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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   72,498 views  1,815 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.



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1490   GNL   2022 Nov 23, 10:54am  

Eman says

Booger says







To counter your meme, here’s a “real expert” suggests housing prices could rise in 2023. 😂

NAR Economist Lawrence Yun suggests national prices could rise 1% next year, breaking from the pack of projections suggesting a freefall.

https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/nar-economist-housing-prices-rise

An NAR cheerleader is a "Real Expert"?
1491   HeadSet   2022 Nov 23, 11:38am  

GNL says

An NAR cheerleader is a "Real Expert"?

I am pretty sure that claiming Yun as an expert is tongue-in-cheek. Lawrence Yun is a long-time butt of jokes on Patrick.net.
1492   Blue   2022 Nov 23, 11:41am  

GNL says


Eman says


Booger says







To counter your meme, here’s a “real expert” suggests housing prices could rise in 2023. 😂

NAR Economist Lawrence Yun suggests national prices could rise 1% next year, breaking from the pack of projections suggesting a freefall.

https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/nar-economist-housing-prices-rise


An NAR cheerleader is a "Real Expert"?


Not sure what happens but at some point it stops going down except for few expensive areas as the inflation that is backed by corrupt gov is not going to slowing down any time soon.
1493   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Nov 23, 1:29pm  

Eman says

this chart

I have tried to chart asset values/prices like that.

Yes, we can do it and spin a narrative.

The problem I have with the approach is the vertical axis units is fiat currency. The value / purchasing power of the fiat is not constant and should not be taken for granted.

While the absolute (nominal) values in the chart may be accurate, if we are not careful our conclusions may be misleading.
1494   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Nov 24, 3:07pm  

11/11/2022 Price change $775,000 (-1.9%)$294/sqft

9/23/2022 Price change $790,000 (-11.2%)$300/sqft

9/2/2022 Price change $889,500 (-1.1%)$338/sqft

8/4/2022 Price change $899,000 (-3.3%)$342/sqft

7/11/2022 Listed for sale $929,500 $353/sqft

1495   Ceffer   2022 Nov 24, 5:03pm  

I saw one house in Santa Cruz (still absurdly high) that had a 500,000 dollar reduction. It was about 2500 sq. ft close to the beach.
1498   Booger   2022 Nov 25, 5:46pm  

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2022/11/22/jacksonville-housing-market-sees-big-slowdown-home-purchases-fall-through-at-highest-rate-in-nation/

Jacksonville housing market sees big slowdown, home purchases fall through at highest rate in nation
1499   ad   2022 Nov 25, 6:34pm  

Booger says

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2022/11/22/jacksonville-housing-market-sees-big-slowdown-home-purchases-fall-through-at-highest-rate-in-nation/

Jacksonville housing market sees big slowdown, home purchases fall through at highest rate in nation


Its about affordability where housing costs (principal+interest+taxes+insurance+hoa fees) is not more than about 36% of household income.

I expect housing will over-correct and there will be bloodshed which means housing affordability will be in a lot better circumstance.

.
1500   cisTits   2022 Nov 25, 6:54pm  

ad says

Its about affordability where housing costs (principal+interest+taxes+insurance+hoa fees) is not more than about 36% of household income.

I expect housing will over-correct and there will be bloodshed which means housing affordability will be in a lot better circumstance.


By what measures of income? In the Bay Area, housing would have to fall over 50% for middle income folks to ge able to achieve that.
1501   cisTits   2022 Nov 25, 7:24pm  

New data from Redfin confirms that Investors are running scared from the US Housing Market. In particular, they are running scared from Jerome Powell.

Redfin's report revealed a massive 30% Decline in Investor Home Purchases in Q3 2022 compared to the previous year. Excluding the initial stages of the pandemic, that was the largest decline in Investor buying since the last Housing Crash started in 2006.

In especially hard-hit metros such as Phoenix, Portland, and Las Vegas, Investor Purchases declined by more than 45% YoY. Marking a definitive end to the pandemic era of Investor Housing Market Domination.

What's amazing is how quickly this transition took place. Only six to nine months ago, the prevailing narrative across the US Housing Market was that Investors, particularly big Wall Street Landlords, were going to continue to gobble up homes forever. But then suddenly, they stopped. What happened?


https://www.reventure.app/blog/jerome-powell-just-kicked-investors-out-of-the-housing-market

Yes indeedy Oh Housing Experts of PatNet! WTF happened?

Jerome Powell is what happened. Starting in March 2022, the Powell-led Federal Reserve began increasing short-term Interest Rates. First by a little. Then by a lot. By October 2022 the Federal Funds Rate (the rate set by Powell and the Fed) was up to 3.1%.

This rapid escalation in Fed Funds Rate caused long-term interest rates to spike, pushing the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate up to 6.9%. The highest level in over two decades.


THAT Oh Housing Experts of PatNet is WTF happened. And earlier this year you said it wouldn't and anyone who pointed out the likelihood of it happening contrary to your wrong, dogmatic bullshit was told they didn't know WTF they were talking about.

And you know who you are even if I can not mention you directly.
1502   richwicks   2022 Nov 25, 7:38pm  

cisTits says

New data from Redfin confirms that Investors are running scared


And this is the problem. There's "investors".
1503   ad   2022 Nov 25, 7:50pm  

richwicks says


cisTits says

New data from Redfin confirms that Investors are running scared

And this is the problem. There's "investors".


True, over the last 22 years housing has become more of a speculative asset. Some of this is the home equity line of credit (HELOC) as home owners view their home equity as an investment or asset. Some use the HELOC money to invest in the stock market.
1504   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Nov 26, 4:20am  

Booger says

Jacksonville housing market sees big slowdown, home purchases fall through at highest rate in nation

Race and Hispanic Origin
White alone, percent - 56.3%
Black or African American alone, percent - 30.9%
1505   gabbar   2022 Nov 26, 5:56am  

I noticed that real estate agents give buyers a printed boiler plate home purchase agreement to complete and sign. Do they have an editable version of this agreement that they choose not to provide to buyers?
1506   Eman   2022 Nov 26, 2:06pm  

If you think it’s possible, it’s possible. If you think it’s impossible, keep your W2 and help build other people’s dreams.

It’s always a great time to buy or sell “for the right price.” We’re always buyers and sellers “for the right price.” Retailers are the problem, not investors. Let that sink in.

1507   ad   2022 Nov 26, 3:55pm  

gabbar says


I noticed that real estate agents give buyers a printed boiler plate home purchase agreement to complete and sign. Do they have an editable version of this agreement that they choose not to provide to buyers?


If its the standard form required by HUD, you can modify parts of it based on agreement of both parties.

.
1508   Eman   2022 Nov 26, 5:09pm  

ad says

richwicks says



cisTits says

New data from Redfin confirms that Investors are running scared

And this is the problem. There's "investors".


True, over the last 22 years housing has become more of a speculative asset. Some of this is the home equity line of credit (HELOC) as home owners view their home equity as an investment or asset. Some use the HELOC money to invest in the stock market.


This is not entire correct. Housing was on fire sale in late 2000’s and early 2010’s. Fortunes are made during recessions, or shall I say wealth transfer? A ton of money from the world was transferred here to buy real estate during those years.

HELOC is a double-edged sword. Some people use their HELOC to start-up their companies while others use it to buy liabilities. It’s not all bad…
1509   ad   2022 Nov 26, 7:54pm  

Eman says

Housing was on fire sale in late 2000’s and early 2010’s.


Look at the rate of increase for housing prices since the late 1990s. Yes, California has a lot of foreign buyers, as well as Miami Beach.



.
1510   Eman   2022 Nov 26, 11:46pm  

ad says

Eman says


Housing was on fire sale in late 2000’s and early 2010’s.


Look at the rate of increase for housing prices since the late 1990s. Yes, California has a lot of foreign buyers, as well as Miami Beach.




.

I used to study these housing charts and data. That was all I saw in my sleep. I was able to recognize 2009 was the bottom of the housing market and started buying. Then I decided to quit my W2 in late 2009 to focus on real estate investing full-time. Everyone thought I was crazy. I documented my journey in the early years here along with iwog. Once I switched to buying apartments in 2013, I started to share this journey on Biggerpockets.

Looking back, it’s like hitting stock options from a start-up company. Can’t make this kind of money working my W2 engineering job for the rest of my life. I’ll have residual income for life….like collecting dividends without paying taxes. Work hard for a few years and then sit back and enjoy the fruit of our labor for decades to come. What a great deal. This reminds me of what Gary Keller, co-founder of Keller Williams said “Anyone can do it, but not everyone will…will you? The journey was foggy at the beginning, but it’s crystal clear once you’re on the other side looking back.

I’ve been able to pay it forward and have helped a few individuals become successful in real estate investing. One individual, who has become wildly successful, calls himself King Khang. Go to YouTube and type in Wholesale to Millions. He has close to 500k subscribers on YouTube and over 3M subscribers on TikTok. A HS dropout who now makes $4M/year. Others are also doing well, but they’re not on social media like him. It’s rewarding to see.
1511   gabbar   2022 Nov 27, 2:26am  

How Shady Real Estate Agents Cheat

KATE SWANSON AUG 24, 2022

Kate Swanson has been a property investor for the last 20 years and has moved houses (and continents) several times herself in that time.

There are plenty of good, honest real estate agents. But every industry has its share of shonky practitioners.

Mostly Good, Some Bad

I've had many complaints from realtors about this article! They claim that all realtors are Honest Johns and have their customers' best interests at heart.

Let me make this clear: this is not an attack on the real estate industry.

There are plenty of good, honest real estate agents. But every industry has its share of shonky practitioners—unfortunately, that's just human nature. Take any large group of people, and you'll find a percentage who are prepared to twist the rules to their own advantage. And as we all know, the most fresh-faced, charming people can also be the most crooked, so we can't assume the nice ones are really the nice ones!

For most people, their home is the single biggest investment they'll ever make in their lives, so it's worth being aware of the tricks the unprincipled can get up to.

Realtors can make more money selling several houses cheap, than one house at the best price.

Why Shady Realtors Want to Sell Cheap

At the root of the problem is one huge misconception: that you and the realtor have the same goal in mind, which is to sell your property for the maximum price possible. That's simply not true. You want to sell at the highest possible price. The realtor just wants to sell.

You may be wondering, why on earth would a realtor not want the best price? After all, their commission is based on the selling price, so the higher the price, the more their commission.

The answer is simple: speed. If they hold out for the highest price the market can bear, that means more advertisements and more inspections. True, they will get less commission if the price is lower, but they will also have spent much less time and will be able to move on to the next house much faster.

They can sell six under-priced houses in the same time it takes to sell three full-priced houses, and the result will be more commission!

Of course, legally, the realtor has to agree on a figure with you and stick to it: they can't sell the property if you don't agree with the price. But the shady realtor has ways they can work on you, the seller, to persuade you to accept a lower price in the end.

How a Shady Realtor Reduces Your Sell Price

When the realtor comes to see your house, they point out all the good features of your property and names an impressive price.

Once you've signed up, the agent starts showing possible buyers through your home. After every inspection, they call to tell you how it went. To your surprise, they tell you they're disappointed to be getting negative feedback (which, strangely, they either never mentioned—or dismissed as unimportant—on their first visit!).

The first week, they may say some buyers didn't like the décor and would have to repaint the whole house. The second week, they'll mention buyers who felt the kitchen would need replacing. The third week, it might be a worn carpet or a damaged piece of guttering. Alternatively, they might claim they're getting constant comments on one single major flaw, such as the lack of sunlight in the living room or the deck that needs replacing.

They may also say buyers have said what they might pay, e.g., "I'm getting some interest in the low three hundreds", which means people have said they might pay $300,000 to $350,000 for the house. Whatever the range is, it's always substantially under the figure they first quoted. If you express concern, they'll say, "well, you have to bear in mind, they didn't like . . . "(whatever the latest flaw was).

You may have guessed by now that the buyers probably said nothing of the sort, or if they did, it was a casual comment. They're making it up to create doubt in your mind, to undermine your confidence in that impressive price they originally quoted. Week by week, they drip-feed you negative feedback on the property, aiming to lower your expectations. Meanwhile, they're also working on the buyers . . .

Keep an eye out for agents who have a less than ideal moral compass.

"Hooking" the Buyer

It's illegal to quote a price the seller hasn't agreed to—but if the agent is having a private conversation with a potential buyer, and there are no witnesses, it's the agent's word against theirs—so you can't prove anything, and will probably never know anyway.

If your property is for sale at a fixed price, during the inspections, the realtor will be telling buyers you're "very negotiable" (whether you are or not). If your property is up for auction, the agent will be privately naming a price range that's well below what you're hoping to get.

I've caught more than one agent doing this because I love viewing property, so when an acquaintance puts a house up for sale, I just have to go and look. Once, it was an apartment selling for $380,000. I got talking to the agent, and he told me, "If you're interested, I'm sure they'd take an offer of $340,000".

The next time I met my friend, I asked them how it was going. "Not good," she said glumly. "The agent is telling me they're only getting interest in the low $300s. He originally told us we'd easily get over $375,000, so we're really disappointed."

Of course, he's only getting interest in the low $300s if that's what he's telling buyers it's worth!

If you catch your agent out doing this, they'll tell you, "we quote a low price to hook the buyers' interest, then we can negotiate them up from there". I don't know why anyone ever believes this!

Did this house sell for the price promised?

Clinching the Deal

Eventually, you will get an offer for the house, or auction day will arrive, and someone will bid.

Thanks to the agent, it's quite likely the offer or bid will be lower than you expect. When they present it to you, you're quite likely to say so, to which the agent will reply, "oh yes, but do bear in mind that buyers have all been put off by the lack of sunlight (or whatever the problem was)". They'll tell you how you can never be sure what a property is worth upfront, but now it's been "tested in the marketplace".

This is all utter tosh. The property hasn't been "tested in the marketplace" at its true value because the agent has been telling everyone it's worth less than it really is!

I experienced exactly these techniques when I sold my home following my divorce. Years later, I read an exposé of real estate training and dirty tricks written by Neil Jenman, who has founded a group of real estate agents committed to ethical selling practices. I thoroughly recommend his books to anyone buying or selling property. The book that helped me most was Real Estate Mistakes (both Kindle and paperback versions are available). The book was written about the Australian real estate market, but it is equally applicable in the USA. I would recommend anyone buying or selling a property buy it.

I've had several comments from realtors saying, "I'm sorry you had a bad experience", and assuring me how wonderful most real estate agents are. So I should clarify that this article isn't based on one bad experience. Since reading Jenman's books, I've bought and sold several properties, and I have come across those same techniques again and again. Luckily because of my awareness, I've been able to turn them to my advantage, especially when buying. Others are not so lucky.

I do not deny there are good real estate agents out there. But if you embark on selling your home imagining that all agents are angels, you're an idiot!

This article is accurate and true to the best of the author’s knowledge. Content is for informational or entertainment purposes only and does not substitute for personal counsel or professional advice in business, financial, legal, or technical matters.

© 2008 Kate Swanson

https://toughnickel.com/scams-fraud/Realtors-Cheat-Sellers
1512   gabbar   2022 Nov 27, 2:38am  

https://setexasrecord.com/stories/510611498-couple-sues-agent-over-real-estate-deal-gone-bad

A Beaumont couple has filed suit against their real estate agent, his wife and two other corporations, alleging the agent moved into the couple's home but failed to pay for it.

Todd and Dawn Senters claim they entered into a listing agreement with agent Christopher Magliochetti on April 27, 2007, to sell their home at 14403 Red Tailed Hawn Lane in Houston.

According to the complaint filed Aug. 21 in Jefferson County District Court, the Senters were asking $190,500 for the house, but amended the listing to $185,000 on July 26, 2007, after Magliochetti and his wife Kimber signed a contract to purchase the home themselves.

The Magliochettis were supposed to make an earnest money deposit of $1,000, but the Senters claim they never received the money from defendant First American Title Co. Later, they discovered that the Magliochettis had never paid the earnest money deposit, according to the complaint.

In addition, closing papers were signed, but the Senters never received any money for the sale of their house, the complaint says.

"Although no funds were ever received by the Plaintiffs, the Defendants, Christopher and Kimber Magliochetti, were furnished keys to the residence by Defendants, First American Title Company and/or Re by the Bay, and had already moved their possessions into the Plaintiffs' home," the suit states.

The Senters claim they granted the Magliochettis a residential lease that allowed them to remain in the Senters' home until they could pay for it.

After a few months, the Senters and the Magliochettis entered into a second contract to purchase the home, but, again, the funds did not come through, according to the complaint.

"When a third contract was executed and still no funds were received, the Magliochettis finally moved out in April, 2009, two years from the date of the original listing," the suit states.

The Senters are seeking treble and discretionary damages, plus attorneys' fees, costs and other relief the court deems just.

They will be represented by Brandon P. Monk of The Monk Law Firm in Port Arthur.

The case has been assigned to Judge Milton Shuffield, 136th District Court.

Jefferson County District Court case number: D184-758.
1513   Booger   2022 Nov 27, 4:15am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quick-enter-market-institutional-investors-175939768.html

Quick To Enter the Market, Institutional Investors Now Shedding Single-Family Home Rentals
1514   porkchopexpress   2022 Nov 27, 5:07am  

Eman says


ad says


Eman says


Housing was on fire sale in late 2000’s and early 2010’s.


Look at the rate of increase for housing prices since the late 1990s. Yes, California has a lot of foreign buyers, as well as Miami Beach.





.


I used to study these housing charts and data. That was all I saw in my sleep. I was able to recognize 2009 was the bottom of the housing market and started buying. Then I decided to quit my W2 in...

This is awesome, man. I'm inspired by your story. I've only ever had a W2 job and it's been the safest option for me as I've been the only one supporting both my wife and kids. Making that transition to my own biz just seemed scary but that's the risk-reward decision that needs to be made. I've been fortunate that I have a very high-paying career/job, but no doubt would I love to have a bunch of apartments making me more without working all the time. I tried convincing my wife to drive a real estate biz on the side since she doesn't work, but she has no interest.

Kudos to you for taking the risk and striking at one of the best times in history. That's one of the many beauties of this country.
1515   zzyzzx   2022 Nov 28, 11:58am  

https://www.axios.com/2022/11/28/home-prices-real-estate-housing

"Collapse" in home prices is coming, experts say
1516   Blue   2022 Nov 28, 12:33pm  

zzyzzx says


https://www.axios.com/2022/11/28/home-prices-real-estate-housing

"Collapse" in home prices is coming, experts say

We all know by now that experts are always wrong. I would like to see out of control crazy Biden inflation factored in the price predictions before it make sense.
1517   gabbar   2022 Nov 28, 12:49pm  

Blue says

"Collapse" in home prices is coming, experts say

Collapse, if and when it occurs, will happen because it will be what they want. There will come a point when people will say f u to mortgage payments.
1518   ad   2022 Nov 28, 6:19pm  

gabbar says

Collapse, if and when it occurs, will happen because it will be what they want. There will come a point when people will say f u to mortgage payments.


That happened a lot in 2007 to 2012. A lot of owners stopped paying and refused to move out of the homes.
1519   Eman   2022 Nov 28, 7:41pm  

porkchopexpress says

This is awesome, man. I'm inspired by your story. I've only ever ...


Real estate is not for everyone. Find what your wife likes to do and have her pursue that. Then it’d be a hobby making money activity.

What I’ve learned is that, not taking risk is also making a bet. You don’t get to live your full potential. You have no safety net, your wife is not working, so it’s harder to take on risk.

I’ve always been a dreamer. I’ve been witnessing each dream came true at a time. It’s fulfilling. At this point, getting to a 9-figure net worth seems achievable and a 10-figure net worth is doable although we’re nowhere near there. It’s simply crazy to think about it for a guy who came to this country at the age of 16 without speaking the language. 😂
1520   Eman   2022 Nov 28, 7:48pm  

ad says

gabbar says


Collapse, if and when it occurs, will happen because it will be what they want. There will come a point when people will say f u to mortgage payments.


That happened a lot in 2007 to 2012. A lot of owners stopped paying and refused to move out of the homes.

I don’t know about other markets, but it was a mistake to walk away from their homes in MY market, the SF Bay Area. I was buying condos at $150-$160k each. These were going for $400-$450k at the peak of the market. Now, they’re selling for $600-$650k each. Rents went from $1.2k/mo then to $2.4k-$2.7k/mo now.

The same with SFH where value dropped from $750-$800k to $450k, and now they’re worth $1.4-$1.5M. SFH in working class neighborhoods dropped from $650k to $250k. Now, they’re going for $800-$850k. each.

4plexes dropped from $1.2-$1.25M to $800-$825k. They’re now $1.9-$2M each. 🤯

We’re all making bets. Some are more lucky than others. Not making bet is also making a bet. 😅
1521   REpro   2022 Nov 28, 8:02pm  

Soon correction be over. Folks gets inflation adjusted increase in wages.
Purchase power will overcome higher interes rates and housing market will go back on track.
Only persist inflation can hold it.
1522   ad   2022 Nov 28, 9:33pm  

REpro says

Soon correction be over. Folks gets inflation adjusted increase in wages.
Purchase power will overcome higher interes rates and housing market will go back on track.
Only persist inflation can hold it.


Yeah I saw VA disability is going up about 8.7%, and I believe Social Security is also. True, as pensioners are going to have more buying power in 2023 if inflation continues to trend down.

12 month CPI is around 7.7% now, down from its recent peak of 9.1% around July 2022.

,
1523   HeadSet   2022 Nov 29, 8:21am  

ad says

Yeah I saw VA disability is going up about 8.7%, and I believe Social Security is also. True, as pensioners are going to have more buying power in 2023 if inflation continues to trend down.

True, that may affect the cost of lower end cars, but people relying on pensions are not in the market for high priced homes.
1526   GNL   2022 Nov 29, 11:42am  

Any predictions for the 2023 spring market?
1527   Ceffer   2022 Nov 29, 12:07pm  

In Santa Cruz, things are in an intermediate stage. Houses coming on the market at seller demand excess prices, not selling, inventory increasing and occasional break throughs of price drops for those who actually want or need to sell. They aren't always stating price reductions.

One house we walk by that has been on market for a while now had hundreds of thousands drop, but never stated it on the listing. Irrational price and equity fantasy exuberance seems to be slowly chipping away. It'll be interesting to see how things sort out by Feb. 2023.
1528   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2022 Nov 29, 7:47pm  

GNL says

Any predictions for the 2023 spring market?


usually goes up in spring.

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