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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   73,231 views  1,822 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.



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1536   GNL   2022 Dec 3, 12:27pm  

@Eman

Did you start out like this? If so, how did you manage rent collection and maintenance?
1537   🎂 WookieMan   2022 Dec 3, 12:40pm  

Eman says

For anyone who thinks it’s not possible, this 19 year old kid is doing it in his Midwest market in the current market conditions. He’s inspired by people, who have been there, done that, and took action. His goal is 250 units. 19 years old and bought a 4-plex.







Slum lord and lipstick on a pig. I feel for the people that end up renting those units. Gotta learn somehow I guess.
1538   🎂 WookieMan   2022 Dec 3, 12:44pm  

Those decks are half rotted as well. No pavement for parking? That for sure is ghetto special. I hope he doesn't hit his goal because that's 250 miserable tenants with what I'm looking at. Just being honest
1539   stereotomy   2022 Dec 3, 1:00pm  

This is how they corrupt the young'uns. Free money for exploiting your fellow (to be honest, a mouth-breathing section-8 renter) human. Just like cops who only see the worst of humanity, they eventually see their "customers" as subhuman trash
1540   HeadSet   2022 Dec 3, 1:44pm  

"Through a combination of bank and private debt." Let me translate - "with mom and dad giving me money for the down payment and then cosigning the mortgage."
1541   🎂 WookieMan   2022 Dec 3, 1:49pm  

stereotomy says

This is how they corrupt the young'uns. Free money for exploiting your fellow (to be honest, a mouth-breathing section-8 renter) human. Just like cops who only see the worst of humanity, they eventually see their "customers" as subhuman trash

We never had an issue with section 8 tenants. I think that's a huge misnomer about them. They're on the streets if they don't keep their voucher. Some of the best tenants we had. On their best behavior. We had to keep the units ABOVE building code for Section 8 versus market rate tenants, so not slum lords. We weren't in NIMBY land though. They're the ones that bitch about section 8 the most and have no clue about it.
1542   HeadSet   2022 Dec 3, 2:05pm  

WookieMan says

We never had an issue with section 8 tenants. I think that's a huge misnomer about them. They're on the streets if they don't keep their voucher. Some of the best tenants we had. On their best behavior.

Around here and in Oklahoma, I could tell the Section 8 houses in a neighborhood by the unkempt lawns, broken tricycles lying about, etc. When I had rental property in VA, I was approached several times to do Section 8. I refused, since my rentals were all single-family homes in nice workers/jr management type areas. I did not want to insert a welfare household next door to hard working people paying off a mortgage.
1543   GNL   2022 Dec 3, 3:01pm  

How about a strategy of buying enough rentals in a nice neighborhood and rent to section 8. Then once you've pulled the values down enough, buy a shit more houses and then end all section 8 rentals and bring the neighborhood values back?
1544   cisTits   2022 Dec 3, 3:39pm  

GNL says

How about a strategy of buying enough rentals in a nice neighborhood and rent to section 8


Got news for you: We are all going to be on Section 8. And you will like it.

#GoGreatReset
1545   Eman   2022 Dec 3, 6:08pm  

GNL says

Eman

Did you start out like this? If so, how did you manage rent collection and maintenance?

No, I started out buying REO’s, but got wise quickly and learned how to buy properties at the courthouse steps for pennies on the dollar. Then rehab, rent it out, refinance, rinse and repeat. My dad is a GC so it’s a walk in the park.

One of Patneters, with an open-mind, joined me on this venture, and we bought 6 properties together. All financed under his name. I didn’t have a job so bank wouldn’t lend to me. They’ve gained over $2M in equity and cash-flowed over $4k/month, not including principal pay down, etc… Each of us invested $150k in these 6 properties. He didn’t want to stick around to refinance and get the cash out of these properties. Retired at 40 and moved to Brazil with a young Brazilian wife. Patrick, mell and a few other Patneters know and met him in person.

When he retired in 2013 and moved to Brazil, I was approached by a smart and wealthy individual who sold his startup company and has retired since 2000 at the age of 30. He was introduced to me through an acquaintance. I showed him what I did. He said it’s not “scalable” and wanted something that can scale. That was when we got into apartment investing. He chose the San Jose State University market as it’s “recession proof”. We also explored the Fresno State University and Easy Bay University markets, but decided to stay “local” and expand in this market. With his net worth, financing was a walk in the park as banks lend money to people who don’t need money. The rest is history.
1546   Eman   2022 Dec 3, 6:12pm  

HeadSet says

"Through a combination of bank and private debt." Let me translate - "with mom and dad giving me money for the down payment and then cosigning the mortgage."

I don’t see anything wrong with this. Parents would love to help their kids out when they’re starting out….at least in my culture. I made this offer to all nieces and nephews on both sides of the family. Come to us if they ever need money for their ideas.
1547   HeadSet   2022 Dec 3, 6:27pm  

Eman says

HeadSet says


"Through a combination of bank and private debt." Let me translate - "with mom and dad giving me money for the down payment and then cosigning the mortgage."

I don’t see anything wrong with this. Parents would love to help their kids out when they’re starting out….at least in my culture. I made this offer to all nieces and nephews on both sides of the family. Come to us if they ever need money for their ideas.

That ain't the point, spread your silver spoons all you like. Just do not have the kids claiming they are self-made individuals and investment geniuses.
1548   Eman   2022 Dec 3, 7:31pm  

HeadSet says

Eman says


HeadSet says



"Through a combination of bank and private debt." Let me translate - "with mom and dad giving me money for the down payment and then cosigning the mortgage."

I don’t see anything wrong with this. Parents would love to help their kids out when they’re starting out….at least in my culture. I made this offer to all nieces and nephews on both sides of the family. Come to us if they ever need money for their ideas.


That ain't the point, spread your silver spoons all you like. Just do not have the kids claiming they are self-made individuals and investment geniuses.

I guess we don’t share the same point of view. If a kid is unmotivated, he’ll burn all of the money his parents give to him or his inheritance.

To get started, he can either borrow money from an investor for a down payment, who will likely want a big cut of the equity, and borrow a hard money loan with high interest rate and pay points. Borrowing from acquaintances, or parents, provides a little more buffer and some safety net. I don’t see anything wrong with that.

At the end of the day, we don’t know how he financed the deal. It was all an assumption. I’d rather give the kid the benefits of the doubt than the naysayers.
1549   GNL   2022 Dec 3, 7:55pm  

Got to have a positive attitude. That + hard work can conquer any goal.
1550   DD214   2022 Dec 5, 4:06am  

Why Blackstone's $69B Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead For Real Estate

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/why-blackstone-s--69b-property-fund-is-signaling-pain-ahead-for-real-estate-70916.html
1552   ad   2022 Dec 5, 12:50pm  

DD214 says

Why Blackstone's $69B Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead For Real Estate


Blackstone is at $82 and is down 42% from its all time and 52 week high. Looks like it has more room to drop to early 2020 levels which is around $62 a share.

.
1553   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Dec 5, 5:12pm  

ad says

Blackstone is at $82 and is down 42% from its all time and 52 week high.

Is that all? Sheesh.
1554   ad   2022 Dec 5, 6:32pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Blackstone is at $82 and is down 42% from its all time and 52 week high.

Is that all? Sheesh.


I checked MSN Finance, and Wall Street analysts forecast $100 in 12 months for Blackstone. Analysts hype the price of stocks like Blackstone.

I would not be surprised if Blackstone reaches $60 (i.e., early 2020 price levels) which would mean the stock drops 58% from its all time high and 52 week high.

.
1555   EBGuy   2022 Dec 5, 6:50pm  

Eman says

My dad is a GC so it’s a walk in the park.

Don't let out any trade secrets! Making more sense now. So, I'm assuming you're partnering with him on the flips.
1556   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Dec 6, 8:02am  

ad says

I checked MSN Finance, and Wall Street analysts forecast $100 in 12 months for Blackstone. Analysts hype the price of stocks like Blackstone.

I would not be surprised if Blackstone reaches $60 (i.e., early 2020 price levels) which would mean the stock drops 58% from its all time high and 52 week high.

Hmmm. You may be right about the $60.

Considering that the prices (values?) of stuff are set in the marketplace, I wonder in a world with choices who'd pay $60 or even one dollar to invest in something that limits redemptions.

It's not like they're the only real estate hedge fund in the world.
1557   Eman   2022 Dec 6, 2:50pm  

EBGuy says

Eman says


My dad is a GC so it’s a walk in the park.

Don't let out any trade secrets! Making more sense now. So, I'm assuming you're partnering with him on the flips.

@EBGuy, actually no. I have a flip partner. A young 31-year old hustler. He handles all the deal sourcing and rehabs. I’m mainly an equity investor. I only get involved in the initial design and relayout of the flip. Then I have the final say on accepting the offers. I think he owns 12 rentals now, all by himself. They’re all in the East Bay.

I also have a multifamily partner where we handle a lot of our repairs and maintenance stuff. We have a full-time handyman who handles all the small stuff. For big rehabs, we use his GC. I don’t want to get my family involved in these things.
1558   Eman   2022 Dec 6, 2:55pm  

@EBGuy, my dad did help to rehab 3 out of 6 units I co-own with pkennedy at cost. The other 3, pkennedy and I rehabbed ourselves. My dad rehabbed all my personal units.

What I’ve learned is that once a unit is fully rehabbed, it’s less hassle and the turnover time is much quicker. I send in my handyman to handle the cleaning, paint touch-ups, minor repairs and swap out new door lock, and voila, they’re done within 2-4 days.
1559   Eman   2022 Dec 6, 3:03pm  

@EBGuy and @Patrick,

pkennedy will be in town next week for a few days, 12/12 - 12/15. Let us know if you guys want to meet up on 12/13 or 12/14. I’m unemployed so my schedule is flexible.
1560   zzyzzx   2022 Dec 7, 6:40am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuyers-underwater-mortgage-203707947.html

270,000 homebuyers who bought in 2022 are underwater on their mortgage
1561   stereotomy   2022 Dec 7, 8:33am  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuyers-underwater-mortgage-203707947.html

270,000 homebuyers who bought in 2022 are underwater on their mortgage

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
1562   zzyzzx   2022 Dec 8, 6:00am  

https://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2022/12/07/housing-market-forecast-2023.html

Here's what economists are predicting for the US housing market in 2023

Redfin Corp. this week predicted home prices will fall for the first time since 2011 — but at a modest 4% nationally. Zillow Group Inc. is anticipating home prices to remain flat nationally next year, while Realtor.com has among the more positive predictions, with home prices appreciating 5.4% across the U.S. in 2023.

Fannie Mae is predicting total existing home sales will be 3.9 million in 2023 and prices will fall 1.5%. Meanwhile, Capital Economics is predicting U.S. home prices will fall 8% by mid-2023 and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) is forecasting a 5.5% decline in home prices.
1563   GNL   2022 Dec 8, 6:26am  

zzyzzx says

https://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2022/12/07/housing-market-forecast-2023.html

Here's what economists are predicting for the US housing market in 2023

Redfin Corp. this week predicted home prices will fall for the first time since 2011 — but at a modest 4% nationally. Zillow Group Inc. is anticipating home prices to remain flat nationally next year, while Realtor.com has among the more positive predictions, with home prices appreciating 5.4% across the U.S. in 2023.

Fannie Mae is predicting total existing home sales will be 3.9 million in 2023 and prices will fall 1.5%. Meanwhile, Capital Economics is predicting U.S. home prices will fall 8% by mid-2023 and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) is forecasting a 5.5% decline in home prices.


Historically speaking, which one of these prognosticators has been more correct?
1565   zzyzzx   2022 Dec 8, 10:45am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-qualifying-rate-canada-may-184048144.html

Mortgage-Qualifying Rate in Canada May Top 8% After Latest Central Bank Hike
1566   cisTits   2022 Dec 8, 11:00am  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-qualifying-rate-canada-may-184048144.html

Mortgage-Qualifying Rate in Canada May Top 8% After Latest Central Bank Hike


Why are the Canadians raising rates? Usually, they love it when the Loonie drops in value against the USD.
1567   zzyzzx   2022 Dec 8, 12:10pm  

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went up $700 because of the jump. This accounts for our homestead exemption.

My question is, is this right? It seems insane that homebuyers aren’t told their payments will jump exponentially year one. We were already at the top of our budget, and going from $3,500/month to nearly $5k for the next year is brutal. Once the escrow is paid back it will be around $4.1k, but that is still way more than we ever expected, although there was an expectation of some increase. I appreciate any insight that can be offered.
1568   GNL   2022 Dec 8, 12:26pm  

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went up $700 because of the jump. This accounts for our homestead exemption.

My question is, is this right? It seems insane that homebuyers aren’t told their payments will jump exponentially year one. We were already at the top of our budget, and going from $3...

If they go equity negative...jingle mail all the way.
1569   DD214   2022 Dec 8, 1:08pm  

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 53% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 8%

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/realtorcom-reports-weekly-active_8.html

2023 Housing Forecasts

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/2023-housing-forecasts.html
1570   cisTits   2022 Dec 8, 1:24pm  

DD214 says

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 53% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 8%

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/realtorcom-reports-weekly-active_8.html

2023 Housing Forecasts

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/2023-housing-forecasts.html


AND that doesn't show all the people just sitting on their houses because they can't sell because they can't afford to buy another house even after selling their old one, etc.

This is one of the reasons why housing bubbles are not like stock bubbles, despite how some on PatNet seem to think they are because the word 'bubble' is involved.

It takes 18 months to 2 years for a housing bubble to work its way through, not weeks or a month like when, say, a Tech Bubble or GameStop Manipulation happens.
1571   Blue   2022 Dec 8, 1:53pm  

GNL says


zzyzzx says


https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went up $700 because of the jump. This accounts for our homestead exemption.

My question is, is this right? It seems insane that homebuyers aren’t told their payments will j...


He sounded like a CA 1978 Prop 13 victim.
1572   cisTits   2022 Dec 8, 1:57pm  

^^^ Millennials don't know shit.
1573   GNL   2022 Dec 8, 1:57pm  

Blue says

GNL says

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went up $700 because of the jump. This accounts for our homestead exemption.

My que...

Oh, so that's what happens? So the longer the seller has owned the home, the larger the tax jolt will be to the buyer, correct? This is because the new tax amount will be calculated on the price the buyer pays vs. the price the seller originally paid?




1574   Blue   2022 Dec 8, 2:30pm  

Yes, tax amount get rest at next purchase price. CA 1978 prop 13 is a Ponzi scheme. Not only outside the CA but too many insiders are not aware of this crap until you get into the trap. Like any Ponzi scheme, the longer you stay your tax rate goes south even though you receive gov service like everyone else. Since property tax rate is effectively the lowest for many in the country, CA has to push every tax rate to the roof to compensate the difference. This topic really upset the people who pay none to nothing tax to their multi million dollar shacks while they enjoy the gains.
1575   ForcedTQ   2022 Dec 8, 4:49pm  

GNL says

Blue says


GNL says


zzyzzx says


https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went ...


The bigger issue is he paid $635K for a house with a market value assessment of $350k. I wonder if that was what the previous county assessment was or if that was what the appraisal was. If county assessment, then ok, what the fuck did he think was going to happen. It’s 1% of sale price plus .xx based on all the local add-ons and bullshit bonds and such.

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