patrick.net

B.A.C.A.H. says

Blue says

This is one reason I don’t like CA Prop 13 that works against young people.

Ahem, "CA Prop 13 that works against most young people.

Works for young progeny of long time California homeowners.
"

.... but only if they live in their folks' old house. Which is not what everybody really wants, especially if there are siblings.

Or if the old neighborhood has turned into little Mexico.

CA Prop 13 is a A Ponzi scheme.
Like every Ponzi scheme, it does work for some at the expense of the others!
No law is perfect but Ponzi scheme law is the worst form of the laws.

That is quite illogical. Rising property values create equity which can be tapped via HELOC to pay taxes.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

That is quite illogical. Rising property values create equity which can be tapped via HELOC to pay taxes.

This is how things work everywhere. But in CA, folks wanting to keep their equity and don’t want to pay taxes. That’s how Prop 13 came in only to ruin state with its side effects.

The_Deplorable says

Which is why it should apply only to "primary residence." But Prop 13 overstepped that goal by a longshot by applying to rentals, businesses, etc.

The better containment solution, though, would be to see how much property taxes are currently collected and make sure the total tax collected never increases by 2% each year. Then adjust everyone's tax rate to the rate that collects that amount of taxes when everyone's property is fairly assessed. Some people's takes would go up and some down. The ones whose taxes go up, by definition, has had their house increase in value massively and so therefore should be able to just have the county put a lien on the property to be collected when the owner dies. The lien thing, I believe, is already available to "seniors" here in Santa Clara County.

Maybe Prop 13 was initially passed thinking it would limit government from growing. Hahaha, I know.

GNL says

Maybe Prop 13 was initially passed thinking it would limit government from growing. Hahaha, I know.

That bit of detail is what should have been included in the proposition, for sure.

GNL says

Maybe Prop 13 was initially passed thinking it would limit government from growing. Hahaha, I know.

It was to keep government taxes low because people couldn’t afford taxes.

No one back then imagined that little 60k houses would be ballooning to millions in “value”. It’s why we need to fix all property taxes to the value from prop 13 year adding 1% per year. Would drop most people’s taxes.

I guess this means Dallas is a coastal city, according to the Housing Experts of PatNet.

GNL says

Maybe Prop 13 was initially passed thinking it would limit government from growing. Hahaha, I know.

I read a book about the origin of Prop 13. Here's what I got out of it:

- Started with the case Serrano vs Priest, in which blacks and Hispanics in California argued that they were being discriminated against because their schools were not as good as schools in white and Asian neighborhoods.

- It was decided that instead of locally funding schools, CA property taxes would all go to the state to be redistributed "fairly".

- People in rich neighborhoods did not like that because it damaged their own schools.

- Howard Jarvis, backed by business interests, decided to covertly appeal to the resentments of the rich, and publicly make the case about "people on fixed incomes being forced out of their houses by property tax". But without ever planning to limit relief to just those people. In fact, his goal all along was to get permanent property tax limits on business.

- So we ended up with Prop 13, a whopping huge gift to the biggest businesses by making everyone else pay their property taxes for them via increased sales and income taxes. But people in rich neighborhoods were also pleased with the limits on the amount they would have to pay the state to be redistributed to poor schools. And their own schools mostly recovered in quality through various private fundraising and schemes like the Mello-Roos property tax: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mello-Roos

Overall, it was an epic cluster-fuck all around. Did not improve schools in poor areas, and made the rich in California much richer.

My old boss's boss from Schwab has a house in Palo Alto that he just leaves empty. It's worth maybe $7 million now. I asked him why he doesn't rent it out to at least pay the property tax. He laughed and said "Because you pay my property tax for me!" referring to Prop 13.

One strategy for ending Prop 13: Just make a zoomable searchable map of the whole state that publishes the extremely different property tax that everyone pays. It's all public info, in theory.

Newcomers get fucked for the benefit of the old-timers. Two identical houses next to each other might pay property taxes which are wildly different.

Patrick says

One strategy for ending Prop 13: Just make a zoomable searchable map of the whole state that publishes the extremely different property tax that everyone pays. It's all public info, in theory.

Newcomers get fucked for the benefit of the old-timers. Two identical houses next to each other might pay property taxes which are wildly different.

Won't change anything. Seniority based systems always frustrate new entrants at first. But it doesn't take that long before they feel like they 'have enough time in' to switch opinions on the matter.

Remember AOC raising hell against the Seniority in the House during her first two terms? Now she's as much as a total sellout as they are. Of course, going from being a broke ass bartender to having a $30 million net worth was pretty good K-Y jelly lube for that.

Patrick says

One strategy for ending Prop 13: Just make a zoomable searchable map of the whole state that publishes the extremely different property tax that everyone pays. It's all public info, in theory.

https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/ covers some areas.

GNL says

Maybe Prop 13 was initially passed thinking it would limit government from growing. Hahaha, I know.

It was a tax revolt.

Patrick says

One strategy for ending Prop 13: Just make a zoomable searchable map of the whole state that publishes the extremely different property tax that everyone pays. It's all public info, in theory.

This is pretty easy information to get. You can check the 'tax history' on Zillow to get a rundown of taxes vs. assessed value. Most county records of tax history can be viewed online for parcels.

There are inheritors all over my hoods in both Santa Cruz and Tri Valley.

Patrick says

He laughed and said "Because you pay my property tax for me!" referring to Prop 13.

This is one reason why, understandably, people want to eat the rich.

RWSGFY says

GNL says

Maybe Prop 13 was initially passed thinking it would limit government from growing. Hahaha, I know.

It was a tax revolt.

CA needs next tax revolt that pegs everyone’s taxes to back then. It wont happen though, too many businesses live off taxes.

Ceffer says

Patrick says

One strategy for ending Prop 13: Just make a zoomable searchable map of the whole state that publishes the extremely different property tax that everyone pays. It's all public info, in theory.

This is pretty easy information to get. You can check the 'tax history' on Zillow to get a rundown of taxes vs. assessed value. Most county records of tax history can be viewed online for parcels.

There are inheritors all over my hoods in both Santa Cruz and Tri Valley.

I think what Patrick is saying is that by making a dedicated map/website that explicitly shows the unequal treatment under Prop 13, more people will become incensed by the discrimination and something might actually be done about it.

People know the tax difference. This isn’t opening anyone’s eyes. You guys need to lower taxes on the rest somehow.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/reverse-logans-run

“We thought we hit rock bottom but we keep discovering there’s more rock bottom to be had. You have a lot of people being afraid of what’s to come.”

…In Las Vegas, active listings shot up more than 38% from a year earlier while sales plunged 15%, according to Redfin data for the four weeks through July 20…

“Sellers who need to sell will make it happen,” O’Hare said. “I had a listing at $950,000. I cut it down to $799,000 and had three offers.”

Patrick says

“Sellers who need to sell will make it happen,” O’Hare said. “I had a listing at $950,000. I cut it down to $799,000 and had three offers.”

Seems like the homes that are selling in Florida have a 20% discount from all time high price in early 2022, or at least in Panama City Beach.

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AD says

Seems like the homes that are selling in Florida have a 20% discount from all time high price in early 2022, or at least in Panama City Beach

The condition of those homes with the 20% price cut should also be taken into consideration.

OTOH that pending homes chart is also showing things too upbeat. There are also record numbers of contracts that just don't work out. So the real sales numbers are really in the gutter.

Fortwaye says

People know the tax difference. This isn’t opening anyone’s eyes. You guys need to lower taxes on the rest somehow.

You might be surprised. My ancient neighbor ($1100/year) didn't seem to realize.

There are some pretty big differences in prices in my neighborhood. Check out $1113 jumping to $33,104 on change of ownership. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

Ron DeSantis mentioned trying to make Florida a no-property-tax state, which I think would make it the only one in the country.

SunnyvaleCA says

Ron DeSantis mentioned trying to make Florida a no-property-tax state, which I think would make it the only one in the country.

Politicians will do anything to keep property prices from falling.. Given the state of things in Florida, he might even try a reverse property tax. Just because something sounds like it won't work doesn't mean a politician won't try it.

Misc says

AD says

Seems like the homes that are selling in Florida have a 20% discount from all time high price in early 2022, or at least in Panama City Beach

The condition of those homes with the 20% price cut should also be taken into consideration.

OTOH that pending homes chart is also showing things too upbeat. There are also record numbers of contracts that just don't work out. So the real sales numbers are really in the gutter.

These are no more than 12 year old townhomes in at least good shape.

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MolotovCocktail says

I guess this means Dallas is a coastal city, according to the Housing Experts of PatNet.

It's 4h25m to Galveston. Thats a weekend trip to the coast. I make a drive like that up to WI every month in the summer to get on a lake because IL doesn't have good ones.

If you can go to the beach on a weekend, you're coastal. Pack Thursday night and leave at 7am Friday. Leave Sunday at 2-3pm. That's coastal. You can argue all you want about this, but this is where and why most people live in the places they do. Coastal areas. Houses are priced higher 5 hours within the coast and only get higher the closer you get. When there's a downturn they drag the national average down, but most don't feel it in the rest of the nation.

Then there's shitty cities like Minneapolis. Overbuilt Denver and Phoenix (still semi coastal, not Denver). Arkansas and Missouri are different animals. Got one user driving through them now. The value drops there are a nothing burger compared to coastal regions.

It's okay to admit you don't understand real estate. Let me know how many years you've been in the business or run a business?

SunnyvaleCA says

Fortwaye says

People know the tax difference. This isn’t opening anyone’s eyes. You guys need to lower taxes on the rest somehow.

You might be surprised. My ancient neighbor ($1100/year) didn't seem to realize.

There are some pretty big differences in prices in my neighborhood. Check out $1113 jumping to $33,104 on change of ownership. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

That’s insane, 3 million. To be fair if someone can afford 3 million to buy a house, they can afford 30k tax.

I’m still shocked by how much money people have out there paying so much.

SunnyvaleCA says

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

Crap box.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

SunnyvaleCA says

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

Crap box.

I actually went to the open house when it was for sale. Particularly interesting to me because it's the exact same house as my shack. (Well, technically it's a mirror image.) The original owner still had almost all completely original house! Pink tiles in the guest bathroom; thin plywood doors on the kitchen cabinets with black-painted wrought-iron handles! Oven and cooktop actually looked original, too, if you can believe that. It was like visiting a time-capsule. Funny enough, the buyer didn't bulldoze the whole thing. Instead if been rehabilitated ... STILL being rehabilitated after 1.5 years. It's nearly done. But can you imagine paying $3MM, followed by $300k rehabilitation, waiting nearly 2 years, and then finally moving into your not-new 1555 square foot house! Yikes.

SunnyvaleCA says

But can you imagine paying $3MM, followed by $300k rehabilitation, waiting nearly 2 years, and then finally moving into your not-new 1555 square foot house! Yikes.

I can think of a million other scenarios I'd rather find myself in.

SunnyvaleCA says

But can you imagine paying $3MM, followed by $300k rehabilitation, waiting nearly 2 years, and then finally moving into your not-new 1555 square foot house! Yikes.

$300k is insane for a rehab of 1,555sf. Our new place is $700k roughly at 2,400sf with 4,800sf total with basement. Basement, driveway, 200' of sidewalk, landscaping, lots and of course the interior and exterior shit. All new from the ground up. Not cheap builder grade stuff either. I'd love to get $3M for my house but that's retarded.

WookieMan says

But can you imagine paying $3MM, followed by $300k rehabilitation, waiting nearly 2 years, and then finally moving into your not-new 1555 square foot house! Yikes.

This is life in the Bay Area.

WookieMan says

$300k is insane for a rehab of 1,555sf.

As BACAH notes, this is California with an extra bonus cost for Bay Area. If you wanted to bulldoze, you'd pay a bundle just for the bulldozing of hazardous materials (lead paint mitigation and probably also small amounts of asbestos) and then the building permits would be expensive and slow down the works even more.

A while back there was a house that came to internet fame because it had suffered a fairly extensive fire damage but went up on Zillow "as is." It promptly sold for $xxx above asking all-cash. That got me thinking that, actually, a burned out house might allow you to skip some of the extra costs associated with bulldozing a house, so buying such a house would actually fetch a premium because it is already destroyed.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

Crap box.

Only bought because they work in Sillycon Valley. Not like its a Baby Boomer or recently retired Gen X'er vacation home in Panama City Beach.

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WookieMan says

Not cheap

You really need to stop basing your reality on Dumfuq, IL.

You do not know what the words 'not cheap' mean