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Sanctions Impact in Russia


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2022 Mar 4, 11:05pm   8,708 views  293 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (6)   💰tip ($0.34 in tips)  

Pay $1.81/gallon for gas
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Russia/gasoline_prices/?source=patrick.net

Gas in Russia is cheaper than Gas in Qatar or Bahrain or Saudi Arabia.

Unable to buy $30/lb luxury Italian Cheese, $30/bottle midrange French Wines, expensive German Audio Equipment... what will the Russians do with themselves?

Eat local cheese, drink local beer, and buy the same audio equipment from China that's on Amazon USA

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190   AmericanKulak   2022 Jun 30, 12:48pm  

Eric Holder says



At a price...

"Germany revives coal to counter Russian gas"
https://www.dw.com/en/why-germany-is-reviving-dirty-coal-to-counter-russian-gas-cut/a-62195008

Just last year the 4th Reich that runs the EU insisted that Poland and Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. cut drastically back on coal mining and coal power generation.

Trump was right again.
191   Eric Holder   2022 Jun 30, 1:16pm  

AmericanKulak says

Eric Holder says




At a price...

"Germany revives coal to counter Russian gas"
https://www.dw.com/en/why-germany-is-reviving-dirty-coal-to-counter-russian-gas-cut/a-62195008

Just last year the 4th Reich that runs the EU insisted that Poland and Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. cut drastically back on coal mining and coal power generation.

Trump was right again.


OMG, WE"RE ALL GONNA DIE FROM THE GLOBULL WORMING NOW!!!!!
192   Patrick   2022 Jul 9, 12:42pm  

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/spicy-takes-on-global-energy-and




US foreign policy has basically become “i’m going to pay you to watch me punch myself in the face until you give up!”
193   cisTits   2022 Jul 19, 9:59am  

Chart: Russian Trade Surplus Surges Amid Rising Tensions | Statista

194   Tenpoundbass   2022 Jul 19, 10:03am  

AmericanKulak says

Eat local cheese, drink local beer, and buy the same audio equipment from China that's on Amazon USA


Personally I would go for the Soviet era Tube electronics over anything on Amazon.
195   Eric Holder   2022 Jul 19, 12:41pm  

Tenpoundbass says

Personally I would go for the Soviet era Tube electronics over anything on Amazon.


You don't know what are you talking about. I have a Russian co-worker who once told a story about a TV set his family had when he was growing up: the fucking thing had to be run w/o the rear cover because it would randomly quit every half and hour or so and in order to bring it back to life they had to hit one of the tubes with something (usually a slipper). He said they were running it like that for more then a decade because they either had no money to buy a new one, couldn't buy a new one because of shortages, or both.
196   Eric Holder   2022 Jul 19, 1:57pm  

Russia is so advanced technologically (thanks to it's BEST EDUMACATION SYSTEM IN THE WORLD, no less) that Putler now has to personally travel to fucking Iran and beg them (IRAN, KARL!!!) to give him some UAVs for his very successful "speshual militari opereyshun" which is "going as planned":

Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to Iran next week amid reports that Tehran could supply weapons-capable drones to Russia to use in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

...

An Iranian Foreign Minister spokesperson did not deny the claims Tuesday.

“Iran’s cooperation with Russia in some sophisticated technologies dates to before the Russia-Ukraine war,” said spokesperson Nasser Kanaani. “There has not been any special development in this regard recently.”
...


https://nypost.com/2022/07/12/putin-to-visit-iran-next-week-for-possible-weapons-drones/
197   RWSGFY   2022 Jul 27, 10:15am  

Russian blog (g-translated):

According to Iranian media, Iran has signed an agreement with Russia on the supply of parts and equipment for Russia-owned Western-made aircraft, as well as the repair and maintenance of aircraft.

This, we will say directly, is a complete clusterfuck.

Iranian civil aviation is one of the most unsafe in the world. The main problem is just the lack of spare parts for aircraft and a huge number of counterfeit or heavily worn imported components and parts of extremely low quality. Due to technical problems, 50 percent of the existing 386 Iranian aircraft is on the ground. The newest Iranian Airbus A-330 aircraft were produced in 1992.

The number of air accidents in Iran is declining, but this is due to a decrease in the volume of air transportation itself, in specific figures, Iranian security is at the level of the wildest African countries.

And now it is Iran that will help out the Russian aviation industry. It is impossible to think of a better advertisement for the unconditional refusal to fly on Russian aircraft.


https://el-murid.livejournal.com/
198   Eric Holder   2022 Jul 28, 12:44pm  

As one of the largest research organisations in Europe, the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt; DLR) is committed to engaging in international cooperation for the benefit of society and industry. DLR employs staff from 96 countries. They stand for the peaceful coexistence of all nations and peoples. Violence should never be a means to achieve objectives of any kind. We therefore view the developments in Ukraine with grave concern and condemn Russia's hostile actions.

DLR and the German Space Agency at DLR have been cooperating with Russian institutions on a number of research projects, in some cases with the participation of other German research organisations and universities, and international partners.

Against the backdrop of the aggressive attack on Ukraine, the DLR Executive Board is taking the following measures:

All collaboration activities with Russian institutions on current projects or projects in the planning stage will be terminated.
There will be no new projects or initiatives with institutions in Russia.

Where necessary, DLR will enter into coordination with other national and international partners.


https://www.dlr.de/content/en/articles/news/2022/01/20220303_dlr-ceases-bilateral-cooperation-with-russia.html
199   Eric Holder   2022 Jul 28, 12:45pm  

Due to the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, the Max Planck Society has currently suspended its scientific collaborations at the institutional level.


https://www.mpg.de/16495362/russia-cis
200   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 12, 6:37pm  

Actually, the Russian Economy Is Imploding

Nine myths about the effects of sanctions and business retreats, debunked.

Five months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there remains a startling lack of understanding by many Western policymakers and commentators of the economic dimensions of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion and what it has meant for Russia’s economic positioning both domestically and globally.

Far from being ineffective or disappointing, as many have argued, international sanctions and voluntary business retreats have exerted a devastating effect over Russia’s economy. The deteriorating economy has served as a powerful if underappreciated complement to the deteriorating political landscape facing Putin.

That these misunderstandings persist is not entirely surprising given the lack of available economic data. In fact, many of the excessively sanguine Russian economic analyses, forecasts, and projections that have proliferated in recent months share a crucial methodological flaw: These analyses draw most, if not all, of their underlying evidence from periodic economic releases by the Russian government itself. Numbers released by the Kremlin have long been held to be largely if not always credible, but there are certain problems.

First, the Kremlin’s economic releases are becoming increasingly cherry-picked—partial and incomplete, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics. The Russian government has progressively withheld an increasing number of key statistics that, prior to the war, were updated on a monthly basis, including all foreign trade data. Among these are statistics relating to exports and imports, particularly with Europe; oil and gas monthly output data; commodity export quantities; capital inflows and outflows; financial statements of major companies, which used to be released on a mandatory basis by companies themselves; central bank monetary base data; foreign direct investment data; lending and loan origination data; and other data related to the availability of credit. Even Rosaviatsiya, the federal air transport agency, abruptly ceased publishing data on airline and airport passenger volumes.

Since the Kremlin stopped releasing updated numbers, constraining the availability of economic data for researchers to draw upon, many excessively rosy economic forecasts have irrationally extrapolated economic releases from the early days of the invasion, when sanctions and the business retreat had not taken full effect. Even those favorable statistics that have been released are dubious, given the political pressure the Kremlin has exerted to corrupt statistical integrity.

Mindful of the dangers of accepting Kremlin statistics at face value, our team of experts, using private Russian-language and direct data sources including high-frequency consumer data, cross-channel checks, releases from Russia’s international trade partners, and data mining of complex shipping data, have released one of the first comprehensive economic analyses measuring Russian current economic activity five months into the invasion, with contributions from Franek Sokolowski, Michal Wyrebkowski, Mateusz Kasprowicz, Michal Boron, Yash Bhansali, and Ryan Vakil. From our analysis, it becomes clear: Business retreats and sanctions are crushing the Russian economy in the short term and the long term. Based on our research, we are able to challenge nine widely held but misleading myths about Russia’s supposed economic resilience.""

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/
201   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 12, 6:38pm  


Myth 1: Russia can redirect its gas exports and sell to Asia in lieu of Europe.

This is one of Putin’s favorite and most misleading talking points, doubling down on a much-hyped pivot to the east. But natural gas is not a fungible export for Russia. Less than 10 percent of Russia’s gas capacity is liquefied natural gas, so Russian gas exports remain reliant on a system of fixed pipelines carrying piped gas. The vast majority of Russia’s pipelines flow toward Europe; those pipelines, which originate in western Russia, are not connectable to a separate nascent network of pipelines that link Eastern Siberia to Asia, which contains only 10 percent of the capacity of the European pipeline network. Indeed, the 16.5 billion cubic meters of gas exported by Russia to China last year represented less than 10 percent of the 170 billion cubic meters of natural gas sent by Russia to Europe.

Long-planned Asian pipeline projects currently under construction are still years away from becoming operational, much less hastily initiated new projects, and financing of these costly gas pipeline projects also now puts Russia at a significant disadvantage.

Overall, Russia needs world markets far more than the world needs Russian supplies; Europe received 83 percent of Russian gas exports but drew only 46 percent of its own supply from Russia in 2021. With limited pipeline connectivity to Asia, more Russian gas stays in the ground; indeed, the Russian state energy company Gazprom’s published data shows production is already down more than 35 percent year-on-year this month. For all Putin’s energy blackmail of Europe, he is doing so at significant financial cost to his own coffers*.


*) Putin is a stupid cunt.
202   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 12, 6:39pm  

Myth 2: Since oil is more fungible than gas, Putin can just sell more to Asia.

Russian oil exports now also reflect Putin’s diminished economic and geopolitical clout. Recognizing that Russia has nowhere else to turn, and mindful that they have more purchasing options than Russia has buyers, China and India are driving an unprecedented approximately $35 discount on Russian Urals oil purchases, even though the historical spread has never ranged beyond $5—not even during the 2014 Crimean crisis—and at times Russian oil has actually sold at a premium to Brent and WTI oil. Furthermore, it takes Russian oil tankers an average of 35 days to reach East Asia, versus two to seven days to reach Europe, which is why historically only 39 percent of Russian oil has gone to Asia versus the 53 percent destined for Europe.

This margin pressure is felt keenly by Russia, as it remains a relatively high-cost producer relative to the other major oil producers, with some of the highest break-evens of any producing country. The Russian upstream industry has also long been reliant on Western technology, which combined with the loss of both Russia’s erstwhile primary market and Russia’s diminished economic clout leads to even the Russian energy ministry revising its projections of long-term oil output downward. There is no doubt that, as many energy experts predicted, Russia is losing its status as an energy superpower, with an irrevocable deterioration in its strategic economic positioning as an erstwhile reliable supplier of commodities.*


*) Putin is a stupid cunt.
203   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 12, 6:40pm  

Myth 3: Russia is making up for lost Western businesses and imports by replacing them with imports from Asia.

Imports play an important role within Russia’s domestic economy, consisting of about 20 percent of Russian GDP, and, despite Putin’s bellicose delusions of total self-sufficiency, the country needs crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners. Despite some lingering supply chain leakiness, Russian imports have collapsed by over 50 percent in recent months.

China has not moved into the Russian market to the extent that many feared; in fact, according to the most recent monthly releases from the Chinese General Administration of Customs, Chinese exports to Russia plummeted by more than 50 percent from the start of the year to April, falling from over $8.1 billion monthly to $3.8 billion. Considering China exports seven times as much to the United States than Russia, it appears that even Chinese companies are more concerned about running afoul of U.S. sanctions than of losing marginal positions in the Russian market, reflecting Russia’s weak economic hand with its global trade partners*.



*) Putin is Xi's bitch
204   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 12, 6:42pm  

Myth 4: Russian domestic consumption and consumer health remain strong.

Some of the sectors most dependent on international supply chains have been hit with debilitating inflation around 40-60 percent—on extremely low sales volumes. For example, foreign car sales in Russia fell by an average of 95 percent across major car companies, with sales ground to a complete halt.

Amid supply shortages, soaring prices, and fading consumer sentiment, it is hardly surprising that Russian Purchasing Managers’ Index readings—which capture how purchasing managers are viewing the economy—have plunged, particularly for new orders, alongside plunges in consumer spending and retail sales data by around 20 percent year-over-year. Other readings of high-frequency data such as e-commerce sales within Yandex and same-store traffic at retail sites across Moscow reinforce steep declines in consumer spending and sales, no matter what the Kremlin says.
205   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 12, 6:44pm  

Myth 5: Global businesses have not really pulled out of Russia, and business, capital, and talent flight from Russia are overstated.

Global businesses represent around 12 percent of Russia’s workforce (5 million workers), and, as a result of the business retreat, over 1,000 companies representing around 40 percent of Russia’s GDP have curtailed operations in the country, reversing three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and talent flight in a mass exodus of 500,000 individuals, many of whom are exactly the highly educated, technically skilled workers Russia cannot afford to lose. Even the mayor of Moscow has acknowledged an expected massive loss of jobs as businesses go through the process of fully exiting*.


*) Looks like the mayor of Moscow is less of a stupid cunt than Putler. A low hurdle to clear thought.
206   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 12, 6:45pm  

Myth 6: Putin is running a budget surplus thanks to high energy prices.

Russia is actually on pace to run a budget deficit this year equivalent to 2 percent of GDP, according to its own finance minister—one of the only times the budget has been in deficit in years, despite high energy prices—thanks to Putin’s unsustainable spending spree; on top of dramatic increases in military spending, Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention, including a laundry list of Kremlin pet projects, all of which have contributed to the money supply nearly doubling in Russia since the invasion began. Putin’s reckless spending is clearly putting Kremlin finances under strain*.
207   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 12, 6:47pm  

Myth 7: Putin has hundreds of billions of dollars in rainy day funds, so the Kremlin’s finances are unlikely to be strained anytime soon.

The most obvious challenge facing Putin’s rainy day funds is the fact that of his around $600 billion in foreign exchange reserves, accumulated from years’ worth of oil and gas revenues, $300 billion is frozen and out of reach with allied countries across the United States, Europe, and Japan restricting access. There have been some calls to seize this $300 billion to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Putin’s remaining foreign exchange reserves are decreasing at an alarming rate, by around $75 billion since the start of the war. Critics point out that official foreign exchange reserves of the central bank technically can only decrease due to international sanctions placed on the central bank, and they suggest that nonsanctioned financial institutions such as Gazprombank could still accumulate such reserves in place of the central bank. While this may be technically true, there is simultaneously no evidence to suggest that Gazprombank is actually accumulating any reserves given sizable strain on its own loan book.

Furthermore, although the finance ministry had planned to reinstate a long-standing Russian budgetary rule that surplus revenue from oil and gas sales should be channeled into the sovereign wealth fund, Putin axed this proposal as well as accompanying guidelines directing how and where the National Wealth Fund can be spent—as Finance Minister Anton Siluanov floated the idea of withdrawing funds from the National Wealth Fund equivalent to a third of the entire fund to pay for this deficit this year. If Russia is running a budget deficit requiring the drawdown of a third of its sovereign wealth fund when oil and gas revenues are still relatively strong, all signs indicate a Kremlin that may be running out of money much faster than conventionally appreciated.
208   richwicks   2022 Aug 12, 6:48pm  

RWSGFY says

Iranian civil aviation is one of the most unsafe in the world. The main problem is just the lack of spare parts for aircraft and a huge number of counterfeit or heavily worn imported components and parts of extremely low quality. Due to technical problems, 50 percent of the existing 386 Iranian aircraft is on the ground. The newest Iranian Airbus A-330 aircraft were produced in 1992.


How would YOU know if any of this is true?
209   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 12, 6:49pm  

Myth 8: The ruble is the world’s strongest-performing currency this year.

One of Putin’s favorite propaganda talking points, the appreciation of the ruble is an artificial reflection of unprecedented, draconian capital control—which rank among the most restrictive of any in the world. The restrictions make it effectively impossible for any Russian to legally purchase dollars or even access a majority of their dollar deposits, while artificially inflating demand through forced purchases by major exporters—all of which remain largely in place today.

The official exchange rate is misleading, anyhow, as the ruble is, unsurprisingly, trading at dramatically diminished volumes compared to before the invasion on low liquidity. By many reports, much of this erstwhile trading has migrated to unofficial ruble black markets*. Even the Bank of Russia has admitted that the exchange rate is a reflection more of government policies and a blunt expression of the country’s trade balance rather than freely tradeable liquid foreign exchange markets.



*) It is actually a criminal offense now to trade foreign currencies outside of an official exchange office. RUSSIA IS SOOOOOO FREEEE!!!!
210   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 12, 6:50pm  

Myth 9: The implementation of sanctions and business retreats are now largely done, and no more economic pressure is needed.

Russia’s economy has been severely damaged, but the business retreats and sanctions applied against Russia are incomplete. Even with the deterioration in Russia’s exports positioning, it continues to draw too much oil and gas revenue from the sanctions carveout, which sustains Putin’s extravagant domestic spending and obfuscates structural economic weaknesses. The Kyiv School of Economics and Yermak-McFaul International Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures across individual sanctions, energy sanctions, and financial sanctions, led by former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul and the experts Tymofiy Mylovanov, Nataliia Shapoval, and Andriy Boytsun. Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia.

Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factua l—the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.

211   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 12, 6:52pm  

richwicks says

RWSGFY says


Iranian civil aviation is one of the most unsafe in the world. The main problem is just the lack of spare parts for aircraft and a huge number of counterfeit or heavily worn imported components and parts of extremely low quality. Due to technical problems, 50 percent of the existing 386 Iranian aircraft is on the ground. The newest Iranian Airbus A-330 aircraft were produced in 1992.


How would YOU know if any of this is true?


Iran has been under fucking sanctions for 40 fucking years, HELLO!!!! That includes ban on selling spare parts for aircraft. What's happening in YOUR world?
212   richwicks   2022 Aug 12, 7:16pm  

Hugh_Mongous says

One of Putin’s favorite propaganda talking points, the appreciation of the ruble is an artificial reflection of unprecedented, draconian capital control—which rank among the most restrictive of any in the world. The restrictions make it effectively impossible for any Russian to legally purchase dollars or even access a majority of their dollar deposits, while artificially inflating demand through forced purchases by major exporters—all of which remain largely in place today.


Are you an American?

Open up a foreign bank account.

The US implemented this shit over a decade ago. Seriously, try to open any account outside of the United States.
213   richwicks   2022 Aug 13, 2:51am  

Hugh_Mongous says

Iran has been under fucking sanctions for 40 fucking years,


Sanctions are a joke. All it does it prevent medicine and supplies from getting to people, it doesn't do anything to the government.

How do you think North Korea managed to develop a nuclear weapon with all those sanctions?

All sanctions do is kill civilians, and that's what they're intended to do. It's just something to put pressure on the public to change their government forcibly - it's basically a soft form of terrorism and I don't know of any instance that it worked.
214   Ceffer   2022 Aug 13, 12:59pm  

"Foreign Policy magazine and ForeignPolicy.com are published by The FP Group,[2] a division of Graham Holdings Company (formerly The Washington Post Company). The FP Group also produces FP Events, Foreign Policy's events division, launched in 2012."
"Foreign Policy endorsed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US presidential election. This was the first time in its 50-year history the magazine endorsed a candidate.[9]"

Yeah, Washington Post et alia. That wouldn't be MSM propaganda in scholarly clothes, would it? May as well just watch CNN, more pictures and less text.
215   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 13, 1:01pm  

Ceffer says


"Foreign Policy magazine and ForeignPolicy.com are published by The FP Group,[2] a division of Graham Holdings Company (formerly The Washington Post Company). The FP Group also produces FP Events, Foreign Policy's events division, launched in 2012."
"Foreign Policy endorsed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US presidential election. This was the first time in its 50-year history the magazine endorsed a candidate.[9]"

Yeah, Washington Post et alia. That wouldn't be MSM propaganda in scholarly clothes, would it? HarvardFucks my ass. May as well just watch CNN.


When you can't argue on merit - attack the source. Is Yale "Washington Post et alia" too? Refute the points if you can. Or STFU if you can't.
216   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 13, 1:02pm  

richwicks says


Sanctions are a joke.


Is this why Iran is so keen on them being lifted?
217   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 13, 1:03pm  

richwicks says

How do you think North Korea managed to develop a nuclear weapon with all those sanctions?


Russia gave it to them, duh. They still leave shit lives and constantly begging for food.
218   Ceffer   2022 Aug 13, 1:04pm  

Yale? You mean Skull and Bonesville, the alma mater of Bill and IHLlary's law school and Shrubbie Bush et alia? Globalist Masonic agitprop all the way.

You relied on a source. It is reasonable practice to examine the source.
219   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 13, 1:06pm  

Ceffer says

Yale? You mean Skull and Bonesville, the alma mater of Bill and IHLlary's law school and Shrubbie Bush et alia? Globalist Masonic agitprop all the way.


So you can't refute a single point, right? Pick at least one of 9 and give it a stab.
220   Hugh_Mongous   2022 Aug 13, 1:12pm  

Ceffer says

You relied on a source. It is reasonable practice to examine the source.


The source lists their sources. If you are into source examination business don't be lazy - keep examining. Start with Russian Ministry of Finance. When they say they are on path to a budged deficit, are they being "skull and bones homo lying Yale shits" too?
222   Eric Holder   2022 Aug 15, 1:24pm  


German Energy Minister Robert Habeck said verbatim: "Germany has built a business model that is heavily dependent on cheap Russian gas and thus on a president who violates international law, for whom liberal democracies and their values are declared enemies." "This model has failed and it will not return. We must rebuild at lightning speed."
223   Eric Holder   2022 Aug 15, 1:25pm  

Ceffer says

https://t.me/asbmil/3915


Oh, so Biden's line about "Putin's inflation" is now true? LOL
224   Eric Holder   2022 Aug 15, 1:25pm  

Hugh_Mongous says

Ceffer says


You relied on a source. It is reasonable practice to examine the source.


The source lists their sources. If you are into source examination business don't be lazy - keep examining. Start with Russian Ministry of Finance. When they say they are on path to a budged deficit, are they being "skull and bones homo lying Yale shits" too?


Pwnd.
225   richwicks   2022 Aug 15, 1:57pm  

Hugh_Mongous says

richwicks says


How do you think North Korea managed to develop a nuclear weapon with all those sanctions?


Russia gave it to them, duh. They still leave shit lives and constantly begging for food.


No, if Russia gave them nuclear weapons North Korea's nuclear weapons would actually work. Their first test was smaller than Trinity in released energy.

I'm trying to indicate to you how simple it is to make a nuclear weapon today.

25 years ago, it was literally illegal for me to export a playstation 2 to, say, Iran, because it could literally be used as a super computer. I can emulate the machine now on a $75 raspberry pi.
226   Eric Holder   2022 Aug 17, 1:24pm  

richwicks says

No, if Russia gave them nuclear weapons North Korea's nuclear weapons would actually work.


And they do.
227   Eric Holder   2022 Aug 17, 1:25pm  

Russian blogger (google-translated):

According to Academician Aganbegyan, which he voiced in an interview with Business Online, about a third of the country's citizens by the end of this year will move into the category of beggars - that is, people whose incomes are below the subsistence level. Which in Russia, we will speak frankly, is in itself a beggarly one - a little more than 13 thousand rubles a month.

This literally means the end of even that middle class, which with difficulty, but existed in the country, and more in spite of than thanks to the policy of the authorities. A third of the population in extreme poverty means that at least half of the population is poor or marginally poor. In fact, in this case, no more than 10-15 percent of the population can be considered relatively prosperous, and only 5 - prosperous. For the formation of a sustainable society oriented towards development, such a division is categorically unsuitable. Approximately such social stratification is observed in countries that are in a chronic catastrophe - like the same Venezuela.

The country's GDP will decrease by at least 10 percent by the end of the year, on top of the fall that occurred during the years of the "pandemic", which in fact means the disappearance of half of the economic recovery since the collapse of the USSR. In general, the Russian economy has grown over the past thirty years less than most of the developing countries in the world, with the exception of completely insolvent ones. Aganbegyan calls the reason for the export of capital abroad - more than a trillion dollars over the past 20 years, and the monstrous property inequality, which is one of the most egregious in the world.

I don't see anything surprising in Aganbegyan's model. I have repeatedly referred to the theory of Manur Olson, who, in collaboration with Martin McGuire, identified two types of states, designating them as "sedentary" and "roaming" bandits.

Russia in such a classification is a “wandering bandit”, the goal of the ruling caste is to extract maximum profit from the conquered territory, after which the nobility burdened with booty leaves the area that has been eaten through, moving to a new place.

In this paradigm, the evolution of the Russian nobility took place, moving their families following the capital exported to the West, acquiring property there, acquiring citizenship of the countries of their future residence. At the same time, in Russia itself, the state is viewed as a “wandering bandit” solely as an apparatus of violence designed to maximize the collection of tribute from the conquered territory. No other institutionalization is envisaged in such a paradigm.

It is logical that in the end the territory turns into a scorched clearing with a chronically impoverished population, and the country itself does not have any development resource - it has already changed jurisdiction.

However, there was a systemic failure - the Russian "elite" suddenly found itself robbed. And the goods exported to the West are now confiscated and confiscated by host countries, and the Russian nobility itself, including offspring, becomes persona non grata. However, nothing can be corrected: firstly, the territory of tribute collection has really been robbed to the skin, and secondly, the ruling nomenklatura is psychologically incapable of restructuring its modus operandi, and continues to rob what has already been robbed. We are seeing the result today.


https://el-murid.livejournal.com/5206701.html
228   richwicks   2022 Aug 17, 1:26pm  

Eric Holder says


richwicks says


No, if Russia gave them nuclear weapons North Korea's nuclear weapons would actually work.


And they do.



Look over the history of their weapons tests:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea

They have 1, POSSIBLY 2 tests that were larger than Trinity. Trinity can do some serious damage, but it's a firecracker compared to a modern nuclear weapon of today. Trinity would do severe damage to NYC, but there would be plenty of survivors - a modern nuclear weapon would vaporize the entire city.

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