patrick.net

If the kid sent in a few million, he'd get an answer.

Patrick says

Only close war watchers know that on Thursday, the Russians quietly obsoleted modern warfare and most of the West’s defensive arsenal. This changes everything. ...

The Russians deployed a paradigm-shattering, epoch-defining, game-changing wonder weapon that turned every modern military strategy textbook into a historic footnote. It was not the sort of “game-changing weapon” that like robotic parrots corporate media has serially invoked since the Proxy War started, duplicitously announcing every new delivery of decades-old NATO military technology to Ukraine.

No. This was something genuinely new. And, by definition, revolutionary.

Funny thing about all of this is that at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, there were many expert voices declaring that Russia was a backward country that was using armed with antiquated equipment from the old Soviet Union. These experts claimed that the USA & NATO had far superior, modern weaponry and once Ukraine was properly armed, it would be a game changer. For instance, recall all the hoopla about the Abrams Tank? How did that all work out? Answer: Not very good. The Abrams Tank proved to have all kinds of problems, such as being under armored for the modern battlefield. They also had the annoying problem of breaking down. The Russians easily eliminated the Abrams using drones. The Russians called them 'junk made out of tin.' The Ukrainians labeled them as 'death traps.'

Now, the hubris of the West has taken another punch in the face by the 'backward' Russians. Thinking that they were going up against a 58 year old Mike Tyson, they now have to realize that they are actually fighting the 25 year old version. Talk about a nightmare scenario.

One last thought; Russia's hypersonic demonstration also instantly rendered ALL of our Aircraft Carrier Strike Groups (11 at last count?) almost entirely obsolete. 'Almost' because they can still be used against nations that do not have hypersonic weaponry, but when it comes to Russia, forget it. And let's not forget that Russia is allied with Israel's arch enemy Iran. This is also going to be a huge game changer in the Middle East ...

RayAmerica says

were many expert voices declaring that Russia was a backward country that was using armed with antiquated equipment from the old Soviet Union.

Yeah, @socal2 was one of them.

But! But...Ukey Nazi Fluffers on PatNet keep insisting that Russia is losing this war!

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

But! But...Ukey Nazi Fluffers on PatNet keep insisting that Russia is losing this war!

3 years later. Not using advanced weapons. Until people realize this was a money laundering scheme, they won't know. Russia would be done as a country if we wanted it done. Biden and his family and military contractors are set for life. That's what Obama started and Biden finished.

If we gave Ukraine the real weapons Russia is toast. The French and UK have nuke capable ICBM's. We're giving hand me down weapons and Russia isn't sealing the deal. They're getting 20-30% effort from the west and need North Koreans who are defecting. Russia only has nukes in it's arsenal and that's a non-starter. Russian leaders would be dead in 20 minutes if they went down that path.

Fabric of reality warping on behalf of team trash talking aside, it might wind up being the Dnipro River as the new border with Kiev divided with a Russian half, Odessa operated as an open port for the remains of Ukraine but under Russian administration, and the various surrounding countries biting off chunks of the 'current' Ukraine aka Poland, Hungary etc.

Remainder of Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO. That will damp the international criminal enterprises a jot or two.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/no-no-nato-saturday-november-30-2024

This morning, the Atlantic ran a remarkable story headlined, “How Biden Made a Mess of Ukraine.” It was yet more retconning: the author, a neocon professor of ‘strategic studies,’ argued that the Proxy War could easily have been won in 2022 had Biden just taken off the velvet gloves and dared Putin to declare nuclear war. Professor O’Brien is so sure Putin would have chickened out that he’s willing to bet your life on it.

It’s been one week since the Russians showed the world their game-changing, unstoppable Orechnik missile, and ever since the Proxy War narrative has been evolving at Internet speed. One cannot help but detect a distinct whiff of a looming terminus — we are rapidly racing down the tracks toward the war’s inevitable end.

Vanished are the triumphal stories about Ukraine blowing up a random Russian tank in the icy mud somewhere. All the articles now breathlessly describe the war’s unsustainability. The newest narrative is Ukraine lacks men and morale.

We are finally homing in on the real issue, as evidenced by three headlines from yesterday. Reuters:

Ukraine asks NATO for membership invite next week, letter shows
By John Irish and Tom Balmforth
November 29, 2024 4:01 PM EST...

But midway through, the article raised the same mockingbird theme as the others: “security guarantees” are a synonym for NATO membership. “NATO membership,” the Economist argued, “would help prevent Ukraine from becoming unstable, embittered and vulnerable to co-option by Mr Putin in pursuit of his ultimate aim, which is to destabilise and dominate Europe.”

Neither Putin nor any other Russian official has ever claimed the country’s “ultimate aim” was to dominate Europe. The Economist made that up. But Russia has said, over and over, it invaded to prevent Ukraine’s NATO membership. And Russian officials, from President Putin down, have repeatedly stated the country’s minimum condition: no NATO for Ukraine.

Only neocons care about Ukraine joining NATO. Ukrainian citizens don’t care. They just want peace and security. The Proxy War was caused by the prospect of NATO membership, and now we see they are willing to trade land for it, up to 25% of Ukraine’s territory, that’s how important it is to them.

Since Orechnik destroyed a major military manufacturing facility, Russia has accelerated the war on all fronts. It is beyond obvious Ukraine cannot hold out. The headlines tentatively reflect this, and are staging the excuses for Ukraine’s loss, if it comes suddenly. For example, yesterday in the Associated Press:

Desertion threatens to starve Ukraine's forces at a crucial time in its war with Russia

Ukraine’s controversial conscription system, where unwilling Ukrainian men are arrested, handed a gun and an instructional pamphlet, rushed to the front lines and forced to fight, is not much different from Roman-style slavery. But the problem is that many of these involuntary soldiers flee at their first chance, a chance that often arises at the most inconvenient times. Stanislav! Quickly, hand me the next rocket! …Stanislav?

The article reported, without anywhere near the proper level of astonishment, that up to two hundred thousand Ukrainians have deserted since the start of the war. The real figures could even be higher. By comparison, at the beginning of the Proxy War, the entire Ukrainian Army numbered around 300,000 men.

Behold, the bad news embargo has definitely lifted:

Facing every imaginable shortage, tens of thousands of Ukrainian
troops, tired and bereft, have walked away from combat and front-
line positions to slide into anonymity, according to soldiers, lawyers
and Ukrainian officials. Entire units have abandoned their posts,
leaving defensive lines vulnerable and accelerating territorial losses,
according to military commanders and soldiers.
Some take medical leave and never return, haunted by the traumas
of war and demoralized by bleak prospects for victory. Others clash
with commanders and refuse to carry out orders, sometimes in the
middle of firefights.

An unnamed officer with Ukraine’s 72nd Brigade told the AP, “It is clear that now, frankly speaking, we have already squeezed the maximum out of our people.” He added, “The percentage of deserters has grown exponentially every month.”

Finally, another emerging narrative strain appeared in a Politico story yesterday headlined, “7 weeks until Trump: Russia and Ukraine fight for advantage before peace talks are imposed.” The sub-headline ominously added, “The risk of a miscalculation is growing as the war enters a potentially decisive — and dangerous — new phase.”

Russia may have Orechnik, but the U.S. has its own game-changing wonder weapon. “There’s about to be a game-changing proposition put into the theater in the form of Donald Trump,” said James Nixey, head of the Russia-Eurasia program at London’s Chatham House think-tank. Tellingly, like the AP, pro-Ukraine Nixey also reported the country is short of manpower and even said it seems to be “on course to lose this war.”

Politico’s article ended on a stunningly uplifting note, with a final quote from the think-tanker: “Putin does want to bring the rules-based international order, shabby and imperfect as it is, crumbling down,” he added. I don’t think that would be as bad an outcome as Politico and Mr. Nixey seem to think.

The conflict is finally boiling down to its final unstoppable force meets immovable object moment. The failed state of Ukraine must never be admitted into NATO. What Trump will do with this opportunistic crisis remains to be seen, but I’ll bet whatever it is, they never see it coming.

Patrick says

Vanished are the triumphal stories about Ukraine blowing up a random Russian tank in the icy mud somewhere.

You mean like posts made by @socal2?

https://www.rt.com/russia/608376-svr-west-kiev-troops/

West plotting to ‘occupy’ Ukraine – Russian intel
Plans are being made to freeze the conflict by sending 100,000 foreign troops to the country, according to the SVR

The West is secretly planning to occupy Ukraine and freeze the conflict with Russia by deploying tens of thousands of supposed peacekeepers to the country, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has said.

In a statement on Friday, the spy agency cited intelligence sources as saying that NATO is increasingly in favor of halting the hostilities along the current front line, as the US-led military bloc and Ukraine have come to realize that they are failing to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia.

Freezing the conflict would allow the West to rebuild the shattered Ukrainian military and “prepare it for an attempt at revenge,” the SVR stated. It further claimed that NATO is already setting up training centers to process at least one million Ukrainian conscripts.

A possible respite would also help the West restore Kiev’s military industry, which has been regularly battered by Russian missile and drone strikes, the SVR added.

“To solve these tasks, the West will need to essentially occupy Ukraine. Naturally, this will be done under the guise of deploying a ‘peacekeeping contingent’ in the country… According to the plan, a total of 100,000 so-called peacekeepers will be deployed in Ukraine.”

Patrick says

Plans are being made to freeze the conflict by sending 100,000 foreign troops to the country, according to the SVR

NATO troops or third world mercs?

The distinction is important.

Because either way, they become legit targets the moment they arrive. Possibly before that as the transport planes carrying them are fair game to be shot down the moment they enter Ukey Nazi airspace.

And NATO couldn't even field that many troops. Not even if over 50% are US.

Italians, Finns, French, Polish & Germans seeing their only sons coming home in body bags isn't politically viable either.

So my guess are mercs. Some are going to be European and Americans in western PMCs. But the governments of those will be able to avoid culpability.

The rest will be French Foreign Legionnaires (90% of whom are not French but turd worlders) and other foreign PMCs from Africa, India, Asia and South America. NATO's counter to Norks being deployed by Russia that our press first denied and now are screaming about. The hypocrisy would be stunning except that it is completely predictable.

Meanwhile, this map is over two years old now. Why? Because it was obvious what the outcome of this war was always going to be.



P.S. now that section of what will be left of Rump Nazi Ukraine will end up actually being smaller than it is.

That's what the bullshit caused by the Ukey Nazi Fluffers both on and off of PatNet have wrought by extending this war.

Yawn, another map to fap at by Pukin cum gurglers? Put it into the predictions thread if you dare. And update that another hilarios map thread which is as far from the reality now as it was then. Make sure it reflects the loss of Kursk by the illegitimate Moscow regime.

RWSGFY says

Yawn, another map to fap at by Pukin cum gurglers? Put it into the predictions thread if you dare. And update that another hilarios map thread which is as far from the reality now as it was then. Make sure it reflects the loss of Kursk by the illegitimate Moscow regime.

^^^^^^

That's what the bullshit caused by the Ukey Nazi Fluffers both on and off of PatNet have wrought by extending this war.

RWSGFY says

Yawn, another map to fap at by Pukin cum gurglers? Put it into the predictions thread if you dare. And update that another hilarios map thread which is as far from the reality now as it was then. Make sure it reflects the loss of Kursk by the illegitimate Moscow regime.

Here’s a prediction: the money train stops once Trump is in office, and this pointless war ends at the current boundaries. Ukraine does not join NATO and the state department flunkies put their bloody prints on a Georgian coup or Syrian ISIS funding to stymy Russia (though that too will fail). Happy? We have a treasonous state dept, whose ouster will be all of our gains.

I suppose the partitions have already been secretly settled to the more or less, with the reveals to be wound out whenever.

Some Woo think that the demarcation border will be the Dnipro River with Kiev partitioned and Odessa given a diplomatic corridor for access and port use by what remains of Ukraine. I suppose the chunks to Poland, Hungary etc. could be bribes for the local cluster.

However, there will be no Ukraine membership in NATO. The Ukraine Nazis/KMaf Nazis will be on a tighter leash without their previous criminal enterprise gloss.

Of course, there are those who think that Ukraine's blackmail abilities over the participation of the Western powers in the crime syndicates will dictate that Ukraine will preferably be glassed to cover up the crime scene as mafia standard operating procedure.

Ceffer says

Some Woo think that the demarcation border will be the Dnipro River with Kiev partitioned and Odessa given a diplomatic corridor for access and port use by what remains of Ukraine. I suppose the chunks to Poland, Hungary etc. could be bribes for the local cluster.

Yeah, since 2018:




But now, that chunk on the other side of the Dneiper River may go to Russia.

And Romania may get some chunks, too.

Ceffer says

However, there will be no Ukraine membership in NATO.

Hahaha. Right. The West cannot be trusted at all on honoring that, Binding Treaty or not.

Post-Trump, the Deep State Fucks will be back in biz, that's why.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Hahaha. Right. The West cannot be trusted at all on honoring that, Binding Treaty or not.

This all ends the day Trump gets in office if he proposed Russia join NATO. Bat shit crazy idea, but Russia wanted to be in on NATO I think during the Clinton years. They then could accept Ukraine being in NATO.

Strike while the iron is hot. Dems are dysfunctional right now. Their usual tactics of Trump being a Putin lover won't work. Ukraine then also joins. You've just created the largest alliance and PEACE in history. Trump is a lame duck so I wouldn't be shocked if he tried it. Problem is other NATO countries trusting and agreeing to let them in and I believe it has to be unanimous.

Would hurt some of our natural gas producers here in the states, but it would hurt China more which I know is an objective of Trumps. Europe gets their gas prices down. They don't fear attack. Our energy prices drop because we have so much. We remove the sanctions from Russia and open up trade again with massive caution and oversight.

It also would neuter Iran, Syria, Hezbolla and Hamas. So the whole Israel thing goes away likely. It would be a bold and likely impossible move, but it's what should happen. Guaranteed Nobel Peace Prize for Trump if he pulls it off. China would stop being aggressive knowing 90% of the worlds military could wipe them out in hours. So all this South China sea and Taiwan shit saber rattling would stop.

Russia in NATO could also end the Korean bull shit. I know Trump isn't a fan of NATO, but in one fell swoop he could change the outlook of the globe for generations. We're 55 miles from Eastern Russia. We should be allies really. Also probably shuts down BRICS.

War machine probably would never let it happen though is the other factor. Love or hate it, NATO has stopped Europe from being dip shits for almost a century now. It would be the right move. Spain to edge of Russia. I don't trust Russians, but the benefits far outweigh the negatives. Not a single group of countries could mess with that. It make peace a 90% proposition. Still will be some bull shit, but better than it is now.

^re: Russia in NATO, “it’s so crazy it just might work!” Really though, we lost the opportunity of a century in the 90’s to ally with Russia. We needed a Marshall Plan, but instead got Morgenthau when Clinton’s state dept advised Russia undergo economic “shock therapy.” This predictably led to oligarchs, corruption, and a sense that the US couldn’t be trusted. And with Jeffrey Sachs, Madeleine Albright, and Zbigniew at the helm, they were right - that group’s only aim was to weaken and fragment Russia.

For those interested, it really was Jeff Sachs behind the shock therapy idea. For all his sober-mindedness and anti-establishment ‘truth-telling’ (these days), it would be nice if he’d acknowledge that colossal failing.

https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/seagdr7kp2wpe92rgkjarm45asw4fd

It would be the largest domino that would change history. North Koreans are already defecting from battle. Putin is aging. Just get them in NATO which is what they wanted. So many good things come from it. Africa is a joke. South American is generally a joke. Aussies are on our side. A Russian US alliance just makes sense. That's damn near 60% of the world in the same alliance, which zero other super power. We just have to play in the sandbox nicely. Won't always be pretty.

And now, the latest news from the Front (aka, more proof that Ukraine is winning. It really, really is. Any day now Russia will be waving the white flag):



Ukrainian soldiers refusing to report for duty or walking away from their front-line positions are becoming an increasing problem for Kiev. One Ukrainian lawmaker said that there have been as many as 200,000 desertions.

Ukrainian officials and soldiers told the AP that “Facing every imaginable shortage, tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops, tired and bereft, have walked away from combat and front-line positions to slide into anonymity.” The report adds, “Entire units have abandoned their posts, leaving defensive lines vulnerable and accelerating territorial losses, according to military commanders and soldiers.”

Soldiers failing to report to their posts are a rapidly worsening problem for Kiev. In 2022, only 9,000 Ukrainians were prosecuted for desertion. That number increased to 24,000 in 2023. Ukrainian government data showed prosecutions skyrocketed to 50,000 during the first nine months of 2024.

The prosecutions do not capture the whole picture as one Ukrainian lawmaker told AP the number “could be as high as 200,000.” The growing problem is likely a result of war fatigue. “It is clear that now, frankly speaking, we have already squeezed the maximum out of our people,” said one military officer.

Between casualties and desertions, Kiev is facing a massive manpower shortage. The AP noted Kiev lost a net 4,000 soldiers along the front lines in September. The White House is pushing Ukraine to lower its consumption age to 18 to help fill shortages.

https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/as-many-as-200000-ukrainian-soldiers-have-deserted/

WookieMan says

Strike while the iron is hot. Dems are dysfunctional right now. Their usual tactics of Trump being a Putin lover won't work

It would require Senate ratification. 2/3 vote.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/03/politics/senate-vote-nato-finland-sweden/index.html

Won't happen.

goofus says

would be nice if he’d acknowledge that colossal failing.

He did.

https://open.substack.com/pub/taibbi/p/a-true-shock-economist-jeffrey-sachs

RayAmerica says

Ukrainian officials and soldiers told the AP that “Facing every imaginable shortage, tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops, tired and bereft, have walked away from combat and front-line positions to slide into anonymity.” The report adds, “Entire units have abandoned their posts, leaving defensive lines vulnerable and accelerating territorial losses, according to military commanders and soldiers.”

But @socal2 kept telling us that Ukraine had one of the best armies in the world!

RayAmerica says

The White House is pushing Ukraine to lower its consumption age to 18 to help fill shortages

One year and one month into the full-out offensive by the "second military in the world", propped up by arms supplies from NoKo and Iran with eyewatering daily losses and here we are...

And half of this time (Oct 23 - Apr 24) even the slow and niggardly US military aid was turned off.

Tell me again how everybody should just roll over and play surrender monkey to mighty Pukin, LOL

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

That's what the bullshit caused by the Ukey Nazi Fluffers both on and off of PatNet have wrought by extending this war.

Ha ha! As if Russia didn't try and utterly fail to take Kiev 3 years ago and decapitate the entire government of "nazees"?

Did that not happen? Was it never part of Russia's plan to quickly topple Zelensky's government and install their puppet?

Was it always Russia's plan to get hundreds of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians killed and grievously wounded to barely advance a few miles in trench warfare in the East over the past 3 years?

All part of the plan?

I can see Ukraine hanging on with a defensive war freezing current lines (just with EU weapons) long before Russia being able to start some sort of breakout using North Korean cannon fodder.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/chicken-kiev-tuesday-december-3-2024

This morning, the Washington Post ran a story with a surprising tone headlined, “Biden surges arms to Ukraine, fearing Trump will halt U.S. aid.” The sub-headline added, “The directive has stirred debate, as some officials worry it will cut too deeply into American stockpiles and jeopardize the military’s needs elsewhere.”

In other words, Zelensky is saying, please! let us keep the killing going just a little bit longer!

How can it possibly help Ukraine to extend the war out for another 30 or 60 days when Ukraine is losing? I could see drawing it out if Ukraine were winning. But this is like getting demolished in a kickboxing match and, as soon as you come to, deliriously begging for a second try through broken teeth. Put me back in!

Even worse, as WaPo admitted, the U.S. has sent so many weapons to Ukraine it is running dangerously low on its own defensive inventories. On top of that, the article makes clear that weapons aren’t even the real problem anymore—it’s that there aren’t enough bodies. “Over the course of especially this last year, it’s just that they’re not mobilizing and training enough soldiers to replace battlefield losses,” a senior administration official explained, adding “on the manpower side, it’s just a question of math and physics.”

Bizarrely, Kiev blames America for its manpower shortage. Since potential recruits recognize there aren’t enough good weapons for a fair fight, the argument goes, they won’t volunteer to join the army. Thus, since America is too slow in sending more more more, Ukraine’s manpower shortage is our fault.

See? There aren’t enough recruits to justify supplying more weapons, but there aren’t enough weapons coming to attract new recruits. Chickens and grenades.

Curiously, I discovered Democrat angst over Hunter’s pardon seeping into the comments of WaPo’s article about Ukraine weaponry:

Biden always waits until it is too late before he does the right thing. This would
have been a much different war if Ukraine had the arms they have now from the
beginning. I had thought Biden would be a good president for the last 40 years.
Boy, was wrong. From picking Harris, to caving to the Progs' spending demands, to
clinging to power, and now to now pardoning his son he has been a disaster.

Whew! The list of Democrat complaints against Biden is really growing.

So, to summarize, the WaPo itself identified four good reasons not to send any more weapons to Ukraine:

Trump will end the war soon anyway, and there’s no chance Kiev could win in the meantime.

U.S. defensive stocks, such as air defense missiles, are getting critically low.

At this point, Ukraine lacks enough men to use the weapons even if supplied.

Zelensky is an annoying little git and everyone is sick and tired of hearing his stupid accent and mangled malapropisms.

Okay, I admit I added the fourth one. The WaPo gave us three good reasons. I won’t repeat the article’s dumb arguments in favor of sending weapons, threadbare as they were. Take my word for it; they were all ineffable expressions of intangible, unquantifiable, zero-calorie, virtue-signaling nonsense, like “teaching other authoritarians a lesson.”

Yeah! Teach them a lesson! Wait, who? What lesson? Who cares! Rockets wheeeeeee

What was most remarkable about this otherwise unremarkable story was that the WaPo actually included both sides of the argument, a breathtaking reversion to pre-pandemic journalistic standards. It’s far too early to conclude the media is trying to rehabilitate itself; it’s more likely that the embargo on anti-Kiev reporting is over, because voters recently proved the constant stream of pro-war propaganda isn’t working anymore.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

It would require Senate ratification. 2/3 vote.

Hopium. Didn't say it will happen, but just saying it would be the best outcome. Russia gets the land it wants and Ukraine would then be protected as well. Create trade agreements like we did with neighbors. Mexico and Canada are basically states at this point.

Fact is Russia and Ukraine could get along outside of the NATO bullshit currently if they were both in it. It would fuck China and N. Korea over. It would wall China and N. Korea in and not act like cunts because India is no friend to China either. Lift the sanctions which are absolutely destroying Russia as they lie about stats.

I agree that 2/3rd of the Senate wouldn't approve it, but no one has actually tried. It could literally stabilize the entire Northeastern hemisphere overnight. Still have to get full approval of other NATO countries. So again, likely impossible. That would just leave the turd of Africa to figure out. South America is somewhat bad, but is overhyped because of Venezuela.

I don't know if Putin wants it either, but it could open up the floodgates of money for Russia and give them protection. There would be so many wins. If politics weren't involved it's an obvious solution. Given our own corruption, it's another avenue to get money for congress critters.

https://thepeoplesvoice.tv/pentagon-secretly-awarded-covid-19-research-contract-to-ukraine-3-months-before-pandemic-existed/

The United States Department of Defence (DOD) awarded a contract to a bio-lab in Ukraine for “COVID-19 Research” on the 12th November 2019 – three months before the pandemic officially existed.

According to newly released documents, the contract awarded to Labyrinth Global Health INC was part of a secretive ‘Biological threat reduction program in Ukraine’.

Coincidentally, Labyrinth Global Health has been collaborating with Peter Daszak’s EcoHealth Alliance, and Ernest Wolfe’s Metabiota since its formation in 2017.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

goofus says

would be nice if he’d acknowledge that colossal failing.

He did.

https://open.substack.com/pub/taibbi/p/a-true-shock-economist-jeffrey-sachs

Thank you! Good article. It seems he did try, didn’t he. He’s viewed as a proponent of shock therapy, but perhaps not the “privatize all assets into the hands of 11 oligarchs, 10 of which are dual citizens with Israel and have western capital” version. https://www.nytimes.com/1993/06/27/magazine/dr-jeffrey-sachs-shock-therapist.html

https://babylonbee.com/cleanArticle/confused-senior-citizen-pledges-1-billion-to-exiled-nigerian-prince

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/strategic-withdrawal-wednesday-december

It’s kind of hard to overstate Zelensky’s inherent absurdity. He played the president on a TV show. They are literally making Wag the Dog into predictive programming.

As an actor, Zelensky performed from scripts written by anonymous scriptwriters. Zelensky came to the job with zero experience helpful for leading a country, much less leading a country in wartime. He’s not even a real history teacher. How does he successfully navigate Ukrainian politics? How did he learn what all the Cabinet positions do? How did this true outsider build constructive relationships with the established political actors and prevent opposition from arising?

Maybe Zelensky is an unrecognized prodigy or genius whose buried talents blossomed in a shock election just as absurd as his scripted election on Servant of the People. That could be. But it seems much more reasonable to believe Zelensky is a Biden-like puppet. Who’s writing his scripts now?

Yet the media never explains any of this or even mentions it at all. And that’s the point. It’s not our job to try to figure out what’s really going on in Eastern Europe and who’s pulling the strings behind the scenes. That’s the media’s job. Or at least it was the media’s job, until they sold out for easy government money and surrendered in cowardice after a few sly threats from the FBI.

Anyway, the point is you should be very suspicious, if not outright unbelieving, when the media boils complicated geopolitical events down into childlike, simplistic personality contrasts. It is not Putin versus Zelensky in Ukraine, don’t make me laugh. And it is just as much not Erdogan versus Assad in Syria.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/strategic-withdrawal-wednesday-december

Anyway, this was just a quirky religious interest story until I reached the paragraph explaining why exactly Russian prosecutors finally decided to ban the Satanic Temple. It wasn’t for being Satanists. Or at least, not just for being Satanists. No, Russia banned the Satanic Temple for being a United States dirty-tricks front group:

In a statement, the Prosecutor General’s Office accused members of The Satanic Temple of “promoting occult ideology” by using Satanic symbols to “discredit traditional spiritual and moral values” as well as “spreading destructive pseudo-theological ideas and justifying violence … with the support of US government agencies.”

Four years ago, I would have never even considered that the Satanic Temple, a demonic deception masquerading as an anti-religion religion, might actually have been started and controlled by the United States government. But after covid, the Twitter files, and after witnessing the Whitmer Fednapping Hoax, I’m pretty much prepared to consider just about anything.

Recall what the 'experts' were saying at the beginning of the Ukraine/Russia conflict?

"Russia is a backward country with an inferior military using antiquated hardware left over from the old failed Soviet Union ... blah, blah, blah."

Fast forward to reality. From the UK Telegraph:

America is defenseless against Russia’s new Oreshnik hypersonic missile
by Rebekah Koffler

The US military is years behind Moscow in this new form of missile warfare

Nato foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels to discuss the rapidly escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the agenda, among other things, is Russia’s recent attack on Ukraine with an experimental new hypersonic missile, never used in war before. Neither the US nor the UK currently has the capability to shoot down such a missile. But what threat does the Oreshnik pose to Europe and the US?

Russia first launched the Oreshnik on Nov 21, striking a weapons production plant in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, in retaliation against Ukrainian strikes on a Russian military facility in Bryansk with US-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles. Following the launch, Putin threatened to target “military, military-industrial facilities or decision-making centres, including in Kyiv” with the Oreshnik, characterising such an attack as “comparable in strength to a nuclear strike”. President Zelensky’s residence and Ukrainian Parliament would be included under Putin’s definition of a decision-making centre.

The Oreshnik is unique. An arms-control treaty-breaking missile system, it is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) masquerading as an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). ICBMs are designed to wage a nuclear war. The Oreshnik’s design is based on the RS-26 Rubezh, an ICBM, and its instrumentation (sensors, electronics, and the data acquisition capabilities installed on the missile) are those of the Rubezh. Flying at hypersonic speeds of Mach 11 (eleven times the speed of sound), the missile can carry either a conventional (non-nuclear) or nuclear payload. It is also a MIRV, or multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle, another signature of an ICBM. The Oreshnik fired at Dnipro carried six such warheads.

The range of this missile is between 500 km and 5000 km – enabling it to target most of Europe and the West Coast of the United States. Once launched, it can strike various targets in Europe, including Britain, in 12 to 20 minutes. In other words, the Oreshnik can do the job of an atomic ICBM, but without producing a nuclear mushroom.

Hypersonic missiles are nearly impossible to defend against because they fly many times faster than the speed of sound and, unlike ballistic missiles and slower cruise missiles, are highly maneuverable. Tracking this type of missile is highly problematic as it is designed to evade missile defence interceptors by continuously changing direction in flight.

The detection, characterisation, and tracking of an Oreshnik-type missile – a prerequisite for shooting one down – is also a very tall order. This is because early warning systems (a combination of satellites, hosted payloads in various orbits, ground-based radars, and various supporting computer software) are looking for so-called “signatures”, i.e. unique characteristics to a specific missile (shape, size, speed, heat/temperature, emissions, plume), to determine the type of missile fired. And since Oreshnik’s instrumentation is that of an ICBM, the technical means could interpret it as an ICBM.

Creating confusion – what the pre-eminent Prussian military strategist Carl Von Clausewitz called “The Fog of War” – is an integral part of Russia’s war-fighting strategy. The aim is to seek strategic advantage over the adversary by unbalancing him psychologically, while delaying and complicating his response.

By firing the Oreshnik, Putin sought to send a message to the US and Nato to stop arming Ukraine, without provoking a disproportionate escalation. To prevent a response to what could have been determined to be a nuclear attack, Moscow pre-notified Washington through a nuclear arms control channel prior to striking Ukraine with the Oreshnik. During wartime, if Russia and Nato were in a direct kinetic war, Putin would almost certainly not issue such an alert.

Russia’s growing arsenal of hypersonic missiles also includes the Kinzhal and the Zircon. As of December 2023, Russia also deployed the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), operated by the country’s Strategic Rocket Forces. Launched from an ICBM, Avangard can carry a nuclear warhead. Once the HGV detaches from the ICBM, using its own propulsion system, it glides towards its target at hypersonic speeds, while conducting sharp horizontal and vertical evasive manoeuvres.

The UK currently has no equivalent to the Oreshnik, although the UK Ministry of Defence has a programme aiming to develop “future hypersonic concepts and technologies”. The first UK domestically-produced hypersonic cruise missile is not expected until 2030.

The United States is also behind Russia (and China) when it comes to hypersonics. In an effort to catch up, the US military successfully tested, after multiple delays, the Army’s Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), known as Dark Eagle in June, from the Pacific Missile Range Facility, in Kauai, Hawaii. A June Government Accountability Office report, however, blasted the Pentagon for using last-century’s engineering techniques in at least four of its six ongoing hypersonic missile development programmes. The target dates for the US military to field hypersonic missiles are between 2027 and 2029.

Russia’s hypersonic missiles, including the Oreshnik, pose a grave threat to the UK homeland and British Armed Forces as the country’s ballistic missile defence sensor capabilities are very limited. The Royal Air Force does operate an early warning radar at Fylingdales, which is capable of detecting objects 3,000 miles into space, but the facility is hosted by British personnel on behalf of the United States. The UK has no dedicated ballistic missile interceptor of its own.

Russia is highly unlikely to strike the UK with a hypersonic missile, outside of an ongoing direct kinetic conflict between Russia and Nato. Ultimately, however, without the threat of an in-kind retaliation, Putin cannot be deterred from using hypersonic missiles to target Europe until at least 2030.

Rebekah Koffler is a strategic military intelligence analyst, formerly with the US Defense Intelligence Agency. Currently a national security consultant and freelance editorial writer, she is the author of Putin’s Playbook; Regnery 2021. Her podcast Censored But Not Silenced is available on most social media platforms @Rebekah0132

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2024/12/04/america-defenceless-against-russia-new-oreshnik-hypersonic/

RayAmerica says

An arms-control treaty-breaking missile system

What arms control treaty would that be? The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty ended when the US withdrew in 2019.

RayAmerica says

it is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) masquerading as an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM)

No shit. ALL IRBMs are ICBMs that have just been purposely limited in range. Or, ALL ICBMS are just IRBMs that have expanded range.

DUH.

But the author clearly is counting on the average reader not understanding that in order to smear Russia with 'masquerade'.

RayAmerica says

ICBMs are designed to wage a nuclear war.

Really? Then explain the ones that have chemical and biological payloads?

Jesus. This whole thing is just Deep State Newspeak blah-blah-blah for propaganda purposes.

RayAmerica says

Rebekah Koffler is a strategic military intelligence analyst, formerly with the US Defense Intelligence Agency.

There you go!

RayAmerica says

Currently a national security consultant and freelance editorial writer,

Translation: Deep State propagandist.

Next time you get something like this, please post it here: https://patrick.net/post/1344073/2022-03-11-thread-for-exposing-blatant-propaganda

RayAmerica says

Russia first launched the Oreshnik on Nov 21, striking a weapons production plant in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, in retaliation against Ukrainian strikes on a Russian military facility in Bryansk with US-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles.

So what's the problem? We have the ability to strike Russia and did? Russia has a few missiles? This is a European problem. They couldn't even strike Alaska if they wanted. They tested a rocket with no payload, conventional or otherwise. Big metal object hits ground says cave man.

Drop a MOAB over Moscow. See how tiny the paper tiger is. Again, I have no pony in this race. Both sides look stupid. We just get to test weapons and they work.

https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864804141735842253

Russia’s longtime foreign minister describes the war with the United States and how to end it.

(0:00) Is the US at War With Russia?
(12:56) Russia’s Message to the West Through Hypersonic Weapons
(17:47) Is There Conversation Happening Between Russia and the US?
(23:18) How Many Have Died in the Ukraine/Russia War?
(28:21) What Would It Take To End the War?
(36:11) What Happened to Alexei Navalny?
(39:45) Boris Johnson Wants the War to Continue
(45:43) Sanctions on Russia
(56:31) The Chinese/Russian Alliance
(1:02:18) Who Is Making Foreign Policy Decisions in the US?
(1:05:05) Biden Pushes the US Toward Nuclear War Before Trump Takes Office
(1:08:52) What’s Happening in Syria?
(1:13:08) Lavrov’s Thoughts on Trump

Remember how we were told that the Abrams Tanks were going to be a 'game changer?'

US admits much-hyped tanks failed in Ukraine

Kiev already retired its dwindling stock of M1 Abrams earlier this year

American-made M1 Abrams tanks were “not useful” to the Ukrainian military, despite being billed as a potential “game changer” in the conflict with Russia, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has admitted.

After months of requests from Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky and his officials, the White House approved the transfer of 31 M1 Abrams main battle tanks – enough to equip an entire tank battalion – to Ukraine in January 2023. President Joe Biden said the tanks would help “counter Russia’s evolving tactics and strategy on the battlefield in the very near term,” while multiple US media outlets described them as a “game changer” ahead of Kiev’s planned counteroffensive against Russian forces that summer.

This was not the case, Sullivan said at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California on Saturday. Asked whether the Biden administration could have better prepared Ukraine for the counteroffensive had it supplied Kiev with more heavy weapons, he cited the Abrams tanks as an example of how not everything in America’s arsenal worked in Ukraine.

”When it comes to Abrams tanks, we sent Abrams tanks to Ukraine,” he replied. “These Abrams tank units are actually undermanned because it’s not the most useful piece of equipment for them in this fight.”

Shortly after their deployment, the Russian Defense Ministry began releasing videos of Abrams tanks burning on the battlefield. According to some estimates, as many as 20 of the 31 tanks sent to Ukraine in 2023 have since been destroyed, and Ukrainian commanders began withdrawing the rest from service earlier this year, American officials told AP.

The M1A1 variants sent to Ukraine were first stripped of their depleted uranium armor, leaving them vulnerable to Russian drones and anti-tank missiles.

One of the heaviest main battle tanks in service worldwide, the M1 Abrams weighs in at 60 tons, with the latest M1A2 variant increasing this heft to more than 73 tons. An M1 Abrams tank costs more than $450 per mile in fuel and repairs, according to a 1991 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report adjusted for inflation.

The GAO report stated that the average M1 Abrams needs its track replaced after as little as 710 miles, with engines typically suffering catastrophic “blowouts” after 350 hours of operation.

Even before Biden authorized their delivery to Ukraine, US military officials warned that the Abrams tanks would prove unsuitable for Kiev’s needs.

“The challenge with the Abrams is, it’s expensive. It’s difficult to train on. It is very difficult to sustain. It has a huge, complicated turbine engine that requires jet fuel,” US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl warned in early January 2023. “Frankly, our assessment is just that the Abrams is not the right capability at this time.”

https://www.rt.com/news/608990-abrams-tanks-failed-ukraine/