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Russia Is Totally Fucked: Blank Check Ending


               
2025 Sep 12, 1:23pm   1,645 views  65 comments

by Eric Holder   follow (5)  

How Russia’s Energy Empire Ends

About the authors: Michael S. Bernstam is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. Steven R. Rosefielde is professor of economics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Russia’s oil and gas empire is a dinosaur—big, rapacious, and dying off.

Earnings from Russia’s vast oil and gas network make up nearly half of its total export revenue and more than 30% of its budget revenue, including that needed to finance its war on Ukraine. But Western oil sanctions, the U.S. shale revolution, and an output-eager OPEC are eating away at the country’s oil and gas income. Russia’s own policy blunders aren’t helping.

Each day, U.S. shale drilling produces upward of 8 million barrels of oil and 80 billion cubic meters of natural gas—accounting for roughly 8% of global oil and more than 20% of global gas production annually. To compete for market share, the OPEC members shifted this year from tightening output to flooding the market with cheap oil. It aims to hit a 2.2 million bpd target in coming months, and ramped up production by 500,000 bpd last month alone. Oil prices dipped 2% this week after OPEC said it would likely boost production again in October.

Oil prices are in a long-term downward trend: The annual average price per barrel of benchmark Brent, which sat around $81 in 2024, is forecast to fall to $66 in 2025 and $58 in 2026. For Russia, each $10 decline per barrel represents the loss of tens of billions of dollars in potential revenue each year.

After the European Union embargoed Russian oil and the EU and the G-7 imposed the price cap on worldwide Russian oil exports, China, India, and other buyers applied their market power to extract a permanent discount off Brent of at least $11.5 per barrel. This is in addition to the forecasted decline in Brent prices of $15 per barrel in 2025 and another $8 per barrel in 2026. In all, Russian foregone revenue will add up to $69 billion in 2025 and $90 billion in 2026.

Russia’s oil and gas revenue have already fallen 20% this year when compared with a year prior. Russia’s largest oil company, the state-owned Rosneft, forecasts price declines from $45 per barrel at the end of 2025 to $43 in 2026.

This price trend cuts into the country’s gross domestic product, as prices move closer to production costs. Russian official statistics reported a 9% contraction in the first half of 2025 in the output of the natural resources category, which mainly consists of oil and gas. The International Energy Agency issued a warning in July that Russia’s oil production capacity may not be sustainable.

Saudi Arabia’s average production costs hover around $10 per barrel. Russia’s costs are $42 per barrel onshore and $44 offshore—$32 per barrel before taxes. And these are just averages. There is a large variance; many oil fields in Siberia have production costs above average. Reducing taxes could help keep production profitable, but then the Russian government would lose revenue they need to finance their war in Ukraine.

In the early days of that war, Russia committed a major policy blunder. They cut their natural gas supply in an effort to force the European Union to stop supporting Ukraine. In doing so, Russian authorities forfeited about 100 bcm of the European natural gas market. The explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines months later was inconsequential: The pipes were already inoperative.

The Russian gas blackmail ultimately failed. Pipeline gas from Norway and liquefied natural gas from the U.S. was substituted in for Russian gas. Russia likely permanently lost its market share, which fell from 45% of the EU gas imports in 2021, to 19% in 2024, to a projected 13% in 2025. In May, the EU ruled to completely phase out Russian pipeline and LNG gas supply by the end of 2027. Russia will lose forever its erstwhile 150 bcm market and forfeit $60 billion a year.

The U.S. has been trying to make this happen for decades. The Reagan administration started the work of persuading the Europeans to eschew the Russian oil and gas pipelines network and avoid energy dependency, to no avail.

Events since 2022 have delivered the U.S. that goal. The European embargo on Russian oil and Russia’s failed natural gas blackmail seems to finally be delivering European independence from Russian energy.

The most salient symbol of Russia’s diminishing oil dynasty is its 65-year-old oil pipelines network: 2,500 miles of rusting pipes from Siberia to Western Europe, idle since the European Union oil embargo, and carrying only 0.2 mbd to the landlocked Hungary and Slovakia. The broader network of Russia’s pipelines—more than 6,100 miles long—remains empty or damaged.

They epitomize the demise of the Soviet and Russian energy empire. It will never come back.

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12   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 4, 10:32am  

Eric Holder says

Russian oil exports are starting to run out of options as Ukrainian drone strikes cut deeper into the country's refining system.


Another bullshit propaganda post (which is why you refuse to provide links).
13   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 8, 10:32am  

But, but...Russia is supposed to be totally fucked!


14   RWSGFY   2025 Oct 22, 5:35pm  

WASHINGTON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday imposed Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia for the first time in his second term, targeting oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft as his frustration grows with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the war.
The U.S. Treasury Department said it was prepared to take further action as it called on Moscow to agree immediately to a ceasefire in Russia's war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022.

"Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement. "We encourage our allies to join us in and adhere to these sanctions."
The sanctions are a major policy shift for Trump, who had not put sanctions on Russia over the war and instead relied on trade measures.
15   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 22, 7:01pm  

Sanctions don't work.
16   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 23, 9:50am  

Patrick says


I really do not understand the hate for Russia.


We've been hearing that Russia has been loosing (and running out of fuel/munitions) since that start of the 2022 conflict, while paradoxically, planning to conquer Europe...!






17   Patrick   2025 Oct 23, 7:28pm  

zzyzzx says


Your Polish grandfather didn't talk to you about them?


The Poles are not fans of the Russians in the same way that the Irish are not fans of the English.

Sure, Russia and Britain are both empires with a history of crushing smaller countries, but why am I not hearing the same hate for the English?

It's like the anti-Russia programming has worked exceptionally well on some people, but not at all on others.

Eric Holder says


You don't understand the hate for evil Commie murderous war criminal pedo fucks? What's there to not understand?


That's exactly the level of hate I sincerely do not understand.

They're not commies anymore, I don't see any war crimes beyond normal war, and the pedo stuff has no evidence, just reeks of propganda.
19   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 24, 5:03am  

Every 'wonder weapon' sent against Russia (from Leopard tanks to Storm Shadow missiles) was supposed to be a 'game changer'...

20   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 24, 5:07am  

The Azov battalion promoted and whitewashed even in 'gay interest' publications.

22   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 24, 5:16am  

Short-range, unarmed Russian-made drones find their way into Poland, increasing European paranoia and calls for more escalation...




The Cult of Zelensky...

23   zzyzzx   2025 Oct 24, 6:57am  

UveBeenNudged1 says

Every 'wonder weapon' sent against Russia (from Leopard tanks to Storm Shadow missiles) was supposed to be a 'game changer'..


The quantities of these wonder weapons was woefully insufficient to be a game changer. Now if Ukraine got 2000 Tomahawks and 300 Abrams and a few hundred F-16's, that would be a game changer. And drones, while important, might not be that big of a deal if either country had a viable air force.
24   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 24, 7:46am  

zzyzzx says

UveBeenNudged1 says


Every 'wonder weapon' sent against Russia (from Leopard tanks to Storm Shadow missiles) was supposed to be a 'game changer'..


The quantities of these wonder weapons was woefully insufficient to be a game changer. Now if Ukraine got 2000 Tomahawks and 300 Abrams and a few hundred F-16's, that would be a game changer. And drones, while important, might not be that big of a deal if either country had a viable air force.

So now we've gone from types of weapons to quantities... The old: "If only we gave Ukraine everything they want...", trope, i.e.; lets just wright a blank cheque and let Western weapon stockpiles be depleted...
In more saner times, such antagonistic moves towards a nuclear superpower would have been unthinkable (especially one with almost unlimited material resources)...




25   socal2   2025 Oct 24, 7:52am  

What quantities or super weapons does Russia need to finally achieve their bare minimum goals nearly 4 years into this total shit show?
26   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 24, 8:25am  

socal2 says


What quantities or super weapons does Russia need to finally achieve their bare minimum goals nearly 4 years into this total shit show?


Again, these are just MSM/NATO talking pointes that have little basis in reality.
Russia is not the USA or Israeli, if they 'Shock & Awe' Ukraine, they'll kill many of their own people living there, and will have to deal with the resulting humanitarian crisis... The civilian death-rate is extremely low compared with other US/NATO lead conflicts...
Why rush when you have 'escalatory dominance', see NATO stockpiles depleted, and a deindustrialised Europe with increasing domestic energy prices...?
Anyone who thinks they can intimidate a nation that has nukes, Oreshniks, a world leader in hypersonic missiles, and a massive industrial capacity, needs to do a reality check.
27   socal2   2025 Oct 24, 10:51am  

UveBeenNudged1 says

Anyone who thinks they can intimidate a nation that has nukes, Oreshniks, a world leader in hypersonic missiles, and a massive industrial capacity, needs to do a reality check.


So there only threat is that they can nuke the world with their aging nuke arsenal?

The last 4 years have shown the world that Russia's conventional military is utter dogshit and Russia can't even pacify portions of their next door neighbor, let alone project any kind of dominance miles from home.
28   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 24, 11:53am  

socal2 says

UveBeenNudged1 says


Anyone who thinks they can intimidate a nation that has nukes, Oreshniks, a world leader in hypersonic missiles, and a massive industrial capacity, needs to do a reality check.


So there only threat is that they can nuke the world with their aging nuke arsenal?

The last 4 years have shown the world that Russia's conventional military is utter dogshit and Russia can't even pacify portions of their next door neighbor, let alone project any kind of dominance miles from home.


Exactly the same narrative that the MSM and NeoCon propagandists have been pushing since day one... Independent/alternative websites like this provide an opportunity to challenge the status quo, so why just parrot it?

"The ruble will turn into rubble" they said back in March 2022, after the first of many 'sanction packages'. But the facts remain that Russia is gaining ground - not loosing it. Has destroyed entire Ukraine armies, which have had to be rebuilt several times over, with over 50 nations providing military support for Ukraine... Putin has a good approval rating, unlike most Western leaders... Quality of life is improving in Russia, while infrastructure collapses in the West...

The bottom line is that supporting further military escalation means you're part of a death-cult who would sooner see the world burn than make concessions to Russia. Even without nukes, Oreshniks and hypersonics are terrifying weapons, which could even render nukes obsolete or impractical. Russia are also becoming masters of drone warfare.


29   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 24, 12:07pm  

zzyzzx says

UveBeenNudged1 says


Every 'wonder weapon' sent against Russia (from Leopard tanks to Storm Shadow missiles) was supposed to be a 'game changer'..


The quantities of these wonder weapons was woefully insufficient to be a game changer. Now if Ukraine got 2000 Tomahawks and 300 Abrams and a few hundred F-16's, that would be a game changer. And drones, while important, might not be that big of a deal if either country had a viable air force.

And who's going to pilot all those F16 etc...? They need massive maintenance. A lot of weapons shipped to Ukraine are falling into the hands of America's enemies through the black market; the whole thing sounds like a scam on the western taxpayer...
Giving weapons to Banderites is like giving hand grenades to monkeys. Blowback has already occurred.










30   stereotomy   2025 Oct 24, 2:51pm  

The West won the Cold War against USSR/Warsaw Pact. The latest Ukie kerfluffle is nothing but an attempt to humiliate Russia and destroy it.

Libtards forget that Putin wanted to join NATO but was told to fuck off.

Gorbachev agreed to German unification as long as NATO wouldn't be expanded and was verbally promised "Not a single inch further East." Lying sons of bitches . . .

The Neocon Jew descendants of the refugees from the Russian Empire want nothing less than the dissolution of Russia along the lines of the Baruch plan they drew up for Germany after WWII (didn't happen because of Iron Curtain shit, but look it up).
31   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 26, 2:20pm  

socal2 says


UveBeenNudged1 says


Anyone who thinks they can intimidate a nation that has nukes, Oreshniks, a world leader in hypersonic missiles, and a massive industrial capacity, needs to do a reality check.


So there only threat is that they can nuke the world with their aging nuke arsenal?

The last 4 years have shown the world that Russia's conventional military is utter dogshit and Russia can't even pacify portions of their next door neighbor, let alone project any kind of dominance miles from home.



More Russia is Losing news...

Pokrovsk & Kupiansk encircled by Russian forces - massive strategic victory.

Burevestnik missile tested:
"known by NATO as “Skyfall.” The missile reportedly flew 14,000 km and stayed airborne for 15 hours, showcasing what Putin calls “invincible power.” Designed to evade U.S. missile defence systems, the weapon marks a new era in strategic warfare as Moscow warns of an “overwhelming” response to U.S.-supplied Tomahawks in Ukraine. Analysts say this nuclear-powered missile could shift the balance of global deterrence and reignite a dangerous arms race between Russia and the United States."


32   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 26, 2:28pm  

zzyzzx says

Now if Ukraine got 2000 Tomahawks


Tomahawks can only be launched by ships.

The Gryphon was its land based version. Taken out of service in 1991 per Treaty compliance.
33   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 26, 2:29pm  

UveBeenNudged1 says

More Russia is Losing news...

Pokrovsk & Kupiansk encircled by Russian forces - massive strategic victory.

Burevestnik missile tested:
"known by NATO as “Skyfall.” The missile reportedly flew 14,000 km and stayed airborne for 15 hours, showcasing what Putin calls “invincible power.” Designed to evade U.S. missile defence systems, the weapon marks a new era in strategic warfare as Moscow warns of an “overwhelming” response to U.S.-supplied Tomahawks in Ukraine. Analysts say this nuclear-powered missile could shift the balance of global deterrence and reignite a dangerous arms race between Russia and the United States."



34   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 26, 2:34pm  

MolotovCocktail says

UveBeenNudged1 says


More Russia is Losing news...

Pokrovsk & Kupiansk encircled by Russian forces - massive strategic victory.

Burevestnik missile tested:
"known by NATO as “Skyfall.” The missile reportedly flew 14,000 km and stayed airborne for 15 hours, showcasing what Putin calls “invincible power.” Designed to evade U.S. missile defence systems, the weapon marks a new era in strategic warfare as Moscow warns of an “overwhelming” response to U.S.-supplied Tomahawks in Ukraine. Analysts say this nuclear-powered missile could shift the balance of global deterrence and reignite a dangerous arms race between Russia and the United States."







35   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 26, 2:37pm  

MolotovCocktail says

UveBeenNudged1 says


More Russia is Losing news...

Pokrovsk & Kupiansk encircled by Russian forces - massive strategic victory.

Burevestnik missile tested:
"known by NATO as “Skyfall.” The missile reportedly flew 14,000 km and stayed airborne for 15 hours, showcasing what Putin calls “invincible power.” Designed to evade U.S. missile defence systems, the weapon marks a new era in strategic warfare as Moscow warns of an “overwhelming” response to U.S.-supplied Tomahawks in Ukraine. Analysts say this nuclear-powered missile could shift the balance of global deterrence and reignite a dangerous arms race between Russia and the United States."







36   Eric Holder   2025 Oct 28, 4:14pm  



BRUSSELS — One of Russia's largest industrial empires will quit its international operations after being targeted by hard-hitting U.S. sanctions, as President Donald Trump steps up efforts to force the Kremlin to end its war in Ukraine.

In a statement on Monday evening, Moscow-headquartered energy giant Lukoil confirmed it had begun looking for buyers for its foreign ventures.

The decision, it said, had been taken "owing to introduction of restrictive measures against the Company and its subsidiaries by some states," forcing it to announce "its intention to sell its international assets."

A former Lukoil executive, granted anonymity to speak freely, said the move could see the company’s revenues and profits plummet by “about 30 percent,” as it is forced it to sell three refineries and around half of its roughly 5,000 petrol stations worldwide.

“Lukoil is finished,” they said.

The move comes days after the U.S. blacklisted Lukoil, as well as oil and gas firm Rosneft, in a surprise sanctions package that it said was "a result of Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine.
"
37   Eric Holder   2025 Oct 28, 4:18pm  

UveBeenNudged1 says


Pokrovsk & Kupiansk encircled by Russian forces - massive strategic victory.


Eh? Encircling couple of towns with pre-war population of less than 30K each after 2+ years of offensive is a "strategic victory" now?

PS. Especially taking into account it didn't happen. But even if it did. How any of this is "strategic"? Compare it to Donnie T killing 50% of Paper Tiger's oil exports. Now this IS strategic.
38   Eric Holder   2025 Oct 28, 4:21pm  

MolotovCocktail says

zzyzzx says


Now if Ukraine got 2000 Tomahawks


Tomahawks can only be launched by ships.

The Gryphon was its land based version. Taken out of service in 1991 per Treaty compliance.


That treaty is dead.

Meanwhile....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVSR98LK4Fg
39   Eric Holder   2025 Oct 28, 4:26pm  

“You’re four years fighting a war that should have taken a week. Are you a paper tiger?” -- Donald J. Trump, 45/47th POTUS.
40   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 29, 8:48am  

Eric Holder says

BRUSSELS — One of Russia's largest industrial empires will quit its international operations after being targeted by hard-


No source again.
41   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 29, 8:49am  

Eric Holder says

That treaty is dead.

Meanwhile....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVSR98LK4Fg


Treaty is dead but the tech to launch them from land is barely in the prototype phase.
42   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 29, 12:10pm  

Eric Holder says

“You’re four years fighting a war that should have taken a week. Are you a paper tiger?” -- Donald J. Trump, 45/47th POTUS.

Says the guy who thought he could end the conflict within the first 24 hours of his presidency....


44   socal2   2025 Oct 29, 1:11pm  

UveBeenNudged1 says

Says the guy who thought he could end the conflict within the first 24 hours of his presidency....


Imagine thinking that Russia's military isn't the world's laughing stock after 4 years of this shit show.

Russia still has less Ukrainian territory under their control than they did in the first months of the invasion and have been mired in a grinding trench conflict ever since.

But... but.... but..... they have noooooks!

Maybe send in some more Norks as cannon fodder and perhaps Iran can supply a few more drones?
45   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 29, 1:55pm  

socal2 says

UveBeenNudged1 says


Says the guy who thought he could end the conflict within the first 24 hours of his presidency....


Imagine thinking that Russia's military isn't the world's laughing stock after 4 years of this shit show.

Russia still has less Ukrainian territory under their control than they did in the first months of the invasion and have been mired in a grinding trench conflict ever since.

But... but.... but..... they have noooooks!

Maybe send in some more Norks as cannon fodder and perhaps Iran can supply a few more drones?

The Collective West only makes up about 20% of the world's population, and you'll find that the rest of the world is actually laughing at us (while being mindful that our leaders form part of a totally unhinged criminal cartel)...


46   socal2   2025 Oct 29, 2:14pm  

UveBeenNudged1 says

The Collective West only makes up about 20% of the world's population, and you'll find that the rest of the world is actually laughing at us (while being mindful that our leaders form part of a totally unhinged criminal cartel)...


Ha Ha! BRICS??

You think the Commies and Islamists that make up BRICS are laughing at Trump and the US?

No amount of your Commie agitprop memes changes the fact that Russia totally fucked up by invading Ukraine and has shown the whole world how incredibly weak and pathetic their military has become.
48   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Oct 29, 2:39pm  

Oops, that was pre-"Charlie loved me the most but Erika stole him from me, with the help of Bee Cultists!" before heel-turn Candace.

Here's a better WW3 meme:


49   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Oct 29, 2:41pm  

Dammit, let me get out of the Crazy Candace folder.




50   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 29, 2:44pm  

socal2 says


UveBeenNudged1 says


The Collective West only makes up about 20% of the world's population, and you'll find that the rest of the world is actually laughing at us (while being mindful that our leaders form part of a totally unhinged criminal cartel)...


Ha Ha! BRICS??

You think the Commies and Islamists that make up BRICS are laughing at Trump and the US?

No amount of your Commie agitprop memes changes the fact that Russia totally fucked up by invading Ukraine and has shown the whole world how incredibly weak and pathetic their military has become.


Calm down, it sounds like you've swallowed the entire insane Neocon and Atlanticist playbook...
Are you saying that Russia should have just sat back and do nothing...? Imagine if China placed its missiles in Canada, and Russia placed theirs in Mexico....
But I recon by the beginning of next year, Russian resilience and Ukraine defeat will be confirmed (if the world is still intact...). Watch this space...




51   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Oct 29, 2:53pm  

I am waiting for some Zoomer to say:

"You people over 45 have NO IDEA what it's like to live in fear of nuclear war!"

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