▲
2
0
▼

gold & silver prices


               
2022 Oct 16, 12:14pm   23,686 views  254 comments

by Hircus   follow (1)  

Why are gold & silver prices trending down this past half year? My simplistic understanding makes me think their value should rise during times of inflation and uncertainty. Maybe they spiked at the begginning of the year due to the war, and fears have allayed since then?



« First        Comments 210 - 249 of 254       Last »     Search these comments

210   Onvacation   @   2026 Jan 23, 10:26am  

I wonder if Iwog "backed up the truck" when silver was less than $20 per ounce.
211   Patrick   @   2026 Jan 23, 8:19pm  

At a silver spot price of $100 per troy ounce, the melt value of one silver dollar is 0.7734 × $100 = $77.34

That dollar coin used to be one dollar.
212   stereotomy   @   2026 Jan 25, 3:54pm  

Goddamn, gold broke $5K:


214   Misc   @   2026 Jan 26, 11:31am  

They're not reducing the amount of dollar reserves. Those are at an all-time high and are increasing.

What's happened is that the price of gold has more than doubled.
215   Patrick   @   2026 Jan 26, 10:26pm  

Brave AI:


Central banks worldwide are actively reducing U.S. dollar reserves and increasing gold holdings, marking a significant shift in global monetary policy. This trend, known as de-dollarization, has accelerated since 2022, particularly following Western sanctions on Russia that froze its foreign exchange reserves. In response, countries like China, Russia, India, Turkey, and several Middle Eastern nations have diversified their reserves by purchasing record amounts of gold—over 1,000 tonnes annually in recent years.

Gold's share in global foreign exchange reserves has risen from 13% in 2017 to nearly 20% by 2024, and it has now overtaken U.S. bonds as the largest foreign reserve asset, according to the World Gold Council. This shift reflects a strategic move to reduce exposure to U.S. financial sanctions and geopolitical risk. Gold is seen as a neutral, physically held asset that cannot be frozen or seized, unlike dollar-denominated assets held in Western institutions.


A result of Biden's mega fuck-up in freezing Russian assets.
216   Misc   @   2026 Jan 26, 10:38pm  

Patrick says


that cannot be frozen or seized


Didn't quite work out that way for Stalin. The first harvest season after the commies took over in the Soviet Union was an epic bust. Stalin tried to purchase grain from the UK with Russian gold, but was told they wouldn't accept Soviet gold. Mass starvation occurred in the Soviet Union. Plenty of bad blood to this day. One of the reasons Putin says that if there is a nuclear war London is the first to go.
217   ForcedTQ   @   2026 Jan 26, 10:47pm  

Patrick says


At a silver spot price of $100 per troy ounce, the melt value of one silver dollar is 0.7734 × $100 = $77.34

That dollar coin used to be one dollar.

To put that in perspective, there was a time then when 6,465 oz of silver denomination in dollars would buy the equivalent of the average $500,000 house today(and still would if physical silver)….. Pretty wild stuff, this inflation / currency devaluation is….
218   AD   @   2026 Jan 27, 1:54pm  

I think in some way Bitcoin and crypto competed with silver and gold, and explains partially why silver prices were depressed since 2012 to 2024.

Now a lot of wealth managers are recommending 3 to 5% of assets being in Bitcoin like Blackrock Bitcoin ETF.

I look at silver price manipulation being like a finger pressing down on a spring. The less manipulation means the less force of the finger against the spring.

The estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for silver from its 1980 price peak to today's price is approximately 5.45% (from $49.45 per ounce on January 18, 1980, to approximately $111.71 per ounce on January 27, 2026).

The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for inflation in the US from 1980 to early 2026 is approximately 3.02% to 3.03%.
219   AD   @   2026 Jan 27, 2:33pm  

Silver real or inflation-adjusted CAGR


220   AD   @   2026 Jan 27, 8:57pm  

Chinese Silver Fund Halts Trading as Frenzy Drives Up Premium

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-silver-fund-halts-trading-021541976.html
221   RC2006   @   2026 Jan 29, 6:51am  

I know silver has been manipulated in the past but what about gold? At the rate its moving it just hit 5k and now is moving to 6k its accelerating.
222   HeadSet   @   2026 Jan 29, 2:41pm  

RC2006 says

I know silver has been manipulated in the past but what about gold? At the rate its moving it just hit 5k and now is moving to 6k its accelerating.

If gold is being manipulated up, I suspect Ft Knox is packed to the gills with gold bars.
223   stereotomy   @   2026 Jan 29, 2:55pm  

From what I've picked up from here and there over the last several months, the Fed and the commodities dealers have been trying to manage the price of gold by having the Fed lease gold from Ft. Knox to dealers so that they can sell gold futures at low prices to keep gold down. Now all the gold has been leased out, and furthermore, the lessees won't give back the gold they've leased (technically, they're rolling over their contracts).

So Powell is correct when he says the gold is accounted for. What he isn't saying is that it's all leased out, and no one wants to give it back, so I guess they'll hold it on the books as "present."

This could be pure woo, but something has changed in the past 2 years. The big question is "why?"
224   Misc   @   2026 Jan 30, 1:17pm  

Every now and then there is a day where it is shown that fiat is far superior to having a commodity backed currency.

Like today when there was a 27% drop in the price of a commodity.
225   Misc   @   2026 Jan 30, 1:41pm  

Markets ????

Manipulated ????

Oh. heaven forbid ! ! ! !
226   stereotomy   @   2026 Jan 30, 2:02pm  

That was a pretty savage swing for gold - from a peak of $5600 down to almost $4700 before a slight recovery. If these swings continue this could be a profitable side trade.
227   Misc   @   2026 Jan 30, 7:16pm  

You gotta pity those poor fuckers in China.

They only required about 17% down on silver contracts. Imagine watching the price grenade on the American markets by 27% while your markets were closed.

There are an extra few millions of Chinese getting absolutely drunk this weekend. With that one child policy, they don't even have young girls to sell to cover the losses.
228   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   @   2026 Jan 31, 10:53am  

HeadSet says

If gold is being manipulated up, I suspect Ft Knox is packed to the gills with gold bars.


If I recall, the 1st month of Trumps 3rd term there was some huge amount of gold being transferred from the UK to the US but the UK was having trouble getting enough of it to fulfill their obligations. I think it was government to government too?
229   Misc   @   2026 Feb 3, 6:04am  

Looks like all those folks that decided to Short Silver and Gold... FAFO...like I said, watch that fucking timing ! ! !
230   stereotomy   @   2026 Feb 4, 11:40am  

"They" are currently spending what are declining resources to keep gold below the psychologically significant $5,000 price.
231   komputodo   @   2026 Feb 4, 2:19pm  

Misc says

Every now and then there is a day where it is shown that fiat is far superior to having a commodity backed currency.

how can you have a commodity backed currency when you can't exchange the currency for the commodity?
232   stereotomy   @   2026 Feb 4, 4:09pm  

stereotomy says

"They" are currently spending what are declining resources to keep gold below the psychologically significant $5,000 price.

And there it goes - the close of US markets and the opening of Asian markets - and gold is back above $5K. Too bad "they" can't operate 24/7.
233   AD   @   2026 Feb 8, 11:01am  

Coin shops say they're swimming in so much silver and gold that they're having to limit purchases

https://www.businessinsider.com/coin-shops-swimming-in-silver-gold-refineries-are-full-2026-2
234   stereotomy   @   2026 Feb 8, 12:54pm  

You'll be lucky to get 25 cents on the spot price dollar at these shops.

I read it as they are complaining that they are running out of money to buy more gold. You don't hear them saying they bought too much.
235   Onvacation   @   2026 Feb 8, 1:09pm  

AD says

Coin shops say they're swimming in so much silver and gold that they're having to limit purchases

Some shops.

There is definitely a bottleneck of people wanting to sell versus how much a coin shop CAN buy. Someone I know who runs a coin shop says the refiners only want pure silver (.999% versus .95% sterling or .90% coin silver.) He's not buying the "junk" because he cant sell it.

The refiners want pure silver right now to satisfy the industrial demand. They just melt down the pure coins and bars and mold them into industrial size bars.

The silver alloys (junk) are much harder to refine. In time they will be more in demand too.

I personally think $100 an ounce is about right considering how much it costs to mine and refine. But I have thought that for a long time. Silver price could still moonshot but I believe that is mostly speculation. If the market could truly decide price, without all of the paper derivatives weighing in, supply and demand will make an ounce of silver worth between $50 to $100.

Until the Fed prints more money...
236   AD   @   2026 Feb 8, 1:59pm  

Onvacation says

Until the Fed prints more money...


I see your point as far as industrial demand (Artificial Intelligence, solar panels, Tomahawk cruise missiles, etc) for silver. Its not just Asian consumers snatching it up.

Technically the Fed is printing money now that Quantitative Easing is over. So the Fed is in neutral status no QE or Quantitative Tightening, as it still buys US Treasuries to replace matured US Treasuries to maintain the balance sheet at around $6 trillion.
237   B.A.C.A.H.   @   2026 Feb 9, 8:10am  

AD says

Coin shops say they're swimming in so much silver and gold that they're having to limit purchases

https://www.businessinsider.com/coin-shops-swimming-in-silver-gold-refineries-are-full-2026-2


It's a bubble for gold. At peak insantiy $850 price on January 21, 1980 it traded for about 200 hours of the median US hourly wage. $5000 is about 220 today's median hourly wage.
238   stereotomy   @   2026 Feb 18, 8:44am  

This is as clear an explanation for the recent surge in PM pricing as I've come across so far. It's due to Basel III regulations coming into force in 2025 - paper gold and other speculative vehicles are now classed as essentially garbage for risk assets. There's been a frenzy to unwind short gold positions to the tune of nearly 1000 tons:

https://goldbroker.com/news/the-foretold-death-paper-gold-3528

The London Gold Pool has been suppressing the price of gold for 40 years - now they can't do it anymore.
239   Patrick   @   2026 Feb 21, 1:22pm  

What accounts for the huge drop at the end of January?


240   B.A.C.A.H.   @   2026 Feb 21, 1:34pm  

Patrick says

What accounts for the huge drop at the end of January?

Way overpriced.
241   stereotomy   @   2026 Feb 21, 3:32pm  

Patrick says


What accounts for the huge drop at the end of January?




Usually, it's the result of jacking up margin requirements for options trading. There's also that kerfuffle with a major Chinese PM platform that is still winding out.

Another datapoint for the runup is Basel III banking regulations that came into force in 2025 that effectively ended the 40 year long naked short selling of gold contracts to suppress the price of gold. Any banks still holding short positions had to close out at any price or go bankrupt.

In the last two years, close to 2000 tons of LBMA physical gold has been shipped around to settle accounts. Currently, paper/silver ratios for silver and gold are 300/1 and 100/1 - these are set to radically decrease in the coming year.
242   Onvacation   @   2026 Feb 21, 8:34pm  

Patrick says

What accounts for the huge drop at the end of January?

In my uneducated opinion, silver is just finding its real price.

In 2024 silver costs about $27 an ounce to mine.

https://agmetals.com/the-breakeven-point-of-cost-production-in-silver-mining-2024-analysis/

2024 Breakeven Costs for Leading Silver Producers
In 2024, the breakeven costs per ounce of silver for several prominent silver mining companies are as follows:

SilverCrest Metals Inc.: $18.65 per ounce
Pan American Silver Corp.: $26.45 per ounce
Fresnillo PLC: $25.40 per ounce
Hecla Mining Company: $28.28 per ounce
First Majestic Silver Corp.: $28.85 per ounce
Endeavour Silver Corp.: $29.43 per ounce

Given the breakeven points of these companies, which are significant contributors to the global silver supply, the average market breakeven point for silver production in 2024 is approximately $26.86 per ounce. This figure represents a critical benchmark for the industry, reflecting the overall cost structure that silver prices must surpass for the industry to be profitable.

For years silver miners were losing money. There has been a deficit for the last decade. Industry has demanded more than the miners could produce. The difference has been made up by melting coins, silverware, old photography film and government stockpiles. Recently demand has been rising but reserves have been all but depleted. Supply and demand.

The current high prices are just recognition of the tight supply. Some industries must have silver and without it they are out of business. Speculators are driving up the price and it might be a while before alternate supplies are tapped into. There is more than enough silver in the world if you are willing to pay the price.

I think the current ~ $80/ounce is too high, but I also expect it to go higher because of supply and demand; not to mention inflation caused by exponential sovereign debt.
243   AD   @   2026 Feb 21, 9:30pm  

Onvacation says

I think the current ~ $80/ounce is too high, but I also expect it to go higher because of supply and demand; not to mention inflation caused by exponential sovereign debt.


Yes, evidence suggests China is aggressively securing and hoarding silver, treating it as a strategic, critical resource rather than just an industrial commodity. By restricting exports, leveraging its 60–70% control of global refining, and increasing domestic imports, China is prioritizing its own solar, tech, and defense industries, reducing global supply.

Key Aspects of China's Silver Accumulation:

Export Controls: China is implementing strict export restrictions, placing silver under similar regulatory scrutiny to rare earth minerals to secure domestic supply.

Strategic Stockpiling: The country is actively accumulating physical silver to ensure supplies for its solar panel, electronics, and AI industries.

Reduced Global Supply: As a major producer and consumer, China’s hoarding has significantly tightened international supply, causing shortages in Western markets.

Industrial Demand: High demand for silver in China's rapidly growing green energy sector, especially solar manufacturing, is driving this accumulation.
244   AD   @   2026 Feb 22, 1:17am  

.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2026-02-21/end-cheap-silver

US government setting policies to create a floor for the price of silver.

The Pentagon should buy a silver mine or at least hire the silver miner as a contractor like it does with Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, etc.
245   AD   @   2026 Feb 22, 3:12pm  



246   AD   @   2026 Feb 22, 7:29pm  

Silver up 5.8% since Friday at 12:01 am Eastern, and Bitcoin down 4.2% over last 2 hours.

I think precious metals run up by the Chicoms is causing investors and traders to leave Bitcoin to join the silver price bubble.
249   stereotomy   @   2026 Mar 6, 10:43pm  

Basel III - targeted implementation July 2025 (no more fake gold futures contracts). The gift that keeps on giving.

« First        Comments 210 - 249 of 254       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   users   suggestions   gaiste