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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   72,475 views  1,815 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.



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894   PeopleUnited   2022 Sep 18, 8:41pm  

Would make a great place for a few refugees to live while they get their footing to start a life of labor.
895   Patrick   2022 Sep 18, 11:04pm  

stfu says

WookieMan says


If you cannot find a job right now you're a retard


Or UnVaxxed, Or both?


Not possible to be both. The unvaxxed are the smart ones, and the proof is being published every day now.
896   ad   2022 Sep 19, 12:00am  

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As far as what Booger posted a few posts ago on the condo in Salem, MA

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/225-Derby-St-UNIT-503-Salem-MA-01970/68008640_zpid/

Last sale prices were $549,000 in Mar 2005 and $415,000 in Nov 2011.

The current asking price is around $600,000. Based on 4% appreciation annually from 2011 to 2022, the estimated market value of this condo would be around $640,000.

My guess it will sell for around $550,000.

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897   cisTits   2022 Sep 19, 5:35am  

stfu says


This isn't rocket science. Inventory levels in 2005 - 2008 were at the highest levels recorded in the last 25 years. Todays levels are at the lowest


1) Not when all the new construction comes online in many markets.
2) Doesn't matter what national levels are. Housing markets are local.
898   cisTits   2022 Sep 19, 5:42am  

WookieMan says

Inventory is the FIRST metric you look at


Esp when the stats are rigged to not look at homes taken off and then back on market?
900   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 19, 8:09am  

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/19/more-homebuilders-lower-prices-sentiment-falls-for-ninth-straight-month.html

More homebuilders lower prices as sentiment falls for ninth straight month
901   GNL   2022 Sep 19, 8:17am  

zzyzzx says



Ouch, how much did you put down? Walk away sucker. Actually, how do we know this is a true situation?
903   Blue   2022 Sep 19, 8:42am  

GNL says


Ouch, how much did you put down? Walk away sucker. Actually, how do we know this is a true situation?

may not be true or bought a shack with not enough stock options. Happened to met few so far who works for that co. everyone owns multiple houses of mm$ each. The stock has been on raise all along.
904   RWSGFY   2022 Sep 19, 9:02am  

zzyzzx says




If they start growing marijuana and renting out rooms by the hour the payment should be no problemo.
905   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Sep 19, 9:41am  

Holy Freaking Cow.

I use short duration treasuries to manage the cash. (Not I-bonds, Hipsters, as there's a low limit for the purchase amount).

The brokerage notices of execution came in at annualized rate of 3.895%. I looked back one year, seen I picked up some in July of 2021 at 8 basis points.

I've reckoned for a long time that the 3 month and 6 month treasuries are reasonable proxies for interest costs that businesses including small businesses like farms pay for revolving credit to fund operations.

If my arithmetic is right, the borrowing cost for those folks has increased by a factor of about 48x from 14 months ago. Much of that increased cost will have to come out of margins for many businesses as folks will only be able to pay the higher prices for stuff like food at home, rent, utilities and medical.
906   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 19, 9:55am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

use short duration treasuries to manage the cash.

How are you doing this?
907   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Sep 19, 10:09am  

zzyzzx says

use short duration treasuries to manage the cash.

How are you doing this?

Fidelity, Vanguard, ETrade brokerage accounts broker these at no cost to the customer. No commissions, no premiums.

I get the same rates at auction at the brokerages as in my Treasury Direct account. Treasury Direct is a bit of a hassle to use as we must link it to a retail bank account. I have a few longer duration treasuries plus the ibonds there, but mostly use the accounts at the brokerages, which have a check-writing feature, for treasuries.

I don't know how the companies make money on it. Maybe they don't.
908   Eman   2022 Sep 19, 10:15am  

zzyzzx says



Let me understand this. This person bought it early this year. He was fine with everything till now. He probably got the cheapest mortgage rate too.

This is more like buyer’s remorse. Feels like he’s afraid of losing his job. Then his down payment and remodeling money will be down the toilet with a foreclosure. This is what happens when other determines his faith (his employer).
909   cisTits   2022 Sep 19, 10:39am  

zzyzzx says




Can't wait to see this fool's house to go into foreclosure.
910   Patrick   2022 Sep 19, 12:14pm  

zzyzzx says




Looks like money laundering.
911   cisTits   2022 Sep 19, 12:28pm  

Patrick says

Looks like money laundering.


Or, someone sold a neighboring house for peanuts and that skewed the average? That too could have been an act of money laundering.

About that average: Just wait until the new IRS Army starts seizing hundreds of thousands of homes.
915   ad   2022 Sep 19, 2:46pm  

From what I have seen in the past, the 30-year mortgage rate usually was around 2 to 2.5% higher than the Fed Funds rate. That's when there is stability in the economy and the Fed Funds rate is steady with no expected increases.

So technically with the Fed Funds rate now at 2.5%, then the mortgage rate should be around 5%.

The mortgage rate is around 6% now given the market expects further increases in the Fed Funds rate.

I would not be surprised if the Federal Reserve raises the Fed Funds rate to 3.5% this month, and not the expected 3.25%.

Either way, the Fed Funds rate has been below 3% since 2008. Obama had essentially 0% interest rate during almost all his Presidency.

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916   stfu   2022 Sep 19, 2:52pm  

Realtors and Mortgage Brokers are praying for a crushing job recession or they're going to starve.

They don't have a market if there's no buyers and no inventory to sell even if they had buyers. They don't care if prices are going up or down - they grift off of the transaction.

Meanwhile you've got the biggest generational cohort looking for their first home but holding off because the combination of 6% mortgage's and prices 60% higher than 2018 have them stuck paying rent until something gives.

That something has to be sellers either (a) repricing to the point where the monthly payment is affordable, (b) forced selling from a credit defaults aka 2008 or (b) COVID Vax killing off enough home owners to make a meaningful impact on inventory.

Honestly, (c) seems to be the most likely option. The potential sellers are mostly sitting on 3% mortgages and they have to live somewhere - likely they can easily afford the payments and so there will be no bubble pop. The thing that could change this overnight is if a material number of these comfortable home owners lost their jobs.
917   ad   2022 Sep 19, 3:09pm  

stfu says

The thing that could change this overnight is if a material number of these comfortable home owners lost their jobs.


Very good analysis. I see the Fed wanting housing median price to return to mid 2020 levels. Maybe it will overcorrect and drop to 2018 levels.

Stocks are way too volatile as compared to 1929, 2000 and 2008 because there is just a larger percentage of population who now day trade or invest. That is why bear markets now are shorter lived.

If there is that much job losses involving comfortable homeowners, then we would already be in a deflationary environment, which means the Fed Funds Rate likely already peaked around 4.25% and had many months of Quantitative Tightening (QT) (aka: reverse-Quantitative Easing).

Then we are back to no more than 1% for the Fed Funds Rate and Quantitative Easing.

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919   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 20, 6:59am  

Toll Brothers getting desperate:

922   cisTits   2022 Sep 20, 10:49am  

zzyzzx says




In this case, that might very much end up becoming for realz.
924   HeadSet   2022 Sep 20, 11:20am  

6.42% is still too low.
925   Blue   2022 Sep 20, 11:28am  

Unless it’s above inflation like 10% it doesn’t matter much.
928   ad   2022 Sep 20, 11:54pm  

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/housing-starts-collapse-in-single-family-permits-is-the-real-story/ar-AA122Ba5

Residential starts — including both single- and multi-family units — increased 12.2% last month to a 1.575 million annualized rate from 1.404 million in July, according to government data released Tuesday. The consensus expectation by Econoday was 1.440 million.

But applications to build declined 10% to an annualized rate of 1.517 million units in August from 1.685 million in July. The consensus expectation by Econoday was 1.621 million.

“As a general rule, when starts and permits move in opposite directions, trust the permits numbers, which lead and usually are less noisy," Shepherdson added. "The surge in headline starts was concentrated in a 31% leap in the multi-family component, lagging prior gains in permits."

....
929   ad   2022 Sep 21, 12:00am  

As far as zzyzzx post a few posts above that shows the listing price, the house can be found at: https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Phoenix/13828-N-41st-Ave-85053/home/27619549

I would price its bottom around $305,000 which is about 5% annual appreciation since it was sold in 2017. I can't see it sinking below that price.

Phoeniz along with Las Vegas and Boise is a major hot real estate market.

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931   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 21, 8:42am  

https://slate.com/business/2022/09/home-owner-personal-finance-advice.html

I Was Part of the Home-Buying Rush. I Deeply Regret It.

It seems to me like I bought a home at what was probably the peak of the market… Maybe even the same week it started to turn—when we didn’t realize it was turning from a seller’s to a buyer’s market. And, unfortunately, I don’t love the place (long story) and am not dying to be here for very long. The mortgage should be manageable if everything lines up but is higher than what would be truly comfortable.

What should I do, practically, to make sure it’s not a loss? And, more philosophically, how do I not obsess about the timing of this decision?
932   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 21, 8:43am  

Realtor recommends that parents should buy a house for their child now because they will never be able to afford one in their lifetime

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CijHdUCg9-Y/?igshid=NmNmNjAwNzg%3D

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