patrick.net

The headline number made Biden jump for joy, particularly after ADP did its frequently-abysmal job.

But as those of you who follow me know, I've tracked this report with my own private data set for more than 20 years. I noted what looked like a dislocation on Stocks-n-Jocks this morning and want to bring it to broad attention. It may not be what it appears; it's too early to be sure. But if it is the CDC and others are actively hiding something very profound, nasty, and worse than Covid-19's toll last year.

The red highlight is the running 12 month difference between the column the arrow points to. This is the non-institutionalized civilian population, defined as all persons 16 or older who are not in prison or otherwise in an institution (e.g. mental hospital.) It has historically run around 2 million a year for the last couple decades, with some notable divergences (there was a very large spike upward in the early 2000s, for example.)

Note that to increase or decrease this rate adults have to screw about 17 years earlier, since it takes 9 months for the bun in said oven to emerge and then 16 more years before said child is counted. The only other way is for a large number of people to enter or leave institutional life (e.g. being imprison) or...... for them to die.

There was a lull in 2019 which, if you think about it, makes sense. What was going on in 2002-03? A nasty recession, right? Do you bring kids into the world when that happens? Not as many. Ok, that's explained. Likewise, there was a dip in 2017 associated with the 2000 Nasdaq crash. Ditto. And so on.

But what was going on economically in 2004/05? We were in the middle of a very strong economic recovery, were we not? Indeed, unemployment had just gone under 6% and was falling, heading to under 5%. The employment:population ratio was stable to improving and we were posting up huge employment gain numbers -- figures from 1.3 million a month to over 3 million. It was the best of times; the market was roaring, employment was strong and people were having sex.

This trend started in January and, at this point, has destroyed fully half of the workforce expansion -- one million working-age Americans -- thus far.

I'll be watching this.... closely