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housing prices peak 2


               
2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   886,218 views  7,467 comments

by AD   follow (0)  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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7428   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Feb 4, 9:44pm  

MolotovCocktail says

AD says


.

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/homeowners-are-falling-behind-on-their-mortgages/

.





The first one is bullshit as interest rates that low would cause house prices to rise.

Second ain't gonna happen

Third, when the frozen housing market dam bursts..oh yeah.


For those who still think the second is going to happen:


7429   AD   @   2026 Feb 4, 10:31pm  

zzyzzx says

It will if we send all the guest workers home.


Treasury Secretary Bessent told Congresswoman Meeks that Birdbrain Biden regime letting in 10 million immigrants contributed greatly to housing crisis according to a recent Wharton study.

Meeks did not like that and asked for him to "shut up".
7430   The_Deplorable   @   2026 Feb 4, 11:32pm  

MolotovCocktail says



This brings to mind Alan Greenspan who started the housing bubble in 2003 by
deliberately keeping interest rates low (based on the Fed minutes). Greenspan
was the Fed chairman at the time.
7431   AD   @   2026 Feb 5, 12:18am  

The_Deplorable says

This brings to mind Alan Greenspan who started the housing bubble in 2003 by
deliberately keeping interest rates low (based on the Fed minutes). Greenspan
was the Fed chairman at the time.


The 30 year mortgage rate was around 6% from 2003 to 2008.

You think it should have been higher ?

I thought the NINJA loans and ARMs are what caused the Great Recession.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/29/mortgage-rates-are-not-too-high-whats-too-high-are-home-prices-that-exploded-by-40-70-in-2-years-creating-the-affordability-crisis/
7432   stfu   @   2026 Feb 5, 3:26am  

AD says

I thought the NINJA loans and ARMs are what caused the Great Recession.


In the recently published 2018 'image make over' interview that Bannon did with Epstein (the 1:57 video) Bannon asked Epstein who was to blame for the 2008 financial crisis and I thought Epstein gave a very insightful answer :

"Bill Clinton".

I remember in the 2005-2006 timeframe the government push to entice lenders to lend to people that should not have qualified for a loan so that they could push home ownership up by a few hundred basis points. While Clinton was long gone by then Epstein says that it was changes that Clinton instituted that allowed this to happen. I'll have to re listen to the interview to get the specifics.
7433   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   @   2026 Feb 5, 5:16am  

stfu says

AD says


I thought the NINJA loans and ARMs are what caused the Great Recession.


In the recently published 2018 'image make over' interview that Bannon did with Epstein (the 1:57 video) Bannon asked Epstein who was to blame for the 2008 financial crisis and I thought Epstein gave a very insightful answer :

"Bill Clinton".

I remember in the 2005-2006 timeframe the government push to entice lenders to lend to people that should not have qualified for a loan so that they could push home ownership up by a few hundred basis points. While Clinton was long gone by then Epstein says that it was changes that Clinton instituted that allowed this to happen. I'll have to re listen to the interview to get the specifics.


I remember it that way too a Bush Jr was trying to reverse some of it but was getting flak. The excuse I recall was that it was because he was busy warring he didn't concentrate on the bad mortgages.
7434   Al_Sharpton_for_President   @   2026 Feb 5, 6:07am  

It was the securitzation of bad mortgages, the granting of bogus stellar ratings of the trash by bad actors including Moody’s, and the selling of “insurance” against this trash, i.e., credit default swaps (CDS), that brought down the house of cards, e.g., AIG. An no one went to jail.
7435   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   @   2026 Feb 5, 11:11am  

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

According to zillow/redfin the value has dropped about 55K since then.


Now it has dropped 100K according to redfin.
7436   GNL   @   2026 Feb 5, 12:40pm  

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says


According to zillow/redfin the value has dropped about 55K since then.


Now it has dropped 100K according to redfin.

A particular listing or the average/median?
7437   The_Deplorable   @   2026 Feb 5, 4:59pm  

AD says
"You think it should have been higher ?"

Yes. That is what the fed governors who met with Greenspan were proposing.
7438   AD   @   2026 Feb 5, 8:23pm  

stfu says


I remember in the 2005-2006 timeframe the government push to entice lenders to lend to people that should not have qualified for a loan so that they could push home ownership up by a few hundred basis points. While Clinton was long gone by then Epstein says that it was changes that Clinton instituted that allowed this to happen. I'll have to re listen to the interview to get the specifics.


Bill Clinton not only is remember as far as "loathe the military" and Waco, he is remembered at being the master of timing. He came in on an economy set up well by Reagan, and he left a big time bomb for Bush Jr.

Monica Lewinsky was a distraction that the democrats seized as far as claiming Clinton was getting picked on and not getting credit for the time bomb.

The Clinton recession started in 2001 along with the Clinton stock market bust, and his legislation caused the housing crisis about 5 years later.
7439   Misc   @   2026 Feb 5, 11:21pm  

AD says

The Clinton recession started in 2001 along with the Clinton stock market bust, and his legislation caused the housing crisis about 5 years later.


Nope, the Fed dramatically failed. It had supervisory authority over the mortgage market, but instead it let Ninja loans, negative amortization loans, and loans that reset from 1% to 8% over the course of 3 months, but allowed borrowers to qualify at the lower payments. I can't believe that Congress lets them regulate anything given that massive pile of crap.
7440   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Feb 6, 12:02am  

Misc says

can't believe that Congress lets them regulate anything given that massive pile of crap.


Because Congress was AOK with all of it, that's why.
7441   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   @   2026 Feb 6, 10:48am  

GNL says

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says


Maga_Chaos_Monkey says



According to zillow/redfin the value has dropped about 55K since then.


Now it has dropped 100K according to redfin.


A particular listing or the average/median?

The condo i sold
7442   mell   @   2026 Feb 7, 10:13am  

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

GNL says


Maga_Chaos_Monkey says



Maga_Chaos_Monkey says




According to zillow/redfin the value has dropped about 55K since then.


Now it has dropped 100K according to redfin.



A particular listing or the average/median?


The condo i sold

Looks like prices in the bay area are going slightly up again, with 2026 projected to be a low single digit percentage plus
7443   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Feb 8, 8:21pm  

And there it is:


7444   FortWayneHatesRealtors   @   2026 Feb 8, 8:35pm  

MolotovCocktail says

And there it is:





It’s what I told everyone here. Government is going to inflate away bad debt. It’s not for old people, it’s for big time investors who have bad debt. Bailout. He’s already doing it with MBS.
7445   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Feb 8, 9:04pm  

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

It’s what I told everyone here. Government is going to inflate away bad debt. It’s not for old people, it’s for big time investors who have bad debt. Bailout. He’s already doing it with MBS.


Not going to work.
7446   ForcedTQ   @   2026 Feb 8, 9:16pm  

FortWayneHatesRealtors says


MolotovCocktail says


And there it is:





It’s what I told everyone here. Government is going to inflate away bad debt. It’s not for old people, it’s for big time investors who have bad debt. Bailout. He’s already doing it with MBS.


“Somebody who didn’t work hard can buy a home”. Sorry, but what the fuck with that Trump? Say stupid shit win stupid prizes with that.

Costs of homes denominated in Dollars are up largely due to the destruction in value of that currency. The labor value in that same currency has not kept up with the house value. There are other things that the government has caused housing prices to castrate “affordability” as well like changes to building codes, mandates of energy efficiency and solar power systems, costs for permits and developers fees/taxes as well. It’s not that “people didn’t work hard”, before I said that I would say that some (not all) people spend too much money as discretionary income rather than putting it away for savings and would do well to budget their life down for a few years to build up a down payment.

But we still have the obstacles that I mentioned previously to work through…
7447   AD   @   2026 Feb 8, 10:38pm  

FortWayneHatesRealtors says


It’s what I told everyone here. Government is going to inflate away bad debt. It’s not for old people, it’s for big time investors who have bad debt. Bailout. He’s already doing it with MBS.


Trump may be trying to maintain annual inflation at no more than 2.8% (compared to Biden's inflation rate of 5%) while propping up house prices. I think Trump desires housing prices to remain at 2022 all time high levels (or they don't drop more than 20% from there), while household income increases 3% to catch up with housing costs inflated during Biden's admin.

I see firsthand townhomes on east side of Panama City Beach selling for 20% to 25% below 2022 all time high levels (which is early 2021 price level), and renting at 2021 rent levels.

From mid 2022 to fall of 2025 the townhome market in Panama City Beach seemed frozen, until owners were lowering prices at least 15% below 2022 all time high levels.

We firsthand seen our property insurance (HO-3) for our townhome drop from $2300 in 2025 to $1600 in 2026, and our HOA lowered its regular assessment by about 10% because the master building insurance premium dropped a lot and also some of the contractors like landscapers are coming in lower and including more services like handyman, etc. at lower rates.
7448   TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter   @   2026 Feb 8, 10:47pm  

Greenspan kept inflation down pretty damn good during his Chairmanship. He was a big league antiinflation hawk.

The problem was the lack of upward wage pressure due to the low inflation and explosion of H1Bs and legal and illegal immigration, as well as outsourcing, which caused assets like housing and speculative stocks to rise too much as the wealthy were OVERcapitalized. Too much money chasing too few opportunities since there was little wage growth by thee start of the 21st Century.

But most of those things were due to MFN with China, H1Bs, etc. passed by Congress. Fed had no control over that.
7449   AD   @   2026 Feb 9, 12:12am  

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

, which caused assets like housing and speculative stocks to rise too much as the wealthy were OVERcapitalized


Yes, the demand from landlord investors caused housing inflation as its viewed as attractive of an asset as stocks.

In Panama City Beach there were a lot of single family detached homes bought by investors in Atlanta metro who converted them to vacation rentals. This was rampant during the COVID pandemic.

I agree what you stated in regards to wage pressure based on looking at real wage increases since the mid 1990s to present day, and comparing it to median house price appreciation.
7450   FortWayneHatesRealtors   @   2026 Feb 9, 7:00am  

AD says

FortWayneHatesRealtors says



It’s what I told everyone here. Government is going to inflate away bad debt. It’s not for old people, it’s for big time investors who have bad debt. Bailout. He’s already doing it with MBS.


Trump may be trying to maintain annual inflation at no more than 2.8% (compared to Biden's inflation rate of 5%) while propping up house prices. I think Trump desires housing prices to remain at 2022 all time high levels (or they don't drop more than 20% from there), while household income increases 3% to catch up with housing costs inflated during Biden's admin.

I see firsthand townhomes on east side of Panama City Beach selling for 20% to 25% below 2022 all time high levels (which is early 2021 price level), and renting at 2021 rent levels.

From mid 2022 to fall of 2025 the townhome market in Panama City Beach seemed frozen, until owners were lowering prices at least 15% below 2022 all time high levels.

We firsthand seen our property insurance (HO-3) for our townhome drop from $2300 in 2025 to $1600 in 2026, and our HOA lowered its regular assessment by about 10% because the master building insurance premium dropped a lot and also some of the contractors like landscapers are coming in lower and including more services like handyman, etc. at lower rates.


Oh if he could do 10% inflation he would. It’s higher than 2%, because prices have risen. Notice how office of stats stopped giving out stats hiding behind “we are working on backlog”. It’s all lies.
7451   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Feb 9, 8:45am  

ForcedTQ says

“Somebody who didn’t work hard can buy a home”. Sorry, but what the fuck with that Trump? Say stupid shit win stupid prizes with that.


He's a Boomer. They live in a world totally different from the rest of us.
7452   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Feb 9, 8:47am  

AD says

Trump may be trying to maintain annual inflation at no more than 2.8% (compared to Biden's inflation rate of 5%) while propping up house prices. I think Trump desires housing prices to remain at 2022 all time high levels (or they don't drop more than 20% from there), while household income increases 3% to catch up with housing costs inflated during Biden's admin.


Occam's Razor: More likely he's just being a Boomer.
7453   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Feb 9, 8:48am  

AD says

also some of the contractors like landscapers are coming in lower and including more services like handyman, etc. at lower rates.


So much for wage income increasing 3%, then.
7454   AD   @   2026 Feb 9, 11:52am  

MolotovCocktail says

AD says


also some of the contractors like landscapers are coming in lower and including more services like handyman, etc. at lower rates.


So much for wage income increasing 3%, then.


Don't discount the propensity for Florida panhandle businesses to innovate and increase productivity, and then pass on some of that in the form of employee wage increases and bonuses while concurrently providing better value services to their clients.
7455   AD   @   2026 Feb 9, 11:55am  

MolotovCocktail says

ForcedTQ says


“Somebody who didn’t work hard can buy a home”. Sorry, but what the fuck with that Trump? Say stupid shit win stupid prizes with that.


He's a Boomer. They live in a world totally different from the rest of us.


How many boomers own their homes without any lien (i.e., mortgage lien, HELOC, etc) ?

I can see that Trump does not want a "death spiral" as far as housing prices deflation as the boomers than have less equity to use for a reverse mortgage.

No one wants a deflationary "death spiral" , they want prices to drop some or hold steady while income increases.
7456   AD   @   2026 Feb 9, 11:57am  

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Oh if he could do 10% inflation he would. It’s higher than 2%, because prices have risen. Notice how office of stats stopped giving out stats hiding behind “we are working on backlog”. It’s all lies.


Come to Panama City Beach. A lot of prices are down since January 2025 like egg prices, gas, rent, etc

Next PCE report is February 20, so we shall see. They should be fully researching and reporting by now the inflation stats.
7457   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Feb 9, 12:09pm  

AD says

Don't discount the propensity for Florida panhandle businesses to innovate and increase productivity, and then pass on some of that in the form of employee wage increases and bonuses while concurrently providing better value services to their clients.


Copium


7458   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Feb 9, 12:11pm  

AD says

No one wants a deflationary "death spiral" , they want prices to drop some or hold steady while income increases.


What you want in your imagination isn't what reality delivers, tho.
7460   HeadSet   @   2026 Feb 9, 7:00pm  

MolotovCocktail says

And there it is:




Keeping home prices up is not really a good deal for boomers. You just get to pay taxes on your $500k home as if it was worth $1million.
7461   Misc   @   2026 Feb 9, 7:09pm  

HeadSet says

Keeping home prices up is not really a good deal for boomers. You just get to pay taxes on your $500k home as if it was worth $1million.


Do you think for a second that the politicians would tax you less ???
7462   HeadSet   @   2026 Feb 9, 7:19pm  

Misc says

Do you think for a second that the politicians would tax you less ???

Nope, and they keep getting re-elected.
7463   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Feb 10, 8:38am  

ForcedTQ says

“Somebody who didn’t work hard can buy a home”. Sorry, but what the fuck with that Trump? Say stupid shit win stupid prizes with that.


BINGO!
7465   FortWayneHatesRealtors   @   2026 Feb 12, 8:30pm  

MolotovCocktail says






Housing here inflated a ton. Average went from 150 to 380.
7466   TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter   @   2026 Feb 12, 8:38pm  

Every part of Florida brags they are finally gonna bring real, non-Tourist, non-Catheter Changing related jobs to their particular county.

Been doing it since at least the 90s.

Whenever the Chamber of Commerce starts bragging about an expanded college or new hospital as the first thing when it comes to jobs, you know it's bullshit.

The True shit is a Massive Insurance/Bank Back Office, huge R&D Facility, jet engine parts fabrication, etc.

"We added another $20M wing to Dirtwater Community College to teach Interpretive Dance and Peace and Security Studies Departments, and created 10 temporary year-by-year contract jobs for Social Science PhDs as well as a new maintenance position paying $16/hr. Minorities and Women encouraged to apply!"

"Consolidated Health Care added a new Home Health Unit creating 20 new CNA jobs paying $15/hr and two manager positions paying $42k/year. Our County is delivering the high tech health jobs of the future."
7467   MolotovCocktail   @   2026 Feb 12, 8:46pm  

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Every part of Florida brags they are finally gonna bring real, non-Tourist, non-Catheter Changing related jobs to their particular county.

Been doing it since at least the 90s.

Whenever the Chamber of Commerce starts bragging about an expanded college or new hospital as the first thing when it comes to jobs, you know it's bullshit.

The True shit is a Massive Insurance/Bank Back Office, huge R&D Facility, engine parts fabrication, etc.

"We added another $20M wing to Dirtwater Community College to teach Interpretive Dance and Peace and Security Studies Departments, and created 10 temporary year-by-year contract jobs for Social Science PhDs as well as a new landscaping position"


In the UK, some communities succeeded in revitalizing their economies via 'coordinated localism'.

Whereby, they would created locally owned/controlled anchor industries that would contract with only other locally owned and operated firms or firms in other such communities. Big corps would be cut out.

It actually seemed to work.

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