patrick.net

GNL says

Eman

Did you start out like this? If so, how did you manage rent collection and maintenance?

No, I started out buying REO’s, but got wise quickly and learned how to buy properties at the courthouse steps for pennies on the dollar. Then rehab, rent it out, refinance, rinse and repeat. My dad is a GC so it’s a walk in the park.

One of Patneters, with an open-mind, joined me on this venture, and we bought 6 properties together. All financed under his name. I didn’t have a job so bank wouldn’t lend to me. They’ve gained over $2M in equity and cash-flowed over $4k/month, not including principal pay down, etc… Each of us invested $150k in these 6 properties. He didn’t want to stick around to refinance and get the cash out of these properties. Retired at 40 and moved to Brazil with a young Brazilian wife. Patrick, mell and a few other Patneters know and met him in person.

When he retired in 2013 and moved to Brazil, I was approached by a smart and wealthy individual who sold his startup company and has retired since 2000 at the age of 30. He was introduced to me through an acquaintance. I showed him what I did. He said it’s not “scalable” and wanted something that can scale. That was when we got into apartment investing. He chose the San Jose State University market as it’s “recession proof”. We also explored the Fresno State University and Easy Bay University markets, but decided to stay “local” and expand in this market. With his net worth, financing was a walk in the park as banks lend money to people who don’t need money. The rest is history.

HeadSet says

"Through a combination of bank and private debt." Let me translate - "with mom and dad giving me money for the down payment and then cosigning the mortgage."

I don’t see anything wrong with this. Parents would love to help their kids out when they’re starting out….at least in my culture. I made this offer to all nieces and nephews on both sides of the family. Come to us if they ever need money for their ideas.

Eman says

HeadSet says

"Through a combination of bank and private debt." Let me translate - "with mom and dad giving me money for the down payment and then cosigning the mortgage."

I don’t see anything wrong with this. Parents would love to help their kids out when they’re starting out….at least in my culture. I made this offer to all nieces and nephews on both sides of the family. Come to us if they ever need money for their ideas.

That ain't the point, spread your silver spoons all you like. Just do not have the kids claiming they are self-made individuals and investment geniuses.

HeadSet says

Eman says

HeadSet says

"Through a combination of bank and private debt." Let me translate - "with mom and dad giving me money for the down payment and then cosigning the mortgage."

I don’t see anything wrong with this. Parents would love to help their kids out when they’re starting out….at least in my culture. I made this offer to all nieces and nephews on both sides of the family. Come to us if they ever need money for their ideas.

That ain't the point, spread your silver spoons all you like. Just do not have the kids claiming they are self-made individuals and investment geniuses.

I guess we don’t share the same point of view. If a kid is unmotivated, he’ll burn all of the money his parents give to him or his inheritance.

To get started, he can either borrow money from an investor for a down payment, who will likely want a big cut of the equity, and borrow a hard money loan with high interest rate and pay points. Borrowing from acquaintances, or parents, provides a little more buffer and some safety net. I don’t see anything wrong with that.

At the end of the day, we don’t know how he financed the deal. It was all an assumption. I’d rather give the kid the benefits of the doubt than the naysayers.

Got to have a positive attitude. That + hard work can conquer any goal.

Why Blackstone's $69B Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead For Real Estate

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/why-blackstone-s--69b-property-fund-is-signaling-pain-ahead-for-real-estate-70916.html

DD214 says

Why Blackstone's $69B Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead For Real Estate

Blackstone is at $82 and is down 42% from its all time and 52 week high. Looks like it has more room to drop to early 2020 levels which is around $62 a share.

.

ad says

Blackstone is at $82 and is down 42% from its all time and 52 week high.

Is that all? Sheesh.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Blackstone is at $82 and is down 42% from its all time and 52 week high.

Is that all? Sheesh.

I checked MSN Finance, and Wall Street analysts forecast $100 in 12 months for Blackstone. Analysts hype the price of stocks like Blackstone.

I would not be surprised if Blackstone reaches $60 (i.e., early 2020 price levels) which would mean the stock drops 58% from its all time high and 52 week high.

.

Eman says

My dad is a GC so it’s a walk in the park.

Don't let out any trade secrets! Making more sense now. So, I'm assuming you're partnering with him on the flips.

ad says

I checked MSN Finance, and Wall Street analysts forecast $100 in 12 months for Blackstone. Analysts hype the price of stocks like Blackstone.

I would not be surprised if Blackstone reaches $60 (i.e., early 2020 price levels) which would mean the stock drops 58% from its all time high and 52 week high.

Hmmm. You may be right about the $60.

Considering that the prices (values?) of stuff are set in the marketplace, I wonder in a world with choices who'd pay $60 or even one dollar to invest in something that limits redemptions.

It's not like they're the only real estate hedge fund in the world.

EBGuy says

Eman says

My dad is a GC so it’s a walk in the park.

Don't let out any trade secrets! Making more sense now. So, I'm assuming you're partnering with him on the flips.

@EBGuy, actually no. I have a flip partner. A young 31-year old hustler. He handles all the deal sourcing and rehabs. I’m mainly an equity investor. I only get involved in the initial design and relayout of the flip. Then I have the final say on accepting the offers. I think he owns 12 rentals now, all by himself. They’re all in the East Bay.

I also have a multifamily partner where we handle a lot of our repairs and maintenance stuff. We have a full-time handyman who handles all the small stuff. For big rehabs, we use his GC. I don’t want to get my family involved in these things.

@EBGuy, my dad did help to rehab 3 out of 6 units I co-own with pkennedy at cost. The other 3, pkennedy and I rehabbed ourselves. My dad rehabbed all my personal units.

What I’ve learned is that once a unit is fully rehabbed, it’s less hassle and the turnover time is much quicker. I send in my handyman to handle the cleaning, paint touch-ups, minor repairs and swap out new door lock, and voila, they’re done within 2-4 days.

@EBGuy and @Patrick,

pkennedy will be in town next week for a few days, 12/12 - 12/15. Let us know if you guys want to meet up on 12/13 or 12/14. I’m unemployed so my schedule is flexible.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuyers-underwater-mortgage-203707947.html

270,000 homebuyers who bought in 2022 are underwater on their mortgage

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuyers-underwater-mortgage-203707947.html

270,000 homebuyers who bought in 2022 are underwater on their mortgage

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

https://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2022/12/07/housing-market-forecast-2023.html

Here's what economists are predicting for the US housing market in 2023

Redfin Corp. this week predicted home prices will fall for the first time since 2011 — but at a modest 4% nationally. Zillow Group Inc. is anticipating home prices to remain flat nationally next year, while Realtor.com has among the more positive predictions, with home prices appreciating 5.4% across the U.S. in 2023.

Fannie Mae is predicting total existing home sales will be 3.9 million in 2023 and prices will fall 1.5%. Meanwhile, Capital Economics is predicting U.S. home prices will fall 8% by mid-2023 and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) is forecasting a 5.5% decline in home prices.

zzyzzx says

https://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2022/12/07/housing-market-forecast-2023.html

Here's what economists are predicting for the US housing market in 2023

Redfin Corp. this week predicted home prices will fall for the first time since 2011 — but at a modest 4% nationally. Zillow Group Inc. is anticipating home prices to remain flat nationally next year, while Realtor.com has among the more positive predictions, with home prices appreciating 5.4% across the U.S. in 2023.

Fannie Mae is predicting total existing home sales will be 3.9 million in 2023 and prices will fall 1.5%. Meanwhile, Capital Economics is predicting U.S. home prices will fall 8% by mid-2023 and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) is forecasting a 5.5% decline in home prices.

Historically speaking, which one of these prognosticators has been more correct?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-qualifying-rate-canada-may-184048144.html

Mortgage-Qualifying Rate in Canada May Top 8% After Latest Central Bank Hike

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went up $700 because of the jump. This accounts for our homestead exemption.

My question is, is this right? It seems insane that homebuyers aren’t told their payments will jump exponentially year one. We were already at the top of our budget, and going from $3,500/month to nearly $5k for the next year is brutal. Once the escrow is paid back it will be around $4.1k, but that is still way more than we ever expected, although there was an expectation of some increase. I appreciate any insight that can be offered.

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went up $700 because of the jump. This accounts for our homestead exemption.

My question is, is this right? It seems insane that homebuyers aren’t told their payments will jump exponentially year one. We were already at the top of our budget, and going from $3...

If they go equity negative...jingle mail all the way.

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 53% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 8%

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/realtorcom-reports-weekly-active_8.html

2023 Housing Forecasts

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/2023-housing-forecasts.html

GNL says

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went up $700 because of the jump. This accounts for our homestead exemption.

My question is, is this right? It seems insane that homebuyers aren’t told their payments will j...

He sounded like a CA 1978 Prop 13 victim.

Blue says

GNL says

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went up $700 because of the jump. This accounts for our homestead exemption.

My que...

Oh, so that's what happens? So the longer the seller has owned the home, the larger the tax jolt will be to the buyer, correct? This is because the new tax amount will be calculated on the price the buyer pays vs. the price the seller originally paid?

Yes, tax amount get rest at next purchase price. CA 1978 prop 13 is a Ponzi scheme. Not only outside the CA but too many insiders are not aware of this crap until you get into the trap. Like any Ponzi scheme, the longer you stay your tax rate goes south even though you receive gov service like everyone else. Since property tax rate is effectively the lowest for many in the country, CA has to push every tax rate to the roof to compensate the difference. This topic really upset the people who pay none to nothing tax to their multi million dollar shacks while they enjoy the gains.

GNL says

Blue says

GNL says

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went ...

The bigger issue is he paid $635K for a house with a market value assessment of $350k. I wonder if that was what the previous county assessment was or if that was what the appraisal was. If county assessment, then ok, what the fuck did he think was going to happen. It’s 1% of sale price plus .xx based on all the local add-ons and bullshit bonds and such.

https://news.yahoo.com/housing-prices-drop-across-california-225800701.html

Housing prices drop across California’s Bay Area

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rh-ceo-the-housing-market-is-collapsing-133624128.html

RH CEO: 'The housing market is collapsing'

Nooooooooooo! Sob, Sob!

zzyzzx says

RH CEO: 'The housing market is collapsing'

It's not collapsing. Cities are. High end city sales are going to drag down median national prices big time. This is an exodus "crash" not a housing crash overall. The house we're planning on building in Chicago would be $2-3M. We're doing it for $500k out in the country. Better schools. No traffic. Local CSA's, butchers and other products that we don't pay a markup at Target for. Work from home or just drive.

Cities are toast. The people are younger for the party or too old and living on government income. Demographically most cities are shit. 30-50 year olds who have the money and spend it, have kids, don't want to live in cities. Defund the police. Great. Let's live in a crime filled hellhole on tiny lots, litter, piss and shit, etc. There's no reason to live in cities anymore.

You also mentally cannot live in a liberal city if you have any morals. I get some people stay because of family, but who cares? The block I lived on in Chicago we knew NOBODY. There's no community. 100+ units on the block. I have people in my town now come up to me like they know me and I'm like who the fuck is that? In a positive way. Everyone is nice outside of the occasional hill billy tool at the local bars. AKA the drunks that can't control it, but that's worse in the city and may result in a bullet wound.

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-supply-record-increase-homes-linger/

Housing Market Update: Supply Posts Record Increase As Homes Linger on the Market


Among the 50 most populous U.S. metros, pending sales fell the most from a year earlier in Las Vegas (-65.4%), Austin (-60.7%), Phoenix (-56.8%), Jacksonville, FL (-55.6%) and Portland, OR (-53.5%).

Months of supply—a measure of the balance between supply and demand, calculated by dividing the number of active listings by closed sales—was 3.9 months

Correction is needed for good reason particularly in high price areas. For the rest, crashing is bad for good people who want to keep their roof but good for flippers who take advantage of crazy Biden inflation.

Uhhhhhhh, 3.9 months of supply is crashing?????

In another era that would be booming. We're just used to having multiple offers on listing day.

WookieMan says

The house we're planning on building...

It seems you've been planning on building this house for the last 2 years now. What's going on? Your wife makes over $300K? Seems you could easily have gotten it started even if you do have mortgage payments on another house.

Misc says

Uhhhhhhh, 3.9 months of supply is crashing?????

It's normalizing.

"It's just a lot of uncertainty right now. But one thing I'm certain of : The housing market is collapsing at a level I haven't seen since 2008. I haven't seen this kind of drop since 2008."- Gary Friedman, CEO, Restoration Hardware, November 9, 2022

zzyzzx says

It's normalizing.

LOL! it's un-insane-ating.