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These are the most overvalued housing markets in the U.S.


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2021 Aug 30, 6:53am   524 views  15 comments

by RWSGFY   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

They say everything’s bigger in Texas, but when it comes to overvalued homes, the Lone Star State doesn’t hold a candle to Idaho.
A new survey from Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University looks at the nation’s most overvalued homes, with Boise City, Idaho, topping the list. Homes in the Gem State sell for a stunning 80.64% premium, based on a history of past pricing.

The work-from-home trend is largely responsible for that. As people moved out of big markets during the pandemic, they looked for less dense areas that still offered attractive amenities. In addition to Idaho, Utah has been an especially popular destination for buyers, the study found.
Of the 100 cities looked at in the study, 95 showed some level of overvalue. The rapid price appreciation should serve as a warning to buyers, say the study’s authors. If you plan to move soon, you could find yourself later selling property at a loss.
In the Top 10 markets, potential buyers might want to consider renting and reinvesting money that they otherwise would have put into homeownership,” said Ken Johnson, a real estate economist and associate dean in FAU’s College of Business. “Renting and reinvesting has been shown to often outperform ownership in terms of wealth creation.”
Here’s a look at the 10 most overvalued markets and the premium buyers are currently paying:

Boise City, Idaho – 80.64%
Austin, Texas – 50.72%
Ogden, Utah – 49.70%
Provo, Utah – 46.16%
Detroit, Mich. – 45.57%
Spokane, Wash. – 45.21%
Salt Lake City, Utah – 42.41%
Phoenix, Ariz. – 42.31%
Las Vegas, Nev. – 41.88%
Stockton, Calif. – 38.50%

There are still some bargains out there. In Virginia Beach, homes are selling for a 2.46% discount. And you can get a home in Honolulu at a rate nearly 5% below where it should be valued.



https://apple.news/AS_47HHY2STqfLHWPkX1W8Q

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1   RWSGFY   2021 Aug 30, 6:55am  

When Stockton shows up on the list of the most overvalued housing markets it's a sign the shit is about to hit the fan.
2   GNL   2021 Aug 30, 6:55am  

Who determines what real estate "should be" valued at?
3   WookieMan   2021 Aug 30, 7:13am  

Surprised Bozeman or Missoula, MT aren't on there. There's buildable land as far as the eye can see on the edges of these towns, but average subdivision homes are going for $400-500k. It makes zero sense. Totally overpriced in my mind. I think builders have gotten smarter since the housing crash and aren't putting too much inventory out there. Then there's Big Sky where you start getting into 8 figure homes. Beautiful area, but you're 1 hour minimum from even getting to a good outdoor activity.

Winter 2019 I went out there and they had gotten about 200" in the valley. It was like that ice trucker show. Why in the hell would someone pay $500k for a 3/2.1 cardboard box house and live in that shit? I was there in early June of 2001. 2' of snow in the valley a day before we got there. Melted off quick, but June? Half a million? I'm not okay with 2-3 months of outside weather. 2-3 months of real winter is just enough for me.
4   clambo   2021 Aug 30, 7:26am  

I’m confused over the meaning of “premium” in this context.

I would look at the price per square foot and a place like Capitola California is expensive, I saw one for $1500/square foot for example.
5   SunnyvaleCA   2021 Aug 30, 11:54am  

clambo says
I’m confused over the meaning of “premium” in this context.

Right from online dictionary: "a sum added to an ordinary price or charge." So, this would be the extra amount over what the article's writer thinks is appropriate.

The article is completely missing how the author decided what was appropriate, but I'd suggest it has to do with the historical values for that area as well as the job prospects in that area.
6   Eric Holder   2021 Aug 30, 11:56am  

SunnyvaleCA says
The article is completely missing how the author decided what was appropriate


The article contains a link to the methodology used: https://business.fau.edu/departments/finance/real-estate-initiative/housing-market-ranking/ranking-methodology/
7   SunnyvaleCA   2021 Aug 30, 12:11pm  

clambo says
I would look at the price per square foot and a place like Capitola California is expensive, I saw one for $1500/square foot for example.

Over here in silicon valley, the "price per square foot" is a useless metric, since almost all the cost ("value") is in the location. The "value" of my shack is probably $500k, but that's only based on the cost of building a new home while adhering to all of California's building restrictions. The other $1.5MM in "value" is based on nothing more than "walking distance to Apple."

As for Capitola, part of that "value" is based on ease of car commute to the location where the Apple / Facebook / Google / Etc private bus service picks you up to take you to work.
8   Eric Holder   2021 Aug 30, 12:19pm  

SunnyvaleCA says
clambo says
I would look at the price per square foot and a place like Capitola California is expensive, I saw one for $1500/square foot for example.

Over here in silicon valley, the "price per square foot" is a useless metric, since almost all the cost ("value") is in the location. The "value" of my shack is probably $500k, but that's only based on the cost of building a new home while adhering to all of California's building restrictions. The other $1.5MM in "value" is based on nothing more than "walking distance to Apple."

As for Capitola, part of that "value" is based on ease of car commute to the location where the Apple / Facebook / Google / Etc private bus service picks you up to take you to work.


And the ocean.
9   Shaman   2021 Aug 30, 2:15pm  

Boise is just close enough to California that it’s within escape velocity and possible commuter territory if you have to visit the office once a month. Meanwhile it’s in a red state with low taxes and way more space. The prices are being big up by Californians itching to relocate from the Golden Fishhook…I mean State. They don’t have time to build. They just want housing that isn’t in California.
10   Eric Holder   2021 Aug 30, 2:28pm  

Shaman says
Boise is just close enough to California that it’s within escape velocity and possible commuter territory if you have to visit the office once a month. Meanwhile it’s in a red state with low taxes and way more space. The prices are being big up by Californians itching to relocate from the Golden Fishhook…I mean State. They don’t have time to build. They just want housing that isn’t in California.


It would be fun to watch what happens once CA employers start slashing their compensation.
11   Patrick   2021 Aug 30, 10:52pm  

Eric Holder says
It would be fun to watch what happens once CA employers start slashing their compensation.





I think they already are, and that's part of Google and Facebook's motivation for mandatory jabs.

PhD's have the highest "vaccine hesitance" as they like to say. They do not want the jab because they know better.

So they are forced to work remotely if they want to keep their jobs, and voila, pay cuts of 25% for remote workers are appearing...
12   WillyWanker   2021 Aug 31, 5:15am  

Beginning in December 2010 I began buying apartment buildings and notes on buildings for 10K to 15K a door. I just finished selling off my portfolio for 100K to 150K per door. In a couple of properties, because each unit has its own address and utilities, I sold off at more than 200K a door. The money seemed to be just lying in the gutter when I first arrived in Vegas.

I have moved to Spain and am buying residency via the Golden Visa.

I have taken a big tax hit but I’ve rolled 10 years of purchasing and selling buildings and expected to pay at some point.

I’m watching and waiting for the fit to hit the shan. This is why I came to Patrick.net to begin with: this forum was a great resource for others who were waiting for the bubble to burst before the Great Recession.

Hope everyone is liquid and ready to take advantage of price corrections.
13   clambo   2021 Aug 31, 5:16am  

It’s true that house prices generally reflect wages nearby, or commuting distance to good wages.

What changed in Santa Cruz was the cement plant in Davenport closed, so the slow trucks are gone from Hwy 17.

Those trucks ruined the traffic flow, clogging up the highway and now it’s a much easier drive “over the hill” to the San Jose area.

My friend showed me a map of the places around Santa Cruz and Capitola with property taxes, it was amazing the ones with $45,000 or $50,000 tax.

Taxes were the reason why I didn’t want to stay. I have enough money, but fuck them.
At the the gym I saw the smug sheriff deputies, firemen, cops, all had nice cars and fantastic pensions.
Outside I saw the illegals and their kids, particularly in the emergency room.
Then the countless bums bothering me.
I thought “I didn’t bust my balls to pay these fuckers any of my money.”
14   KgK one   2021 Aug 31, 5:39am  

"in December 2010 I began buying apartment buildings and notes on buildings for 10K to 15K a door. "

What is buying notes on buildings ? After correction I might get into it. ? I have a 3 unit rental, trying to buy more but prices r high.
15   WillyWanker   2021 Aug 31, 5:53am  

KgK one says
"in December 2010 I began buying apartment buildings and notes on buildings for 10K to 15K a door. "

What is buying notes on buildings ? After correction I might get into it. ? I have a 3 unit rental, trying to buy more but prices r high.


At the time, 2010-2012 I bought the outstanding notes that were in default directly from the banks. It was then my job to foreclose, repossess and then actually get my own people in to manage and collect rents. This could involve law enforcement and a management company to change locks and move out the existing management of a building. There were several properties where previous owners had walked away and managers were taking rent payments but not paying for any services.

When the streets run red with blood: Buy. Even if the blood is your own.

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