patrick.net

Real estate data for Bay Area suggest the mid 1990’s was a big sale followed by the early 2010’s. Whoever bought during these time periods are likely way ahead of the game financially.

History tends to repeat itself so have an open mind and be on the lookout for the next big sale on real estate.

Just a few data points based on my experience with the South Bay market.

A SFH bought in 1996 has gone up 6x
A SFH bought in 1999 has gone up 4x
A SFH bought in 2003 has gone up 3x
A SFH bought in 2009 has gone up 4x
A SFH bought in 2013 has gone up 3x

Basically, almost no appreciation between 2003-2013. My family still owns all these SFH’s. We may move every few years, but we keep the previous house. We don’t sell.

zzyzzx says

Meanwhile, in the area I live (DC/Northern Virginia), most people live in their homes maybe 5 years or so.

GNL says

zzyzzx says

Meanwhile, in the area I live (DC/Northern Virginia), most people live in their homes maybe 5 years or so.

... with 7 years being the minimum recommended stay to at least break even and not get fucked in the ass by the overhead.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/10434wr/is_there_a_website_to_find_cheap_homes_where_a/

Is there a website to find cheap homes where a murder happened?

1337irr says

Not a Mariner fan are you, WookieMan?

No. I gave up on sports. It's all gambling and it's fixed. 100%. It's WWE or whatever wrestling acronym it is now. Sure they're athletic, but the best don't always win.

I'll do a Trumpism. Most people from Seattle are fine people, but they're mostly bad people. Sorry if you live there. The few times I've been there it's a big whatever. These places that build tourist attractions like Las Vegas, Seattle and Toronto that have buildings that look like a penis is gay to me. All three cities can eat shit.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/109fsfc/my_friends_escrow_just_went_up_525_after_2_years/

My friend’s escrow just went up $525/month after 2 years of owning the home.

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/109fsfc/my_friends_escrow_just_went_up_525_after_2_years/

My friend’s escrow just went up $525/month after 2 years of owning the home.

Did that person not look at their statement? Taxes and insurance are the only thing that would trigger that. You quoted escrow, so that has nothing to do with interest rates. Or that person was an idiot and has a variable rate mortgage. Or they're still a moron and didn't realize a purchase would require a reassessment of the property with the county based on purchase price. Bad Realtor and/or moron.

https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/109o52u/advice_did_i_buy_at_the_top_of_a_house_bubble/

Did I buy at the top of a House Bubble? What to do?

zzyzzx says

EVERYBODY SHOULD MOVE TO FLORIDA!!!

zzyzzx says

Housing market enters 'deep freeze,' as half of all homes sell below list price

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate there is a 10% drop in price based on monthly home payment affordability. Prices need to drop at least 25%. I suspect the 30 year rate will stabilize around 5.5% in later half of this year.

For most, they are technically buying monthly payments of a mortgage, home insurance, property tax, and HOA fee, instead of buying a house.

zzyzzx says

On the bright side he doesn't have the horrible awful W-2. :D

ad says

For most, they are technically buying monthly payments of a mortgage, home insurance, property tax, and HOA fee, instead of buying a house.

Mighty similar to NNN "renting."

ad says

Housing market enters 'deep freeze,' as half of all homes sell below list price

Home prices in my City near Cleveland are still bizarre. That is in bloody Cleveland in fooking Ohio!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-16/canadian-home-prices-post-record-drop-as-high-rates-hit-buyers

Canada Home Prices See Record Drop as High Rates Hit Buyers

Canadian home prices fell by the most on record in 2022, as rapidly rising interest rates forced a market adjustment that may have further to go.

The country’s benchmark home price fell 1.6% in December to C$730,600, bringing the total decrease since February’s peak to 13.2%, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.

The decline was the biggest peak-to-trough falloff since the group started compiling the data in 2005. Last year also saw the biggest price decline for a calendar year since records began, with a 7.5% drop overall.

With the economy in danger of entering a recession, and the Bank of Canada warning of more rate hikes to counter persistent inflation, the housing market may face continued pressure in the coming months.

A record number of buyers used floating-rate debt for purchases during Canada’s pandemic-era real estate boom, and those borrowers may come under increasing strain if mortgage costs remain high. Job losses from an economic slowdown also would make it harder for people to keep up with loan payments and stay in their homes.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict Canada will enter a recession in the first part of this year.

“As we look ahead to the crucial spring selling season, the all-important question is who will emerge from hibernation in greater force — buyers or sellers?” Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, said in a note to clients commenting on the new sales data. “We suspect that the market will still be digesting the rapid run-up in interest rates, and that buyers will be more reluctant to re-emerge, keeping prices under pressure for some time yet.”

Pulling Back

The housing slump so far has largely been driven by a pullback among buyers who’ve been priced out due to higher interest rates. The number of transactions in December was down 39% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis from last year, when the market was approaching its peak and before interest rates started rising.

Compared with November, the number of sales in December rose 1.3%, while new listings fell 6.4% as more prospective sellers opted to try and wait out the market weakness.

Part of that may be seasonal: Listings tend to slow during Canada’s winter months, then pick up again when the weather warms in the spring, traditionally the busiest time to sell.

So far, the decline in prices doesn’t seem to be enough to lure back many buyers because it’s been so outpaced by the rise in borrowing costs. From a record low 0.25% last March the Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark rate to 4.25% today, meaning prospective buyers looking for a 5-year mortgage now often face rates of about 6.5%.

Despite the past year’s decline, prices rose so fast during the pandemic buying frenzy that the national benchmark in December remained 33% higher than it was three years earlier. A report last month by Royal Bank of Canada showed that for the typical buyer dependent on a mortgage, housing affordability deteriorated to its worst level ever as mortgage rates rose with prices still elevated.

Phoenix market:

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/10ek6s3/the_average_mortgage_cost_reaches_45_of_household/

The average mortgage cost reaches 45% of household income, highest level in 40 years

https://slaynews.com/economy/moving-in-the-dead-of-winter-a-new-study-finds-its-the-best-time-for-bargains/

Date Event Price
1/7/2023 Listed for sale $750,000 (-8%) $469/sqft

6/17/2022 Sold $815,000 (+1.9%) $509/sqft

6/12/2022 Pending sale $799,950 $500/sqft

6/9/2022 Listed for sale $799,950 (+47.5%) $500/sqft

8/7/2019 Sold $542,500 (-1.4%) $339/sqft

7/27/2019 Pending sale $550,000 $344/sqft

7/17/2019 Price change $550,000 (-8.3%) $344/sqft

7/9/2019 Listed for sale $600,000 $375/sqft

https://www.zillow.com/homes/134-N-136th-Street,-Seattle,-WA-98133_rb/48835950_zpid/

12/12/2022 Listed for sale $799,000 (-7.1%) $372/sqft

5/7/2021 Sold $860,000 $401/sqft

https://www.zillow.com/homes/9741-57th-Avenue-S,-Seattle,-WA-98188_rb/49017110_zpid/

cisTits says

The 'Housing Experts' of Patnet this time last year insisted that this would not happen! And they vilified anyone who said differently (namely, me)

I want to see a drop of real estate industry cartel blood on the street. Sorry.

Patrick says

Until there's a spike in inventory that graph doesn't mean all that much. Existing home sales decrease if there are limited number of homes for sale. Inventory is still low. Factor in the massive rise in vacation rental homes as well that may not hit the market for decades again. Flippers have a hard time finding deals, so there's minimal activity there. The graph "looks" alarming but I'm not seeing a housing crash.

What's happing is that most don't need/want to trade homes now with the increased interest rates. So they don't sell. So less homes sell. You cannot have a price crash in housing without a massive inventory increase. It took 12+ months of inventory for prices to really drop in Chicagoland area in 2006. Start worrying if it hits 9 months. You'll get your crash when it hits 12 months. Otherwise it just stagnates, but might drop in less desirable areas.

Also all the homes purchased between the upper spikes are all low interest for the most part. Qualified, solid debt. I see no indication of a solvency issue without more job losses and a job is easier to find than oxygen at this point.

I think this is going to be a tech/stock bubble 2.0. Layoffs are happening in the tech sector at a relatively high rate. Billions are being wiped out in crypto seemingly daily. This feels more like the 2000-01 than 2006-09. And even then I don't see a huge correction coming and I'm usually pessimistic. I'm at the age though for the long haul so the next decade feels more like an opportunity to create wealth if things go to shit as we're in a position to pounce on opportunities. And we will IF it happens.

Back to housing. There has to be a graph of new construction that correlates to inventory. If new construction isn't outpacing existing inventory, you're not going to see a crash any time soon. Just sideways action depending on location.

WookieMan says

Patrick says

Until there's a spike in inventory that graph doesn't mean all that much. Existing home sales decrease if there are limited number of homes for sale. Inventory is still low. Factor in the massive rise in vacation rental homes as well that may not hit the market for decades again. Flippers have a hard time finding deals, so there's minimal activity there. The graph "looks" alarming but I'm not seeing a housing crash.

What's happing is that most don't need/want to trade homes now with the increased interest rates. So they don't sell. So less homes sell. You cannot have a price crash in housing without a massive inventory increase. It took 12+ months of inventory for prices to really drop in Chicagoland area in 2006. Start worrying if it hits 9 mon...

Agreed, besides stronger corrections in obvious shithole areas I have not seen any significant price declines, it's neither a buyer nor sellers market right now, it's in an equilibrium. Sure if you want tons of money for your overpriced shack you're out of luck now, but reasonable offers are finding buyers quickly.

My neighbor sold his 50 year old 1200 sq ft East SJ sh*tbox at last August peak market (for our neighborhood that lotsa you folks would call "ghetto", with "lousy schools").

The sales price on Zillow was 1.05 M. The property tax rate, with all the junk fees added on, is about 1.4%. So, $1200 per month to Tax Collector, Santa Clara County.

I knew the seller. After the sale but before he moved out he shared about it. (This was in August already when things began cooling down).

There was a Housing Collapse in Northern California in the early 1990's. He and his spouse bought the place then, I think around 1992. Based on the recent Zillow property tax history, I reckon they paid about $150K for it then.

His spouse recently retired from her job in a local government agency. His adult daughter moved to the Sierra foothills as she could not afford to live here in the Bay Area. So it was time for these lifelong San Joseans to leave to be near their daughter. It was never about getting the best price, it was about when it's time to leave. That said, he said the ®ealtor advised them to game the buyers a bit with the asking price, deliberately list a bit below what they thought they could get to launch a Bidding War.

They were a little late to that game, as there was no Bidding War. One offer was all-cash, but he was suspicious that the buyer was kind of sketchy. The seller and ®ealtor were instructed NOT to contact the buyers' spouse. While the spouse was not involved in the sale, the seller (my neighbor) thought it was a bit odd, so he didn't accept the offer. In spite of no Bidding War, the second offer came in offering a large sum OVER asking, actually setting a "New Zillow Valuation" for everyone on our block.

These folks are wise; they were in no hurry to "parachute" into buying a place right away in a new community they were not familiar with. They were going rent for a while and figure something out to transfer their Prop-13 assessment and get under the 500K capital gains tax.

What is my point? I've been all over the city in recent years, walked over 100 miles of streets in San Jose for my cardio workouts. Also driving once a week to make deliveries for a non-profit. The region is aging. Some aging folks will have adult kids who will take over to get the Prop-13 assessment. Many, I'd say most, of the transitions will be sales in situations like my neighbor, - not to get the "peak price" but because of life changes. The prices will come down to meet the abilitiy of buyers like my neighbor's daughter, to pay.

Snarksters can say whatever they want to "Prove Me Wrong", but I think most ®ealtors are more about getting the sale, than getting the peak price. They won't stand in the way of a price corrections.