patrick.net

That Mitt! What a gamester!

I don't think this is a real invasion. It is just exploding a lot of weapons inventories so that the greenhouse gases can't threaten other parts of the world. Putin is saving the environment.

Here’s a different take on the situation:
1)The Nordstream 1 pipeline provides Europe with 40% of its energy needs currently. This has resulted in wealth and prosperity for Russia and reasonably priced gas for EU.
2)Russians have been building Nordstream 2 pipeline. It just finished a few months ago and has been in the testing/inspection phase before launching. It would bring the EU to 80% energy provided by Russia.
3)The Russians have invested enormous capital into the second pipeline which goes under the Baltic Sea.
4)Biden approved the second pipeline with a caveat that if the Russians invaded Ukraine even a little, approval would be cancelled. Germany signed this treaty.
5) Putin declared two new independent states which haven’t been governed by Ukraine in eight years, and in response, Biden invoked the treaty to cancel the Nordstream 2.
6) This development is catastrophic for Russian interests, and can’t be tolerated. They felt they had nothing to lose and might as well invade for real, and use whatever gains were made for pressuring the EU into more favorable terms including opening that Nordstream 2 pipeline.

So here we are. As usual, the conflict is over energy and oil. And also influence over the EU. Clearly the USA wants to paint Russia as an antagonist and future foil for military adventurism, refusing all previous overtures of friendship from the Russians. And as such, the USA can’t afford to have the EU shackled by energy obligations in the 80% range to a world power we wish to combat. The EU wouldn’t help us with our next little conflict to “mitigate Russian influence” or whatever, because Russia would have them over a barrel with respect to energy.

So it’s all about oil and money and power games. As usual.

Hitler reacts to Russia invading Ukraine - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRYlA5-ARTY&source=patrick.net

This has shit to do with US, with the problems in the US, with anything that affects anyone on patnet. The only thing I care about, is US stays the fuck out.

Bd6r says

Result for us will be a lot of inflation, oil above only 100 if we are lucky, expansion of State powers in an orgasmic union of neocons and lefties, stock market crash, and drop in life quality. You did it, Joe!

There's already historic inflation, has been since 2008. But sure, let's blame anyone but central banks.

We have more oil than almost every other country, again, doesn't have shit to do with our oil prices.

Expansion of powers UNLIKE the last two years?

If this is what causes the market crash, how the fuck did I call it two years ago? Again, has shit to do with that.

My quality of life has mostly improved, despite everything my own government does to try and fuck me. You think that's gonna change because of some countries 10,000 mile away?

NuttBoxer says

There's already historic inflation, has been since 2008. But sure, let's blame anyone but central banks.

We have more oil than almost every other country, again, doesn't have shit to do with our oil prices.

Expansion of powers UNLIKE the last two years?

If this is what causes the market crash, how the fuck did I call it two years ago? Again, has shit to do with that.

My quality of life has mostly improved, despite everything my own government does to try and fuck me. You think that's gonna change because of some countries 10,000 mile away?

I am not arguing that it is crappy now, but do you really think that Bidet will now allow expanding of oil production? And what will higher oil prices do to inflation?
Also, I am not arguing that civil liberties already are nearly removed, but now "they" have excuse to remove the rest. Hopefully I am wrong, but we may see "expansion of powers unlike we have seen before".
This mess is convenient for State power advocates (up to a point).

Shaman says

So here we are. As usual, the conflict is over energy and oil. And also influence over the EU. Clearly the USA wants to paint Russia as an antagonist and future foil for military adventurism, refusing all previous overtures of friendship from the Russians. And as such, the USA can’t afford to have the EU shackled by energy obligations in the 80% range to a world power we wish to combat. The EU wouldn’t help us with our next little conflict to “mitigate Russian influence” or whatever, because Russia would have them over a barrel with respect to energy.

My take:

Germany is fundamentally unwilling to develop nuclear power, and they are comfortable with Russian Gas imports. They made that decision a decade or so ago, and they're happy with it.

Germany runs the EU. What Germany wants, it gets.

Poland, Hungary, Romania probably don't like it, but the EU isn't a democracy, it's really run by the Council, which is controlled by a Franco-German center. Remember, the EU Parliament can't make laws or repeal laws, it only votes on bills written by the EU Council up or down. And the Council just keeps reintroducing bills the Parliament votes down until the Council gets a Parliament that votes yes.

So this will all blow over, but it's another slam to the Prestige of the US and the West in general. The smart move would have been to renegotiate some of the 1991-1994 crap with Russia and get some concessions from Russia in return,

Rather than being stubborn about it - but simultaneously be UNWILLING to really DO something about it. In other words, big talk small hat.

Nobody is going to risk New York or Paris for Donetsk or frankly, Riga. Putin knows it and called the bluff.

According to this glorious jorno Russia still hasn't invaded anything: https://twitter.com/i/status/1496821150776807424?source=patrick.net

If this were a real invasion, Putin would be bombing the shit out of them nonstop, he would have 100,000's of troops on the ground.

That's my personal take on it. But then again, if Putin is invading, and just doing it as a slow roll, and is lying out of his ass. I'm not sure what my action item is about that.
As I'm still trying to figure out what to do about the lies our Government has fed us the world going all the way back to the day G.W. Bush took office.

So fucking What? Ukraine should have thrown our CIA and State Department out of Ukraine when they were used as pawns by Biden, and for damn sure when they were used again to take out Trump. Let Ukraine be Ukraine.

Putin offers Ukraine peace if they surrender Hunter's crack stash:
https://t.me/gatewaypunditofficial/10890?source=patrick.net

KD weighs in: https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=245252&source=patrick.net

Bd6r says

Also, I am not arguing that civil liberties already are nearly removed, but now "they" have excuse to remove the rest.

The government can't do anything without consent of the public. Please realize that.

If, for example, they declare a war, and every soldier refused to deploy, there would be no war. I advocate for revolt in many things. What if nobody in your local municipality would accept wearing a mask? You just saw what non compliance does in Canada.

BTW: do you know why Turduh ended the emergency order? Their equivalent of the senate was going to end it regardless - he did it to save face. He's still a despot but doesn't have enough power to be an outward one. Changing minds is a powerful tool. Most people are easily convinced that "the majority thinks this" - DO THEY? Clinton had a 99% chance of winning in 2016 - did that work? Those polls were FALSE - not erroneous - they were lies.

Dholliday126 says

This is the best thing I’ve seen about this war!

Dholliday126 says

They are still ways away from the border.

Youtube has shut down all the livecams on Ukaine:

https://webcam.scs.com.ua/en/europe/ukraine/kiev/?source=patrick.net

This leads me to suspect "our side" isn't winning. We'll know in a few days, week at the most.

Here's one still up:

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/ukraine/kyiv-city-council/kyiv/panorama.html

Looks like business as normal. First causality in war is the truth...

richwicks says

Youtube has shut down all the livecams on Ukaine:

https://webcam.scs.com.ua/en/europe/ukraine/kiev/?source=patrick.net

This leads me to suspect "our side" isn't winning. We'll know in a few days, week at the most.

Martial law has been declared recently. You better believe military would shut down all these "live cams" pronto to control the flow of information.

richwicks says

Clinton had a 99% chance of winning in 2016 - did that work?

99% was in the minds of educated yet idiot class. Rust belt working class thought otherwise

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Putin is done. He is a dinosaur from another age. Time for all aged boomer world leaders to pack up their archaic world views and trot off into the sunset.

Nope. He's the foil of Realpolitik that will end our $30T debt in 30 year nightmare of Liberal Interventionism.

And maybe get the rest of NATO to carry at least some of the weight.

Booger says

Completely wrong.

Austria-Hungary wasn't part of Germany, it was Austro-Hungary, under the Hapsbergs, and was split from Hungary.

The Germanies, plural, were a hodgepodge of independent states until the mid 19th Century, just before the US Civil War. Like Brandenburg, Saxony, Bavaria... all independent princedoms of each other.

WW1 started by Serbian separatists trying to get out from under the domination of foreign Austrian Hapsberg Catholic Monarchs.

The House of Hapsberg and the Kaiser had an Alliance. Austria-Hungary was NOT part of Germany in any way shape or form and never had been until Hitler.

It sounds like "Muh poor Germany lost it's Austria because the Communist Funding Kaiser lost WW1 to the Evil Allies"

Also, Czechoslavakia was part of Austria, not Germany and never had been. In fact, Bohemia had been an Independent Kingdom most of it's existence.

The inferred point that massive Germany incorporating Austria and Czechoslovakia, etc. for centuries is completely and utterly false

Bd6r says

richwicks says

Clinton had a 99% chance of winning in 2016 - did that work?

99% was in the minds of educated yet idiot class. Rust belt working class thought otherwise

I'm pointing out that all polls pointed to Clinton winning, and as a result it was predicted that Clinton couldn't possibly lose.

I took the hard version of statistics in college as an engineer - mathematician stats. I did it in the summer, thinking "how hard can stats be?" It was the hardest class I ever took, and I forgot a lot of that (thankfully) but I remember one thing very clearly:

When two statistical samples with a margin of error don't overlap, that means at least one of the samples is erroneous in some way - either that or you just won the lottery 3 times in a row. That happened constantly in 2016. Happened in 2020 as well. There are no pollsters, they are all independent liars. The "results" are intended to drive the population, they don't reflect the actual population at all. They are just propaganda.

They came up with all sorts of excuses as to why they were wrong - they called landlines, people were afraid to tell them their true intentions, etc - these are all lies. In any given sample that sample would be equally afraid to tell them their true intentions, and the polls would closely align. They are entirely false.

When you have 80% / 20% +/-3% and 70% / 30% +/-3% - that means that out of 3 sigma points, it could be 77% / 23% and 73% / 27% - there's no overlap. That is statistically impossible. If it was legitimate polling, both companies would scramble to find their error or prove their competitor was in error. That never happened. They were lying. They were blatantly lying.

One the other hand, the Kiev RUS fled North to the Moscow woods when the Mongols attacked.

Tsars like Ivan the Awesome ("Terrible" has changed it's meaning over the centuries, like "Cynic" no longer means Hippy-like) enrolled the Christian Cossacks of what is today the Ukraine. Eventually, as the Mongol Hordes and successor states (Nogai, Crimean Horde) fell under the hooves of the Cossacks with the help of the Russian Streltsy, most of the Cossacks enlisted with the Tsar and so their territories became part of Russia. Some cossacks served the Poles.

By Tsarina Catherine (a German by ancestry, btw), Russia controlled most of Ukraine, which is majority Orthodox, uses Cyrillic, and whose Cossacks and Peasants have long been part of the Russian Empire.

Sometimes they revolted against the Poles, who have a reputation in as being "Evil, Conniving Greedy Petty Nobility Landlords" which is hilarious as Poles have the reputation of being "Dumb Workaholics" in the West.

In any case, Crimea and at least the Eastern parts of Ukraine have been Russian for centuries. Ukraine has only been an independent country for about 30 years. Even in the old days, it was either ruled by Mongol Hordes or before that, a collection of loose city-states based under the occasional Viking Rus ruling from Kiev.

In Galician Fantasy land, they believe they are all Nordics descended from Vikings, fighting for their liberty against their Slavic Polish and Russian inferiors who outnumber them. Nevermind in dress, appearance, and language, they're Slavs like their neighbors and have no more Nordic blood than their Polish or Russian neighbors, a trace. This made up myth came around the end of the 19th Century Romantic Nationalist period.

This isn't necessarily a justification for Jack shit. Just an explainer of "Ukranian History" and that while there is plenty of bullshit on all sides from "Muh Nordic Galicia" to "Muh United Orthodox Slavophiles", the latter have the far better claim IMHO.



The Golden Horde being the Mongols. As you can see "Ancient Ukraine" was actually several states, none of them named "Ukraine" and all of them outside the Steppe which makes up the current majority of Ukrainian turf, since it was impossible to govern Steppe areas free from the Mongols

"Knitting with Iron" in the mid 19th Century. As you can see, not only did Germany not exist, it certainly did not control Bohemia/Czech nor Austria.

AmericanKulak says

"Knitting with Iron" in the mid 19th Century. As you can see, not only did Germany not exist, it certainly did not control Bohemia/Czech nor Austria.

What "existed" as a people is written by the victors - it has no relation to reality.

The Palestinians never existed according to Israelis and it was a land without people for a people without a land. That's a total lie, but Israel beat the shit out of the Palestinians and will continue to do so. This lie will be accepted as fact in time.

richwicks says

What "existed" as a people is written by the victors - it has no relation to reality.

The Palestinians never existed according to Israelis and it was a land without people for a people without a land. That's a total lie, but Israel beat the shit out of the Palestinians and will continue to do so. This lie will be accepted as fact in time.

Okay, I'll bite on this sidebar for a second:
Yep, South Syrians who never had a state of their own, nor even a province under the Byzantines or Ottomans, and whom called themselves Arabs and rejected the term "Palestinian" until 1964 when th KGB created and urged "Plantation" (PLO) with it's leader "Aref" (Arafat, a KGB agent born in Cairo Egypt before the creation of Israel) and "Little Farm" (PFLP) to adopt it suddenly, will have their ethnic claim attempt will be shot down in time. Many other attempts at claiming ethnicities get shot down or fade with time. Nor do all ethnics have to be in one state. Unlike German States, which had distinctives esp. after the Treaty of Westpfalia such as being Lutheran or Catholic, the title of rulers and the organization of the state, there are no distinctives for "Palestinians" other than being subjects of Damascus, Cairo, Baghdad, etc. non-local rulers of similar ethnicity (Arab).


In any case, it's not relevant to this discussion, since the point was that Germany never existed until the late 19th Century as a Nation-State, and therefore could not have controlled Austria (a Nation or actually Empire for many centuries before the 19th) nor Czech/Bohemia as it was a collection of Principalities, Statelets, and city-states like Hannover or Bavaria or Papenburg.

Italy was in the same condition in the 19th Century. There were Italian States, but never an Italy until recently. The only time Italy was a nation state was back after the fall of the Roman Empire here and there during the time of Lombards. Milan, Papal States, Naples, Savoy, Venice/Venetia, but never an Italy until the 19th.

They fought each other with gusto and elan, esp. in Germany over Religion and in Italy over Pro- and Anti- HRE/Papal State influence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guelphs_and_Ghibellines

Eric Holder says

Putin is Bidet's puppet?

No, but maybe Biden traded away the Ukraine for this favor.

I thought putin was incompetent and their army a joke. At least everyone and their grandmother made fun of this guy. Now he's suddenly the world's most dangerous man. Public enemy number one. I feel so bad for the friends in the Ukraine, hope they will all be safe. What did people expect after antagonizing Russia for decades and installing a puppet govt for the US of A. They should have given up NATO membership and possibly negotiating some regional independence long ago in exchange for arming the rest of the Ukraine to the teeth with whatever they can get their hands on, incl. nukes. You know why nobody tried to invade Pakistan yet, or India (small border skirmishes with chyna aside). They should go to the table and negotiate now, still better than this war. Swap out govt with some Russia friendly puppets in exchange for keeping it neutral and guaranteeing safety for its citizens. This bloodshed is not worth it, it's not the citizens fault, they have no duty to defend their "leaders". I doubt putin wants to invade and fully control such a large country, it would open them up for too much guerilla warfare, a simple regime change may be enough. Putler may be a dicktator but he's certainly not stupid. We'll see, none of us knows enough about what's really going on. May God bless the Ukranian citizens. And Europe please grow a pair and invest in your armies, they're not there to protect high ranking politicians and the elite from the plebs as happened in commie states like canada. They are supposed to protect their citizens.

Summary

https://www.rt.com/russia/550529-ukraine-war-eight-years-zakharova/?source=patrick.net

Patrick says

No, but maybe Biden traded away the Ukraine for this favor.

Friendly reminder that HUNTER Biden is on tape telling a hooker that Russians are blackmailing him