patrick.net

Between Complacency and Anxiety in my opinion. Hard to tell though. These types of graphs tend to annoy me. As the economy continues to be reliant on other nations it's hard to tell what's going to happen.

We have a war in Ukraine. Chinese issues that could seriously explode and fuck up our supply chain even worse. The key is where are YOU in these cycles and did you protect yourself?

As an individual I'm optimistic about my future financial life. And that's all you can control. I know a lot of people that made a fuck ton in real estate with commissions during the bust. One guy was pulling $50-70k/mo as a Realtor. There's alway a way to make money even when shit hits the fan. You just have to figure out the niche market that will do well during a downturn. There are many. I'm young, so I'm a set and forget person since I won't need it for about 20 years still. I've got at least 2 cycles before I officially retire.

The graphic is fun, I like it.

I have a couple more for you.
The Ibbotson curve is well known.
The W5000 or Wilshire 5000 is sometimes called the “total stock market index”.

I’m annoyed that The CCP (Wuhan virus) the Democrats and a mad dictator can fuck up things.
But, the consumer is not quitting his habit of spending yet.

Where are we in the cycle?

No fucking idea.

would love Rins opinion on this matter if hes still around

We've had 40 years of continually lower interest rates. --- This has pushed asset prices up.

We have had about 40 years of continually decreasing taxes on corporations. --- This has added to the increase in stock prices.

We have had at least 40 years of increasing debt: federal, household and business. --- This gave us extra spending power.

It is possible for these trends to continue. A change in any of these trends can cause asset prices, jobs and living standards to drop dramatically.

For most if not all of our lifetimes we have lived in a utopia for investments.

The crazier shit will get, and it WILL! The more you folks will understand why I don't fuck with the stock market, and why I think 401Ks are honey traps for the American workforce to falsely live under the illusion that they are amassing some wealth for their retirement. Every ten years or so, the Forces that Be, and there's a whole fuck ton of them, will conduct a controlled demolition on the Market, and crash it all. While they scoop it all up in fire sales and never miss a beat. But it sends the American worker back to square one with their 401K.

Where as I'm old enough to remember Saving and Loans accounts, that paid out interest, when inflation happened, the interest they earned went up along with it.
As painful as the Reagan era recession and inflationary periods were, savers made out like a bandit, and Reagan had excellent FDA programs, that kept food dirt cheap.
Businesses and Entrepreneurs that took out too much debt and tried to grow to fast, when they weren't ready, got the shitty end of the stick. There was no bailouts to prop all of the losers up. No do overs and mulligans at the worker's expense.
People lost jobs, but the Small Business Administration was there to help you start your own business, provided you had an excellent business plan and knew your shit.
Small business also fared better, because the money they put in deposits were also accruing interest.

The only people who should be investing in the Stock market are the uber smarties about these matters, like many of the folks here. People that research the markets they invest in, and make decisions based on knowledge and facts, rather than ala carte menu, the HR department head gave you to mull over your 401K stock picks before the end of the day.(Which is about 90% of Americans with a work 401K) Those idiots are all doomed to lose it all.

More over your savings accounts are liquid without fines penalties and extra taxation when you withdraw it.

HunterTits says

WookieMan says

As the economy continues to be reliant on other nations it's hard to tell what's going to happen.

Our economy is not reliant on other nations much. Its a myth that the US is hooked into the global economy. Less than 10% of our GDP is in trade of goods. And most of that is with our NAFTA partners. Services is different. But we don't need those, really.

While you're likely correct, we're currently seeing tons of bull shit based off of China and supply chains. For fucks sake there's a baby formula shortage. A chip shortage for auto and likely other things. All it takes is one or two dominos to fall that we import that would take us months, if not years to ramp up domestically.

We have all the energy we need which is most important, but there are other resources and items that we outsourced to other countries not in NAFTA. Is there even an American company that makes shoes domestically? There are quite a few daily items that we just don't make here anymore. China will lock you in your own home as we've seen. You need that labor to produce stuff. That's my concern.

Services would always exist even in an apocalypse. Modern humans don't know how to survive or do anything for the most part. Most users here seem intelligent enough to be fine. You think the Jane Doe the single transgender fatty could survive or help make a computer chip? Basically it's not about having the ability to bring this stuff back domestically. Do we have the talents required for shit jobs to mass produce what we need? It could take 5 years to fill in that 10% of GDP.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

would love Rins opinion on this matter if hes still around

I think I made a whole thread on the active trading of the 'Growth' side of the market vis-a-vis buy n hold with high dividend stocks ...

https://patrick.net/post/1345315/2022-05-25-rin-has-recognized-that-the-nasdaq-is-t#last

Nobody knows nothing.

I suspect we have a few years of downside coming.

@Rin commentary requested.

Tenpoundbass says

The only people who should be investing in the Stock market are the uber smarties about these matters, like many of the folks here. People that research the markets they invest in, and make decisions based on knowledge and facts, rather than ala carte menu, the HR department head gave you to mull over your 401K stock picks before the end of the day.(Which is about 90% of Americans with a work 401K) Those idiots are all doomed to lose it all.

Here's the thing, it was setup that way.

Realize, the 'sale' of the S&P500 is the notion that one just 'buys the market'. What they don't know is that over time, the Standard & Poor have made modifications to their holdings so that it's more a growth fund (Read: Only Cap Gains [ see Meta, Tesla, Alphabet, Amzn ] ) than a value-invested (Read: Low P/E High Div [ Altria, Rio Tinto, etc] ) fund. And thus, as regular weekly paystub contributions are made, the entire index goes up soaking up everyone's W-2 savings.

End result ... yes, someday, the interest rate has to go up and then ... you see a crash.

Were you guys around in 1980?
Interest rates were through the roof then.
From my perspective interest rates are relatively low, so I still like stocks.
I’m hoping for a little more capital appreciation and then I will open the money faucet.

Picture is worth a thousand words..
https://finviz.com/published_map.ashx?t=sec&st=&f=053122&i=sec_193766023

I changed my driving habits, gas in Cleveland is $4.50 per gallon

I think we are in the 'grab your ankles an hope they use Crisco' part of the cycle.