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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   434,379 views  4,666 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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1783   gabbar   2023 Feb 25, 7:17pm  

WookieMan says

there's too many in RE.

There are 9k real estate agents in Columbus, Ohio!
1784   GNL   2023 Feb 26, 4:12pm  

LMAO


1785   GNL   2023 Feb 26, 4:16pm  



1786   AD   2023 Feb 26, 10:49pm  

As far as GNL's post above (post number 1933), the rich don't get mortgages for homes. They buy with cash such as from stock sale.

So price drops of that percentage are due to poor economy and stock market.

Just like fine art and jewelry sales much be down. Rolex watches should relatively be discount now.

How are yacht sales doing compared to high end luxury housing ?
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1787   WookieMan   2023 Feb 27, 12:12am  

ad says

As far as GNL's post above (post number 1933), the rich don't get mortgages for homes. They buy with cash such as from stock sale.

So price drops of that percentage are due to poor economy and stock market.

Just like fine art and jewelry sales much be down. Rolex watches should relatively be discount now.

How are yacht sales doing compared to high end luxury housing ?

This comment makes sense. I just think the urban areas are going to take a beating and that's what we're going to see. We only told friends and family we were going to build a house. We had and have 5+ people willing to buy our house at generally whatever price we want within reason and no brokers.

Everyone has a different reality. Our current house was one of the best investments we made and was super frugal. I actually think building right now HERE, is a smart decision. Builders are desperate for work. Demand has dropped and so have prices HERE. Sorry for the all caps, but some here think the country is CA so I want to be clear this is IL.

Not all areas are over priced and run like shit. And that's saying a lot as an Illinoisan.
1788   zzyzzx   2023 Feb 27, 8:25am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/11cycta/when_youre_stuck/

What do you do when you hate the house you bought, the things you hate about it you can’t change (constant traffic noise), and you can’t afford to sell?

We bought it because we owned a 2 bedroom apartment and have 2 kids. I wanted to move before my older daughter started kindergarten so we felt we were in a time crunch even though the market was not ideal for buyers. Basically we needed a house, looked at and made offers on many, and this is the one we got. It checked enough of the boxes but the busyness of the road was something I failed to prioritize or fully realize.
1790   zzyzzx   2023 Feb 27, 10:00am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/11d11fg/yikes/



Honestly it's not too early to start lowballing people. I'm considering sending a 60% of list offer on a large commercial property. The fact is rising taxes and interest rates don't justify anything near the asking price. If they don't want to be reasonable then I'll simply wait until things get worse and the offer will not be improving when they come back to me later.
1791   zzyzzx   2023 Feb 27, 12:02pm  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/landlords-face-crisis-mortgage-costs-171034546.html

Landlords face crisis as mortgage costs surge higher than rents
1792   HeadSet   2023 Feb 27, 12:37pm  

zzyzzx says

Landlords face crisis as mortgage costs surge higher than rents

This is more the case in Britain where all mortgages are variable rate.
1793   GNL   2023 Feb 27, 1:02pm  

GNL says

LMAO




Obviously you don't understand how to invest in RE. Cash flow doesn't matter. No, you invest for future equity but first make sure interest rates are rising.
1794   Eman   2023 Feb 27, 5:19pm  

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/11cycta/when_youre_stuck/

What do you do when you hate the house you bought, the things you hate about it you can’t change (constant traffic noise), and you can’t afford to sell?

We bought it because we owned a 2 bedroom apartment and have 2 kids. I wanted to move before my older daughter started kindergarten so we felt we were in a time crunch even though the market was not ideal for buyers. Basically we needed a house, looked at and made offers on many, and this is the one we got. It checked enough of the boxes but the busyness of the road was something I failed to prioritize or fully realize.


Buyer’s remorse. It’s that simple. No one forced them to buy the house.
1795   Eman   2023 Feb 27, 5:20pm  

GNL says

LMAO




Numbers don’t pencil out. Next.
1796   GNL   2023 Feb 27, 5:22pm  

cisTits says

GNL says


Obviously you don't understand how to invest in RE. Cash flow doesn't matter. No, you invest for future equity but first make sure interest rates are rising.


Only amateurs do that.

Just in case.../sarc
1797   Eman   2023 Feb 27, 5:22pm  

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/11d11fg/yikes/



Honestly it's not too early to start lowballing people. I'm considering sending a 60% of list offer on a large commercial property. The fact is rising taxes and interest rates don't justify anything near the asking price. If they don't want to be reasonable then I'll simply wait until things get worse and the offer will not be improving when they come back to me later.

Auction = foreclosure? If this is the case, the owner should ask for a postponement. List the house and sell it for as close to fair market value (FMV) as possible. At auction in the current market environment, my guess is that the house would sell for 70% of FMV at most. The discounted offers are justified.
1798   Eman   2023 Feb 27, 5:25pm  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/landlords-face-crisis-mortgage-costs-171034546.html

Landlords face crisis as mortgage costs surge higher than rents

This is a real issue, especially for commercial properties, where the loans are becoming adjustable. JPM loan officer told us they’ve been doing cash-in refinance on loans that adjust recently. So far, owners have been able to bring in the difference for the refinance. No red flag……yet. This is specifically to Bay Area commercial real estate.
1799   Eman   2023 Feb 27, 5:26pm  

HeadSet says

zzyzzx says


Landlords face crisis as mortgage costs surge higher than rents

This is more the case in Britain where all mortgages are variable rate.

The same with Canada and Australia. Only ARMs. No 30-year fixed mortgages like the USA. 🚀🚀
1800   GNL   2023 Feb 28, 5:53pm  

@cisTits - what about inventory? Here in Northern Virginia, Realtors are telling me every day that things are selling quickly and at full price.
1801   Patrick   2023 Feb 28, 9:32pm  

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/02/28/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-february-update-biggest-price-drops-now-in-phoenix-portland-las-vegas-san-francisco-seattle-denver-san-diego/


Housing Bubble 2 is deflating relentlessly, not under the pressure of an unemployment crisis – far from it: the labor market is still historically tight with the highest pay increases in four decades, and an increase in unemployment would be the next shoe to drop on the housing market – but because mortgage rates have reverted to the normal levels of 6% to 7% that existed before the money-printing era started in 2008. And home prices that exploded over the past few years, fueled by mortgage rates of 3% and lower, don’t make sense anymore – and never made sense to begin with. ...

On a month-to-month basis, today’s Case-Shiller Index for single-family house prices dropped in all 20 metros that it covers. The biggest month-to-month drops, those dropping at least 1.0%, occurred in:

Phoenix: -1.9% (second month in a row! The babe is moving fast)
Portland: -1.9%
Las Vegas: -1.8%
San Francisco Bay Area: -1.8%
Seattle: -1.8%
Denver: -1.3%
San Diego: -1.3%
Chicago: -1.2%
Minneapolis: -1.2%
Dallas: -1.1%
Detroit: -1.1%
Charlotte: -1.0%
From their respective peaks, which ranged from May to July 2022, house prices dropped the most in these metros:

San Francisco Bay Area: -16.0%
Seattle: -15.1%
San Diego: -11.1%
Phoenix: -9.4%
Denver: -7.5%
Las Vegas: -8.8%
Los Angeles: -8.1%
Portland: -7.9%
Dallas: -7.6%
1802   WookieMan   2023 Feb 28, 10:01pm  

West coast and hipster cities are going to eat shit. If someone didn't see that coming after covid you're not thinking. I've beaten this dead horse so many times here and I've 100% been right. There is and will be an exodus from cities. Covid accelerated that with work from home, millennials starting families, defund the police and just shitty politics.

Of the big negatives I think Phoenix has the highest probability of recovery. Denver has needed its ass handed to it for a decade now. The growth was not logical and likely ignited by legal pot. The west coast cities are obvious. Smart people generally don't live in a place led by morons, taxed at insane rates and political policy.

Regardless of interest rates I'm not losing selling my $1M home in Seattle and buying a $500k home in Spokane. Until people realize that most home buyers are white collar and can now work from home, major cities are going to take a beating. I lived the exodus from a major city like Chicago. The floor is much higher here for price loses. We're seeing price gains where I'm at and outside of 10% interest rates it's not stopping. It's not booming but we're hitting 3-5% increases annually still. Not losses.
1803   zzyzzx   2023 Mar 1, 6:11am  

https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-economists-markets-investing-housing-correction-crash-economy-rate-hikes-2023-2

The Fed's own economists are warning of a 19.5% housing correction and more rate hikes could set off a 'domino effect'
1804   zzyzzx   2023 Mar 1, 6:12am  

GNL says

Here in Northern Virginia, Realtors are telling me every day that things are selling quickly and at full price.


Probably still the case around here, for now.
1805   zzyzzx   2023 Mar 1, 6:15am  

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/mortgage-demand-falls-interest-rates-rise.html

Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops to a 28-year low
1806   zzyzzx   2023 Mar 1, 6:23am  

Ouch, nothing like paying $16k over ask just to take a $90k loss later...

2/10/2023 Sold $660,000
1/11/2023 Pending sale $699,879
12/7/2022 Price change $699,879
11/28/2022 Price change $799,000
11/16/2022 Price change $825,000
10/20/2022 Listed for sale $850,000
6/16/2022 Sold $750,000
4/26/2022 Pending sale $734,000
4/22/2022 Listed for sale $734,000

https://www.zillow.com/homes/9207-Woodbay-Dr-Tampa,-FL-33626_rb/44857898_zpid/
1807   WookieMan   2023 Mar 1, 6:41am  

zzyzzx says


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/mortgage-demand-falls-interest-rates-rise.html

Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops to a 28-year low

In normally priced markets that are $700k or under, they should weather the storm relatively well. Where this will appear to be a crash is the cities and coastal areas.

Also 90% of owners bought when interest rates were sub 5% and that's not accounting for those that bought with cash. This isn't 2004-08 where we were giving strippers and unqualified people loans based off of undocumented income. Inventory shot above double digits into the 15-20 month range at that time. People might sell in cities to get the fuck out, but people are simply staying put.

I was personally managing 80+ listing during the crash. It was insane. Unless they're giving away loans again, I'm not see it. This is a demographic shift out of cities. Their prices tend to be higher. The national median AND city prices will go down. But it's not a crash.

My sister in law just got an all cash offer on her rental property. No price cuts. 2 weeks. Little cottage house near a lake in Northwest IL. I've never once said there won't be declines. People's perception of the market is from their location and they assume that's how it will be everywhere. It isn't and won't be...
1808   Blue   2023 Mar 1, 7:09am  

Good news for renters. Heard over the radio 1220am, relief is on the way for renters that 500k apartments will be finished soon and put pressure on upside.
1809   GNL   2023 Mar 1, 8:03am  

cisTits says

GNL says


cisTits - what about inventory? Here in Northern Virginia, Realtors are telling me every day that things are selling quickly and at full price.


What about it?

I don't think you can expect a crash when inventory is low.
1810   GNL   2023 Mar 1, 8:16am  

Blue says

500k apartments

Not enough.
1811   AD   2023 Mar 1, 1:27pm  

Blue says

Good news for renters. Heard over the radio 1220am, relief is on the way for renters that 500k apartments will be finished soon and put pressure on upside.


Lots of apartments going up in Panama City and Panama City Beach.

Seen a lot of apartment websites offering 1 month free for 13 month lease.

Seems like rental prices are back at 2021 levels without the 1 month discount.

I suspect rental rates will be frozen for next couple of years to allow wage growth to better align with past rental price increases.
1814   AD   2023 Mar 1, 6:18pm  

Booger says

That's way too fucking expensive for the panhandle.


Housing here in the Florida panhandle needs to drop about 20% from its peak levels. It is already 6% down based on Redfin research data.

.
1815   WookieMan   2023 Mar 1, 6:50pm  

I haven't looked at prices in the Western panhandle area. Pensacola, Navarre, Destin, Fort Walton, etc. Eastern areas like St. George Island are fucking nuts on all levels. Had a chance to buy our vacation rental at $450k that would rent for $2,200/wk. It's now $900k and easily rents for $5k/wk now.

Unique area. They zoned it so there couldn't be condo towers. Not the same, but similar to CA's prop 13. When you create scarcity prices go bonkers. That's one pocket that's going to likely see a downturn at least in FL that I know well. Rural tourist area. A lot of wealthy Floridians and Georgians go there because it's quiet, good beaches, good fishing, oysters, Appalachicola is a quaint little hipster town. Plantation has a landing strip. Really cool island and regret not investing there.
1817   zzyzzx   2023 Mar 2, 7:44am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-blocked-investor-withdrawals-71-174423166.html

Blackstone blocked investor withdrawals from $71 billion REIT in February
1818   Blue   2023 Mar 2, 2:19pm  

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/03/02/mortgage-rates-back-over-7percent.html
Things getting interesting at 7+% rates. Really a great news if it can sustain the rate for long. But again free printing press might not give a break which makes cash is worth less.
1819   Patrick   2023 Mar 2, 7:37pm  

https://padailypost.com/ but i don't see it on their site, so just took some photos:




1820   zzyzzx   2023 Mar 3, 11:42am  

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-home-prices-could-plunge-risk-deep-housing-slide-fed-economist-warns

US home prices could plunge 20% amid risk of 'deep' housing slide, Fed economist warns
1821   zzyzzx   2023 Mar 3, 11:44am  

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-sale-prices-fall-first-time/

Housing Market Update: Home Prices Fall Annually For First Time In A Decade As Mortgage Rates Pass 7%
1822   AD   2023 Mar 3, 1:37pm  

Been looking to buy 300 shares in Invitation Homes and sell weekly covered calls for at least 1 year.

Invitation Homes buys residential real estate and then rents them. Another residential rental company of my interest that offers rentals (but has different business model) is Avalon Bay.

I think both are good long term holdings for real estate.

.

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