patrick.net

Rents are probably going to go up bigly.

Yeah, if you are going to capture your fiat equity, now is the time to sell, probably a few month late even. Winter Real Estate market is going to be interesting.

I see some patnetters are saying a 20% drop at most. Well, we're almost already there it seems.

The value of her home is notional until a sale is executed.

rates go up -> prices go down.

that's not new. because no one knows where rates will end up people sell now. if rates go into double digits like they did in the past, housing will crater like Mitch McConnells prolapsed anus. (expression learned from AF on this forum)

We bought a large farm property last year. Realtor (TM) who sold it to us has started bombarding me with messages about other country properties even though I don't need the second one. I think this is out of desperation as properties are not selling like they did even a month ago, and this is in TX with people move in like crazy. BTW land prices are up twofold since we bought.

Bd6r says

We bought a large farm property last year. Realtor (TM) who sold it to us has started bombarding me with messages about other country properties even though I don't need the second one. I think this is out of desperation as properties are not selling like they did even a month ago, and this is in TX with people move in like crazy. BTW land prices are up twofold since we bought.

How long ago did you buy?

I live in an apartment in Cleveland, Ohio. When I moved to this property more than 10 years back, I used to pay $900 for a 2 bedroom apartment. Now I am paying 1500. I should have bought a small house, I didn't. In fact I signed up a contract to buy a home but them backed out because of a potentially life threatening health problem.

Looking back, maybe it was the right decision or not, I am not sure. I felt that I don't need a bigger space than 1100 square feet for my family. Life has been good, so I don't have regrets about not buying a home.

Now I hope to get another opportunity to purchase a home in the next many months. Maybe in Columbus, Ohio. I have saved up on more than a 20 percent down payment for a small home/condo (1500 square feet should be good enough).

Or I am thinking about buying a property with a granny suit that I can potentially rent out to keep mortagage payment smaller.

FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut says

housing will crater like Mitch McConnells prolapsed anus. (expression learned from AF on this forum)

I hope McConnell and Pelosi go away, but my wish wont become a reality until they are both near death.

WineHorror1 says

How long ago did you buy?

Last summer, so little less than a year ago. Prices went parabolic early this year.

Bd6r says

WineHorror1 says

How long ago did you buy?

Last summer, so a year ago. Prices went parabolic early this year.

Doubled in a year? Nope, no bubble there.

WineHorror1 says

Doubled in a year? Nope, no bubble there.

In early May nearly twice smaller property without a house on it and with no mineral rights sold for more than what we paid. It is about half a mile from us. This is complete insanity, fueled by transplants from CA and people escaping from cities.

Two canaries in the coal mine for sale in my hood in Tri Valley. Similar homes, yet one listed for 250k less than the other. Is that to induce a bidding war? I guess we'll see. So far, neither one is flying off the blocks.

They had both been purchased in 18/19 for 4-600K less than current asking.

I just got my property tax assessment for my Idaho home. 30% increase. Stupid Californians!*

*my realtor said once you get a ticket in Idaho you're no longer a Californian.

gabbar says

McConnell and Pelosi go away, but my wish wont become a reality until they are both near death.

Their near deathness started a couple years ago.

I think now is a terrible time to buy, but we're buying a house so we can get out of CA and move to TN. We love the house, the location is amazing, it's well within our means to pay for it, and we need a place to live. I'm sick of renting and watching rents skyrocket, so there you have it. Plus, renting in CA is way more $$ than owning in a primo area in TN when you consider state income taxes, and renting in the area where we're buying is only $500/cheaper than our all-in house payment will be. Just made sense for us even though it goes against all of the principles I've learned over the years and on this website.

It was ultimately a compromise to buy a home for my wife because she didn't want to leave CA, and this got her super excited about TN

porkchopexpress says

I think now is a terrible time to buy, but we're buying a house so we can get out of CA and move to TN. We love the house, the location is amazing, it's well within our means to pay for it, and we need a place to live. I'm sick of renting and watching rents skyrocket, so there you have it. Plus, renting in CA is way more $$ than owning in a primo area in TN when you consider state income taxes, and renting in the area where we're buying is only $500/cheaper than our all-in house payment will be. Just made sense for us even though it goes against all of the principles I've learned over the years and on this website.

It was ultimately a compromise to buy a home for my wife because she didn't want to leave CA, and this got her super excited about TN

I am quite happy for you. Leaving California is the real prize imo. If I remember, you have 2 young children and you needed to save them from the jab as well, correct? If so, you are a hero for your children. Kudos to you my friend.

WineHorror1 says

porkchopexpress says

I think now is a terrible time to buy, but we're buying a house so we can get out of CA and move to TN. We love the house, the location is amazing, it's well within our means to pay for it, and we need a place to live. I'm sick of renting and watching rents skyrocket, so there you have it. Plus, renting in CA is way more $$ than owning in a primo area in TN when you consider state income taxes, and renting in the area where we're buying is only $500/cheaper than our all-in house payment will be. Just made sense for us even though it goes against all of the principles I've learned over the years and on this website.

It was ultimately a compromise to buy a home for my wife because she didn't want to leave CA, and this got her super excited about TN

I am quite happy for you. Leaving California is the real prize imo. I...

Thanks man! You're close...I have a freshman and sophomore in high school, and the mandatory jab will likely go into effect next Summer. I could've delayed moving a year but then my oldest would be moving right before his senior year, and that would really suck for him. I just made the decision to move now for the benefit of the family even if home prices drop over the next year.

We are in the process of buying a farm as we speak. But only because we just sold our current house. If we weren't pushing the overinflated equity into a new property, I would straight up rent for the next 2-4 years.

Market is tanking though. We only had one offer on our house and we negotiated $70k off the farm. We live in a top school district, highly desirable area outside Atlanta.

A month ago we would have had multiple offers way over asking. We literally "only" got asking.

Remember, realtors lie when the market is hot and they lie when the market is cold. They always lie.

That’s not entirely true, some are also incompetent and they aren’t aware that what they say is wrong.

porkchopexpress says

the mandatory jab will likely go into effect next Summer.

I would hope they are done with that bullshit.

The Wuhan is a bio engineered bad cold that culls the old and sick. The Vax has proven itself unsafe and ineffective and there are a large minority (30% and growing) that would rather lose their job and have the FBI "Branch Davidian" our homes rather than let them give us or our children the jab.

Ceffer says

Two canaries in the coal mine for sale in my hood in Tri Valley. Similar homes, yet one listed for 250k less than the other. Is that to induce a bidding war? I guess we'll see. So far, neither one is flying off the blocks.

I began following Patrick's blog during the '03-'08 Housing Bubble. Too many folks in my "social/work" bubble were drinking the Cool Aid. Not all of them were drinking, but most of them were. It was nice to read the comments of others who had a different point of view.

There was a native Southern California guy with the handle surferex who bemoaned the prospect of being a lifelong renter in his own backyard as he was priced out by the Cool Aid Drinkers. But he knew the prices were insane, unsustainable, and too high for him. He shared on Patrick.net where he found some kindred spirits.

Then one day he posted for the last time, he bought a place in a coastal community of Southern California. I think that was 2007. He did not share that he won some lottery or got some RSU windfall. At the time I considered this as a Capitulation to a perceived reality of permanent unaffordability.

Buying a place to live in isn’t a terrible idea if you like the neighborhood and can afford it.

Selling it for a profit and hoping to buy again later seems like a lot of trouble.

My realtor friend in Santa Cruz is successful at it; but she and husband just sold their house ($1.4 million) and bought a place in Georgia.

But, she will rent an apartment in California so she can keep working.
Maybe she will find a way to work in Georgia.

While selling the outrageously expensive places in Santa Cruz, she decided she was not going to like being surrounded by homeless and illegals.

clambo says

My realtor friend in Santa Cruz is successful at it; but she and husband just sold their house ($1.4 million) and bought a place in Georgia.

But, she will rent an apartment in California so she can keep working.
Maybe she will find a way to work in Georgia.

Oh jeez. What is so wrong with renting for a year or two when relocating, especially if you still have one foot in the old location?

Buy! Buy! Buy!

I believe that certain very desirable areas will continue to be in demand because rich people will always have money to buy real estate, especially when the market tanks making it impossible for the average person. Location, location location

B.A.C.A.H. says

Oh jeez. What is so wrong with renting for a year or two when relocating, especially if you still have one foot in the old location?

Nothing. You outline the best strategy to give yourself a year to shop in the new location, rather than a desperation purchase of current inventory.

I am 100% behind renting in a new area for a year before buying.

At least lumber has returned to 2018 levels. Its $563 and continues to slide downward. It was +$1500 in 2021.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs

.

BayArea says

I am 100% behind renting in a new area for a year before buying.

I absolutely would advise everyone to rent before buying. I suppose if you have a bunch of little children that may prove a problem, but otherwise, it's very important that you like your neighborhood or particular street. Buying something sight unseen, via videos and photos would be something I would not do. Even apartment buildings that were practically given away in Vegas in 2011, I would physically inspect.

I totally agree with everyone’s logic. I broke these rules but I sure hope it works out. We’re moving from CA to TN and closing on a house next Friday without seeing it in person. We’ve seen tons of video and pictures, had it inspected in detail, and are trusting our realtor who has done several walkthroughs while we’ve been on FaceTime, and we’ve toured a ton of other homes with him and really do like him. Fact is my wife REALLY wanted to buy (and I do too frankly) and that was the compromise for her to leave CA and avoid the vaccine mandates for our kids, state income taxes, and all other bullshit.

With how competitive and fast moving the market has been, it was near impossible to fly out for every prospective house before making an offer and locking in a purchase agreement. So, we did it all remotely. Scary I know. This house is well beneath our means and we love it and its location is prime. Renting in that same area was about the same annual cost and we’re so goddamn sick of renting.

I’ll let you guys know if this was a success or a colossal mistake. I know I’m buying at a peak and doing so remotely which goes against all of my principles, but we live in crazy times and it meant taking crazy measures for what was best for my family, who are all SUPER excited to move to this house.

@porkchopexpress, I hope it works out perfectly for you. Good luck.

Thanks @WineHorror1 !

It's nerve racking but you'd never know unless you tried. It's often when we do the hardest things and take risks that we grow the most.

I'm just happy to see someone getting the hell out of California. That state doesn't deserve the ability to tax decent people or families.

WineHorror1 says

I'm just happy to see someone getting the hell out of California.

Unfortunately (not blaming California Patnetters, obviously) CA transplants in TX are turning parts of our Great State into shithole they left behind. A lot of Californians better stay in California and enjoy results of their voting habits.

My good buddy finally got fed up and moved hi family from Los Angeles to Dallas in what he refers to as the “pursuit of happiness”

Sold his house in LA at peak and has been house shopping for the past 3months but getting beat out on everything he bids on. He says anything desirable is multiple offer and way above asking.

He finally decided to rent for the time being and take his time, particularly with interest rates skyrocketing.