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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   540,038 views  5,026 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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4876   gabbar   2024 May 13, 11:47am  

WookieMan says

Saving money in your younger years is a thing?? No? Live frugal when young. Sock away as much as you can. There's no excuse at 68 to be broke. I don't care how much people dislike 401k's, but it's a protected asset. You can eat shit personally/job wise and keep that money and default on everything else. Compounds tax free. At 68 you could easily draw down $100k/yr and still be adding $30-50k back into the account. No kids. Taxes covered and hopefully a paid off home.

Thank you for this reminder and very sound advice for young and the old.
4877   gabbar   2024 May 13, 11:50am  

WookieMan says

My dad burned through $750k of his 401k to keep his mostly shit real estate "empire" afloat. This was the 90's. He could have just BK'd and gave the properties back and that 401k would be about $5M right now. He spent the money to keep the properties. Which he ultimately lost anyway besides a few of them.

Sorry to hear.
4878   gabbar   2024 May 13, 11:51am  

GNL says


I think this is the case anywhere you’re able to finance anything. A looong time ago, I had a 1995 Mercury Cougar (I would buy another one if I could find a low mileage one. I loved that car) and the transmission was acting up. I took it to AAMCO. I wasn’t sure I wanted to fix it and as fast as he could, the shop owner pulled out a finance option. I laughed in his face. Then I took it to another shop and they put a new gasket on the transmission housing(?) and the car ran perfectly for another 75k miles. Everyone is trying to fuck you. Best to teach your kids this fact early on.

Car repair is an trade where its easy to fudge numbers and repairs. Real estate and home repair too.
4880   HeadSet   2024 May 15, 6:32pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

This also explains how the GSEs get their funding, for those of you still confused.

You still have to acquire money before you can loan it out.
4881   AmericanKulak   2024 May 15, 11:29pm  

Been watching Palm Bay, FL for a while. A couple of months ago, there was NOTHING under $250k unless it was a Fire or a Foreclosure or a Manufactured with major issues. Speaking of which, I'm seeing a lot more foreclosures now.

Now there's a shitton of houses going under $250k and it looks like the lot-by-lot builders (not the community developers) are now at $269k.

"Starting in the $350's" billboards turned into "Starting in the $300s" on my weekly trip.

Orlando is in full reverso mode with panicking multi-fam. Tens of thousands of new units are coming onboard this year and thousands already did, and now there's a glut. Disney-proximal AirBNB Zero Lot "investors" are panicking as well.

Orlando is pretty much capped and state wide inventory is normalizing. Sanity is about to be restored.
4882   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 May 16, 1:44am  

HeadSet says

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says


This also explains how the GSEs get their funding, for those of you still confused.

You still have to acquire money before you can loan it out.


They have $5 trillion in assets collectively. They just bundle them up and sell them to investors. They then use the cash to buy more, then rinse & repeat

All of this is well documented. They have been doing this for decades. What is so hard to understand about it?
4883   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 May 21, 5:40pm  

George Gammon explains the coming disaster with the GSEs entering the second mortgage market:

https://youtu.be/Z_aB0FIouaQ?si=R-C7IVJXUtQ42NGx
4884   AD   2024 May 22, 7:21pm  



4885   GNL   2024 May 22, 7:30pm  

I predict that property taxes will, at some point, go to the moon.
4886   PeopleUnited   2024 May 22, 7:35pm  

GNL says

I predict that property taxes will, at some point, go to the moon.

As in, it will be cheaper to live on the moon than in a McMansion?
4887   HeadSet   2024 May 22, 8:17pm  

PeopleUnited says

As in, it will be cheaper to live on the moon than in a McMansion?

McMansions will become multi-family dwellings.
4888   AD   2024 May 22, 9:13pm  

HeadSet says


McMansions will become multi-family dwellings.


That is true especially on Long Island New York.

You see this in towns like in Franklin Square where at least the basement is converted to an apartment and is rented whereas the rental income covers the carrying or operating and maintenance costs like property taxes and insurance.

Not somewhat also uncommon in Florida panhandle where a 3 bedroom townhome (within 2 miles of the beach) is shared by 3 roommates.

.
4889   GNL   2024 May 22, 9:20pm  

There's a realtor on Instagram who is constantly talking about and showing DC area townhomes in the Million plus range and how renting out the basement can help you get financing. I get it but, who wants to make it one day to where you can buy a million + home but have to share it? Doesn't make sense to me.
4890   gabbar   2024 May 25, 8:23am  

One of the reasons people feel so insecure is you’ve got in the background, behind the curtain, a lot of these financial games that ultimately are making the very rich richer, and hurting America’s working and middle class. All of the people who were supplying Red Lobster, all of the people who are essentially providing services to Red Lobster, the small businesses in the communities affected by mass layoffs, they are next in line, they are experiencing the ripple effect. - Robert Reich, Former Labor Secretary

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/private-equity-rolled-red-lobster-180041614.html






4891   GNL   2024 May 25, 10:42am  

It all comes back to FIAT. Truly money for nothing.
4892   mell   2024 May 25, 1:45pm  

The above is mostly nonsense. The open border is much much much worse financially than private equity asset stripping. Total BS. You can do that as the owner of a company, no need for wall street. You pay yourself handsomely while you run the company into the ground. People who don't trust their management should work elsewhere or look into working for coops. Lastly there are laws test limit the amount of destruction you can do.to a company before being held liable. Maybe we should explore more coops, but they come with their own drawbacks. Imagine the infighting between woke and based workers who all have a stake and a vote in the company. Nothing would get done, worse than asset stripping. Plenty of CEOs making their company and employees pretty wealthy as well. There is no magic alternative form and nobody forces the owners to sell to private equity except for their own greed. The open border is where 90% of the money is wasted, from crime to free healthcare and pressure on rents, housing prices etc. Wall Street vultures have existed since Wall Street has, and yet the US had some of its most prosperous times with Wall Street.
4893   SunnyvaleCA   2024 May 25, 1:55pm  

mell says

The open border is where 90% of the money is wasted, from crime to free healthcare and pressure on rents, housing prices etc.

Worse still, the people crossing the border are a long-term problem that will get even worse with time. The current problems are nothing compared to what taxpayers will face 20 years from now.
4894   SunnyvaleCA   2024 May 25, 1:57pm  

GNL says


I predict that property taxes will, at some point, go to the moon.

People recently buying shacks in my neighborhood already have taxes to the moon. $31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft. That pales compared to the $160k/year interest on their mortgage, but still.
4895   gabbar   2024 May 25, 2:17pm  

mell says

The open border is where 90% of the money is wasted, from crime to free healthcare and pressure on rents, housing prices etc.

There is a video of Chuck Schumer out there saying that he wants to make dream of 11 million illegal migrants come true.
4896   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2024 May 25, 2:29pm  

FHFA Publishes New Product Notice for Freddie Mac Second Mortgage Proposal
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
4/16/2024
Washington, D.C. – Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) sent to the Federal Register a notice of a proposed new product from Freddie Mac to begin purchasing certain single-family closed-end second mortgages.

“The proposed activity is intended to provide homeowners with a cost-effective alternative for accessing the equity in their homes,” said FHFA Director Sandra L. Thompson. “Reviewing and considering comments from the public will be a critical component of our review as the Agency exercises its statutory responsibility to evaluate new Enterprise products.”

Freddie Mac proposes to purchase closed-end second mortgages on properties for which it already holds the first mortgage. FHFA has determined this to be a new product that merits public notice and comment about whether it is in the public interest.

FHFA invites interested parties to provide written feedback on the proposed new product. Comments may be submitted via FHFA’s website or by email to RegComments@fhfa.gov .

Once the Federal Register publishes the notice, a statutory 30-day comment period begins. After that 30-day period has ended, FHFA has a statutory 30-day period to make a final decision as to whether to approve the proposed new product.

https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Publishes-New-Product-Notice-for-Freddie-Mac-Second-Mortgage-Proposal.aspx


4897   HeadSet   2024 May 25, 8:10pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

“The proposed activity is intended to provide homeowners with a cost-effective alternative for accessing the equity in their homes,”

The only way to extract equity from a home is to sell it. What the FHFA clowns are really talking about are LOANS that must be qualified for that happen to use the house as collateral. Loans that must be paid back with interest.
4898   gabbar   2024 May 26, 4:07am  

SunnyvaleCA says


$31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft.

Which city in California is this in? I have friends who live in Corona, California. Beautiful weather most day of the year but I wonder if the taxes are worth it? Both are physicians, make good money, so money is not an issue for them.

I live in Cleveland, Ohio, weather sucks. So, good weather is valuable to me. Hope to move on from here but not sure where. I guess we will follow our kid to the city where he gets his job and decides to live, there is nothing like family, even the best weather pales in comparison.
4899   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2024 May 26, 6:50am  

HeadSet says


What the FHFA clowns are really talking about are LOANS that must be qualified for that happen to use the house as collateral. Loans that must be paid back with interest.

Yes, it serves the bankers’ interests. More loan issuance. But the homeowner? Cards maxed out, getting slayed by inflation, suck dry the equity via a second mortgage, default, lose home. Buh bye.
4900   mell   2024 May 26, 9:13am  

gabbar says

SunnyvaleCA says



$31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft.

Which city in California is this in? I have friends who live in Corona, California. Beautiful weather most day of the year but I wonder if the taxes are worth it? Both are physicians, make good money, so money is not an issue for them.

I live in Cleveland, Ohio, weather sucks. So, good weather is valuable to me. Hope to move on from here but not sure where. I guess we will follow our kid to the city where he gets his job and decides to live, there is nothing like family, even the best weather pales in comparison.

Likely Sunnyvale as the handle ;) When I moved to the bay area for the first time decades ago the highlander apartments on Iris were my first place to stay. Had a pretty hot goth/light bdsm chick who was training to become a firefighter as roommate. Ahh the memories. All you need in the south bay in your youth is a place with a pool and BBQ
4901   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 May 26, 4:33pm  

SunnyvaleCA says

People recently buying shacks in my neighborhood already have taxes to the moon. $31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft. That pales compared to the $160k/year interest on their mortgage, but still.

Sunnyvale, do you think they made a large downpayment from their RSU's?
4905   WookieMan   2024 Jun 19, 5:11am  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-begin-to-come-down-in-pandemic-boomtowns-like-austin-tampa-090042087.html

Home prices begin to come down in pandemic boomtowns like Austin, Tampa

Because most retired boomers with the ability to move did so already from northern states. Tampa is kind of shitty for Florida in my opinion. It's geezerville. Bland for FL and a bunch of dickhead New Yorkers.

I don't see Austin having a big downturn unless it's really gotten that overrun by Californians and native Texans want to get away from it. Though I think that's already happened. It's the Nashville of the South. Tourist shit hole. They already had massive homelessness 15 years ago. One of the few cities I've been to a lot in Texas for work. Haven't been in a while and no intentions to again.
4907   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Jun 19, 9:53am  

According to Melody Wright, delinquencies are now where they were in 2006.

https://youtu.be/P76tDfH1Sbg?si=TMgiXRiy3PYBgBSz
4909   GNL   2024 Jun 19, 1:31pm  

Where exactly does Brylski live?
4910   AD   2024 Jun 21, 11:08pm  

GNL says

Where exactly does Brylski live?


In a $1.1 million home in New Orleans. She says it is $15,000 a year to insure. I think that is very high rate (around 1.5% of the home (replacement) value).

In the Florida panhandle I think the insurance annual rate is 0.6% of the home value.

https://www.fox8live.com/2024/06/19/new-orleans-woman-says-soaring-insurance-forcing-her-sell-11-million-uptown-home/

.
4911   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Jun 22, 10:19am  

AD says

In a $1.1 million home in New Orleans. She says it is $15,000 a year to insure. I think that is very high rate (around 1.5% of the home (replacement) value).


Insurers are raising rates a lot, lately.
4912   GNL   2024 Jun 22, 11:06am  

I have a friend in Fort Myers Florida. He’s going without insurance on a 450k home. Last week, the floods were almost to his front door literally.

He bought it as a foreclosure right before the hurricane hit. He had no insurance at that time also. He don’t care because the home needed renovations anyway. So far, he’s dodged 2 bullets.
4913   SunnyvaleCA   2024 Jun 22, 12:40pm  

gabbar says

SunnyvaleCA says



$31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft.

Which city in California is this in?

In Sunnyvale within walking distance to Apple's new spaceship campus.
Here's a recent example: https://www.zillow.com/homes/1448-dove-lane-94087_rb/19614150_zpid/
4914   SunnyvaleCA   2024 Jun 22, 12:43pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says


SunnyvaleCA says


People recently buying shacks in my neighborhood already have taxes to the moon. $31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft. That pales compared to the $160k/year interest on their mortgage, but still.

Sunnyvale, do you think they made a large downpayment from their RSU's?


Either a large downpayment from RSUs or from their parents. I think some people think this is like earlier times when a good strategy was to buy a house when mortgage prices were high (driving down house prices), struggle with the mortgage for a few years, and finally re-finance when interest rates are low and house prices zoom. This worked out well for me when I bought in 2004; original interest rate was something like 6% and I refinanced as low as 1.875% (I had several different 5/1 ARMs over time) while the price of the house shot up 4x. On the other hand, Apple stock price has shot up 100x.
4915   ForcedTQ   2024 Jun 22, 3:19pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says


AD says


In a $1.1 million home in New Orleans. She says it is $15,000 a year to insure. I think that is very high rate (around 1.5% of the home (replacement) value).


Insurers are raising rates a lot, lately.



It’s crazy how much they have gone up, the actual rate/valuation percentage has more than doubled for us: 2017 was 0.213%, 2024 is 0.433%.

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