and education industries.

This has led to around $770bn (£556bn) being wiped off the value of US-listed Chinese stocks in the last five months alone.

Any private company in China can be taken over or shut down at any moment by the CCP.

It is not safe to do business in China.

Patrick says

Any private company in China can be taken over or shut down at any moment by the CCP.

In this case I bet the firms referred to were scams that didn't pay off the right CCP people, so were shut down. Or their gigs were up and the public found out. Same result. Not really different than how things operate here, when you think of it.

HunterTits says

Patrick says

Any private company in China can be taken over or shut down at any moment by the CCP.

In this case I bet the firms referred to were scams that didn't pay off the right CCP people, so were shut down. Or their gigs were up and the public found out. Same result. Not really different than how things operate here, when you think of it.

https://youtu.be/_jRco70pl90
China has no private sector or stock market. It is facade by CCP to steal technology from west by bribing our elites in name of "fake corporate sector".
CCP is too incompetent to let any private enterprise compete with it. It is a war mongering cult trying hegemony over world.

As soon as CCP plan to "dominate" get threatened, some private companies will pay.
e.g.
Need for more kids to slave in future. Ban the "private tutoring" to reduce childcare costs: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/26/business/china-private-education.html
(Forced pregnancies are coming soon, May be more efficient artificial insemination like cattle)

Alibaba communist is under house arrest or something I believe. He was becoming too uppity for CCP.
They are clipping "DiDi" and other companies wings. Private sector is arm of communist party to gain wealth.

CCP agents are always funny.
You don't grow your "debt" multiple times in decade for nothing.

https://twitter.com/ruima/status/1420060835313971200
China wants to be a manufacturing-based superpower, not a financialized one (like the US).

Very few understand this.
(Which is bizarre, since it's all the gov't talks about.)

farmer2021 says

China wants to be a manufacturing-based superpower, not a financialized one (like the US).

The Chinese are pretty smart. That's why they got all the factories. That's what gives them power over America now.

Patrick says

farmer2021 says

China wants to be a manufacturing-based superpower, not a financialized one (like the US).

The Chinese are pretty smart. That's why they got all the factories. That's what gives them power over America now.

There is no doubt that chinese are smart but they also have big flaws especially their ruling class.
Spending vast majority of sums on production on backs of impoverished masses toiling in inhuman conditions will let to big failure.
They have ruined their environment and built mountain of debt for this foolhardy exercise.

China will fail like it always did in past. The biggest flaw in Chinese is extreme conformity to authority... But when it eventually bursts it is like a volcano.
CCP is always afraid of it, But it has set the course for that event to happen. Peasants will eventually come for them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rebellions_in_China

Patrick says

The Chinese are pretty smart. That's why they got all the factories. That's what gives them power over America now.

Rust Belt still has hundreds of factories. Did when they were shuttered.

Those factories lose viability as they rust and the knowledge of how to run them is lost.

Patrick says

Those factories lose viability as they rust and the knowledge of how to run them is lost.

Some would be lost even without China to technology improvement or market change.
Also China has peaked and lot of rust belts(10x more than US) will be created there soon.. probably many already. The environment cleanup of this will bankrupt china.
CCP is just trying to save skin from peasants by creating useless manufacturing... See the videos I posed on "china poor construction" thread. It is already boxed by economic principles and have no way to run for long.
https://www.statista.com/chart/20858/top-10-countries-by-share-of-global-manufacturing-output/

Patrick says

Those factories lose viability as they rust and the knowledge of how to run them is lost.

Point is: factories can be build anywhere and anywhere you build them they can easily become stranded assets.

Even before Trump, lots of manufacturing was being relocated back to the US. That trend will accelerate as the globalist trade system breaks down. It is breaking down because the US is no longer maintaining it.

How is China going to import its food and bauxite and chromium from Africa, oil from the ME when it has shit for naval force projection capability in the PG and IO or even the Straits of Mallacca and etc? Like Japan, all of that was guaranteed by the US Navy. It was part of the deal to get China to stay split with the Soviet Union.

Ditto with regards to Chinese exports.

And don't bring up the ever growing Chinese navy. It takes DECADES to build up a decent blue water navy. Expertise is more valuable than hardware. The Soviets nor Germans -- which had those decades -- never were able to pull that off. The Japanese came closer than either of them. And PLAN is no Imperial Navy of Japan. Not by a long shot.

But mostly, because they will be starved of capital. That's what demographic implosions do. Nasty shit.

Patrick says

China wants to be a manufacturing-based superpower, not a financialized one (like the US).

PRC is massively financialized. Far more than the US is.

80% of its production firms are state owned and up to their gills in debt that can never be paid off. Instead, it is 'recycled' by the PBOC. The firms concentrate on cash flow, not profit.

Sound familiar? Circa Japanese keiretsu and MITI in the 1980s-90s. Who here has ever heard the acronym MITI since the late 90s? Anyway? Used to be a household term in most newspapers back then. Hell, I am not sure it even exits still.

@HunterTits
China is fraud economy. They think "poor disposable stuff" and rebuilding it again and again is economic growth.
Unfortunately corrupts corporates like walmart etc. bought into this notion as it is good for retail.
Strange part is that so called "green economy" guys couldn't muster anything against this extremely polluting exercise.

This article explains it well:
https://chinaeconomicreview.com/china-housing-shoddy-building-quality-energy-incentives-gdp/
To Qiao Runling, deputy director at China’s top planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission, the short lifespan doesn’t simply indicate how long the housing is livable in but how long developers wait to tear down one project in order to raise a more expensive one

“Chinese like to demolish buildings just so they can build new ones,” Qiao said, speaking at a real estate investment forum in Shanghai last week.
he buildings aren’t torn down because they’re dangerous but rather because local officials want to drive the economy with new construction projects. It’s “political willingness” that often cuts short the life of many otherwise healthy buildings, Qiao said, “The local government wants to stimulate GDP growth and they choose the crudest way to do this: Demolition then rebuilding.”

The practice isn’t just a waste of valuable real estate, it’s a major polluter and consumer of energy. The energy needed to fuel China’s construction industry accounts for about one-third of the country’s total energy consumption, Qiao said. Where energy consumption is high, so is pollution. The unceasing cycle of building and demolition adds to China’s already dire environmental conditions. On top of that, China has little capacity to reuse construction waste, unlike countries such as Japan. Some reports say that construction refuse has literally encircled cities like Hangzhou.

HunterTits says

It takes DECADES to build up a decent blue water navy.

I'm afraid it will also take decades for the US to recover its lost manufacturing ability, and that if and only if there is a determined push to bring back manufacturing here, as Trump advocates.

Now that the oligarchy has subverted democracy to get Trump out of office, I don't see that happening any time soon.

In the meantime, China has great power over us to cut off supplies of finished goods and parts.

Patrick says

HunterTits says

It takes DECADES to build up a decent blue water navy.

I'm afraid it will also take decades for the US to recover its lost manufacturing ability, and that if and only if there is a determined push to bring back manufacturing here, as Trump advocates.

Now that the oligarchy has subverted democracy to get Trump out of office, I don't see that happening any time soon.

In the meantime, China has great power over us to cut off supplies of finished goods and parts.

I don't agree. Most of what we import from China we don't really need.
It was just greed of walmart types to push on us for their retail dollars.
If it had any market power, They would be raising prices crazy not squeezing their workers even when struggling to find few and high attrition.
(During COVID time they made killing sending sanitizing products, But US quickly ramped up... thats the time they had market power for small time window)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/183399/walmarts-net-sales-worldwide-since-2006/

farmer2021 says

I don't agree. Most of what we import from China we don't really need.

Remember during the beginning of the pandemic when there were shortages of antibiotics made only in China, and the US couldn't make them because the raw materials also come only from China?

I remember that.

Patrick says

farmer2021 says

I don't agree. Most of what we import from China we don't really need.

Remember during the beginning of the pandemic when there were shortages of antibiotics made only in China, and the US couldn't make them because the raw materials also come only from China?

I remember that.

This does happen in trading partners. It is exception not rule.
China's 5G ambitions are also biting dust due to lack of semiconductors.(They are spending like trillion $ to gain self sufficiency).

US can produce antibiotics too. The issue is not "trade" but loyalty of US govt.. If US govt folks have made treason their main business, Nothing can work.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02884-3
Why big pharma has abandoned antibiotics
A lack of financial incentive has meant large pharmaceutical companies have left the market

farmer2021 says

US can produce antibiotics too.

The question is how quickly and at what cost.

I think it would take years to recover US antibiotic manufacturing ability.

Take the PRC off of SWIFT.

Terms of restoration of interbank payment functionality:

Everyone in the PRC guaranteed weapons and a 20 year supply of ammo, even if they have to fire 10 rounds a minute, three shifts a day.

Multiparty elections.

Unions.

Otherwise, no buy slave-made shit.

Patrick says

farmer2021 says

US can produce antibiotics too.

The question is how quickly and at what cost.

I think it would take years to recover US antibiotic manufacturing ability.

Two solutions:
1) subsidy
2) Increase price.
... otherwise import. It is just not profitable.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/oneill-amr-3
We Need Antibiotics. They’re Not Profitable To Make. Who Pays?

Patrick says

I'm afraid it will also take decades for the US to recover its lost manufacturing ability

Nope. Just capital investment. If you can set up factories in a swamp eventually called 'Shenzhen' or in Hanoi, you can set them up anywhere.

Patrick says

In the meantime, China has great power over us to cut off supplies of finished goods and parts.

They need us more than we need them.

SumatraBosch says

Take the PRC off of SWIFT.

So this means to isolate their banking system, right?

Yes.

Let them pay their bills with rocks and Ramen.

Technically that should be "rocks and lo-mein".

"Ramen" is just the bad Japanese pronunciation of the Chinese word lo-mein.

But then it wouldn't alliterate. Unless you're Japanese.

Look at hard to fake parameters of economy to estimate How much is China lying on size of economy.

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/ChenEtAl_web.pdf
A Forensic Examination of China’s National Accounts

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/china-quietly-sets-new-buy-chinese-targets-state-companies-us-sources-2021-08-02/

China quietly sets new 'buy Chinese' targets for state companies

WASHINGTON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - China's government quietly issued new procurement guidelines in May that require up to 100% local content on hundreds of items including X-ray machines and magnetic resonance imaging equipment, erecting fresh barriers for foreign suppliers, three U.S.-based sources told Reuters.

Patrick says

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/china-quietly-sets-new-buy-chinese-targets-state-companies-us-sources-2021-08-02/

China quietly sets new 'buy Chinese' targets for state companies

WASHINGTON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - China's government quietly issued new procurement guidelines in May that require up to 100% local content on hundreds of items including X-ray machines and magnetic resonance imaging equipment, erecting fresh barriers for foreign suppliers, three U.S.-based sources told Reuters.

Biden will pretend nothing happened.

Patrick says

The Chinese are pretty smart. That's why they got all the factories. That's what gives them power over America now.

That and all the politicians they own.

Patrick says

But then it wouldn't alliterate. Unless you're Japanese.

That's racist!