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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   72,489 views  1,815 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.



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19   BayArea   2022 Apr 30, 8:22am  

100% right… not to mention a massive property tax reset.

Yes, the ones that sold in 2022 are moving back to be with family out of state. They are living the CA dream. Come to CA, spend 2-3yrs working an assignment in tech, and take $1,000,000 of equity with you back to your home state (ya, half of that is tax free but still).

They’ll probably go back and tell everyone how easy it was… when in fact they rode the wave of an unprecedented time.
20   FarmersWon   2022 Apr 30, 8:28am  

BayArea says

100% right… not to mention a massive property tax reset.

Yes, the ones that sold in 2022 are moving back to be with family out of state. They are living the CA dream. Come to CA, spend 2-3yrs working an assignment in tech, and take a $1,000,000 of equity with you back to your home state (ya, half of that is tax free but still)


It works in their case. But I will be surprised if you can afford bay area home working for only 2-3 years.. But may be had good jobs.
I looked at danville,dublin & pleasanton area.
Houses sold 1 month :350
On sale : 252
Pending : 382

It is hard to imagine this will reduce prices in short run.
21   BayArea   2022 Apr 30, 8:31am  

Yes in this case the couples had good jobs and were able to afford 2019 homes.

Also, curious where you are getting the sales figures? Will be very interesting how those numbers look 2-3mo from now.
22   FarmersWon   2022 Apr 30, 8:34am  

BayArea says

Yes in this case the couples had good jobs and were able to afford 2019 homes.


If true and they still had jobs, it is not very wise to leave such high paying jobs as once things get normal and layoff season is back, the remote will be cut first or forced to come back.
Hiring is tough these days but employers will have upper hand soon.
23   FarmersWon   2022 Apr 30, 8:35am  

BayArea says

Yes in this case the couples had good jobs and were able to afford 2019 homes.

Also, curious where you are getting the sales figures? Will be very interesting how those numbers look 2-3mo from now.


REDFIN
You can draw a area interested in and can dow following:
1) for sale
2) pending
3) sold in 1 week to years... It shows few listing and tells the total number.

109 new homes came to market in last week and 67 sold. So surplus was 42. if it grows to few thousand over summer will get interesting, but right now is balanced.
24   FarmersWon   2022 Apr 30, 8:46am  

Looking further, Some people are trying to sell tri-valley at Palo Alto prices to net some naive fish.
These people will do well and the people who buy will lose their money.
If your friends did this .. they will do well.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Pleasanton/3410-Zion-Canyon-Ct-94588/home/1901934?source=patrick.net
25   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Apr 30, 9:40am  

BayArea says
But Zillow is still telling me to expect double digit 1yr forecast % gain. 🧐


Yeah.

Every ®ealtor always says, all the time, except for some non-Cool-Aid Drinking ones who confide to their closest inner circle, it's always a good time to buy.

I remember "shopping" for a home in my section of SJ in the summer of 2006. I was not interested in buying. I was interested in seeing WTF was going on. Spoke to so many ®ealtors at the "Open Houses". My story was that I wanted to "trade up" by selling our home and buying a larger or newer or otherwise better one in the same area. I told them that I wanted to discreetly sell ours so as not to call attention of the neighbors.

You could see the Greed in Their Eyes, like Daffy Duck in his Greedy Coward cartoon:
( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-71uqV0LHag&source=patrick.net ); TWO Listings!

They congratulated me for my savvy idea and told me what a great time it was to buy.
26   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Apr 30, 9:43am  

Talking One's Book
1. The act of promoting a stock one owns in order to entice others to buy it. This would in turn benefit one's own investment portfolio. Talking one's book is not a well-regarded strategy.

2. More generally, the act of promoting one's company, product or other good or service.
27   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Apr 30, 9:44am  

mell says
Agreed he is wrong. There will be no decline for obvious reasons, immigrant pressure. The wealthier will seek refuge in good areas and keep bidding them up


Yes.

Patrick started his blog in frustration of how "it's different here". It is. Commonplace sensibilities don't apply in the SF Bay Area, which is becoming like a colony of India and Greater China.

About half the world's population lives in those places. The rich in those countries outnumber all of the US + Canada. They all covet a postage-stamp residence in just a few prime zip codes in Vancouver, SF Bay Area, and for the "losers" among them, maybe Seattle and LA.
28   mell   2022 Apr 30, 9:52am  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Talking One's Book
1. The act of promoting a stock one owns in order to entice others to buy it. This would in turn benefit one's own investment portfolio. Talking one's book is not a well-regarded strategy.

2. More generally, the act of promoting one's company, product or other good or service.


Agreed. Though it's fine to make recommendations with disclosure, I do that from time to time with small cap biotechs and people on patnet who bought those fared quite well. That being said I see no point in housing predictions since it's a tightly controlled racket, moreso in areas like CA. 2008 was an anomaly were they lost control due to too many banksters cheating. Sure this could happen again, but it's so rare that it's not worth speculating on it, you're more likely to lose your shorts shorting housing than to make any money. The housing market is even more entrenched than the stock market due to its locality, and much easier to control than the stock market. They will not let it fail, so predictions are useless.
29   BayArea   2022 Apr 30, 2:41pm  

I just saw something this weekend I haven’t seen in the past year:

Homes in the tri valley are going for a second consecutive week of open house.
30   Booger   2022 Apr 30, 3:04pm  

FarmersWon says
once things get normal and layoff season is back, the remote will be cut first or forced to come back.


This will put downward pricing pressure in some locations.
31   Eman   2022 Apr 30, 3:30pm  

From my real estate network, the last 3-4 weeks suggested the market is in a holding pattern. Buyers, who used to qualify for $1.8-$2.2M, are getting bumped down to $1.5-$1.8M due to higher interest rate.

Buyers have become more selective. However, homes in good location still sell nicely. Does 2022 feel like 2006 now?
32   Blue   2022 Apr 30, 5:21pm  

Inventory is picking up, now more open houses are seen around.
33   richwicks   2022 Apr 30, 5:23pm  

The Bay area has a 10% unoccupancy rate, people just buy homes here as an "investment". When the dam breaks, it will be interesting.
34   Booger   2022 Apr 30, 5:58pm  

richwicks says

The Bay area has a 10% unoccupancy rate, people just buy homes here as an "investment". When the dam breaks, it will be interesting.


Florida unoccupancy rate is high too.
35   HeadSet   2022 Apr 30, 6:51pm  

richwicks says
The Bay area has a 10% unoccupancy rate,

Then lots of room for illegals to squat..
36   REpro   2022 Apr 30, 7:46pm  

FarmersWon says

BayArea says
Here in the tri valley, exactly what you describe is happening in the early part of 2022. We have friends in the area who are walking away with >50% gain on houses they bought 2-3yrs ago.


Yes it is true but make sense only if you are leaving bay area.
They will have trouble getting back in market after realtor,uncle sam's and paper manager's cut.
The people who are buying have shit load of money and won't default or lower prices anytime soon.
(Flushed with RSU & real estate sale in south bay money)

I will not sell now in current environment. Someone counting on repurchase can get himself out of market. Small reduction on prices can be eaten by inflation in two years.
Builders already on edge to stop building single family houses due to incredible costs, will go into affordable multifamily because this is where city subsidy make building feasible.
Biden already damage what Trump strat to build. Now we even more dependent from overseas. Half of EU countries have double digit inflation. People cry on prices of heating gas, gasoline, electricity, and won't be better any time soon.
Yes, shortage of goods, components, food, too expensive utilities and fertilizer, will definitely create layoff situation again. The bright spot of grow will be in welfare segment.
Consequently, housing supply be reduced to mostly of relocation and estate sale. Can be easy swallow by successful people.
Immigration is not a factor. Millions of illegals have limited chances to find job, marginal number will ever succeed in US. They still under pressure to send money home. Most will stay on welfare. Theay are not future home buyers or pension supporters (Sweden mistake).
Current house owner more likely can rent room to immigrants than sell house due to cash flow shortage.
37   Blue   2022 Apr 30, 8:02pm  

Mountain house, Tracy hills, Manteca areas skyrocketed during the last two years. Met someone who is in house upgrade business says all recent purchases in Manteca are from many investors with no occupants. 4 or 5b 1mil new house still looks like may be a bargain compared to few decades old 2 to 4b 3+ mil house in silly con valley.
38   BayArea   2022 Apr 30, 8:29pm  

SFH is king.

I don’t see any new ones going up
39   Blue   2022 Apr 30, 8:38pm  

HeadSet says

richwicks says
The Bay area has a 10% unoccupancy rate,

Then lots of room for illegals to squat..

didn't go well when I said the same a year ago on nextdoor that it any way come from a blood money from corrupt 3rd world politicians through their network to park here.
40   BayArea   2022 Apr 30, 8:49pm  

Eman says

From my real estate network, the last 3-4 weeks suggested the market is in a holding pattern. Buyers, who used to qualify for $1.8-$2.2M, are getting bumped down to $1.5-$1.8M due to higher interest rate.

Buyers have become more selective. However, homes in good location still sell nicely. Does 2022 feel like 2006 now?


No because loans aren’t being written to people with nothing more than a pulse.

I agree with your mortgage qualification amounts however… And it happened very quickly too!
41   ad   2022 May 1, 12:25am  

Booger says
Florida unoccupancy rate is high too.


They are not even rented on a short term basis like vacation rental for 1 month ? Florida does very well on short term rentals that are near amusement parks, nature parks and the beach (within 30 minute drive).
42   just_passing_through   2022 May 1, 10:16am  

ad says
here in Panama City Beach


You mentioned the clearness and visibility of the water there. I just took a peak at online photos and wow! That's comparable to my Maui beach front condo. Might even be better.

I'm used to the nasty water near Corpus Christi in TX when I think of the gulf. S. Padre is pretty nice though but remote.
43   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 May 1, 11:22am  

BayArea says
tri valley


Tri-Valley. Leafy safe neighborhoods with high-standardized-test-score ("good") schools. Priced beyond the reach of blue collar riff-raff. (Before turn of the century) a reasonably short commute to Silicon Valley. Opportunity for many cool after school activities that are, like the house prices, beyond the reach of blue collar riff-raff. Paradise for the Tech Worker.

Of course, to make it all work required two Silicon Valley Tech Worker incomes even back then. It means, latch-key children. One of those latch key children, a 13 year old girl, disappeared while walking alone from her middle school to her skating practice. That was three decades ago.

A recent headline in local news media remarked how the parents will never give up on their missing child.

What nobody talks about is that the parents had already given up on her, and her twin brother, when they elected to leave the kids Home Alone for their Silicon Valley Tech Worker jobs that paid for the living arrangement, (skating practice, etc).

I know, I know: one isolated case, a long time ago, etc etc.

Still, Tri-Valley, and Dublin in particular, creeps me out even now. Because I've known so many who stretched things too far to pay for their idyllic situation.
44   BayArea   2022 May 1, 1:59pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

BayArea says
tri valley


Still, Tri-Valley, and Dublin in particular, creeps me out even now. Because I've known so many who stretched things too far to pay for their idyllic situation.


What’s the alternative on a <$2M budget?
45   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 May 1, 5:09pm  

BayArea says
What’s the alternative on a <$2M budget?

Well, I suppose if a gun were put to my head to coerce me into making my kids latchkey children, no alternative than to take the bullet.

For just about every other scenario the choices we make are choices that reflect our values.
46   BayArea   2022 May 1, 8:09pm  

So your point is that the tri valley has many kids here with parents that need to both work full time to afford life here?

I grew up in rougher parts of the east bay (Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond). I’ve seen and experienced many things that I wish my kids don’t.

I was also a latchkey kid… but in Oakland, Richmond, Berkeley if you can imagine that. My parents were immigrants and for years needed to both work full time to make ends meet. Public transportation on buses and BART made for many stories.

The tri valley is paradise compared to what I grew up in. What would have been a concern about safety, crime, poor schools is transitioned to a concern about competition and pressure which kids are under here.
47   ad   2022 May 1, 8:13pm  

FJB says
You mentioned the clearness and visibility of the water there.


You can snorkel right off the white sand beach.


wp-content/blogs.dir/17/files/2010/06/Panama-City-Beach-FL-Condos-for-Sale-Homes-for-Sale-Panama-City-Beach

.
48   ad   2022 May 1, 8:21pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says
Still, Tri-Valley, and Dublin in particular, creeps me out even now. Because I've known so many who stretched things too far to pay for their idyllic situation.


Yeah, better to find cheaper living conditions like in much lower cost rural areas. Front Royal, Virginia has a large Catholic and Christian home school community. Its about 60 miles east of the Washington DC city limits. The home schooled kids attend community events such as through the churches and sports. They also take more advanced classes together at the churches such as algebra and biology.

.
49   just_passing_through   2022 May 1, 9:23pm  

BayArea says
What’s the alternative on a <$2M budget?


Move.
50   just_passing_through   2022 May 1, 9:23pm  

BayArea says
Richmond


Richmond is serious shit. Or it was in the 80s anyway.
51   just_passing_through   2022 May 1, 9:25pm  

ad says
You can snorkel right off the white sand beach.


I made it to gulf shores MS while staying in New Orleans one day, night, next morning but that was it. It was quite nice actually but clearly I should have gone further.
52   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 May 1, 9:38pm  

BayArea says
So your point is that the tri valley has many kids here with parents that need to both work full time to afford life here?

I didn't say that. You said it.


FJB says
Move.

Word.
53   Blue   2022 May 1, 10:26pm  

If recession comes in 22 or 23, someone I watched on youtube says, housing foreclosure went up already in LA-CA, Florida etc. predicts can go down 10-20% at most. He says going down to 50% is hard to imagine.
54   WookieMan   2022 May 1, 10:34pm  

ad says
You can snorkel right off the white sand beach.


wp-content/blogs.dir/17/files/2010/06/Panama-City-Beach-FL-Condos-for-Sale-Homes-for-Sale-Panama-City-Beach

My favorite in the lower 48. I'd say Orange Beach, AL to about Panama City Beach, FL is the best sand I've experienced. I've usually gone during spring break though and it tends to be rougher waters that time of year for some reason. I've been in May in my college years and I think that's the best time. Besides August to October, I think I've been down there every month at some point.

The water can get blue, but nothing beats St. John or some of the BVI's. The beaches/sand are just average, water is amazing. Lake Michigan could compete sand wise.
55   ad   2022 May 1, 11:37pm  

Blue says
If recession comes in 22 or 23, someone I watched on youtube says, housing foreclosure went up already in LA-CA, Florida etc. predicts can go down 10-20% at most. He says going down to 50% is hard to imagine.


We bought for $187,000 a new 3 bedrm, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome in 2016 about 2 miles from the beach in the Florida panhandle. I figure the fair value is about 4.5% annual appreciation of the purchase price in 2016 to 2022.

(1.045)^6 x $187,000 = $243, 523

The same townhome in my community is selling for around $300,000. I figure prices will crash and bottom to $235,000.

.
56   ad   2022 May 1, 11:39pm  

There were the same townhomes in my community (development started in 2005) that sold for $280,000 in 2007 and then crashed and sold for $130,000 in 2009.

.
57   joshuatrio   2022 May 2, 3:52am  

Yeah, I think we peaked out about 2-3 months ago. I'm starting to now see inventory hit with no offers.

Saw an open house sign yesterday on a nice mcmansion. Went in just for fun and not a single person showed up. This was in a really nice subdivision in ATL where a lot of people want to live.

Reatlor literally followed my wife and I around the place and kept talking about how it was all negotiable.

No one else showed up, except for a few neighbors who were nosy. It was dead.

A few months ago it would have sold overnight.
58   richwicks   2022 May 2, 4:15am  

Interest rates have gone up, this reduces people's borrowing abilities - it also places pressure on people already in debt especially if they have an ARM which Bernanke recommended people to get.

Increasing the interest rates also reduces the money supply, because money is actually the amount of debt that can be carried in our fucked up world. If you can borrow 10 million dollars today at 3% interest, but can only borrow 5 million next week at 6% interest, the result is $5 million dollars being removed from circulation - because it's not CASH, it's a bunch of digits in a computer.

Anything that is a debt based asset, margin calls, car loans, credit cards - they're going to contract and we've not even seen real interest rates hikes yet.

There will be QE of course, but that's not going to be extended to retail investors, BLACKROCK and other companies like it will get that. They will use the FREE money they are getting to buy up whatever they damned well please.

We're a communist nation really at this point using proxy bullshit companies to achieve it.

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