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Stonks


               
2024 Jul 6, 4:05pm   19,073 views  377 comments

by Al_Sharpton_for_President   follow (6)  

Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX)

One year return = 24.38%

If you invested $1 million in the average S&P 500 stock index fund, you'd be smoking fat cigars and doing $243,800 worth of hookers and coke.


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376   stereotomy   2025 Dec 6, 6:50am  

stfu says

I'm getting very concerned with the weight of MAG7+Nvidia in my favorite ETF's (IUSG, SCHB). I have a younger relative who codes LLM's for sub prime fintech's in the Bay area and he is adamant that AI is the biggest bubble he's seen in his life (granted he was not investing even as recently as the 2018 pullback).

I've started putting new money into (what I believe to be) a good alternative ETF called DGRO which is more focused on dividend growth (not yield) but still includes a small exposure to MAG7. I'm considering closing or at least severely downsizing my positions in IUSG and SCHB. I'm talking about a major repositioning of as much as 60% of our net worth so it's material to me.
I made this mistake in late 2007/ early 2008 and ended up regretting going conservative and lost out on big returns in 2009 - 2012.


Same boat here - dodged the 2008 clusterfuck but stayed too conservative during the 2011-2013 runup.

I've been following Finster's (from iTulip) blog Financology ever since iTulip's hibernation. He's been talking about the same thing - diversifying stock positions away from the Mag-7 while maintaining one's overall allocation to equities:

https://financology.net/2025/11/26/how-to-survive-a-bubble/

He has several ETF-based model portfolios covering various investment strategies (growth, income, capital preservation, permanent portfolio) for various portfolio sizes:

https://financology.net/model-portfolios/
377   AD   2025 Dec 6, 11:52am  

stfu says

What does the collective wisdom of the board say? Are we nervous yet?


My IRAs (rollover/traditional and Roth) are in a balanced fund arrangement, 50% investment grade bonds and 50% index funds, and I plan on keeping it the same for next 4 years as it has been for the last 5 years.

Generally the conservative rule is X% of savings in stocks whereas X is 105 minus your age.

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