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Housing Crash | Incoming


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2021 Aug 27, 11:25am   7,875 views  102 comments

by joshuatrio   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

From: http://housingbubble.blog/?p=5085

You Chose To Buy A Home That You Can’t Afford

August 26, 2021Ben JonesUncategorized133 Comments

A report from the Atlanta Journal Consitution in Georgia. “The metro Atlanta housing market clicked into balance in July: Supply met demand and home prices stopped their rapid rise. About 12,300 homes were listed for sale last month. In the city of Atlanta, home prices are up 20% from a year ago, according to Bill Adams, president of Adams Realtors. But the change in price ranges from a decline of 3% in Candler Park to a leap of 36% in Inman Park, he said. The trend of higher prices is going to continue because there won’t be a large increase in homes listed for sale, he predicted.”

From Market Watch. “‘Although housing is expected to remain sturdy for some time, several key gauges are cooling as the pandemic-induced buying frenzy eases and elevated prices cut into affordability, particularly for first-time homebuyers,’ Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, an economist with BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a research note.”

The Chicago Tribune on Illinois. “Seneca Oaddams, 44, bought his two-flat in Roseland for $132,000 a little over two years ago. The property, which he purchased as an investment and rental property, now has an estimated worth of $250,000, according to Redfin. But having endured 17 months of the pandemic, Oaddams says it’s hard to hold on to the building. His tenant, whose rent covers approximately half of Oaddams’ monthly mortgage, lost her job at the start of the pandemic and hasn’t been able to keep up her payments.”

“‘I’m actually hopeful for the future,’ Oaddams said. ‘I’m hopeful that it’s going to get better. … It needs to get better. Who doesn’t want to own property? Why not be able to help someone as well and lessen the load on your pocket with a building, so it’s a win-win for the renter and the tenant? The problem is when the rent can’t get paid.'”

The Norwich Bulletin in Connecticut. “Mark Kulos, president of the Norwich Property Owner’s Association and a landlord with 27 units, said while there are ways today for landlords to evict people, most won’t try because a misstep under the federal moratorium can lead to heavy fines. Kulos said this affects ‘mom and pop landlords,’ who have day jobs and have an operation of 50 units or smaller, as the landlord still has to pay for mortgage, taxes and upkeep without making a profit. ‘(The landlords) are working their other jobs to pay their bills, especially if the tenants aren’t paying,’ he said.”

From CBS DFW in Texas. “Clint Cash owns a handful of rental properties in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, some of whom have tenants impacted by the pandemic. Cash and other rental property owners believe the eviction moratorium that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention enacted last year has gone on for too long with an expanding job market making it easier for people to find work. Cash says he’s sympathetic to those who still can’t pay their bills, but he says the government has put landlords in a position where they can’t either.”

“‘There’s not enough profit in it for these mom and pops to continue and pay their own bills and so they will lose their houses and those houses will thus go to foreclosure,’ he said.”

The Steamboat Pilot in Colorado. “Before casting their votes, members listened to nearly two hours of public comment from dozens of residents, most of whom were short-term rental owners, property managers or property owners who spoke in favor of short-term rentals. Michelle Williams bought her home on Bear Creek Drive in 2018, with a plan to retire in the home one day. Williams said she and her family spent four months in the home in 2020 and supported the city’s economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

“To supplement the cost of owning the home until she can retire in it, Williams rents her home out to nightly renters when she is not living in it. ‘We spent an absurd amount of money downtown, as we dined out almost every night,’ Williams said. ‘We’re really good people, and we want to do the right thing and abide by rules and regulations set forth.'”

“Debby Spiker, a resident on Meadow Wood Court, said she understands many property owners need to cater to short-term renters to help pay for their homes, but that choice infringes on her quality of life. ‘I’m hearing a lot of self interest and financial ‘woe is me,’ Spiker said. ‘It’s not my fault that you chose to buy a home that you can’t afford without renting it out to carry the cost.'”

“Spiker said nightly renters have brought ‘destruction’ into her neighborhood — as nightly renters are often loud, do not pick up trash and may cause other issues in neighborhoods traditionally home to full-time families and working residents. ‘I get you want to monetize your home, but it affects me personally,’ Spiker said.”

The New York Post on California. “There is really nothing Kate Beckinsale can’t do, including sell her longtime Los Angeles home after only weeks on the market. The Brentwood property, which was listed on Aug. 2 for $3.995 million, is already in contract after it found a buyer on Aug. 20, The Post has learned. The English-born actress has enjoyed a 15-year run in the four-bedroom, five-bathroom pad she purchased for $3.595 million in 2006.”

“But this also means that she won’t be leaving with that much of a profit, considering renovation projects over the years and broker fees.”

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1   joshuatrio   2021 Aug 27, 11:26am  

In one freaking month!!!

"The metro Atlanta housing market clicked into balance in July: Supply met demand and home prices stopped their rapid rise. About 12,300 homes were listed for sale last month. "

That's insane, and I've seen the flux in listings just driving around.

I think we've reached peak folks and we're gonna see this turn down.
2   Eric Holder   2021 Aug 27, 11:31am  

Nooooooo! My 3 mil!!!!!
3   Patrick   2021 Aug 27, 11:31am  

The for-sale signs with their little box for the house flyers make a great place to distribute "Recall Newsom" flyers. Just sayin.
4   Booger   2021 Aug 27, 2:04pm  

joshuatrio says
In one freaking month!!!

"The metro Atlanta housing market clicked into balance in July: Supply met demand and home prices stopped their rapid rise. About 12,300 homes were listed for sale last month. "

That's insane, and I've seen the flux in listings just driving around.

I think we've reached peak folks and we're gonna see this turn down.


That and it's gotten really expensive to live there, and the place is nothing special.
5   joshuatrio   2021 Aug 27, 2:07pm  

Booger says
joshuatrio says
In one freaking month!!!

"The metro Atlanta housing market clicked into balance in July: Supply met demand and home prices stopped their rapid rise. About 12,300 homes were listed for sale last month. "

That's insane, and I've seen the flux in listings just driving around.

I think we've reached peak folks and we're gonna see this turn down.


That and it's gotten really expensive to live there, and the place is nothing special.


Totally agree.

However, the increase in inventory is about nationwide and up between 20-30% from June to July which is HUGE.

We've been actively looking for land and are seeing cuts in pricing in most areas we look.
6   WookieMan   2021 Aug 27, 2:54pm  

joshuatrio says
Booger says
joshuatrio says
In one freaking month!!!

"The metro Atlanta housing market clicked into balance in July: Supply met demand and home prices stopped their rapid rise. About 12,300 homes were listed for sale last month. "

That's insane, and I've seen the flux in listings just driving around.

I think we've reached peak folks and we're gonna see this turn down.


That and it's gotten really expensive to live there, and the place is nothing special.


Totally agree.

However, the increase in inventory is about nationwide and up between 20-30% from June to July which is HUGE.

We've been actively looking for land and are seeing cuts in pricing in most areas we look.

The money is already burned. Without more printing prices on a lot of things will start falling. Cars were the most insane thing. 1 of 3 cars based on plates I see in IL were purchases in the last year based on the plate lettering and numbering. Used or new, doesn't much matter. Everyone bought a bunch of shit, added debt, didn't pay anything down with all their stimulus money. That ends well.... said no one.
7   exfatguy   2021 Aug 27, 2:55pm  

Yeah, but for as much as we realize there's stupid money being thrown at housing, there's plenty more people with stupid money out there than those waiting for smart prices. We can't win.
8   porkchopXpress   2021 Aug 27, 4:49pm  

Fuck! I was really hoping to be priced out forever.
9   Blue   2021 Aug 27, 5:52pm  

One should be more concerned about gov money creation that breaks fundamental pricing models based on demand and supply. In the long run, I wouldn't bet against inflation. All corrupt governments rob middle class savers. That is sad.
10   Ceffer   2021 Aug 27, 6:01pm  

My California crap shacks are made of cheap bronze now instead of gold!
11   BayArea   2021 Aug 28, 3:27am  

HunterTits says
If I got a blowjob for every time I saw a thread on the internet say 'Housing crash incoming", my brain would be so fried from endorphin overload that I'd be more of a vegetable than Hunter Biden is during this cocaine binges.


100% true.

These “sky is about to fall” RE threads are an assembly of have-nots coming together to cheer each-other on. Once the chants end, reality sets in.
12   Ceffer   2021 Aug 28, 6:46am  

You only get the blowjobs at closing with predatory female RE agents. That keeps them expensive, survivable and outside of the Caligulan palace of excess realm.
13   gabbar   2021 Aug 28, 6:47am  

I hope there will be a housing crisis, I need to buy a property.
14   Booger   2021 Aug 28, 7:30am  

Zillow listing houses for less than what they paid for them! Watch staring around the 4 minute mark! LOL!!!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rKLfZ3uDqJw
15   clambo   2021 Aug 28, 8:09am  

I don’t know what difference it will make but house prices probably won’t fall by very much.
If you thought your house was an “investment” you’ll be disappointed anyway.
Pretty soon:
1. Thousands of deadbeats will be evicted
2. Thousands of landlords will sell their “investments”

People who want to own a place sometimes like to hear agreement from a (uneducated) realtor.

If you want chicks to like you for no money, get a house.
If you don’t buy a house, chicks will still like you for money.
Can you guess which is cheaper?😈
16   Onvacation   2021 Aug 28, 8:09am  

I looked at Zillow for the first time in a long time last night and there were quite a few price cuts. $50,000 off on a 2br 2ba condo in Benicia. Now they want $550,000.
17   BayArea   2021 Aug 28, 8:21am  

Onvacation says
I looked at Zillow for the first time in a long time last night and there were quite a few price cuts. $50,000 off on a 2br 2ba condo in Benicia. Now they want $550,000.


No, there’s no price cuts unless the house was overpriced to start.

As long as interest rates are at historic lows, Bay Area real estate will continue to sizzle.

Housing market is at the mercy of interest rates. I don’t see any other trigger mechanism today.
18   Blue   2021 Aug 28, 8:30am  

gabbar says
I hope there will be a housing crisis, I need to buy a property.

I know nothing if there is a sizable crash on the way.
But never get fooled by sides. In the long run all are same they create massive inflation. I'd suggest go a bit far away places to find properties not bad to live.
19   Ceffer   2021 Aug 28, 8:32am  

Hmm. Just perusing Santa Cruz around Live Oak, very mixed, from outrageous prices with a few soft spots compared to recent history. Could the bubble be popping? Still pretty low inventory.
20   Blue   2021 Aug 28, 8:53am  

Are you in bay area, look at either far south of Gilroy or east like Manteca, Stockton etc. Brand new house are available starting from 500k. I know quite a few folks moved to TX, those prices are not much different now except a little bigger houses. If tech co.s are doing well and the combination of stock options, 1978 prop 13 sh*t, gov money creation sh*t won't bring prices down at least in the near future.
21   Booger   2021 Aug 28, 9:08am  

Year over year rent increases of 20-25% in places might be the biggest story right now:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OI_g85Dn5lk
23   Ceffer   2021 Aug 28, 9:50am  

"Abolition of rent moratorium by SCOTUS causes massive return to work force." No more sucking down Colt 45 while watching Oprah and rocking the cradle.
24   joshuatrio   2021 Sep 22, 4:59am  

http://housingbubble.blog/?p=5172

A report from the Coeur d’Alene Press in Idaho. “Kristen Johnson, Coeur d’Alene Association of Realtors president said there aren’t as many competitive offers on homes as there were earlier this year, so the market is seeing some price reductions. It’s important to price accordingly, based on comparable properties, to avoid making price adjustments or watching a home sit on the market for an extended period, Johnson said. ‘Most homebuyers have seen dozens of properties and can recognize one that’s overpriced,’ Johnson said.”

The Los Angeles Times. “Southern California home prices were essentially flat in August from the previous month, as the market cools slightly from its torrid pace earlier this year. ‘Where maybe we’d see 10 to 15 offers [before], now we see two to five,’ said Jennifer Eckert, a Los Angeles real estate agent.”

“Real estate agents say some home buyers have called it quits after engaging in bidding wars they never could win. And many analysts predicted home price gains would moderate soon, because incomes can’t support continued price appreciation at the 20% levels seen earlier this year.”

From People on California. “Jeff Lewis has relisted his L.A. home with a price cut of $500,000 in an effort to sell it before he expands his family. ‘So I reduced my house half a million dollars so I can get out of here,’ the Bravo star said during the episode. ‘I talked to [realtor] Matt Altman about it. I’m not going to sit here and hang on to a little bit of money when I really need to get it moving.'”

The Epoch Times. “Pacaso offers ‘the modern way to buy and own a second home.’ After identifying a home to purchase, Pacaso sets up an LLC to acquire the property, then sells eight equal shares of it to interested buyers. Each share ranges from $250,000 to $1,000,000 and above, plus monthly service fees. ‘We believe they’re nothing more than a glorified timeshare. If I were a real estate agent, I would tell people this is a terrible investment,’ said Sonoma homeowner Nancy Gardner. ‘They’re paying a huge amount of money for an eighth share of a home, and you don’t even know who else will be living there.'”

The Evening Standard. “It is taking longer to sell a home in London than anywhere else in the UK, as the capital’s housing market stays ‘sluggish.’ There are early signs that the supply-demand imbalance maybe settling across the UK. The number of new listings in the first two weeks of September, on average across the country, was 14 per cent higher than the last two weeks of August. ‘As we enter the busy autumn period, there are early signs of more properties coming to market, which may help to slowly rebuild buyer choice,’ says Tim Bannister of Rightmove.”
25   joshuatrio   2021 Sep 27, 8:47am  

Been watching several Florida markets. Tons of homes with 25-50k price cuts and no takers.

Peak was June/July.

I think homes prices right will sell (as usual), but the bubble is popping (again).
26   Waitup   2021 Sep 27, 8:51am  

The fact is that if the fed had not stepped in and bailed out the banks, we would see an honest market today. All of you who have been waiting and renting only have your government to blame. Your govt is your enemy number one and will chose the banks/corporations over your tiny asses any day of the week.
27   mell   2021 Sep 27, 8:53am  

joshuatrio says
The Epoch Times. “Pacaso offers ‘the modern way to buy and own a second home.’ After identifying a home to purchase, Pacaso sets up an LLC to acquire the property, then sells eight equal shares of it to interested buyers. Each share ranges from $250,000 to $1,000,000 and above, plus monthly service fees. ‘We believe they’re nothing more than a glorified timeshare. If I were a real estate agent, I would tell people this is a terrible investment,’ said Sonoma homeowner Nancy Gardner. ‘They’re paying a huge amount of money for an eighth share of a home, and you don’t even know who else will be living there.'”


Buying any shack as a rental "investment" in wine country right now is a bad idea for two reasons:

1) All kinds of regulations making short term rentals close to impossible
2) People looking for rent typically work in the hospitality industry and don't have much money to spend on rent, so the rent vs buy ratio favors renting big time. You will not even get close to covering mortgage costs.

That being said, there are some token price cuts on houses for sale, but overall the pricing trend is still up though it has slowed down considerably and some overpriced shacks that were bought during the plandemic frenzy may not have appreciated.
28   richwicks   2021 Sep 27, 8:58am  

Waitup says
The fact is that if the fed had not stepped in and bailed out the banks, we would see an honest market today. All of you who have been waiting and renting only have your government to blame. Your govt is your enemy number one and will chose the banks/corporations over your tiny asses any day of the week.


Well, it's pretty obvious they intend to make the next generation of paupers. You're allowing the government to fuck your kids, and your grandkids, but you get a couple of nice vacations out of the deal though, so it's worth it.
29   Bitcoin   2021 Sep 28, 11:05am  

>1M homes in my community sell like hot cakes. Super low inventory, super low rates. What else is new? Market crash? Nope.
30   Vernburn   2021 Sep 28, 11:13am  

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

So we're gonna do this again are we? Just like this board calling a crash in 2009?
31   GreaterNYCDude   2021 Sep 28, 1:56pm  

Vernburn says
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

So we're gonna do this again are we? Just like this board calling a crash in 2009?


Call it as I see it. We have six months left before it all comes crashing down (again). Mabey less. At least this time I'm not in the market for a house. It was crazy times back then. We have a new generation of buyers who no not what we (Gen X) went through trying to find their first house. They will learn...what goes up comes down eventually.

Sure we don't have NINJA loans being as prevalent, but there is no way this is sustainable unless wages go up, and that's not likely. Real wages haven't increased in my lifetime, why start now?

Give them bread and circus (or fear and loathing) and the masses will be mollified.

Short housing. Short banks. Then sit back, grab the popcorn and watch the movie.
32   Booger   2021 Sep 28, 2:21pm  

GreaterNYCDude says
We have six months left before it all comes crashing down (again). Maybe less.


It's going to take more than 6 months. Inventory for sale is still really low and will take months to build to even get to a balanced market level.
33   AmericanKulak   2021 Sep 28, 7:43pm  

It's gonna take a bit, but I think Central Florida has peaked.

Looking at used homes that went for $40/sq ft, maybe $100k 6 years ago, now going for $150/sq ft.
34   joshuatrio   2021 Sep 29, 4:57am  

MisdemeanorRebellionNoCoupForYou says
It's gonna take a bit, but I think Central Florida has peaked.

Looking at used homes that went for $40/sq ft, maybe $100k 6 years ago, now going for $150/sq ft.


Agree. We've been looking only in Florida and I'm seeing tons of price cuts in the Atlantic coastal areas now. Back in July, it was whatever number the seller could dream of. Now stuff is sitting.
35   zzyzzx   2021 Sep 29, 5:29am  

joshuatrio says
I'm seeing tons of price cuts in the Atlantic coastal areas now.


Links please, because I haven't see it yet. Looking in the area around St Johns and Flagler counties.
36   joshuatrio   2021 Sep 29, 6:14am  

zzyzzx says
joshuatrio says
I'm seeing tons of price cuts in the Atlantic coastal areas now.


Links please, because I haven't see it yet. Looking in the area around St Johns and Flagler counties.


Just search on Zillow and realtor.com. Scroll through the listings and you'll see it.
37   RC2006   2021 Sep 29, 6:22am  

I see it cooling in idaho, more listings less bidding wars but prices are still to high. Last year was rediculous.
38   BayArea   2021 Sep 29, 6:37am  

Oh no child, aignt no housing crash coming round here
39   joshuatrio   2021 Sep 29, 6:50am  

BayArea says
Oh no child, aignt no housing crash coming round here


They said that last time.
40   porkchopXpress   2021 Sep 29, 6:54am  

It will not happen until it does.

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