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short home builder stocks, or XHB
I wouldn't short anything, since losses are potentially unlimited, but buying put options on some overvalued builders (p/e > 30?) might be good.
While I'm still in the "there won't be a housing crash" camp, I have had the caveat that job loss could create forced selling and it could crash housing.
Redfin all time high was about $96 in early 2021. It may be a good bottom feed price now if you willing to hold it for at least 3 years.
I know there's some of that, but I haven't heard of RTO being on any mass scale. Do you have data to support your hypothesis?
Actuallly, the remote jobs are drying up. For now. Companies are imposing RTO orders starting next Q1/Q2 to impose both quiet layoffs and to use their office R/E they are stuck with.
San Francisco & Silicon Valley Housing Markets Puke Huge Price Drops, as Startups, Crypto, Tech, Social Media Make Total Mess
In California overall, prices dropped year-over-year, as sales collapsed, supply more than doubled. No dear, this isn’t just a seasonal dip.
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/12/19/san-francisco-silicon-valley-housing-markets-puke-huge-price-drops-as-startups-crypto-tech-social-media-make-a-total-mess/
cisTits says
San Francisco & Silicon Valley Housing Markets Puke Huge Price Drops, as Startups, Crypto, Tech, Social Media Make Total Mess
In California overall, prices dropped year-over-year, as sales collapsed, supply more than doubled. No dear, this isn’t just a seasonal dip.
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/12/19/san-francisco-silicon-valley-housing-markets-puke-huge-price-drops-as-startups-crypto-tech-social-media-make-a-total-mess/
This is good news for now but I guess it’s temporary. Gov can’t pay these interests while still printing and borrowing. It will start its tantrum for zero interest rates soon, then all bets are off. Every shack in Death Valley starts with $1m no kidding.
The PE is less than 5 for the most home builders. Interestingly, most stocks are on the raise from 2022-Nov.
There's absolutely no reason why firms have to be in SFBA.
Detroit, Pittsburgh, etc. were where they were due to easy transport of steel, iron, coal, etc. There's no reason for a company whose business is entirely on the internet to be in SFBA.
There's nothing Twitter is doing that can't be done in Hoboken or Tulsa.
"But the people". Elon laid off what, 3/4 of the workforce and Twitter is running faster and with more quality improvements than ever just a few weeks later. Car Manufacturers had no problem leaving for Tennessee or Mexico, so long as they had good transport networks, but it did take a few years. A tech company can move cheaper and faster than that, any schmuck can get on a plane and rent a furnished apartment somewhere until their furniture arrives or they buy new shit.
"Everybody wants a farm in Sicily! It's the Breadbasket of the Med!" - 500BC to ~1850AD. Now they can't give them away. ( Timed right with the implementation o...
richwicks says
I'm telling everybody, and I've said it many times before, silly con valley is the next Detroit.
I've been saying that for years as well.
High tech Detroit.
cisTits says
richwicks says
I'm telling everybody, and I've said it many times before, silly con valley is the next Detroit.
I've been saying that for years as well.
High tech Detroit.
So, you've been wrong for years? How much longer until it becomes Detroit-afied?
Offerpad to get delisted from NYSE?
https://www.inman.com/2022/11/21/nyse-threatens-to-boot-offerpad-over-plummeting-share-price/
Offerpad's stock slipped below $1 per share in late October, positioning the iBuyer to be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange, which could make it more difficult to buy and sell shares
Offerpad to get delisted from NYSE?
massive retirement of Boomers over the next ten years -- that will permanently raise interest rates all over across the board.
They have inverted demographic pyramids while ours is mostly shaped like a column.
GNL says
Why would retiring boomers cause higher rates "all across the board"?
Because retirees go from being net investors to net consumers (but not like their younger years). You are in your peak earning years (50s) you sock away large amounts of money for retirement. Then you pay nothing and start taking out. Plus, we are going to have skilled labor shortages for another 10 years or so.
This is why most of Europe and Asia are demographically fucked. They have inverted demographic pyramids while ours is mostly shaped like a column.
I'd say it's more of a rhombus
cisTits says
They have inverted demographic pyramids while ours is mostly shaped like a column.
Mother fuckers are trying to turn it into a cone.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.