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So, the Ruble sinks. The Russians will simply buy less imports.
The Ruble is down about 35%.
Oil prices are up about 35%, does that mean the US teeters towards total economic collapse?
I don't know. Is the US in danger of defaulting on their debt?
I don't know. Is the US in danger of defaulting on their debt?
The war in Syria lasted ... what 10 years.
Eric Holder saysI don't know. Is the US in danger of defaulting on their debt?
Depends on the interest rates. If they go up as high as 8%, then the answer is YES.
Misc saysThe war in Syria lasted ... what 10 years.
It's not really ended has it? Our propaganda just quit reporting on it.
It's not really ended has it? Our propaganda just quit reporting on it.
Rumor is they missed their Feb. payments and are seeking extensions.
Misc saysGive the war a few more months or years.
For what?
Sanctions significantly increase chance of Russia international debt default, analysts warn
LONDON, March 2 (Reuters) - Sanctions imposed on Russia have significantly increased the chance of the country defaulting on its dollar- and other international market government debt, analysts at JPMorgan and elsewhere warned on Wednesday.
Russia has over $700 million worth of government bond payments due this month. While in theory it has ample reserves to cover debt, in practice a freeze on some assets and other measures could affect its ability to make payments. read more
"The sanctioning of Russian government entities by the United States, counter-measures within Russia to restrict foreign payments, and disruptions of payment chains present high hurdles for Russia to make a bond payment abroad," JPMorgan said in a note to clients.
"Sanctions ... have significantly increased the likelihood of a Russia government hard currency bond default."
The central bank and the finance ministry did not reply to a Reuters request for comment on the possibility of defaults.
The first crunch date, JP Morgan analysts said, is March 16 when two bond coupon payments are due, although like much of Russia's debt these have 30-day "grace periods" built into them, which would push back any formal moment of default to April 15.
Russia has just under $40 billion worth of international market or "hard currency" debt as it is known. While it is a small amount for an economy of Russia's importance, any missed payment will trigger a chain of events.
Major credit rating agencies like S&P Global, Moody's and Fitch, which all had investment grade scores for Russia until last week, would downgrade it en masse.
JPMorgan estimated that some $6 billion worth of Credit Default Swaps (CDS) that bondholders have bought as insurance policies would also need to payout, although the process could be complicated in the case of further debt sanctions.
The default concerns follow a warning from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) this week, which flagged how roughly half of Russia's $640 billion of foreign exchange reserves had effectively been frozen by international sanctions.
Capital Economics also warned on Wednesday of the growing default risks. It said it would primarily hit international investors - foreigners held $20 billion of Russia’s dollar- and rouble-denominated government debt at the end of last year, according to Russia's central bank - though it also would further scar Moscow's reputation in international markets.
"The likelihood that the government and companies are unable or unwilling to make external debt repayments has risen significantly," Jackson said.
Germans Seize Russian Billionaire Alisher Usmanov’s Mega-Yacht
Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov was sanctioned by the European Union on Monday. Two days later, Forbes has learned from three sources in the yacht industry that one of his prized possessions—the 512-foot yacht Dilbar, valued at nearly $600 million—has been seized by German authorities in the northern city of Hamburg.
Gazprom, Lukoil and Sberbank are now penny stocks as Russian companies collapse in London
Russian natural-gas giant Gazprom, oil-producer Lukoil and leading bank Sberbank are all penny stocks based on their trading on the London Stock Exchange, as the local market was shut for a third day.
Sberbank SBER, -78.43%, which had assets of over $500 billion at the end of 2021, was trading for 3 cents a share in afternoon action. The European Commission on Wednesday approved the resolution plan for its Croatian and Slovenian arms that will be sold. Its Austrian and Czech operations will be wound down, with depositors compensated up to €100,000.
Lukoil LKOD, -93.23%, Gazprom OGZD, -23.50%, and Rosneft Oil ROSN, -77.71% continued to collapse as the dollar-denominated secondary listings in London remained the one venue where Russia’s top companies could be valued.
I'd be a total buyer of Gazprom if I could hold it not as an ADR.
China's energy needs aren't going down.
You know that means you are more willing to trust the Russian government not to steal your investment than the US or British government, right?
The Ukraine, however, has $129 billion of external debt. That's a lot of exposure for their foreign creditors.
Anyone wanna wade through the BIS filings to see which banks are in trouble?
Putin ain't gonna keep control of the Ukraine. Then he might feel an obligation to rebuild the cities he's gonna destroy.
Then the successor government can be made to repay the war reparations as a priority over previous claims.
That $129 billion is gone. It's just a matter of making the bank(s) recognize it.
Misc saysPutin ain't gonna keep control of the Ukraine. Then he might feel an obligation to rebuild the cities he's gonna destroy.
See Grozny, Chechnya.
Exchange rate is meaningless when you can't exchange anything, duh.
RWSGFY says
Exchange rate is meaningless when you can't exchange anything, duh.
China, which manufacturers most of America's shit, is also trading with Russia with no restrictions.
Cutting off Italian Cheese and French Wines means nothing to Ivan Ivanovich.
https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade-ideas/as-the-rouble-sinks--russia-teeters-towards-total-economic-colla-220301?source=patrick.net