patrick.net

Here is your answer.

Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Data through July 2009

Is it bouncing back?

It's a hangover from the bubble. There was a pent up supply of home buyers who didn't do careful analysis and have bought but my take on all this is that these prices are not sustainable. Forget about the charts and talk to people around you. The home i was renting would be sold because the guy is nearing retirement and can still buy a paid home somewhere else if he sells it. So is the story is about the home opposite to me, he is a teacher and is going to retire soon. So there are lot of people waiting to sell, once the reality settles in them that by waiting 2 years they are not going to gain another 100K, they'll sell it.Be patient.

Even our expertise is in Fear...
http://www.foxbusiness.com/search-results/m/27268772/yale-s-shiller-optimism-lifting-home-prices.htm#q=shiller

Good lucky all "Optimism".

Oh yeah, we're special allright. Million dollar tract houses notwithstanding eve groceries cost more here. I cannot quickly find 2008 comparison but Trust me (I'm not a Politician or used-house peddler or banker) 2008 was EVEN WORSE for Bay Area. Yeah, Special, we are (NOT). To Wit:

December 25, 2006
Here’s your Christmas gift! 20% savings on groceries!
Merry Christmas everyone! Did you get that special pack of ramen from your mortgage broker that you’ve wanted all year long? Did he splurge and give you a can of Fancy Feast instead?

Since it’s a holiday, I’m going to recycle this post from Thanksgiving – since it probably still applies.
How to save 20% on your groceries for Thanksgiving

The other title for this entry is “Zune vs iPod, Wii vs PS3, Safeway vs Safeway”. Why?

iPods are made by Apple, which is in Cupertino. PS3s are made by Sony which has a big site in North San Jose. Bay Area companies.

Zunes on the other hand are made by Microsoft in Redmond, WA. Coincidentally, Wii’s are made by Nintendo – which is also in Redmond, WA!

But these places have one thing in common: Safeway. So thanks to a reader, I thought I’d investigate to see what the difference between the Safeways are. Here’s a table comparing the prices of common Thanksgiving items:

First, we’ll start with a turkey…

Here’s a turkey in Nintendo/Microsoft land:

… and the same turkey in Sony/Apple land:

Here’s some milk in Nintendo/Microsoft land:

… and the same turkey in Sony/Apple land:

Item Bay Area Redmond Difference
Turkey $7.99 $4.00 100%
Yellow Onions $0.30 $0.15 100%
Celery $1.00 $1.00 0%
Cranberries $2.50 $2.00 25%
Oranges $1.34 $1.79 -25%
Garlic $0.50 $0.50 0%
Lemons $0.99 $0.89 11%
Green Beans $2.49 $1.79 39%
Pork Sausage $3.49 $3.19 9%
Eggs $4.75 $3.49 36%
Milk $3.49 $2.40 45%
Corn $0.79 $0.75 5%
Olive Oil $8.39 $5.39 56%
Chicken Broth $0.60 $1.09 -45%
Flour $1.00 $1.00 0%
Sugar $3.09 $2.50 24%
Ginger $1.20 $0.80 50%
Pecans $8.50 $7.40 15%
Salt $2.79 $2.99 -7%
Rosemary $2.72 $3.21 -15%
Honey $7.79 $7.01 11%
Black Olives $0.80 $0.79 1%
Green Onion $0.99 $0.79 25%
Pumpkin Pie $4.99 $5.49 -9%
Spinach $3.69 $3.29 12%
Grape Jelly $3.39 $2.23 52%
Butter $3.00 $2.50 20%
Biscuits $2.79 $2.39 17%
Tomatoes $0.63 $0.75 -16%
Orange Juice $6.59 $6.29 5%
Potatoes $3.99 $2.99 33%
Carrots $0.79 $0.79 0%
Rice $4.80 $3.85 25%
Grey Poupon $4.29 $3.29 30%
French Fries $3.99 $3.29 21%
Ketchup $3.59 $2.59 39%
Stuffing $3.21 $2.18 47%
Ham $7.49 $6.99 7%

Average difference: 20% more expensive

(Just to be clear – these were the exact same products on both sides. Same brand, same quality, same count – everything. You can verify the results easily using Safeway.com)

So now you know why the PS3 and iPod are so expensive, compared to the Wii and the Zune. Because the groceries are more expensive too.
Want to save money on your groceries? Easy! Leave the Bay Area for some place that’s not special like Seattle metro area.

Of course if you leave the the Bay Area, you’ll find that they don’t have any Chinese restaurants, Korean restaurants, Japanese restaurants, Thai restaurants, Vietnamese restaurants, gays, smart people, guacamole, tech companies, snow sports, hiking, mountains, liberals, In-n-outs, or 9 months of sun. And let’s not forget our cheap housing, amazing public schools, great roads, low taxes, and lack of traffic.

Yeah. I didn’t think you’d leave. It’s just too special here.

Happy Thanksgiving! Merry Christmas!

Fire Away. the facts are most of the time cruel when you believe otherwise. Thanks to Burbed.com for the data. And Like I said, las year was even WORSE than this report. Bay Area is Special especially if you like perpetual colonoscopies.

Thanks for the responses everyone.

javco, I remember that post from somewhere. It's chilling to say the least. Why is it that everything costs more here? How did it get that way? In who's interest is it to keep it that way?

Hi, this 54-year Bay Area born resident recently moved to Salem, OR (pop. 125,000), where everything is cheaper, where traffic is no worse than in Fremont, and where, contrary to popular myth posted here and elsewhere, it does not rain every day and there are plenty of ethnic restaurants, if you bother to open the phone book. Besides, the big city of Portland, which is equally scenic and ethnic as San Francisco (actually more so on both counts), is a mere 35 minutes away. So, no, the Bay Area is NOT special, unless you like vastly overpriced living. I paid cash for my 1200 sf, 75 year old house, and my property tax is $2485 a year, paid in advance. Oh, and did I mention there's no sales tax, so the price you see is the price you pay? Almost every day, I can see Mount Hood and Mount Jefferson from up the hill (a nice bike ride, by the way), and the undeveloped Willamette River flows lazily through the center of the city. No high rise hotels, no garbage, no bums, everything I need or want within a 15 minute drive, a big city nearby if I want theater, etc. Why did I wait so long to leave the Bay Area?

Hey Chris, I am not a big fan of the bay area, but I hope that you still feel the same way in May (I am assuming you have not been through a full winter in the PNW). I spent 7 years in the PNW and could not handle the weather. That said, I hope you can. I have relocated further south, but still in Oregon.

Oh, one more thing: (thanks to charleshughsmith.com):

bay area too expensive
It’s Search Engine Thursday.
Recently someone found this site by searching for: bay area too expensive
The answer is: Yes. And we should be thankful that it is.
Studies show that people want goals… no… they need goals to aspire to in order to have fulfilling lives.
Living in the Bay Area provides those challenges. The fact that housing here is 40% more expensive, that groceries are often 12% more expensive, and our fine 9.75% sales tax and 9.3% income tax and 1% property tax, and the fact that salaries doesn’t meet these higher level of expenses, ensure that these challenges persist.
What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, and the Bay Area produces the strongest, bravest, smartest, people in the whole world.
So yes. Let’s celebrate how expensive the Bay Area is. Otherwise, we’d be full of dumb, self loathing people, like the rest of the world.
We’re special.

Stay Safe All and everyone have a Nice Weekend (unless you and your get murdered by a deranged shooter). You're Special for being in the Bay Area.

[crossposted]
Here’s a little data point for the renters:
Apartment building with &.lt 20 units, occupancy rate has been about 62% for the last 2+ months.
Bay Area central Fortress location. Oh, yeah, we are special indeed.

Housing only crashes in price when everyone chooses or is forced to sell at once. Salaries haven't dropped in the bay area that much (yet), and people are probably still able to afford their homes. Many probably bought outright with Google/Stock funny money. The Bay Area isn't a fortress, but it's fall to normalcy will take a lot longer, and if it's drawn out a while (five, ten years) could even intersect a rising inflation line, meaning a bottom might not be very pronounced when all is said and done.

It's just like stocks. You don't actually recognize the loss until you sell... if you sell.

I think of it kind of like super-cooling. You can put pure water in a very clean container in the freezer, and get it way below freezing without it seeming to notice. It looks and acts like liquid water even though it's way below freezing - if you don't bump it too much. But give it a whack and it all turns to ice in 2 seconds. Look up "supercooled water" on You Tube for cool demos.

OK, here's the analogy: the market here doesn't seem all that different yet, but it's way below freezing, really. All it needs is a good whack, say, a 7.0 earthquake.

I'm with Patrick on this...

I know way too many homeowners who are right on the edge of bankruptcy, but desperately doubling down and holding on to their depreciating asset in the hope that happy days will somehow magically return in the spring...

One such very wealthy landowner is down tens of millions on her investments in the East Bay with piranha lawyers snapping at the rest of it. I don't even think it requires a whack actually, just a tap on the side when their credit lines finally run out...

And that's when I plan to strike...

Yes, the Bay Area is special, it is "special" in the fact that it has a big percentage of alt-A and Option ARM loans that are about to explode. I know a few people that are just barely hanging on due to one spouse getting laid off... and their loan hasn't even start to reset/recast yet.

people here have been predicting 2010-2012 ALT-A implosion of the wealthier areas, and there is every reason to believe that is still on schedule, or even ahead of schedule due to the high unemployment here in the Bay Area.

Short ans: Yes its still special, but wait until next year since many California Bay Area Asians used OptionARMs. (I'll bet you were wondering how they "did it")

http://bulletin.aarp.org/yourworld/yourhome/articles/homeownership_fell_in__asians_hit_worst.html

2010 is going to be watershed. They are already moving out of Cupertino and shutting down unprofitable businesses there.

~Misstrial

javco says

Oh yeah, we’re special allright. Million dollar tract houses notwithstanding eve groceries cost more here. I cannot quickly find 2008 comparison but Trust me (I’m not a Politician or used-house peddler or banker) 2008 was EVEN WORSE for Bay Area. Yeah, Special, we are (NOT). To Wit:
December 25, 2006
Here’s your Christmas gift! 20% savings on groceries!
Merry Christmas everyone! Did you get that special pack of ramen from your mortgage broker that you’ve wanted all year long? Did he splurge and give you a can of Fancy Feast instead?
Since it’s a holiday, I’m going to recycle this post from Thanksgiving – since it probably still applies.
How to save 20% on your groceries for Thanksgiving
The other title for this entry is “Zune vs iPod, Wii vs PS3, Safeway vs Safeway”. Why?
iPods are made by Apple, which is in Cupertino. PS3s are made by Sony which has a big site in North San Jose. Bay Area companies.
Zunes on the other hand are made by Microsoft in Redmond, WA. Coincidentally, Wii’s are made by Nintendo – which is also in Redmond, WA!
But these places have one thing in common: Safeway. So thanks to a reader, I thought I’d investigate to see what the difference between the Safeways are. Here’s a table comparing the prices of common Thanksgiving items:
First, we’ll start with a turkey…
Here’s a turkey in Nintendo/Microsoft land:
… and the same turkey in Sony/Apple land:
Here’s some milk in Nintendo/Microsoft land:
… and the same turkey in Sony/Apple land:
Item Bay Area Redmond Difference
Turkey $7.99 $4.00 100%
Yellow Onions $0.30 $0.15 100%
Celery $1.00 $1.00 0%
Cranberries $2.50 $2.00 25%
Oranges $1.34 $1.79 -25%
Garlic $0.50 $0.50 0%
Lemons $0.99 $0.89 11%
Green Beans $2.49 $1.79 39%
Pork Sausage $3.49 $3.19 9%
Eggs $4.75 $3.49 36%
Milk $3.49 $2.40 45%
Corn $0.79 $0.75 5%
Olive Oil $8.39 $5.39 56%
Chicken Broth $0.60 $1.09 -45%
Flour $1.00 $1.00 0%
Sugar $3.09 $2.50 24%
Ginger $1.20 $0.80 50%
Pecans $8.50 $7.40 15%
Salt $2.79 $2.99 -7%
Rosemary $2.72 $3.21 -15%
Honey $7.79 $7.01 11%
Black Olives $0.80 $0.79 1%
Green Onion $0.99 $0.79 25%
Pumpkin Pie $4.99 $5.49 -9%
Spinach $3.69 $3.29 12%
Grape Jelly $3.39 $2.23 52%
Butter $3.00 $2.50 20%
Biscuits $2.79 $2.39 17%
Tomatoes $0.63 $0.75 -16%
Orange Juice $6.59 $6.29 5%
Potatoes $3.99 $2.99 33%
Carrots $0.79 $0.79 0%
Rice $4.80 $3.85 25%
Grey Poupon $4.29 $3.29 30%
French Fries $3.99 $3.29 21%
Ketchup $3.59 $2.59 39%
Stuffing $3.21 $2.18 47%
Ham $7.49 $6.99 7%
Average difference: 20% more expensive
(Just to be clear – these were the exact same products on both sides. Same brand, same quality, same count – everything. You can verify the results easily using Safeway.com)
So now you know why the PS3 and iPod are so expensive, compared to the Wii and the Zune. Because the groceries are more expensive too.
Want to save money on your groceries? Easy! Leave the Bay Area for some place that’s not special like Seattle metro area.
Of course if you leave the the Bay Area, you’ll find that they don’t have any Chinese restaurants, Korean restaurants, Japanese restaurants, Thai restaurants, Vietnamese restaurants, gays, smart people, guacamole, tech companies, snow sports, hiking, mountains, liberals, In-n-outs, or 9 months of sun. And let’s not forget our cheap housing, amazing public schools, great roads, low taxes, and lack of traffic.
Yeah. I didn’t think you’d leave. It’s just too special here.
Happy Thanksgiving! Merry Christmas!
Fire Away. the facts are most of the time cruel when you believe otherwise. Thanks to Burbed.com for the data. And Like I said, las year was even WORSE than this report. Bay Area is Special especially if you like perpetual colonoscopies.

I snorted my coffee when I read this Javco... thank you for the giggle. Of course if you leave the the Bay Area, you’ll find that they don’t have any Chinese restaurants, Korean restaurants, Japanese restaurants, Thai restaurants, Vietnamese restaurants, gays, smart people, guacamole, tech companies, snow sports, hiking, mountains, liberals, In-n-outs, or 9 months of sun. And let’s not forget our cheap housing, amazing public schools, great roads, low taxes, and lack of traffic.

javco says

Oh, one more thing: (thanks to charleshughsmith.com):
bay area too expensive
It’s Search Engine Thursday.
Recently someone found this site by searching for: bay area too expensive
The answer is: Yes. And we should be thankful that it is.
Studies show that people want goals… no… they need goals to aspire to in order to have fulfilling lives.
Living in the Bay Area provides those challenges. The fact that housing here is 40% more expensive, that groceries are often 12% more expensive, and our fine 9.75% sales tax and 9.3% income tax and 1% property tax, and the fact that salaries doesn’t meet these higher level of expenses, ensure that these challenges persist.
What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, and the Bay Area produces the strongest, bravest, smartest, people in the whole world.
So yes. Let’s celebrate how expensive the Bay Area is. Otherwise, we’d be full of dumb, self loathing people, like the rest of the world.
We’re special.
Stay Safe All and everyone have a Nice Weekend (unless you and your get murdered by a deranged shooter). You’re Special for being in the Bay Area.

Ya'll are more special that us other people - I missed this post in early Nov. But now I realize that it's more expensive to live in the Bay area because it's worth it. Merry Christmas to all!