patrick.net

Covid is a whole different animal. Anyone could have predicted the tariff stuff. Enough people sell off and those leveraged on stocks are screwed and the market will crash. Banks and institutions were made whole and people bought back in.

I think you need 2 quarters for an official recession. Not sure we get there to be honest. I'm not sure that anything is negative at this point with tariffs. This was an overreaction to something people didn't give time to.

Ultimately if people pay less for goods the more they can invest. If we buy less Chinese crap all the better. They're not going to be reliable in the next 5-10 years anyway. They're not going to have working age adults and have to support a lot of seniors. We've already crossed the line in the US. Boomers have already retired or will continue to work in retail or restaurants.

If you're 60 or under there will be 2-3% or record low unemployment in the US. You'll trip over a job walking down the street. The fallout of other countries is the bigger concern. China and a lot of Europe is in for a rude awakening.

Short answer: No.

Longer answer: Trump is trying to reverse, in his own way, the disastrous last 30-40 years which has hollowed out this country. Now all we have is inner city vagrants, 0.001 percenters, and the rest is a wasteland situated in flyover country aka middle America. The middle-middle class is on its last legs, the lower middle class has fallen off a cliff and is now an opiod/fentanyl addicted stay at home or is dying of "long covid" in an overheated Amazon warehouse.

Trump has taken up the mantle of the economic cast-offs. This pisses off the rent-a-riot pantifa and BLM thugs and enrages the upper middle-class acolytes of the 0.001 percenters.

Burn the whole corrupt oligarchic system down - our supposed masters turned out to be pedophile satanist pussies. MAGA baby, have gun(s), will travel.

There was a strategic move there. I know not what. My portfolio dropped quite a fleet of Hummers. It has gone up again today in the biggest single shift up I have ever seen, but is still down several Hummers.

Permanent portfolio - stocks, bonds, cash, commodities (gold, etc.)

I experienced the seesaw - some stuff down, others way up, then vice versa. One of the old-time posters from iTulip has a good macroeconomic site: financology.net.

Finster's take was this was a deflationary crash - markets tanked, the leveraged players were short dollars when the margin calls came, they had to sell everything they could to shore up their positions. That's what took down bitcoin and gold, two things that are supposedly completely uncoupled from other investments, until there is a dollar short squeeze (which happened last week).

Ceffer says

There was a strategic move there. I know not what. My portfolio dropped quite a fleet of Hummers. It has gone up again today in the biggest single shift up I have ever seen, but is still down several Hummers.

Similar here. I think today was my biggest one day "gain" ever, though it was only some recovery from recent losses.

I'm still not at all worried somehow. I think Trump is doing the right things with the economy. I will be delighted worker wages go way up before the midterms, getting Republicans several more seats. Not sure that's going to happen, but it might.

Some hopium. I doubt that the CCP part of China (Rothschild, Rockefeller) would be in on the Globalist bringdown. There is a schism in China, and the CCP have done too much shit to us with the Wuhan, fentanyl and the election fraud. Rumors are that many elements of Chinese leadership want the CCP out.

I think Trump is attempting to terrify the financial systems that he has a knob that he can twirl that will catastrophize them overnight ad hoc and at will. He wants them in terror so they fall out with each other to keep their own cookie jars full. Divide and fuck them all.