patrick.net

You guys don't understand what inflation it. Inflation is when your paycheck dwindles relative to costs. We have that. Iron Law of Wages implies Steel Law of Pay: lower pay with rising debts is inflation. Rising costs of food, fuel, and more without pay raises is inflation. higher unemployment despite growing population is inflation. Now, if those people worked for lower pay and prices fell then it would be deflation. That's not what is happening. Why is complex but the bottom line is Economics as a science is a century behind reality. Instead of pontificating the economists need to do real work and see what is really happening.

Inflation is when your paycheck dwindles relative to costs

My highest living costs, by far, are taxes and rent. Everything else is noise, including health insurance.

Tell me how the LL determines my rent from his costs.

Hint: the sticker on the built-in microwave says 1989 on it.

maxweber says

You guys don’t understand what inflation it. Inflation is when your paycheck dwindles relative to costs. We have that. Iron Law of Wages implies Steel Law of Pay: lower pay with rising debts is inflation. Rising costs of food, fuel, and more without pay raises is inflation. higher unemployment despite growing population is inflation. Now, if those people worked for lower pay and prices fell then it would be deflation. That’s not what is happening. Why is complex but the bottom line is Economics as a science is a century behind reality. Instead of pontificating the economists need to do real work and see what is really happening.

Actually, I do understand what inflation is--I'm not sure you do. Inflation is quite simply rising prices.

And despite what you may think--wages are already increasing. And if inflation hits, you can be sure that they will rise even faster.

Think of it this way: 41M Americans have food stamps. To them the prices might seem OK. They are not. The government is hocking their future to buy them food. The real price they are paying is inflating and fast!

I think we agree but my argument is not clear. Prices are rising in relation to personal situations. You might argue people are doing better. I don't see it. But you cannot argue the per person debt is not increasing. It is. The fully accounted financial position of every single American reflects high inflation. Extreme perhaps. Simply because you've taken on a debt you may not think you have to pay. You do. It will be paid by someone. The government taking on $T's in debt means YOU and I working Americans will pay. Either through reduced Social Security, War, and/or many other means. We'll pay. Borrowing to live better is not a good financial management strategy. Inflation is there. You are paying more for what you are getting. Much more.

Rising prices with rising salaries is not inflation. It is dollar deflation but it has closer to zero effect on the economy. Yes, it is inflation of prices but that's a meaningless statement. The only situation where inflation matters is in relation to purchasing power. This is what I mean about Economists being in the 19th century. Actually, its probably more like the 1200's. If they cannot understand basic calculations then they really are not able to give any meaningful analysis. The housing bubble and the person referenced originally provide prime examples of Economists and regular folks who fail at math and analysis.

So, we have strong inflation here. Taking on a job while your government takes on a few more $T in debt is not growth.

BTW, some people also still quote "GDP". Measuring the wrong thing is not measuring. Using terms like inflation when they have no meaning to the economy is simply playing crosswords. This is how we got in this mess. Either Greenspan and his compatriates were stupid or corrupt. I read he wrote his Ph.D. dissertation on housing bubbles so he's probably not stupid.

Don't get hogwashed by the government. Unless they fully account their debt position into their statistics then you can be assured they are manipulating everything. Just like your friend who says he's doing fine but is really running up ever higher credit card debt.

Max--

You are very difficult to have a discussion with--you ramble quite a bit. Let's try to stick to a few points at a time.

1. Inflation is defined as rising prices. You can argue that it's more useful to measure a different set of variables--fine. But it needs a new name then. Inflation is already being used.

2. We don't have strong inflation here. It's next to nothing right now.

3. The government debt is high now. It does belong to the public and at some point we will have to reduce entitlements, reduce defense, or raise taxes. Agreed.

Can we agree to that?

max, sorry, but your assertions are just too opaque.

The wage-price spiral of the 1970s was a great reset of the economy that divided pre-Boomer haves from Boomer have-nots, as asset prices rose while the debt that was used to acquire these assets remained uninflated.

The situation has calmed down since then but the buying power of a 1985 dollar has fallen to 50c today.

we have strong inflation here

My thesis is that without wage inflation there can be no net price inflation. This is because there is a whole line of rentiers taking money out of middle America's pockets, and their economic rents are entirely proportional to middle America's disposable income less necessities.

A gallon of gas could easily go to $10 in a few years, but I believe our economy will simply reconfigure itself to accept this new reality, with much of the adjustment coming out of rents and land values of the periphery.

Producer prices rise when producers refuse to lose money on producing and simply withhold creation of new goods and services. Owners of existing real estate can't stop their production, the rental unit has done been built already and the costs of making their "income property" economically available (ie rented) is minimal. This is why I believe the real estate segment of the market lacks pricing power and will get smushed should price inflation occur in energy, food, government taxes, or even health costs.

With 20% underemployment and China still working for $200/mo in wages, India working for $500/mo, I simply fail to see the bargaining position of current wage earners.

This is deflation, very similar to what Japan experienced in the 90s. Once you lose full employment, it's a race to the bottom.