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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   73,155 views  1,819 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.



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1742   🎂 WookieMan   2023 Jan 22, 10:04am  

mell says

Agreed, besides stronger corrections in obvious shithole areas I have not seen any significant price declines, it's neither a buyer nor sellers market right now, it's in an equilibrium. Sure if you want tons of money for your overpriced shack you're out of luck now, but reasonable offers are finding buyers quickly.

Until new construction outpaces inventory (if that makes sense) prices cannot crash. Here in IL in 2005 you'd buy 80 acres, build 200 cardboard box homes and sell them to people that didn't have the finances. That's not remotely where we're at from my observation. There's not even the skilled trades people to scale it back up to building at that pace.

The snarky comments about housing are annoying though (not you). I don't think a user here is bullish on housing short term 5 years or less. There's not a crash coming without job losses. There are a fuck ton of jobs you can get and buy a $300k home. The coastal areas will get hit the hardest because the prices are massively higher in SFBA than Iowa homes and wages aren't as different as people think. Anyone can make good money in the midwest that's similar to CA. People are waking up to this.

The Meta, Twitter and Alphabet layoffs won't move my housing market. On paper the national median will drop because those employees live in $1M homes and might not soon. So nationally it looks like housing is trending down, but that doesn't matter to me. Same with hipster areas. But your average American is just fine in normal places that they enjoy and are fine living in. Any housing crash will be an urban one. And I give no shits about it. People need to stop thinking about housing nationally and reading that bull shit.
1743   mell   2023 Jan 22, 10:39am  

WookieMan says


mell says


Agreed, besides stronger corrections in obvious shithole areas I have not seen any significant price declines, it's neither a buyer nor sellers market right now, it's in an equilibrium. Sure if you want tons of money for your overpriced shack you're out of luck now, but reasonable offers are finding buyers quickly.

Until new construction outpaces inventory (if that makes sense) prices cannot crash. Here in IL in 2005 you'd buy 80 acres, build 200 cardboard box homes and sell them to people that didn't have the finances. That's not remotely where we're at from my observation. There's not even the skilled trades people to scale it back up to building at that pace.

The snarky comments about housing are annoying though (not you). I don't think a user here is bullish on housing short term 5 years or less. There's not a crash coming without job losses. There are a...


Yeah builders are hardly building due to high prices of materials and services from inflation, they simply would have to charge too much for the completed units. Also many cities and counties fuck with builders by delaying permits and making them pay through the nose. They often need to pay private security as drugged hobos and sex trafficers use construction sites as their playground or simply steal everything, and the builder is responsible and gets served! As long as building is depressed, the value of existing homes will be retained. I don't see an oversupply of houses, condos or apartments anywhere on the horizon. Note that even if SF prices crater by 25%, they are still exorbitantly high and higher than what people purchased them for 10 years ago. Plus the constant flow of illegal aliens put a lot of pressure on the low to upper-mid end market.
1744   just_passing_through   2023 Jan 22, 10:46am  

My pal who works for DR Horton is currently building 150 homes in parallel right now in San Antonio. According to him a record high. I was at a BBQ at his house last night and he said, yes, there are still issues with the supply chain effing with them.

Apparently unlike all other builders DR hit the gas pedal when covid hit and never let off. He's pretty over worked.

He said he just drives around to each construction site waving his arms in the air saying, "Please build houses!"... For a few months in a row he was overseeing foundations being poured for 6-7 house per-day.
1745   cisTits   2023 Jan 23, 5:21am  

WookieMan says

Back to housing. There has to be a graph of new construction that correlates to inventory. If new construction isn't outpacing existing inventory, you're not going to see a crash any time soon. Just sideways action depending on location.


No there doesn't. Are house prices falling or not?
1746   cisTits   2023 Jan 23, 5:23am  

Sales of single-family houses plunged by 37% year-over-year in the Bay Area. But in Southern California, where price declines haven’t been that huge yet, sales collapsed by 48%. In all of California, sales plunged 44%, to 240,000 homes, just a hair higher than during the bottom of Housing Bust 1 in late 2007.

The median price of single-family houses in the San Francisco Bay area plunged by 30% in December from the crazy peak in March 2022, by nearly $455,000, from $1.54 million to $1.08 million in nine months, according to the California Association of Realtors today. The plunge in December – after months of layoff announcements by big and small companies in the area – was particularly brutal.





https://wolfstreet.com/2023/01/19/san-francisco-bay-area-house-prices-plunge-30-from-crazy-peak-housing-bust-2/
1747   porkchopexpress   2023 Jan 23, 6:21am  

mell says


They often need to pay private security as drugged hobos and sex trafficers use construction sites as their playground
They call that a soup kitchen
1748   🎂 WookieMan   2023 Jan 23, 6:31am  

cisTits says

WookieMan says

Back to housing. There has to be a graph of new construction that correlates to inventory. If new construction isn't outpacing existing inventory, you're not going to see a crash any time soon. Just sideways action depending on location.

No there doesn't. Are house prices falling or not?

Not remotely where I live. There are basically no homes for sale and prices are rising. Outside of its weather and scenery, this is why most of flyover country dislikes Californians. They think their world is the reality for the rest of the country. It's not. They then flee their reality and fuck up communities with their bull shit perceptions of how things should be run.

Going from 4%, which is what most people got a couple years back, to 7% isn't a big move on a $200k-300k home, which is most of the country. Sure in CA it is a big difference with interest rates at 7% on a $1M home. Here in IL though you're talking a $200-300/mo difference on the same priced home if that. Any crash will be in urban, high prices areas and hipster areas. Hence why I've been warning to get out of cities and yuppie suburbs.

You will get smashed in coastal markets likely over the next 2-5 years. But most are locked in at low interest rates and qualified loans. So it won't be a crash. Prices don't always go up. But they also don't go down often. The biggest concern is Boomers wanting to downsize with 32 year old kids that still live at home. Can the 32 year old buy what the Boomers built? The demographic shift is what scares me the most, not interest rates.

There are more younger people than old, but they don't want anything like what mom and dad built/bought. So the large homes are going to sit on the market. We're building a 2,400 sq. ft ranch. We could build substantially bigger. We don't want to. No one wants a 3,600 sq. ft. home anymore outside of diva wives and entitled beta males. And yes, I'm not everyone near my age, but the demographic shift into purchasing years for 25-35 year olds at current prices could be rough.

To answer the question, yes prices are falling in SFBA. We have users though from IL (me), Maryland, Florida, NY, Ohio, etc. I'm not an expert, the data is plain as can be though were I live. Prices are going up and they're inline with incomes. We'd need massive layoffs for prices to go down. I could get drunk and interview for 30 jobs and get them all here in IL. Prices are not dropping here outside of Chicago and urban centers.
1750   GNL   2023 Jan 23, 7:24am  

WookieMan says

I could get drunk and interview for 30 jobs and get them all here in IL.

I doubt this applies to any job that could support a family.
1752   🎂 WookieMan   2023 Jan 23, 2:45pm  

GNL says

WookieMan says


I could get drunk and interview for 30 jobs and get them all here in IL.

I doubt this applies to any job that could support a family.

Here it can. I could make $50k a year myself driving a bus for the schools AND get a pension after I'm vested. The median FAMILY income is about $62k(ish) nationally. If my wife makes $50k as well, we're above average by a good margin. That's not our situation, but the jobs are there.

There's no excuse really. Now will that salary buy you a house in desirable coastal areas? No. But there are plenty of small communities where you might have to commute a little longer and have a $300k house. That's well within reach for that salary/pay assuming no massive debt on cars and shit.
1753   Shaman   2023 Jan 23, 3:11pm  

zzyzzx says






That’s really not too bad considering the headwinds right now. Other states are faring much worse. My own zip code has gone up a couple percent since last year somehow. But probably down a few since six months ago.
1754   GNL   2023 Jan 23, 3:14pm  

WookieMan says

The median FAMILY income is about $62k(ish) nationally.

Nationally. What's the median where you are?
1755   🎂 WookieMan   2023 Jan 23, 7:15pm  

GNL says

WookieMan says


The median FAMILY income is about $62k(ish) nationally.

Nationally. What's the median where you are?

$62k for my county. I'd like to give the county, but I'd dox myself too much. It's northern IL, north of I-80. East of I-39.

If you assume the 3x's income idea that puts you at $186k. That's not how it works though. You can borrow PITI up to 40 something percent of income. Basically you can afford $2,100/mo in payments on the median household income by lending standards if you don't have other debt and a good credit score (rare). This is back of napkin math, but that gets you into the $300k range on that income with a FHA 3.5% down loan at 6.7% interest.

Housing is just going to stall in non-coastal areas. Some may/will rise still. Interest on $1.2M versus $250k is exponentially different. Coastal areas are going to see an equity loss or potential crash. Specifically in the SFBA because of all the recent layoffs. That's not a surprise. Local government is pure shit so that doesn't help.

I could walk into any business or government entity here in IL and have a $40-70k job if I walked in not wearing pants. We'll see. I'm in Fort Wayne, IN Thursday, Phoenix, AZ Friday to Tuesday and Bozeman, MT until I think Feb 5. So hitting different parts of the country for 10-11 days.

Mexico seemed to be in better spirits than the Dominican. Bahamas was fine and didn't see negative energy economically, but that's the islands of FL essentially. Not that one cannot get stats and info, but experience is a thing. I'm in IL and WI often as well. I'm not bullish on anything currently. But I'm not overly bearish. European War III breaking out is of concern and potential nukes, but I think we're in a tech sector crash again. That's more probable than a recession that moves housing in a large way.
1756   Misc   2023 Jan 23, 9:02pm  

There are also the crazies in charge of our financial system. Seems one of the clueless ones is retiring and decided to spout some wisdom. She didn't really want to have a 2% inflation target and didn't like the idea of QE,, but wants to sell the Fed's portfolio of mortgage securities soon. That would cause mortgage rates to go even higher causing even less homes to be built and decreasing the loan amount for new buyers to qualify for.

You should read the article to see how clueless the Fed members really are.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-needs-mortgage-backed-securities-183640854.html

... AND they are all like her.
1757   GNL   2023 Jan 23, 11:20pm  

Misc says

There are also the crazies in charge of our financial system. Seems one of the clueless ones is retiring and decided to spout some wisdom. She didn't really want to have a 2% inflation target and didn't like the idea of QE,, but wants to sell the Fed's portfolio of mortgage securities soon. That would cause mortgage rates to go even higher causing even less homes to be built and decreasing the loan amount for new buyers to qualify for.

You should read the article to see how clueless the Fed members really are.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-needs-mortgage-backed-securities-183640854.html

... AND they are all like her.

In your opinion, is there anything wrong with low interest rates?
1758   stereotomy   2023 Jan 24, 12:00am  

GNL says


Misc says


There are also the crazies in charge of our financial system. Seems one of the clueless ones is retiring and decided to spout some wisdom. She didn't really want to have a 2% inflation target and didn't like the idea of QE,, but wants to sell the Fed's portfolio of mortgage securities soon. That would cause mortgage rates to go even higher causing even less homes to be built and decreasing the loan amount for new buyers to qualify for.

You should read the article to see how clueless the Fed members really are.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-needs-mortgage-backed-securities-183640854.html

... AND they are all like her.

In your opinion, is there anything wrong with low interest rates?


I'm not Misc, but low interest rates are bad because they pull too much future demand forward to the present day. I.e., people buy more now on credit than later, and later, they're too indebted to buy anything else so economic activity stalls.

Low interest rates discourage saving by negating the time value of money - no one has any incentive to defer gratification.

Finally, low interest rates promote speculation in the riskiest assets in pursuit of yield. When these risky assets crash, savings are destroyed instead of invested.
1759   GNL   2023 Jan 24, 12:54am  

stereotomy says

GNL says



Misc says



There are also the crazies in charge of our financial system. Seems one of the clueless ones is retiring and decided to spout some wisdom. She didn't really want to have a 2% inflation target and didn't like the idea of QE,, but wants to sell the Fed's portfolio of mortgage securities soon. That would cause mortgage rates to go even higher causing even less homes to be built and decreasing the loan amount for new buyers to qualify for.

You should read the article to see how clueless the Fed members really are.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-needs-mortgage-backed-securities-183640854.html

... AND they are all like her.

In y...

I agree with you. Seems Misc and others do not.
1760   clambo   2023 Jan 24, 9:38am  

Maybe a peak but around Santa Cruz it's still insane.

1761   Eric Holder   2023 Jan 24, 12:31pm  

clambo says


Maybe a peak but around Santa Cruz it's still insane.




The question is: did it survive the recent string of storms or got washed down the mountain? And what the insurance premium is going to be next year?

PS. I know a couple who "won" a house on a piece of land in that general area and had to back out after getting insurance quotes for the place. And it was before the recent storms (but after the recent wildfires).
1762   Ceffer   2023 Jan 24, 12:38pm  

In Santa Cruz, mudslide and earthquake disastered specials are slightly marked down. "And here you can have your Jacuzzi! Until it winds up down there. You can immerse your self in if it the fires get close (there were actually people who survived the Oakland Hills fire early 90's by jumping into swimming pools)".
1766   cisTits   2023 Jan 25, 11:14am  

zzyzzx says






Canada in general is fucked.
1769   zzyzzx   2023 Jan 25, 11:49am  

https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/bay-area-housing-market-cooling-17731732.php

Bay Area home prices fell more than anywhere else in US last month
1770   cisTits   2023 Jan 25, 1:11pm  

DR Horton Reports 40% DROP in Sales (Housing Crash Denial Spreads)

https://www.reventure.app/blog/dr-horton-reports-40-crash-in-sales-housing-crash-denial-spreads
1771   B.A.C.A.H.   2023 Jan 25, 3:29pm  

zzyzzx says

Bay Area home prices fell more than anywhere else in US last month

Good. The high prices have made life miserable here.
1772   1337irr   2023 Jan 25, 3:36pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

zzyzzx says


Bay Area home prices fell more than anywhere else in US last month

Good. The high prices have made life miserable here.

I mildly suspect the fall will get worst because of Prop 13.
1773   🎂 WookieMan   2023 Jan 25, 5:59pm  

cisTits says

DR Horton Reports 40% DROP in Sales (Housing Crash Denial Spreads)

https://www.reventure.app/blog/dr-horton-reports-40-crash-in-sales-housing-crash-denial-spreads

You might as well literally live in a cardboard box in LA or SFBA anyway. DR houses are shit. Link doesn't load. And it says 40% in sales, not value in the link. That's pure clickbait. Sales/building will drop off if you're not building in anticipation of a drop off in sales so your prices don't drop.

Maybe prices are dropping in other places, but I'll keep saying it, they aren't here. No one is building and there's maybe 2 homes for sale out of 800 in my town. The rest of the country is not the West coast. People are moving OUT of CA and not into CA. Your numbers are going to be shit for the foreseeable future, I don't disagree with that. Out of the 39M people living there I'd get out of the dumpster fire. It doesn't get better.

The California dream is over. Most major films and shows don't even film there anymore. You have desert towns in CA, but you've got Alec Baldwin shooting people in New Mexico. Many weekly sitcoms are filmed here in Chicago. Atlanta is a big film spot. CA has lost its luster. Major personal brands are fleeing like Ben Shapiro. Joe Rogan. The list is getting bigger. Since prices are so high in CA it's going to drag the median down nationwide as I've said. It does NOT mean we're in a housing crash.
1774   cisTits   2023 Jan 25, 11:13pm  

WookieMan says


Link doesn't load




WookieMan says


And it says 40% in sales, not value in the link.


So?

WookieMan says


That's pure clickbait.


Just because you don't like how it doesn't conform to the strawman you constructed to diss it only means it doesn't conform to the strawman you constructed to diss it.

WookieMan says


No one is building and there's maybe 2 homes for sale out of 800 in my town.


So the fuck what?

Wow! Anecdotal info that only pertains to Wookie's town trumps data that obviously never pertained to Wookie's town!

WookieMan says


Your numbers are going to be shit for the foreseeable future


Wow! Now they are MY numbers.

More strawman goalposts moving bull.

Nobody is building much in California anyway. Duh.

It is this intellectual laziness that is why I rip new assholes into 'Housing Experts of PatNet'.

I have actually held back on ripping into you Wookie directly so far.

Now kid gloves come off.

Don't go after me with crap like this again unless you want to be reamed again and in a harsher way in future.

Jesus.
1775   GNL   2023 Jan 26, 5:46am  

cisTits,

What is your prediction for home values?
1776   cisTits   2023 Jan 26, 6:28am  

GNL says


What is your prediction for home values?


What market? And why do my predictions have anything to do with the proven bullshit posted here on PatNet by various 'Housing Experts' that have continually been proven to be wrong? (Which isn't such a big deal in and of itself but rather the defensive projecting crap they post when their BS is challenged in any way)
1777   🎂 WookieMan   2023 Jan 26, 6:30am  

cisTits says

Don't go after me with crap like this again unless you want to be reamed again and in a harsher way in future.

Lol. Get triggered much? 40% drop in SALES is not a drop in PRICES. That's not a strawman or even a dispute. The headline says sales, not price. Really confused where you are going with this.

Unless there's more inventory on the market it is unlikely to result in any meaningful price drops. We'll see this spring. Interest rates will stall PRICES nationally and CA (YOUR PRICES) may be in for a rough ride with the JOB LOSSES I've been talking about. I've been saying this would have to be a job loss housing crash IF housing even gets hit that hard. And even then the floor is pretty high on housing price losses.

SALES could drop 40% for DR because they got 40% less buyers wanting to build 5 months ago, so they didn't build and SALES went down. SALES will naturally go down in that scenario. We haven't built enough new inventory over the last decade and a half as is. These companies got burned leading up to 2006, they've learned. Don't overbuild if people aren't buying. They want to keep the prices up and over building brings them down.

Existing home sales are a better metric. But with regard to SALES, that could mean people are just staying put.

We're talking simple supply and demand economics. It's not an argument. You have ripped nothing on me. Show me year over year price losses in housing that are worse than -10%, regionally and not in a shit area/city like St. Louis or Memphis. Not one cherry picked neighborhood or individual house sales price history. PRICES, not gross SALES of homes. There simply aren't homes for sale in much of the country.

Inventory has to increase to show whether prices go down or not. You're talking about a home builder that probably didn't get contracts on new builds, so they didn't build, so sales dropped. So they layoff or drop contractors and sell the remaining 60% of what they built. Fact is it's a clickbait article using SALES from a builder who can scale up and down within a month or two. They scaled down.... Not much else to it.

Hell, even if the link did open, look at the source. I played this game for 15 years dude. Look at the image you posted. That's pure click bait. As I've said, I'm not bullish on housing, but this isn't 2006 2.0, where an 18 year old with no income could buy a $500k house. No one is moving because they locked in low interest rates. They have to buy a new place at higher interest rates. SALES will fall. It's inventory. No strawman there. Just a fact. Let me know when I'm wrong and you've "ripped" me.
1778   cisTits   2023 Jan 26, 6:51am  

WookieMan says


Lol. Get triggered much


Since when is calling out the bs you continue to post constitute being triggered?

WookieMan says


I played this game for 15 years dude.


Fucking bullshit. Yup, I call it out. Mostly because you can claim whatever maturbatory 'credentials' you want but it doesn't change the fact you post shit that is contradicted by reality. Common characteristic of the Housing Experts of PatNet. Last 18 months of this is written in stone. Yet you are oblivious to it.

WookieMan says


No strawman there


You don't even seem to know what the term is...because you are doing it again. Only this time you are constructing another strawman to bullshit your way out of being caught with the first strawman I busted up.

I particularly love how you rip an article you claim you can't open in the first place. Or claim to. AND you contradict your own crap when even doing that.

You have strawmen in your own mind constructing other strawman and then shitpost them w/o realizing it. Cognitive Dissonance seems to be your super power. (big ass hint: this is your main problem right there, not whether you are correct about some datum point or not)

A three year old given basic critical thinking skills training can see through the fallacies and contradictions you post w/in 5 minutes of reading them, for chrissakes.
1779   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2023 Jan 26, 8:07am  

An interesting take on the housing market. Points out that pending new home inventory is often left out of an analysis of supply and demand. And so you can have price declines with an apparent low inventory.

Apologies but not on Rumble.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQXr_5coj84&t=310s
1780   gabbar   2023 Jan 26, 9:12am  

This is interesting. I watched people's shopping carts at the grocery store yesterday. People are just buying the essentials.

1781   GNL   2023 Jan 26, 9:48am  

I agree with Wookieman. I'm a real estate photographer and talk to many Realtors (yes, I realize they are sales people but, it makes sense what most of them are saying which is what wookieman is saying). Some seem to believe rates will come down in May. Not so sure I agree with that but, we'll see.

Low inventory will rule unless inflation goes ballistic or job losses go ballistic. There is a ton of boomer $$ out there. If it weren't for boomers, I believe starter homes, condos and townhouses would be priced considerably lower. That's my opinion.

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